Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Pushka]

Yes other polls are similar:

However, a new survey by the Australia Institute suggests more than three quarters of Australians support states closing their borders to interstate travel.

Strong support was recorded in NSW (70 per cent), Victoria (76 per cent), Queensland (78 per cent) and Western Australia (88 per cent) in the survey of 1005 people.

“The strong support for state border closures shows that while there is much public relief with some public health restrictions lifting, there is also still much community concern regarding the spread of COVID19,” the institute’s executive director Ben Oquist said.

Australians want state borders to stay shut as new infections near zero

Aussies are overwhelmingly in favour of remaining within their own state – and keeping others out – even as we get closer to achieving zero new infections.

thenewdaily.com.au

The frazzled though in WA may include those working for/in airlines, airports, tourism, hotels, accommodation etc

I dare say that is because the media has gone into overdrive every time even just an isolated case in quarantine tests positive. And some suck it up.

 

[RooFlyer]

Sorry JohnM Unfortunately this is the only poll about the matter that I have seen.

Here's a poll about a nuber of COVID related issues, including lock-downs (also goes onto a second page):

The Essential Report Archive

The Essential Report is a poll that tracks social and political issues. The regular questions include political preferences and leadership approval.

essentialvision.com.au

 

[tgh]

So, again, just how long do you want the lock-down to go?

In my neck of the woods there is minimal lockdown and life is fairly normal…
Who in their right mind would want to leave qld anyway … and there too many bloody Mexicans here already.. keep the border shut.. build a wall…...

Anecdotally , folks seem very happy with Qld's management of the Pandemic and accept the hasten slowly reopening process.
I opine that folks have had an almighty fright and have had some time to consider the direction and priorities of their lives.
Some of the lingering lockdown features that may have irritated a year ago are now accepted philosophically.

 

[Gremlin]

Just as there were many paths into this, there are also many paths out. I don't think any of us want to stifle business in the long run but none of us yet know the path out that allows most growth for business.

So far there seem to be two clearly different strategies:

• Live with the virus
• Live without the virus

Both have winners and losers.

Live with the virus

This is what the Federal Govt and NSW state Govt seem to be advocating. It's a viable strategy, but it comes with both pros and cons. It opens state borders and allows for resumption of domestic tourism to all markets. The biggest con seems to be the consequences of social distancing. 1 person per 4 square metres is very limiting for many small cafes/restaurants and other hospo venues. I've spoken to several cafe owners who have told me that if this rule stays beyond the end of the JobKeeper allowance, then they will have no choice but to close. Equally, it's practically impossible to implement at scale on mass transit systems. Sydney CBD, for example, is slow to come back to life because so many people don't feel they can commute to and from work without breaching appropriate social distancing measures. This has a flow on effect to the businesses around it.

Live without the virus

This is what several state premiers seem to be advocating. Again, it's a viable strategy, but with pros and cons. If the borders stay closed that hits tourism. But, if you eliminate the need for excessive social distancing, this makes many more hospitality venues far more viable. WA is moving to 1 person per 2 square metres, a measure that McGowan linked to keeping community transmission out of WA. Inevitably this saves jobs and businesses in the hospitality industry, I imagine it will make public transport in Perth far more scalable, but comes at an obvious cost to tourism.


If you ask different groups of business people, you'll get very different views as to which approach they'd rather. I know many of the cafe owners near me want the latter - by a huge margin. They simply cannot survive with the consequences of a 1 person per 4 square metre scenario once JobKeeper goes - the numbers simply don't stack up. But their customers are local residents and business people, not tourists. I'm sure if I ask the tour operators in Far North Qld, I'd get a very different response.

There simply is no scenario that enables every business in the country to get back to what it was in February whilst learning to live with the virus. Suggesting that keeping borders closed is bad for business and opening borders up is good for business is not black and white.

 

[oz_mark]

I think live with the virus is the only viable medium term goal. We just need to work out what that means, and making sure everyone knows that there will be responses to outbreaks here and there.

Just hope everyone's ready.

 

[jakeseven7]

I think live with the virus is the only viable medium term goal. We just need to work out what that means, and making sure everyone knows that there will be responses to outbreaks here and there.

Just hope everyone's ready.

