Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[drron]

And a total of only 23 cases in hospital around Australia.But that includes 2 in hospital in Tasmania but those 2 remain in hospital because of their co morbidities and no longer in a Covid ward.Wonder how many of the others are the same.

 

[moa999]

Some suggestions also that one of the Sydney school cases last week may have been a false positive after a flu shot

Parents urged to stick by health guidelines after school evacuations

The Waverley College student whose positive COVID-19 test caused the temporary closure of his school no longer had symptoms when his test returned positive.

www.smh.com.au

 

[Pushka]

And a total of only 23 cases in hospital around Australia.But that includes 2 in hospital in Tasmania but those 2 remain in hospital because of their co morbidities and no longer in a Covid ward.Wonder how many of the others are the same.

The long term people in SA were similar. Recovered from the virus and negative but not well enough to leave. But have gone home now.

 

[N860CR]

So it seems like the 30 year old from Queensland didn't contract Covid after all.

There is something seriously laughable about a“pandemic” where we are having debates about individuals who may or may not have died from said virus.

It would be absolutely hilarious... if only the entire country weren’t being destroyed from it.

 

[Pushka]

There is something seriously laughable about a“pandemic” where we are having debates about individuals who may or may not have died from said virus.

It would be absolutely hilarious... if only the entire country weren’t being destroyed from it.

I understand. The young person not having Covid is significant to me as I got an emotion based lecture last week from Nurse SIL when I suggested that the borders within Australia be opened as the risk was now so low and we have to learn to manage this virus better . She then told me, as an emotional hook, (because she knows I'd do anything for my kids and grandchild) that it can kill young people too, citing this young man. I explained he had co morbidities as well which she brushed off rather dismissively.

Trouble is, that we know what happened pretty much everywhere else in the world that didn't take such drastic actions and we are talking of tens of thousands of deaths. Vietnam likewise shut down early and they too had remarkable results. As did Taiwan who knew their Chinese neighbours too well to know they were not being honest. Their borders were shut almost as soon as the whisper came as they had experience with SARS.

Sweden, which didn't shut down, still had a very significant death toll but more importantly, their economy is also now in the toilet. And their neighbours are closing their borders from them.

So in effect, it didn't matter what the government did in terms of the Economy. They all tanked. The difference is in the death toll. So try keep that in mind.

 

[N860CR]

I understand. The young person not having Covid is significant to me as I got an emotion based lecture last week from Nurse SIL when I suggested that the borders within Australia be opened as the risk was now so low and we have to learn to manage this virus better . She then told me, as an emotional hook, (because she knows I'd do anything for my kids and grandchild) that it can kill young people too, citing this young man. I explained he had co morbidities as well which she brushed off rather dismissively

That is interesting. The majority of my friends along with my spouse are medical professionals and I’m yet to come across one who has a significant concern about the virus itself versus the other impacts of this.

So in effect, it didn't matter what the government did in terms of the Economy. They all tanked. The difference is in the death toll. So try keep that in mind.

Agree, and I was fairly supportive of the measures initially taken. The issue has now past, however, and it’s time to get back to work. Unlike a lot of the world, australia is largely able to fully function independently, so we now need to hurry up and do that.

The fact that we’ve had “breaking news” reports of each nursing home death, and now numerous cases of public debate about individuals maybe being killed by the virus really cements that we’ve run out of any genuine need for panic.

 

[dajop]

There is reporting out the morning in Fairfax from a single study, conducted in NSW that is leading to a conclusion that " Coronavirus could become a seasonal disease, with people at greater risk of contracting it during winter, as the humidity drops."

When it comes to climate, we found that lower humidity is the main driver here, rather than colder temperatures. It means we may see an increased risk in winter here, when we have a drop in humidity."

This is the sort of shoddy, poor quality journalism that annoys me. No links or closer analysis of the study (what are the other factors that could compound this?). And worse I read it in the Melbourne Age. The humidity does not drop in the winter in Melbourne ... Climate statistics for Australian locations . Sure, run the story on the SMH website, but don't assume Sydney = Australia.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

There is reporting out the morning in Fairfax from a single study, conducted in NSW that is leading to a conclusion that " Coronavirus could become a seasonal disease, with people at greater risk of contracting it during winter, as the humidity drops."



This is the sort of shoddy, poor quality journalism that annoys me. No links or closer analysis of the study (what are the other factors that could compound this?). And worse I read it in the Melbourne Age. The humidity does not drop in the winter in Melbourne ... Climate statistics for Australian locations . Sure, run the story on the SMH website, but don't assume Sydney = Australia.

Just took a look at the major cities in Australia. Many are more humid in winter than summer. Brisbane and Sydney being two that are not.

 

[drron]

There is reporting out the morning in Fairfax from a single study, conducted in NSW that is leading to a conclusion that " Coronavirus could become a seasonal disease, with people at greater risk of contracting it during winter, as the humidity drops."



