Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[jakeseven7]

At least the Morning Tea news was much better.

Fantastic news all are linked / isolating. Hopefully out of lockdown soon VIC!

 

[dajop]

There was an informative article on the SMH over the weekend dispelling the myths that differences in demographics explain why outbreaks seem to be harder to control in Vic vs NSW.

What the article completely missed though was the specific settings in which the spread took place, i.e. the spread by casual workers and for example the delivery driver who spread it far and wide. And infectiousness of several positive cases well before they tested positive and isolated. There's undoubtedly an element of luck in all this.

And everyone seems to (conveniently forget) the Black Rock cluster. Melbourne did not lock down completely during the Black Rock cluster (from memory that involved reduced densities of dining, increased mask use etc). But that cluster was in a more affluent cohort and did not seem to be characterised by rapid spread all over the city.

Also, I don't think looking at the general demographics of the city help - prima facie they are very similar. There are specific problems in the outer northern and western suburbs of Melbourne that however seems to be the common thread in all outbreaks that have led to lockdowns, Who knows why.

Also, article suggests that Dan would have locked down all of Sydney if he'd been in charge of the northern beaches outbreak - but I'm not sure he would have, he certainly would have locked down the northern beaches. . There is no big swathes of Melbourne (other than tiny pockets) you can lock down by controlling 3 roads and 2 means of non-road based public transport.

Lastly, once bitten, twice shy. They did not lock down fast enough last year and we all know what happened. From a business and interstate travel point of view - what's better to have hospitality and retail closed for 2-3 weeks, interstate borders closed for 4-5 weeks and a quick sharp lockdown. Or a prolonged "moderate" restrictions for a month or two and borders closed for two months.

There is no right answer to all of this. IMHO, if these cases had appeared in Camberwell or Beaumaris, the response may have been very different. But no, in the outer north. Again.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

What the article completely missed though was the specific settings in which the spread took place, i.e. the spread by casual workers and for example the delivery driver who spread it far and wide. And infectiousness of several positive cases well before they tested positive and isolated. There's undoubtedly an element of luck in all this.

And everyone seems to (conveniently forget) the Black Rock cluster. Melbourne did not lock down completely during the Black Rock cluster (from memory that involved reduced densities of dining, increased mask use etc). But that cluster was in a more affluent cohort and did not seem to be characterised by rapid spread all over the city.

Also, I don't think looking at the general demographics of the city help - prima facie they are very similar. There are specific problems in the outer northern and western suburbs of Melbourne that however seems to be the common thread in all outbreaks that have led to lockdowns, Who knows why.

Also, article suggests that Dan would have locked down all of Sydney if he'd been in charge of the northern beaches outbreak - but I'm not sure he would have, he certainly would have locked down the northern beaches. . There is no big swathes of Melbourne (other than tiny pockets) you can lock down by controlling 3 roads and 2 means of non-road based public transport.

Lastly, once bitten, twice shy. They did not lock down fast enough last year and we all know what happened. From a business and interstate travel point of view - what's better to have hospitality and retail closed for 2-3 weeks, interstate borders closed for 4-5 weeks and a quick sharp lockdown. Or a prolonged "moderate" restrictions for a month or two and borders closed for two months.

There is no right answer to all of this. IMHO, if these cases had appeared in Camberwell or Beaumaris, the response may have been very different. But no, in the outer north. Again.

Each Outbreak has differences. The Whittlesea Outbreak has had a much higher percentage than normal of transmission from brief contacts

One demographic that was most definitely a factor in the Second Wave in Vic was very large family households who mixed with other similar very large family households (ie a dozen or more). This particular demographic has not at all yet featured in the two current Outbreaks in Melbourne.

Luck, whether it be bad or good, as you say also is key.
ie

• The Current Melbourne Outbreak retail has been area of multiple transmissions . Whereas say BBQ man wandered around a large list of retail sites, but only infected his partner.
• Camperman became symptomatic on 25th May. If it had of been a couples of days earlier he would quite possibly have infected people in NSW.

