Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[kpc]

Not to worry the 2 most important people in SA have already been vaccinated...the Premier and CHO.

 

[jase05]

Not to worry the 2 most important people in SA have already been vaccinated...the Premier and CHO.

All of the “Three Amigos” were done on the same day. As it stands Commissioner Stevens is still the most important person in SA

 

[Anna]

How is it if Covid tests are required before boarding overseas that so many +ve tests happen on arrival?

Dunno. But in SA we are regularly told words to the effect of 'someone in hotel quarantine has tested positive but it's an old infection and it's only being added to SA records because it hasn't been counted anywhere else'. That suggests to me that what SA tests for is more than just testing for a current infection.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Dunno. But in SA we are regularly told words to the effect of 'someone in hotel quarantine has tested positive but it's an old infection and it's only being added to SA records because it hasn't been counted anywhere else'. That suggests to me that what SA tests for is more than just testing for a current infection.

The quarantine tests are normally always PCR tests which detect the presence of the virus. So they do not in themselves determine if some has had it. Though sometimes someone who is no longer infectious may have virus fragments dislodges and cause a weak positive PCR result. Other testing will normally be able to confirm that.

Whereas the Antibody (serology) test detects if you’ve had an immune response (antibodies) to the virus. This means that you’ve had the virus and your body (immune system, specifically antibodies) has mounted an attack to fight it. If a weak positive result on a PCR test occurs they may do this test to see if the person has had CV19, but has recovered.

What is a PCR test?​

A polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test is performed to detect genetic material from a specific organism, such as a virus. The test detects the presence of a virus if you are infected at the time of the test. The test could also detect fragments of virus even after you are no longer infected.

What is a COVID-19 PCR test?​

A PCR test for COVID-19 is a test used to diagnosis people who are currently infected with SARS-CoV-2, which is the coronavirus that causes COVID-19. The PCR test is the “gold standard” test for diagnosing COVID-19 because it’s the most accurate and reliable test.

How does the COVID-19 PCR test compare with other available COVID-19 tests?​

Basically, there are two types of tests, diagnostic tests and antibody tests. Diagnostic tests tell you if you have an active (current) COVID-19 infection. Antibody tests tell you that you already had COVID-19.

Diagnostic tests:

• PCR test: This tests for the presence of the actual virus’s genetic material or its fragments as it breaks down. This is the most reliable and accurate test for detecting active infection.
• Antigen test: This test detects bits of proteins on the surface of the virus called antigens. Antigen tests are typically considered rapid, taking only 15 to 30 minutes but are less accurate than a PCR test. Rapid antigen tests are most accurate when used within a few days of the start of your symptoms, which is when the largest amount of virus is present in your body. Because this test is not as accurate as a PCR test, if an antigen test is negative, your healthcare provider may order a PCR test to confirm the negative test result.

Antibody test:

• Antibody (serology) test: This tests detects if you’ve had an immune response (antibodies) to the virus. This means that you’ve had the virus and your body (immune system, specifically antibodies) has mounted an attack to fight it. The test is detecting those antibodies. It typically takes about a week after being infected for enough antibodies to develop to be detected in your blood. For this reason, this test shouldn’t be used to diagnose an active infection.

PCR Test for COVID-19: What it Is, How its Done, What the Results Mean

The PCR test for COVID-19 is the gold standard test to determine if you are infected with the virus that causes COVID-19.

my.clevelandclinic.org

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

How is it if Covid tests are required before boarding overseas that so many +ve tests happen on arrival?

I'd hate to speculate, but what?

It was my impression that pre-tests were PCR tests. So on that basis, a subsequent positive represents the incubation period.

Other possibilities could include fraudulent test results, false negative. There probably are other possibilities/reasons as well.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

It was my impression that pre-tests were PCR tests. So on that basis, a subsequent positive represents the incubation period.

Other possibilities could include fraudulent test results, false negative. There probably are other possibilities/reasons as well.

• Or catching it off aircrew.
• Test I think is 3 days prior. So can be infected but yet not positive at time of test. So say maybe 6 days to be infected before flying including catching it at the airport. For example in USA they might take a long domestic flight first to get to the departing airport....

 

[jakeseven7]

The very high testing numbers continue.

The 2 cases are primary contacts of already known cases and have been quarantining, so as expected as some of the primary cases are in their day 11-14.

Thankfully no ammunition for our trigger happy premiers and border openings will not be affected so everyone remain CALM

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The 2 cases are primary contacts of already known cases and have been quarantining, so as expected as some of the primary cases are in their day 11-14.

Thankfully no ammunition for our trigger happy premiers and border openings will not be affected so everyone remain CALM

= as you say, don't panic.

This is just an example of a good system working well.




Again this just emphasises why the two ring method works well. It gets people who may become infectious into quarantine before they can infect anyone. It cuts off the transmission chains before they can grow, and in particular prevents unknown community transmission which is where the real risk lies.

These two cases may well be people quarantining with a case, and if so can become infected well after the first person became infected.

 

[Pushka]

View attachment 242237

The very high testing numbers continue.

The 2 cases are primary contacts of already known cases and have been quarantining, so as expected as some of the primary cases are in their day 11-14.