This is the sort of shoddy, poor quality journalism that annoys me. No links or closer analysis of the study (what are the other factors that could compound this?). And worse I read it in the Melbourne Age. The humidity does not drop in the winter in Melbourne ... Climate statistics for Australian locations . Sure, run the story on the SMH website, but don't assume Sydney = Australia.

I always remember my first day working in Tasmania.The staff were saying how hot and humid it was.it certainly was a nice spring day but I still wore a jumper as I considered a day with a maximum temp of 18C and humidity 40% was neither hot nor humid.

 

[Pushka]

I always remember my first day working in Tasmania.The staff were saying how hot and humid it was.it certainly was a nice spring day but I still wore a jumper as I considered a day with a maximum temp of 18C and humidity 40% was neither hot nor humid.

Dare I do an HVR and say humidity is a relative thing?

 

[p--and--t]

Dare I do an HVR and say humidity is a relative thing?

...are you here just to vacuum up those laughs (or groans maybe)

[HVR sounds like..?]

 

[suze2000]

This medical professional is concerned by this virus. We are learning as we go with regards to treatment, spread, disease progression, everything. In the meantime, people (particularly in the US and the UK and parts of Europe) are dying unnecessarily. We have been really REALLY lucky.

Furthermore, I am distressed by the comment above about co-morbidities, which implies that it's okay for these people to die because they were already "sick". Who judges that I'd like to know? I'd have to guess that maybe 70% or more of the people I know have co-morbidities that increase their risk profile, and many of them have two (or more). Most of these people would consider themselves "well" considering their own situation.

It's not okay for people to die no matter what their underlying health issues. Cancer survivors, people with lung issues, fat people, old people, people with autoimmune disorders, the disabled, the homeless, the pregnant. They all deserve to be safe from this virus. And as @Pushka above points out, the economic cost to every nation appears to have been the same regardless of whether they locked down or not. So I don't see the economic difference in having a lockdown or not EXCEPT that it saves lives. So people demanding we reopen everything are IMO being needlessly premature and advocating putting people at risk. Until we can say there's been no community spread, then we cannot relax.

 

[Pushka]

Furthermore, I am distressed by the comment above about co-morbidities, which implies that it's okay for these people to die because they were already "sick"

That’s a rather unusual extrapolation to say it’s implied that it’s ok for these people to die!

The comment was simply in this context, that the young man had been having unexplained seizures and being home alone would easily have been the cause of death and not Covid. It’s like men who are discovered at autopsy to have prostate cancer but that wasn’t the cause of death.

And as I have lupus I’m one of those with a significant co morbidity. And I am not advocating self sacrifice. .

 

[Lynda2475]

Im sceptical about the humidity comment, because Brazil which is largely in the tropics and has high humdity has a crazy number of cases. Yes i know their president hasnt been taking the pandemic seriously and they have high rates of poverty which are also key factors.

If Australia's international borders remain closed, with returning aussies still having to do mandatory quarantine, those state governments with closed borders really have to reconsider given the virtual non existent community spread. Seems to only be Victoria that is struggling with community spread atm and even so the numbers arent alarming. If office workers keep largely wfh limiting the strain on Public Transport over crowding (maybe make wearing a mask on all PT mandatory, assuming the government can make them availabel for people to buy), we should be able to start having larger gatehrings liek concerts etc provided people maintain good hand hygeine and stay home if unwell.

 

[JohnM]

So people demanding we reopen everything are IMO being needlessly premature and advocating putting people at risk. Until we can say there's been no community spread, then we cannot relax.

Everything that you said is fair enough to a point.

However, I don't see any evidence of people 'demanding that we reopen everything' (my italicising). With respect, that is hyperbole.

At the outset of restrictions, our leaders were saying that we must follow the medical advice for two reasons: to prevent spread and to allow the medical system to build preparedness for instances of outbreaks.

By and large, the community was very compliant in accepting that.

Now, the message has in substantial part become inconsistent with that original message. The medical advice is now that closure of state borders is no longer necessary. Yet the leaders are rejecting that.

We saw something similar with school closures.

The original national consistency has become slightly anarchic.

I think people can be excused for arcing up about both the inconsistency and the brutal economic consequences and saying, rhetorically, 'You can't have it both ways.' There is a risk that the leaders, rather than taking people with them, will cause fractures in the community.

We see elements of that in people who have lost the job or business, referring to 'Public servants who don't have to worry about the source of their income.' making/advising on these decisions.

I think we run some risks of civil disobedience if people become frustrated and impatient at what they may now see as excessively draconian measures that may seem not to have a consistent rational basis. That could manifest itself be on the streets; in a sense it's arguably already manifested in legal challenges to state border closures.

