Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[nutwood]

To think that senior pollies should go to general public HQ is ludicrous.

I totally agree that their isolation arrangements should be different. Do not pass Go, do not collect....

 

[jonboixxx]

I totally agree that their isolation arrangements should be different. Do not pass Go, do not collect....

Yes, lock up the decision makers, then propose to operate the country without our elected. Smart much?

 

[Flying mermaid]

They want us to act like we are all in it together and to take one for the team (eg vaccinate when there is no real personal benefit or need),

I know this year has been very hard on you with the separation from your son and I totally get that, with my son overseas as well, although I am more fortunate as I now have 2 in Australia.

however they want us to get vaccinated not to meet some Machiavellian purpose, but to stop us getting a pretty nasty disease with high fatality rates for over 60s.

the road to home quarantine and more open borders lies through a high rate of people vaccinated.

I sometimes think they need to open the borders and let 300 or 400 people a day die and maybe Australians will wake up to the real world

 

[lovetravellingoz]

NSW extends Covid restrictions as ‘missing link’ in Sydney outbreak eludes authorities​

New South Wales will extend most of its Covid-19 restrictions for another week as it struggles to identify the missing link between a quarantine case and the recent, small outbreak.

The state has again not reported any further community transmission, recording zero cases in the 24 hours to 8pm Saturday.


But NSW Health said it was still unable to identify the link between a case in hotel quarantine and two cases in the eastern suburbs, which were connected by rapid genomic sequencing work last week.

​

NSW extends Covid restrictions as ‘missing link’ in Sydney outbreak eludes authorities

State reports no community transmission, but masks to remain mandatory on public transport

www.theguardian.com

 

[nutwood]

As more people are vaccinated, this could come to be a common feature of Covid outbreaks. The problem has always been asymptomatic carriers.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

As more people are vaccinated, this could come to be a common feature of Covid outbreaks. The problem has always been asymptomatic carriers.

Though contact tracing should have identified and tested all the more likely staff from HQ and Border Control by now.

Plus one would think serolgy tests of the most likely to see if they have ever had CV19.

Some have said that NSW does not do full second ring in terms of requiring everyone within the second ring to test. Is that still the case? ie are they casting the net wide enough?

 

[Lynda2475]

No NSW doesn't do second ring and there is no justification to do so, given no further community spread. Locking down anyone who is a contact of a person who has been to a venue (and hasn't themselves tested positive) is overkill and causes unnecessary economic damage for zero health benefit.

The popular hypothesis is that the transmission site is the restaurant XOPP in Haymarket, as it was found that check-ins at this venue were very poor and its quite close to the hotel that patient zero was diagnosed at then transferred from making it likely that staff from there also dined there.

 

[Pushka]

The BBQ guy has been identified and he is an Executive of a Venture Capital group who was inspecting BBQ galore sites with a view to purchasing the chain. Possibly one of his US execs flew to Australia and was possibly still contagious after quarantine.

 

[Lynda2475]

Possibly one of his US execs flew to Australia and was possibly still contagious after quarantine.

Perhaps, but patient zero (the US traveler with the genomic match) was still in HQ when the BBQ guy was infected, so if he got it from another traveler they must have tested negative and been discharged before patient zero.

 

[Pushka]

Perhaps, but patient zero (the US traveler with the genomic match) was still in HQ when the BBQ guy was infected, so if he go it from another traveller they must have tested negative and been discharged before patient zero.

I didn't realise that was the timing, it was a detail I didn't pick up.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Just to clarify on what second ring is again as it it is not quarantining casual contacts.



Second ring for contacts of close contacts, and casual contacts, is only requiring them to get tested and isolate till a negative test is obtained. For the vast majority of people these days this is often less than 24 hours. My tests in Vic and Qld have been results back in less than half a day.

People who have only visited an exposure site at the designated time range as a positive are casual contacts and as such just get tested and only isolate till a negative test is obtained. No quarantine period applies.

It is only close contacts that are required to quarantine for 14 days regardless of test results. ie People that have a reasonably long exposure time with a positive person (or where a positive person has been such as a cleaner) whether this is at an exposure site, .home, workplace, HQ etc.

So if you visit a shopping centre you will be a casual contact. If you sit at a cafe at a table next to a positive person you will be deemed a close contact.

This is what the second ring method is.

 

[JessicaTam]

Perhaps, but patient zero (the US traveler with the genomic match) was still in HQ when the BBQ guy was infected, so if he got it from another traveler they must have tested negative and been discharged before patient zero.

Oh no. He must have caught it over Zoom!

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The BBQ guy has been identified and he is an Executive of a Venture Capital group who was inspecting BBQ galore sites with a view to purchasing the chain. Possibly one of his US execs flew to Australia and was possibly still contagious after quarantine.

Most unusual to name a positive person. I wonder if it was Apollo Global Management releasing it, or whether the AFR just choosing to release it?


In the meantime the unknown community spread, remains unknown.... At least it does not seem to continuing to spread.

 

[Lynda2475]

I didn't realise that was the timing, it was a detail I didn't pick up.

Patient zero arrived form USA on 26th April, was taken to Park Royal at Darling Harbour then transferred to a Health hotel on 28th April after testing positive. Their 14 days of HQ would end at midnight on 9th May (so late night this morning).

All the close contacts of the BBQ Man and his Wife have been contacted and tested negative.

The known gap in the contact tracing was the XOPP Restaurant in Haymarket whose customers had largely not been checking in. So dining here could have been the transmission point, but unlikely to find those people unless they come forward voluntarily or paid by credit card (something which is uncommon in Chinatown as lots of the restaurants are cash only).

They need to also look at waste disposal and laundry services for the two hotels patient zero was staying as could also be surface transmission form those, given the HQ staff have also tested negative.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Just to clarify on what second ring is again as it it is not quarantining casual contacts.