Thankfully no ammunition for our trigger happy premiers and border openings will not be affected so everyone remain CALM

That's a long incubation period?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

That's a long incubation period?

These new strains seem to have longer incubation periods. Personally that is why I tend to believe they are more transmissible (ie not higher viral loads, but just because people stay infectious for longer and that can infect more people = higher Ro)

However if the two new cases were living with a case (quarantining together), they could have been infected much later than the person who infected them.

 

[Pushka]

These new strains seem to have longer incubation periods. Personally that is why I tend to believe they are more transmissible (ie not higher viral loads, but just because people stay infectious for longer and that can infect more people = higher Ro)

However if the two new cases were living with a case (quarantining together), they could have been infected much later than the person who infected them.

Ok I thought it was the opposite - that people infected others almost as soon as they became infected and had therefore spread it unknowingly. Maybe that's politicians panic speech - certainly was here in SA.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I remember watching Chris Cuomo the CNN journalist who caught CV19 and was doing his show from his basement while he recovered.

He was a "long-hauler" and remained positive and symptomatic for an extensive time period.

He tested positive on March 31, 2020. His wife and children quarantined upstairs from him, but brought him food etc but without close contact.


His wife tested positive on April 15
His 14 year old son tested positive on April 21 or 22

So if quarantining together it can take a little while for the virus to ripple through the people in the quarantined household.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Ok I thought it was the opposite - that people infected others almost as soon as they became infected and had therefore spread it unknowingly. Maybe that's politicians panic speech - certainly was here in SA.

Let me rephrase it a little.

My understanding is that with the new strain that people can remain infectious for a longer total time period. They may also become infectious earlier. However people are different and how quickly any one individual becomes infectious, after having become infected, varies.

Also with all strains people are not all equally infectious. Some (the small minority) will generate large viral loads, but most generate much lower viral loads. So most cases come from few people.

We have seen cases both here and in NZ where people with the new strains become positive well after exposure. So some with the new strain definitely do not become positive quickly.

 

[jakeseven7]

That's a long incubation period?

Thats why all of this clamour for day 16- up to 21 testing from the states as well I guess especially when the primary case may have a low viral load and may not infect day 1 (although we were all sold the MUTANT INFECTION SPREADS SO QUICKLY story very well I'm not surprised some people are confused)...

 

[Pushka]

Let me rephrase it a little.

My understanding is that with the new strain that people can remain infectious for a longer total time period. They may also become infectious earlier. However people are different and how quickly any one individual becomes infectious, after having become infected, varies.

Also with all strains people are not all equally infectious. Some (the small minority) will generate large viral loads, but most generate much lower viral loads. So most cases come from few people.

We have seen cases both here and in NZ where people with the new strains become positive well after exposure. So some with the new strain definitely do not become positive quickly.

Ah. That makes sense. Thanks.

 

[NM]

That's a long incubation period?

People in quarantine are generally not tested daily. If they are generally asymptomatic then they may not be tested for several days. So the time to be identified is not necessarily the same as the incubation period.

 

[Pushka]

People in quarantine are generally not tested daily. If they are generally asymptomatic then they may not be tested for several days. So the time to be identified is not necessarily the same as the incubation period.

Sure. But today is day 15? So usually majority return positive by around day 12 of exposure so it’s strange to have two today.

 

[Lynda2475]

Sure. But today is day 15? So usually majority return positive by around day 12 of exposure so it’s strange to have two today.

Today's two were likely not exposed 15 days ago at a workplace or at that private event, but rather since then iin their own home , especially if doing iso at home with someone who did catch it 15 days ago.

People who were at a primary exposure site should iso in a different location, to their other household members who werent at the pimary transmission event, to lessen chances of further spread. Locking down secondary and tertiary contacts with close primary contacts creates more cases, whilst they are out of comunity they are avoidable, as the close contact was unlikely to be contagious when identified as a close contact.

The hotel worker with the false negative was the one who spread the virus at the private event. As soon as her positive came through all the people at event were told to test and do 14 days iso at home. At that point (a day after the event) it was unlikely the other guests were infectious yet. If those exposed guests live with other people who werent at the event, it would have been smarter for the ones who werent there to iso in a different house. If you are in a common household its pretty hard to avoid contact and shared ventilation.

If contract tracers meet 24hr goal for close contacts, then families can make arrangements to iso separately and limit household spread, should the perosn who was exposed go on to get covid some days later.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Two latest cases have yet to be added to the diagram below. How they exactly fit in relationship wise is not yet known, other than:

The Department of Health said both cases were primary contacts of pre-existing cases and have been quarantining during their infectious period.​

​

A state government spokeswoman later confirmed both people were connected to the Holiday Inn cluster, bringing the number of cases linked to the hotel quarantine outbreak to 24.​

They may or may not have been quarantining with a positive case for example.

But as seen below this outbreak was contained well and contact tracing worked by the important measure of rapidly getting the most likely of any potential cases into quarantine before they become infectious and able to transmit the virus. The second ring method means that the exposure site will rapidly escalate the total number of people who need to be contact, but the vast majority of those will have had contact such that transmission is extremely unlikely.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I think the National benchmark for getting in touch with close contacts identified by the positive case is 48 hours