Please, everyone's ready? Seen the QLD government recently

 

[oz_mark]

Please, everyone's ready? Seen the QLD government recently

They will need to be. This idea of staying shut for months is not viable. They'll need to work it out.

 

[Pushka]

They will need to be. This idea of staying shut for months is not viable. They'll need to work it out.

And part of the working out will be the reduction of media over reactions to news of a positive test unless there is a compelling public need to know that for safety. Where it's part of a known cluster that has already been identified and locked down, well, it's pretty much irrelevant.

 

[Gremlin]

I think live with the virus is the only viable medium term goal. We just need to work out what that means, and making sure everyone knows that there will be responses to outbreaks here and there.

Just hope everyone's ready.

So far no one, other than McGowan in WA, has put forward a plan to have businesses operate without social distancing in place. A bunch of business owners have already worked out what that means for them. Sounds like you're prepared to condemn a lot of small to medium hospitality businesses to the scrapheap.

Just hope everyone's ready.

 

[oz_mark]

So far no one, other than McGowan in WA, has put forward a plan to have businesses operate without social distancing in place. A bunch of business owners have already worked out what that means for them. Sounds like you're prepared to condemn a lot of small to medium hospitality businesses to the scrapheap.

Just hope everyone's ready.

We will lose businesses whichever way we go. But sitting around waiting for a vaccine that may or may not arrive is not, in my view, viable.

Learn to live with it is about our only medium term option.

 

[N860CR]

We will lose businesses whichever way we go. But sitting around waiting for a vaccine that may or may not arrive is not, in my view, viable.

Learn to live with it is about our only medium term option.

Correct. The talk by states that they’re “waiting for a vaccine” is irresponsible, at best. It can’t be part of the long term plan.

Living with it; that’s what we do with every other virus. The connection between that and closed state borders is questionable. The general public believes what they’re fed, and certain premiers are telling them that closed state borders are the savior. I’ve not seen a single thing that supports that position.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Just as there were many paths into this, there are also many paths out.

Agree.

I don't think any of us want to stifle business in the long run but none of us yet know the path out that allows most growth for business.

So far there seem to be two clearly different strategies:

• Live with the virus
• Live without the virus

Both have winners and losers.

Live with the virus

This is what the Federal Govt and NSW state Govt seem to be advocating. It's a viable strategy, but it comes with both pros and cons. It opens state borders and allows for resumption of domestic tourism to all markets. The biggest con seems to be the consequences of social distancing. 1 person per 4 square metres is very limiting for many small cafes/restaurants and other hospo venues. I've spoken to several cafe owners who have told me that if this rule stays beyond the end of the JobKeeper allowance, then they will have no choice but to close. Equally, it's practically impossible to implement at scale on mass transit systems. Sydney CBD, for example, is slow to come back to life because so many people don't feel they can commute to and from work without breaching appropriate social distancing measures. This has a flow on effect to the businesses around it.

Live without the virus

This is what several state premiers seem to be advocating. Again, it's a viable strategy, but with pros and cons. If the borders stay closed that hits tourism. But, if you eliminate the need for excessive social distancing, this makes many more hospitality venues far more viable. WA is moving to 1 person per 2 square metres, a measure that McGowan linked to keeping community transmission out of WA. Inevitably this saves jobs and businesses in the hospitality industry, I imagine it will make public transport in Perth far more scalable, but comes at an obvious cost to tourism.


If you ask different groups of business people, you'll get very different views as to which approach they'd rather. I know many of the cafe owners near me want the latter - by a huge margin. They simply cannot survive with the consequences of a 1 person per 4 square metre scenario once JobKeeper goes - the numbers simply don't stack up. But their customers are local residents and business people, not tourists. I'm sure if I ask the tour operators in Far North Qld, I'd get a very different response.

There simply is no scenario that enables every business in the country to get back to what it was in February whilst learning to live with the virus. Suggesting that keeping borders closed is bad for business and opening borders up is good for business is not black and white.

I think the first over-estimates how much of the virus is actually still active in Australia, and in my opinion that this very low level will keep reducing till it is effectively zero. That reduction will allow more and more measures to be reduced and eventually ceased. Eventually it will reduce to managing our international border and the interactions of people and goods/materials coming and going.