Most cases come from few people. So a key driver sometimes is just what the movements of the 2 in 7 who are a lot more contagious do, and how diligent those 2 in 7 are at seeking testing if they are symptomatic.

It is also just luck if your first few cases are from the 5 in 7 category, rather from the 2 in 7 category.

Times have also changed though and resources have improved in Victoria. So in this outbreak the North Melbourne Apartment Tower has been once again exposed, but this time the improved contact tracing has meant that it is being controlled before it could really grow.

It is two weeks now since the latest of two outbreaks overlapping began. 4 weeks if you go back to Wollert Man. The control measures look to be working and would have worked even quicker bar for that two symptomatic people in particular (from memory there was a third) did not get tested till well after they should have with Case 5 only being tested because he was directed to do so.


And yes obviously errors can be a key factor as well. This time around that does not really seem to have been an issue. Though one could question why the vaccine rollout to residents and aged care workers was not much more promptly than it was.

 

[Lynda2475]

There are specific problems in the outer northern and western suburbs of Melbourne that however seems to be the common thread in all outbreaks that have led to lockdowns, Who knows why.

But those same demographics - migrant population, large families, low rates of english, distrust of government also exist in the Western and South Western suburbs of Sydney.

article suggests that Dan would have locked down all of Sydney if he'd been in charge of the northern beaches outbreak - but I'm not sure he would have,

Oh he absolutely would have, there was spread outside the NB, and more cases outside NB at that point than at the point Vic went into ths latest lockdown. Vic has a very low threshold before they flick the lockdown switch.

Lastly, once bitten, twice shy. They did not lock down fast enough last year and we all know what happened. From a business and interstate travel point of view - what's better to have hospitality and retail closed for 2-3 weeks, interstate borders closed for 4-5 weeks and a quick sharp lockdown. Or a prolonged "moderate" restrictions for a month or two and borders closed for two months.

What's better is locking down just those that were directly exposed by visiting a venue (not whole states or cities), trusting track & trace to find cases and let the rest of the state get on with things, with minor restrictions like mask wearing and venue caps. Business does better when there is no lockdown at all. Victorians have been too conditioned into accepting that city/statewide lock downs are the only way to deal with community cases.

very large family households who mixed with other similar very large family households

The entirity fo the Croydon cluster was one family across 3 family get togethers, again not unique to Melbourne.

 

[dajop]

I summary NSW is, as always perfect. I'm not sure why any of us ever bother presenting alternative points of view.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

There is large difference between something happening at all and in the proportion that something happens.

In the latter part of the Victorian Second Wave there was significant transmission within and between very family's was a common occurrence. This time around not yet once (though total cases is much smaller).



In the the Victorian Second Wave though cases in retail settings without an interchange did not occur. In this current outbreak there has been at least 8 such cases (ie no direct interaction) from a vastly smaller number of total cases.

The most that happened in the Second Wave was a small number of cases where there was a direct customer to staff interaction such as at the Butcher Club (ie same as at Berala BWS).


PS How large actually were the very large family households in the Croydon Cluster?

The media references from a quick look just now seem to only refer to extended rather than very large family households "" members from the same extended family ""

 

[dajop]

Oh he absolutely would have, there was spread outside the NB, and more cases outside NB at that point than at the point Vic went into ths latest lockdown. Vic has a very low threshold before tey flick the lockdown switch.

Because you have unique knowledge of how he works?

We are all speculating. You speculate he "absolutely would have" (but he didn't for the gestation of an outbreak in Black Rock, so the evidence is ambiguous, at best). He may well have locked down NB much quicker, and the spread out of NB may have been minimised.

Bottom line ... we don't know what the facts were and how the Victorian health experts would advise and what the triggers are in their model, and as such how Dan would have responded. Neither you or I have that insight.

 

[Lynda2475]

I summary NSW is, as always perfect. I'm not sure why any of us ever bother presenting alternative points of view.

Again not what was said.