It is pretty much impossible to draw a line at zero or infinity - yet that seems to be becoming the perceived message - intended or not.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

This medical professional is concerned by this virus. We are learning as we go with regards to treatment, spread, disease progression, everything. In the meantime, people (particularly in the US and the UK and parts of Europe) are dying unnecessarily. We have been really REALLY lucky.

Australia was not lucky, they acted early. All countries that acted early have done well. Speed has been the most crucial factor to combat Covid 19.

Australia did what we needed to roughly when it was required. Not country apart from Taiwan has been perfect, but on the whole Australia has done very well.

However part of the plan was to put in place the tools to allow re-activation. These are now in place. ie

• Ample testing (this was not available early on)
• Sufficient contact tract, including now CovidSafe App.
• Ongoing measures such as some physical distancing, improved cleaning, handwashing etc
• Hotspot management
• International border restrictions ( As most of our cases were generated from international travellers)
• Greater ICU capacity and more ventilators

It's not okay for people to die no matter what their underlying health issues. Cancer survivors, people with lung issues, fat people, old people, people with autoimmune disorders, the disabled, the homeless, the pregnant. They all deserve to be safe from this virus. And as @Pushka above points out, the economic cost to every nation appears to have been the same regardless of whether they locked down or not. So I don't see the economic difference in having a lockdown or not EXCEPT that it saves lives. So people demanding we reopen everything are IMO being needlessly premature and advocating putting people at risk. Until we can say there's been no community spread, then we cannot relax.

I agree that it is not ok for people die unnecessarily, and it is also not ok for people to suffer unnecessarily from severe health problems. But the number of new cases is now tiny, and the likely death rate from these new cases going forward is tiny. So in my mind the human toll we are paying is now higher than the potential lives, and health issues, saved.

What is not so tiny is the number of deaths, and health problems, occurring from the current level of restrictions which are now too tight for the actual threat now posed.

People are now not being treated adequately for a range of health problems. This will have a death and health toll, including mental health. History tells us that ongoing economic harm will result in more suicides.

We are by continuing to be too tight putting more people at risk, than the numbers we are reducing risk for. It is time now to put faith in the tools that have been put in place.


Australia has done very well with Covid 19. But it can now do best in my opinion with greater reactivation and in relying on the Covid 19 control tools that have now been put in place. This will also include aspects such as working at home continuing , though at a reduced level.

Yes we need to be prudent and cautious, but we need to look at both sides of the ledger and not just one.

 

[RooFlyer]

So I don't see the economic difference in having a lockdown or not EXCEPT that it saves lives. So people demanding we reopen everything are IMO being needlessly premature and advocating putting people at risk. Until we can say there's been no community spread, then we cannot relax.

Well, wot JohnM said. Its not just a health decision (and as drron has pointed out, there are health consequences - lives lost and also violent domestic crime - in lock-downs too). We've done the hard yards and achieved what we were told the object was. If they now move the goal posts (cliche count ... 3), next time it won't be such smooth sailing (4) to herd the cats (5).

No-one rational is proposing to re-open 'everything'. What I and others are saying that as we've achieved what was set out ... in fact far exceeded expectations ... so now lets adhere to the plan devised by our new over-lords, the Chief Medical Officers. They called it, so now lets start to do it, or keep doing it.

 

[drron]

Yes people have died because of the lockdown and others have suffered serious health consequences.The problem is there is no counting of these unintended consequences but if my experience is anything to go by the unintended deaths due to the lockdown would exceed deaths due to Covid 19.

And in South Australia there really shouldn't be any intrastate lockdown apart from social distancing and good hygeine as they haven't had a locally acquired case in over a month.
Most cases have been acquired overseas or contacts of those cases.
The total number of cases acquired interstate is 6,locally acquired 9.So is the cost of the border closures really worth it.With more bankruptcies will come more suicides.Modelling suggests suicides will rise 50% annually for at least 5 years due to this pandemic and lockdowns.

 

[N860CR]

Now, the message has in substantial part become inconsistent with that original message

This is what really annoys me. We were told “spread the curve” so as to not overwhelm the hospital system. We were told eradication is not practical and is not the goal. So where are we now? The hospitals ran empty and are still well below capacity so that’s not a risk. So what are we doing?

 

[JohnM]

In short, a sense of proportion is being lost.

Unfortunately, for whatever reason (social media, a generally mindless media and implausible over-dramatised saturation visual entertainment...) there is a marked tendency these days for almost everything to be over-dramatised and labelled with superlatives, often to the point of catastrophism.

Ally that with an over-zealous application of the precautionary principle, and we inevitably end up with mis-information and paralysis. What follows is elevated partisanship in an environment of growing anger.

Not a good situation to have unfolding IMO, especially against the backdrop of what was once very good social agreement and compliance.

Just to be clear, I am not advocating a 'let it rip' policy. But, we have followed the plan - only to now forget it or be too scared to loosen the screws that were always intended to be loosened.