Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[RooFlyer]

Will be interesting the economic effects. Valentines Day gone, but whether other sort of spending is completely gone, or just deferred and there will be a spike over the next few days we'll see.

The spend may be there, but the fresh food and flowers that were brought in for the big day are all in the garbage or given away. Huge losses for restaurants, florists etc.

 

[jakeseven7]

ACT announces reopening to VIC (Except if you have been in an exposure site) from tonight

-------

ACT announces border reopening tonight to Victoria

From midnight tonight, the ACT is only enforcing travel restrictions on Victorians who have attended specific exposure sites listed by Victorian health authorities. All other Victorians are free to travel to the ACT without restriction.

As it happened: Victoria lockdown will lift from midnight as state records zero COVID-19 cases; AstraZeneca boss says vaccine safe for over-65s

Victoria has entered its fifth day of a ‘circuit breaker’ lockdown, and an announcement from Premier Daniel Andrews is expected later today on whether the lockdown will end at midnight.

www.theage.com.au

 

[RooFlyer]

The elephant in the room is not the nebuliser but the ventilation system in a 50yo building.

As far as the nebuliser user is concerned, it IS the elephant in the room. A proper inquiry ( ie evidence under oath) might find that they DID inform someone of it and so the head of Victoria’s hotel quarantine organisation saying there was “ no evidence ...” will be seen as, um, not correct.

But don’t hold your breath.

 

[jb747]

The elephant in the room is not the nebuliser but the ventilation system in a 50yo building. I’m roughly the same age and I know my ventilation system isn’t quite what it was 30 years ago

Without being an engineer or architect, I've stayed in a lot of hotels over the year, and often been able to look in their nooks and crannies. Basically the rooms themselves are often small structures within the larger structural elements of the hotel. The air spaces are common over many rooms/spaces, and you wouldn't consider rooms to be isolated from one another in any meaningful way. I'd see them as being almost the worst possible places for this sort of quarantine.

 

[Must...Fly!]

The infrastructure company behind the Howard Springs quarantine facility near Darwin has pitched a plan to build the Victorian government’s new quarantine village outside Melbourne in as little as four months, at a cost of up to $170 million.

A senior executive at US construction giant AECOM, Paul Clark, said a 300-bed facility could be built at Avalon or Melbourne airports for as little as $45 million to $60 million. It could be completed within four to six months, or much sooner under a streamlined building process, he said.

Howard Springs builders could get Victorian village up in four months

The company behind the Northern Territory quarantine facility says it would cost up to $170m to build a similar set-up at Avalon or Melbourne airports.

www.theage.com.au

So we wouldn't see this operational before August, realistically. Would it still be required then with a fully vaccinated population?

I'm sure AECOM aren't the only ones lining up for the government blank cheque

 

[drron]

And everyone is assuming the nebuliser is the cause of the outbreak.It is just one of the possibilities but concentrating on that rules out an in depth investigation of all other possibilities.
To me the real clanger if you believe nebuliser guy is that he was symptomatic on day 6 and asked for a test but was refused and test done on day 11.So 5 extra days to spread it around.

 

[RooFlyer]

So we wouldn't see this operational before August, realistically. Would it still be required then with a fully vaccinated population?

I think definitely. For overseas arrivals, as now. Given the approach of the states now, I can’t see a widely ( never fully) vaccinated local population would affect their grip on scaring the bejesus out of their populations and “keeping us safe”.

 

[TomVexille]

The spend may be there, but the fresh food and flowers that were brought in for the big day are all in the garbage or given away. Huge losses for restaurants, florists etc.

I believe florists stayed open

 

[dajop]

To me the real clanger if you believe nebuliser guy is that he was symptomatic on day 6 and asked for a test but was refused and test done on day 11.So 5 extra days to spread it around.

Yeh, what on earth was that staff member doing? I know we all love to blame Dan for everything, but he's been consistent in his messaging all along ... slightest symptom get a test. 99% of Victorians know that. Was it the staff member being lazy, or are the procedures deficient in that they only allow for testing at prescribed intervals and not symptomatic? If the latter then DHHS has a lot to answer for.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Yeh, what on earth was that staff member doing? I know we all love to blame Dan for everything, but he's been consistent in his messaging all along ... slightest symptom get a test. 99% of Victorians know that. Was it the staff member being lazy, or are the procedures deficient in that they only allow for testing at prescribed intervals and not symptomatic? If the latter then DHHS has a lot to answer for.

No inquiry means no answers and no explaining to do. Don't hold your breath

 

[dajop]

No inquiry means no answers and no explaining to do. Don't hold your breath

I disagree on this one all inquiries do is manage the politics, deflect blame and generate massive billable hours for lawyers. They don't come up with root causes of the problems and the fixes in the way that genuine investigations do. The moment it becomes an adversarial game, people become sparing with the truth, and the person with the weakest hand (or least amount of money to pay their lawyers) loses. It does not help to get to the real truth, when you have people prepping their answers for days beforehand to avoid blame whilst still avoiding committing perjury (or whatever you call that for an inquiry).