You yourself acknowledged the differences that some people are claiming in demographics simply do not exist, that leaves behaviours of individuals like Case 5 who went to work for 12 days with symptoms and only bothered to get tested because he was called by contrat tracers to do so, and Camperman who similarly waited 6 days tro get tested, so yes perhaps luck that in BBQ man got tested much earlier; but also way things are managed.

I think when restrictions are proprotionate you get better compliance and less people looking for loopholes, than when they are super strict/over reaching. We didnt see mass exodus from Northern Beaches, but there were lots of escapees from Melbourne lockdown to the Mornington Penisula etc.

Because you have unique knowledge of how he works?

Just looking at the numbers, if you compare comparable sized clusters and what actions have been. Current outbreak similar in size in Crossroads, similar growth rate. NSW were able to manage Crossroads without a lock down (and there are hundreds of ways into and out of South West Sydney, its nothing like the Northern Beaches in terms of geogrpaghy or socio economic status)

 

[dajop]

Just looking at the numbers, if you compare comparable sized clusters and what actions have been.

Sorry, I didn't realise you were at the table with Allen Cheng and Brett Sutton feeding all that information (the numbers, where the positive individuals had been, the known linkages, the primary contacts and where they had been during infectious etc) into their model they use to trigger restrictions. I stand corrected.

 

[oz_mark]

Also, I don't think looking at the general demographics of the city help - prima facie they are very similar. There are specific problems in the outer northern and western suburbs of Melbourne that however seems to be the common thread in all outbreaks that have led to lockdowns, Who knows why.

Also, article suggests that Dan would have locked down all of Sydney if he'd been in charge of the northern beaches outbreak - but I'm not sure he would have, he certainly would have locked down the northern beaches. . There is no big swathes of Melbourne (other than tiny pockets) you can lock down by controlling 3 roads and 2 means of non-road based public transport.

I tend to agree. The thing that is often overlooked with comparisons of Sydney and Melbourne are topology and geographical differences. The Northern Beaches seem to have been relatively easy to snip off and stop flow in and out. Melbourne is a big grid in comparison.

 

[OATEK]

I tend to agree. The thing that is often overlooked with comparisons of Sydney and Melbourne are topology and geographical differences. The Northern Beaches seem to have been relatively easy to snip off and stop flow in and out. Melbourne is a big grid in comparison.

Nothing relating to Covid is easy, but doesn't mean in shouldn't be tried given the impact of yet another state wide lockdown.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

PS How large actually were the very large family households in the Croydon Cluster?

The media references from a quick look just now seem to only refer to extended rather than very large family households "" members from the same extended family ""

Ok it seems that the Croydon Cluster had its name changed to be the Inner West Community Cluster and reached a total of 10 cases.

So far I cannot see anything that indicates any, or all of, the 3 households were large in size, let alone very large.






From this article it would seem that they were not an unusually large in household size, but rather seem to have just been reasonably typical extended family spread over three households. Whereas in the Vic Second Wave some of the extended family's were all in the one household, and there were also large numbers of children in the house. These large family households then mixed with other households from their extended family living in other housholds leading a large cohort.

Who are the new cases?​

On December 30 it was revealed three adults and three children from one extended family had tested positive to COVID-19.​

​

On December 31 it was announced three more people in the family had also tested positive.​

​

The family members live across three households, one in Croydon, another in Sydney's inner-west and another in the city's south-west.​

Everything we know about the new COVID-19 cluster in Sydney's inner-west

The Premier is "concerned" about the unknown cluster in Croydon which has prompted several venue alerts across many suburbs, even as far as the Blue Mountains. Here's what you need to know.

www.abc.net.au

So Inner West Cluster = 10 Cases.

Casey household Cluster = 45 Cases ( extended family living in five houses being the core of the cluster. )
Family, Roxburgh Park = 28 Cases
Family, Keilor Downs #2 = 19 Cases
Family, Truganina = 16 Cases
Family, Coburg = 15 Cases
Family, Keilor Downs #1 = 13 Cases

etc

 

[oz_mark]

Nothing relating to Covid is easy, but doesn't mean in shouldn't be tried given the impact of yet another state wide lockdown.