I think the second ignores that we will always (subject to vaccine effectiveness etc) will have to live with the threat of the virus and hence occasional outbreaks as we still have international trade (ships and flights) and returning travellers/residents. ie The recent cluster in the hotel quarantine security guards being a case in point.


So for me there is only the one scenario which is to live with the virus. How we choose to do that, and the rate that control measures are ceased is the issue. It certainly does have to be a one size fits all.

Living with the virus means maintaining the ability to aggressively jump on any new case/outbreak.

Living with the virus is also going to have protocols for international travel for business, compassionate and leisure. These protocols will be different dependant of the country travelled to. Essentially the Covid free and the Covid active.

 

[jakeseven7]

They will need to be. This idea of staying shut for months is not viable. They'll need to work it out.

Don't be silly, we (QLD) don't have a very big tourism industry or much reliance on it, we will be fine

But we will scream from the roof tops about a 30 year old who died from corona... oh wait sorrrrry

 

[woodborer]

Correct. The talk by states that they’re “waiting for a vaccine” is irresponsible, at best. It can’t be part of the long term plan.

Living with it; that’s what we do with every other virus. The connection between that and closed state borders is questionable. The general public believes what they’re fed, and certain premiers are telling them that closed state borders are the savior. I’ve not seen a single thing that supports that position.

The state border closure may just end up being a legal decision. The states need to be prepared for that.

 

[Lynda2475]

The case for keeping international borders closed to all but returning aussies still has merit at this stage, as Covid19 is still spreading at dangerous level in many parts of the world. But here in Aus the virus is now at such low levels, we applied restrictions early, aussies largely complied and we have flattened our curve. No one can argue that our hospitals are even close to being overwhelmed - we have only 4 Covid-19 cases in ICU nationally and 26 in hopsital nationally.

I have concerns about possible exemptions for international students in near future, unless they pay to be in supervised hotel quarantine (i do not think australian tax payer should fund their quarantine) as prior to the international border closure there was much evidence that arriving students were not properly self quarantining. IMO any exemption should definitely not be considered until Aussies can travel freely within our own country and physical distancing is consitent at 1.5sqm (not 4sqm).

We need to continue to exercise caution but we do not need to keep everyone at home as much now and further impact the economy given there is virtually no community transmission. If you are vulnerable i.e. elderly or immuno compromised or a carer for someone who is, then limiting contacts and continuing extended physcial diatncing makes sense, for everyone else we should keep up the good hygene, stay 1.5m away from strangers and stay home if feeling unwell. Keep testing freely available and keep using the app.

The WA and Qld premiers in partiucluar are behaving like NSW and Vic are teeming with active cases and that their residents represent a huge threat. I dont personally know a single person who has tested positive (or who even knows anyone who has). They also seem to forget that most international arrivals are coming via Sydney (and to a lesser extent Melborune) and that our populations are much larger.

Even once there is a vaccine, it doesnt mean that that we will have zero cases. There will always been anti-vaxxers and those who cant get the vaccine for medical reasons. Look at measles, we have had an effective vaccine for over 50 years, yet we still see outbreaks each year - patient zero usually traced back to overseas source but then there is some community transmission as not everyone is vaccinated. Looking at other diseases which have been eradicated via vaccines like small pox, it took decades, Fact is we will be living with COvid-19 for a long time yet, what we need to hope is that in Aus we can contiue to keep the numbers manageable and then when an effective vaccine and/or better treatement is found, that globally we can manage cases much better and return to pre-covid travel levels.

 

[RooFlyer]

Don't be silly, we (QLD) don't have a very big tourism industry or much reliance on it, we will be fine

Like QLD, eastern Tas don’t have much of a tourism industry. About 80% of the economy, I’d guess.

So naturally the local council has just decided to close the three ‘Visitor Information Offices’, to save money, as of October. Just in time for when visitation should be full back to normal and in time for Summer.

You couldn’t make this stuff up.