Second ring for contacts of close contacts, and casual contacts, is only requiring them to get tested and isolate till a negative test is obtained. For the vast majority of people these days this is often less than 24 hours. My tests in Vic and Qld have been results back in less than half a day.

People who have only visited an exposure site at the designated time range as a positive are casual contacts and as such just get tested and only isolate till a negative test is obtained. No quarantine period applies.

It is only close contacts that are required to quarantine for 14 days regardless of test results. ie People that have a reasonably long exposure time with a positive person (or where a positive person has been such as a cleaner) whether this is at an exposure site, .home, workplace, HQ etc.

So if you visit a shopping centre you will be a casual contact. If you sit at a cafe at a table next to a positive person you will be deemed a close contact.

This is what the second ring method is.

I now have answered my own earlier question. NSW does seem to use the second ring method looking at this:

COVID-19 (Coronavirus) - Latest COVID-19 case locations and alerts in NSW

www.health.nsw.gov.au

ie

• Close contacts – Get tested immediately and self-isolate for 14 days​

• Casual contacts – Get tested immediately and self-isolate until you get a negative result​

 

[Lynda2475]

Close and casual contact rules have existed for over 12 months - first, second and third rings of containment is a Victorian terminology which has never applied in NSW.

A close contact is someone who has been near enough to a person with COVID-19 while they were infectious that there is a reasonable chance they will be infected with COVID-19. The close contact restrictions then extend to the close contacts fellow household members (but not to close contacts of the non positive household members).

Casual contacts is someone who has been near a person with COVID-19 while they were infectious but who is at lower risk of being infected than a close contact. These are the people who had been at a casual contact venue at the same time as a positive (and does not include the casual contacts household members).

In other states there have been cases of contacts of household members of close and casual contacts being forced to test and iso, which results in much larger group of people being locked down.

 

[nutwood]

In other states there have been cases of contacts of household members of close and casual contacts being forced to test and iso, which results in much larger group of people being locked down.

That would be a third ring? Contacts of close contacts of close contacts...?
Unless the assumption is that a household member of a close contact has no hope of avoiding infection and is therefore classified the same as the original close contact. I don't believe this has proven to be the case, even within households.

 

[Seat0B]

I know this year has been very hard on you with the separation from your son and I totally get that, with my son overseas as well, although I am more fortunate as I now have 2 in Australia.

however they want us to get vaccinated not to meet some Machiavellian purpose, but to stop us getting a pretty nasty disease with high fatality rates for over 60s.

the road to home quarantine and more open borders lies through a high rate of people vaccinated.

I sometimes think they need to open the borders and let 300 or 400 people a day die and maybe Australians will wake up to the real world

I definitely don't want 300 or more people a day to die! And if it was anywhere near that, I would take one for the team and get the shot right now - but we bubble along with 1 or 2 community cases in total, not even every day. And I will eventually get vaccinated - I'm not against the vaccination per se, more that as a fit 60 yo with no underlying conditions, and living in the ACT, my personal risk of COVID with complications is much lower than my risk of clots from the vaccine. And add to that the statements by the PM and health minister, as recently as Saturday that even vaccination will not lead to borders opening. I feel a lot of vaccine inertia.

So what will tip me over to get vaccinated faster is actually the reverse of your logic " the road to home quarantine and more open borders lies through a high rate of people vaccinated". I just do not trust that this will happen, given the statements of the politicians. I need an incentive that motivates me - and that would be "the road to a high rate of people vaccinated lies through open borders and home quarantine."

I know and appreciate that other people have a different risk calculation, be that from their age or their underlying health conditions.

 

[Flying mermaid]

I definitely don't want 300 or more people a day to die! And if it was anywhere near that, I would take one for the team and get the shot right now - but we bubble along with 1 or 2 community cases in total, not even every day. And I will eventually get vaccinated - I'm not against the vaccination per se, more that as a fit 60 yo with no underlying conditions, and living in the ACT, my personal risk of COVID with complications is much lower than my risk of clots from the vaccine. And add to that the statements by the PM and health minister, as recently as Saturday that even vaccination will not lead to borders opening. I feel a lot of vaccine inertia.

So what will tip me over to get vaccinated faster is actually the reverse of your logic " the road to home quarantine and more open borders lies through a high rate of people vaccinated". I just do not trust that this will happen, given the statements of the politicians. I need an incentive that motivates me - and that would be "the road to a high rate of people vaccinated lies through open borders and home quarantine."

I know and appreciate that other people have a different risk calculation, be that from their age or their underlying health conditions.

I would certainly agree that there is not enough of a push to make people want to be vaccinated.

while the gloomy statements recently of politicians leads one to believe borders will stay closed for years, part of my desire to get vaccinated as soon as possible was a lack of trust as to what would happen with borders..

there has to be huge lobbying from both the education and tourism industries to allow people back in - probably via more “bubbles” and quarantining of students. It wouldn’t take much to have an outbreak once that happens and with the complacent behaviour of people (including in the ACT), it would spread quickly.

anyway 11 days after our vaccination, no clots yet. My 29 year old daughter and 31 year old son-in-law had no issues with AZ either.

EDIT just listened to a bit of Greg Hunt’s press conference and in answer to a reporter’s question he said that they would definitely be looking at more bubbles and that vaccinated people would have an easier road both out and into Australia. No time frame on any of it though

 

[nutwood]

One thing that may change the risk calculation is that as more people become vaccinated, the chances increase of coming into contact with asymptomatic people.
The sickest my family has ever been was after spending a day with my mother who was undergoing chemo and was putting in a lot of hours in the hospital. She had been vaccinated against everything, we had not.