lovetravellingoz
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Extract from Vic DHHS Daily Media release
14 May 2021
All three of the individual’s household Primary Close Contacts have been tested and returned negative results. As Primary Close Contacts, they remain in isolation.
In addition, as of midday today:
Not really sure why all have not yet returned negative results as it would seem that there should have been ample time for identified contacts to have been tested. Unfortunately there is no commentary as to the why not.
However all of the primary contacts who have extended time contact with the returned traveller, and who thus were the most likely to have been infected, have now all returned negative results. ie The household contacts and those at the Curry Vault.
So far this continues the recent pattern of the HQ cases where the person who has been positive outside of HQ is not that infectious., and other people actually getting infected by them is rare and when it occurs it is mainly through quite extended contact.
This reminds of the comments of a number of CHO's and epidemiologists that most cases are caused by few people. That is that most people if infected are not highly contagious. But every now and again you get a super-spreader who can readily infect other people, and most likely due them exhaling large viral loads that are also aerosolised and are not just droplets.
It is my belief that you get the occasional super-spreader in HQ , and when that HQ has poor control over air movement that the aerosolised virus then infects the occasional nearby staff member or quarantining traveller. In Brisbane this infected many quarantining people.
Ina non-HQ setting we saw how a super spreading event infected 11 customers and 1 staff member at the Smile Buffalo, one of who may well have been the super- spreader. They having been infected via an unknown transmission chain rom someone linked to the Avalon Cluster. The Avalon cluster itself most likely having been fueled by an unknown super-spreader early in its genesis.
It really is just dumb luck as to whom is a super-spreader and who isn't.
However the good news now is that time for transmission chains unchecked to grow is very limited as the various measures deployed now mean that cases are jumped on early. But we still need people to get tested as the Melbourne Traveller did even if he did delay.
So even if the Melbourne Traveller had of been a super-spreader, which it looks like he is not, it would still have been quelled. It is just that it may have generated a dozen or thirty cases first.
14 May 2021
Update: Wollert COVID-19 case
Public health teams are continuing their work identifying, testing, tracing and isolating people who have been in contact with the positive COVID-19 case in Victoria.All three of the individual’s household Primary Close Contacts have been tested and returned negative results. As Primary Close Contacts, they remain in isolation.
In addition, as of midday today:
- 41 patrons and staff who attended the Curry Vault CBD exposure site are currently identified as Primary Close Contacts. All have returned negative test results.
- 17 people who attended the Pact Altona North exposure site are currently identified as Primary Close Contacts, and 14 negative test results have so far been returned.
- 31 people who attended the Indiagate Epping exposure site are currently identified as Primary Close Contacts. All have returned negative test results.
- 60 people who attended the Woolworths Epping exposure site are currently identified as Primary Close Contacts, and 49 negative test results have so far been returned.
Not really sure why all have not yet returned negative results as it would seem that there should have been ample time for identified contacts to have been tested. Unfortunately there is no commentary as to the why not.
However all of the primary contacts who have extended time contact with the returned traveller, and who thus were the most likely to have been infected, have now all returned negative results. ie The household contacts and those at the Curry Vault.
So far this continues the recent pattern of the HQ cases where the person who has been positive outside of HQ is not that infectious., and other people actually getting infected by them is rare and when it occurs it is mainly through quite extended contact.
This reminds of the comments of a number of CHO's and epidemiologists that most cases are caused by few people. That is that most people if infected are not highly contagious. But every now and again you get a super-spreader who can readily infect other people, and most likely due them exhaling large viral loads that are also aerosolised and are not just droplets.
It is my belief that you get the occasional super-spreader in HQ , and when that HQ has poor control over air movement that the aerosolised virus then infects the occasional nearby staff member or quarantining traveller. In Brisbane this infected many quarantining people.
Ina non-HQ setting we saw how a super spreading event infected 11 customers and 1 staff member at the Smile Buffalo, one of who may well have been the super- spreader. They having been infected via an unknown transmission chain rom someone linked to the Avalon Cluster. The Avalon cluster itself most likely having been fueled by an unknown super-spreader early in its genesis.
It really is just dumb luck as to whom is a super-spreader and who isn't.
However the good news now is that time for transmission chains unchecked to grow is very limited as the various measures deployed now mean that cases are jumped on early. But we still need people to get tested as the Melbourne Traveller did even if he did delay.
So even if the Melbourne Traveller had of been a super-spreader, which it looks like he is not, it would still have been quelled. It is just that it may have generated a dozen or thirty cases first.
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