 

[Lynda2475]

Im probably grumpier than usual today, because a colleague just asked me why I cancelled the WFH appointment in my calendar for tomorrow. I had put that in there when WFH wasnt the norm, back in October to set expevctation that I would be WFH before flying out later that night to comemcne my first ever all business class classic reward trip which of course isnt happening Now that things are somewhat under control here in Aus I just want to go somewhere warm to escape winter for a few days - whichever of Northerm WA (Exmouth or Broome), Darwin or FNQ opens first will get some pretty immediate business from me.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Even once there is a vaccine, it doesnt mean that that we will have zero cases. There will always been anti-vaxxers and those who cant get the vaccine for medical reasons. Look at measles, we have had an effective vaccine for over 50 years, yet we still see outbreaks each year - patient zero usually traced back to overseas source but then there is some community transmission as not everyone is vaccinated.

Also no vaccine is 100% effective. For some it can prevent symptoms, for some it will reduce the severity of the symptoms and for others it will not work at all. For reasons related to the individual, not all vaccinated persons develop immunity.

Part of the reason why a vaccine is successful is if enough people take it that it helps to break, or at least minimise, transmission. So international travel based on vaccination will only really become viable when both Australia and the country/ies travelled to have achieved a very high vaccination rate. Just one individual being able to get vaccinated will not give them carte blanche to travel. They need the herd to have been vaccinated and/or gained immunity from having had Covid 19 (assuming that this does occur, and that secondly that immunity is for a sustained period of time)

 

[Gremlin]

We will lose businesses whichever way we go. But sitting around waiting for a vaccine that may or may not arrive is not, in my view, viable.

Learn to live with it is about our only medium term option.

Strawman.

No one I've ever heard has suggested that anyone's strategy is to sit around and wait for a vaccine.

I agree we will lose businesses either way. If it were me, and I was in the unenviable situation where I had to choose to decimate one industry or another and I couldn't protect them all, I'd choose the option that saved the one with the biggest impact on GDP (or GSP). For some states that option involves keeping borders closed. coughty for those businesses who lose out. Equally coughty for the other businesses that lose out if the decision is otherwise.

 

[Gremlin]

Agree.




I think the first over-estimates how much of the virus is actually still active in Australia, and in my opinion that this very low level will keep reducing till it is effectively zero. That reduction will allow more and more measures to be reduced and eventually ceased. Eventually it will reduce to managing our international border and the interactions of people and goods/materials coming and going.


I think the second ignores that we will always (subject to vaccine effectiveness etc) will have to live with the threat of the virus and hence occasional outbreaks as we still have international trade (ships and flights) and returning travellers/residents. ie The recent cluster in the hotel quarantine security guards being a case in point.


So for me there is only the one scenario which is to live with the virus. How we choose to do that, and the rate that control measures are ceased is the issue. It certainly does have to be a one size fits all.

Living with the virus means maintaining the ability to aggressively jump on any new case/outbreak.

Living with the virus is also going to have protocols for international travel for business, compassionate and leisure. These protocols will be different dependant of the country travelled to. Essentially the Covid free and the Covid active.

By and large I agree with all your protocols and the need to aggressively control any new case - they are equally true, if not moreso, in the "living without the virus" scenario.

If we are over-estimating the activity of the virus and we are moving to a level that is effectively zero, then we're all arguing the same thing. Measures will be reduced and then ceased. I can't see that being anything other than a "living without the virus" scenario nationally.

But that's not what has been talked about at a Federal level. There's an ad on the radio as I type about the need to "Stay COVID free - Do the Three" which requires maintaining social distancing at 1 per 4sqm indoors. This has been articulated as part of the long-term plan yet it's simply not feasible for many businesses to operate like that long-term.

In contrast, NZ's Alert System has no physical distancing requirements once they move to Level 1 - basically they are adopting a "living without the virus" scenario. Some are tipping that they'll get there as soon as next week. No social distancing, full and free movement domestically, no capacity restrictions on places of employment, no restrictions on public gatherings including sport, worship, concerts, festivals, etc. What's not to like? I want us to live like that too and, at the moment, as a nation, we don't have a plan to get us there.

If social distancing is long-term here in Australia, then businesses need to understand the implications for this and be supported to change their business models to adapt to it. I know of a couple of business owners trying to decide whether to reconfigure their office fitouts to allow for 1 per 4sqm. I've heard the frustration when they say that they don't need to do this for their Perth or Auckland offices, only Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane. They just want certainty.