But if you want an inquiry ... go ahead and we'll still be in the same situation for the next 6 months and even beyond. Inquiries are political tools, nothing more, nothing less.

 

[oz_mark]

NT has fully reopened to VIC effective immediately.

Crickets from WA....

WA is planning to move VIC to low risk on Saturday (i.e. no hard border, but you have to isolate).

When the move to Very Low Risk and open the border may depend on the results of the tug of war between the premier and the CHO.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Not probably but definitely given no mystery cases or cases in people that werent already identified as close contacts. The statewide lockdown has done nothing to limit spread, its only served to damage economy and mental health. It was unecessary over reach and knee jerk reaction.

There should be an unlinked mystery case before even considering wider community/region/statewide lockdown.

There is no reason to believe the outcome would have been different if this leak happened in NSW, as NSW is just as capable (if not more so) at track n trace (has a larger contract tracing team and better record for timely contacts) and tests its HQ workers just as frequently. So would have put all close contacts into 14 days iso, and casusal contacts into iso until negative result received. Not imposing restrictions on the rest of the state wouldnt have mattered, as they were not present at any exposure event.

Seeing Professor Collignon on the news again tonight reminded me of your post! He too said there was no need for a lockdown in Victoria because there had been no mystery community transmission.

My question is - at the time the lockdown was announced - how did anyone know? There were expose sites. People could have been infected. They could have spread it on from there. It really doesn't matter if i can trace every person... by the time I get around to telling them they could have spread it into aged care or vulnerable communities.

All very good saying after the fact that there was no transmission. But if there had been, and the government had done nothing, they would have equally been 'incompetent'. I'm not sure the government can ever win?

 

[drron]

I disagree on this one all inquiries do is manage the politics, deflect blame and generate massive billable hours for lawyers. They don't come up with root causes of the problems and the fixes in the way that genuine investigations do. The moment it becomes an adversarial game, people become sparing with the truth, and the person with the weakest hand (or least amount of money to pay their lawyers) loses. It does not help to get to the real truth, when you have people prepping their answers for days beforehand to avoid blame whilst still avoiding committing perjury (or whatever you call that for an inquiry).

But if you want an inquiry ... go ahead and we'll still be in the same situation for the next 6 months and even beyond. Inquiries are political tools, nothing more, nothing less.

Though occasionally one does have the right intentions but ends up being squashed.Read up about the Morris Inquiry into Bundaberg hospital.He was definitely on the right track but the judiciary found he was biased and terminated the Inquiry.Google Politics and Proceedure in the"Dr Death" Inquiry.
Morris was ruthless in his questioning of bureaucrats.

 

[zenyattamondatta]

Seeing Professor Collignon on the news again tonight reminded me of your post! He too said there was no need for a lockdown in Victoria because there had been no mystery community transmission.

My question is - at the time the lockdown was announced - how did anyone know? There were expose sites. People could have been infected. They could have spread it on from there. It really doesn't matter if i can trace every person... by the time I get around to telling them they could have spread it into aged care or vulnerable communities.

All very good saying after the fact that there was no transmission. But if there had been, and the government had done nothing, they would have equally been 'incompetent'. I'm not sure the government can ever win?

Which is why it's at best naive that you think the government will just flick a switch as soon as we're 'fully vaccinated'.

 

[jakeseven7]

WA is planning to move VIC to low risk on Saturday (i.e. no hard border, but you have to isolate).

When the move to Very Low Risk and open the border may depend on the results of the tug of war between the premier and the CHO.

Yawn, low risk is as good as closed, they really should be moving straight away to very low risk but you know... WA time...

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Yeh, what on earth was that staff member doing? I know we all love to blame Dan for everything, but he's been consistent in his messaging all along ... slightest symptom get a test. 99% of Victorians know that. Was it the staff member being lazy, or are the procedures deficient in that they only allow for testing at prescribed intervals and not symptomatic? If the latter then DHHS has a lot to answer for.

DHHS (now DH) is not responsible for quarantine - its CQV, which has its own embedded Public Health expertise - apparently a seconded Deputy CHO

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Which is why it's at best naive that you think the government will just flick a switch as soon as we're 'fully vaccinated'.

Hopefully a good 10 month's of data from the US, UK, Europe, Israel, China and others might give us some indications. The lockdowns are only required because we have no effective preventions or treatments if the virus reaches a vulnerable population. If we're all vaccinated there may be little public support for states to close their borders.

 

[burmans]

Not sure why everyone keeps talking about “fully vaccinated”, survey came out yesterday which suggested less than 50% want to get it and then it’s only 65% effective. Full and fully effective vaccination appears to be a pipe dream at this stage.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Not sure why everyone keeps talking about “fully vaccinated”, survey came out yesterday which suggested less than 50% want to get it and then it’s only 65% effective. Full and fully effective vaccination appears to be a pipe dream at this stage.

I think 'fully vaccinated' has to mean (a) all those who want it and (b) required for anyone working in a 'high risk' environment. A bit like the flu shot... if you know the risks but are willing to accept them by not being vaccinated, that's up to you.