No doubt, but saying someone else would have done this or that isn't straightforward. Personally, I think locking the whole state down was over the top, but I just think there are some things that make more granular lockdowns easier in some settings.

 

[Lynda2475]

So Inner West Cluster = 10 Cases.

Never undertsood the renaming as only 1 of the 3 households was in inner west LGA. The 3 households were all the same family, all with more than 6 people living in each home and the cross over point was a very large extended family gathering at the South West Sydney home. Just because it didnt result in huge number of subsequent cases doesnt make the families small, it just shows they were quicker to get tested and isolate rather than flaunting the rules as was known to be the case in some of the Melbourne family clusters.

Sorry, I didn't realise you were at the table with Allen Cheng and Brett Sutton feeding all that information (the numbers, where the positive individuals had been, the known linkages, the primary contacts and where they had been during infectious etc) into their model they use to trigger restrictions. I stand corrected.

Ignoring your sarcasm, if they had hard metrics for lockdowns they would do well to publish them, but they arent at all transparent because that wouldnt suit the narrative, they disregard the Commonwealth hotspot defintion consistently. This lockdown was more about forcing the Feds to fund a tiny 500 bed qurantine facility than actual public safety. There was no reason to include regional Victoria whatsoever.

It would be insteretsing to see how much higher the economic damage to regional Victoria over past 2 weeks plus the losses for this long weekend is comapred to the cost of policing movements from the limited impacted areas of Melborune,

 

[trevella]

This lockdown was more about forcing the Feds to fund a tiny 500 bed qurantine facility than actual public safety.

 

[dajop]

if they had hard metrics for lockdowns they would do well to publish them, but they arent at all transparent because that wouldnt suit the political narrative, they disregard the Commonwealth hotspot defintion consistently. T

But the whole point is that each set of circumstances is different, each has its own parameters that feed into the modelling, regardless of total numbers. There is all sorts of parameters, time of spread, period when positives were infectious, level of contact they had with others, geographic distance of spread, nature of venues where it was spread, whether the cases were linked or not, , characteristics of the strain etc that all must be considered, not just an absolute number.

Victoria did not lockdown during the Black Rock cluster (which most commentators conveniently ignore). They went for a 5 day lockdown during the Melbourne Airport cluster. The actions taken both times worked. Obviously this time things were different.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

So the households were smaller then.

Demographics can and does influence behaviours, trust in authority, willingness to follow rules, type of employment etc.

Though again it is but one factor, and how much it influences any transmission chain, will vary and it has varied.

Other factors influence and may or do dominate.

ie

This outbreak 10% of cases from casual contact without a direct interchange
This outbreak 7% of cases stem from a grade 5 student.

 

[clifford]

Demographics can and does influence behaviours

Yes, indeed, that is certainly a factor.

 

[Lynda2475]

Demographics can and does influence behaviours

And the demographics arent materially different between the states

 

[dajop]

Do you really belive they have a mathematical model built which is complex enough to take all those inputs? I doubt it.

One hopes that the model being used to make these recommendations is sophisticated enough to incorporate a range of parameters, relevant to each particular outbreak. Why do you think Black Rock did not result in a lockdown (of course that would not fit the preferred narrative, that Vic lockdowns whatever the case).

Unless of course it's just someone called Jason taking notes off the chief medical advisor ( who is sipping coughtails whilst working out their advice) whilst berating Jason for being too logical... "Jason Jason Jason" ... (reference to Jimmy Rees video for the uninitiated)

And the demographics arent materially different between the states, but you want to continue to pretend they are.

It's not the demographic difference between states that are important, it could well be demographic differences between where/how the outbreaks occurred that make the difference.

I suspect after 2020, the Victorian health experts have a reasonably good understanding of how things went so wrong last year (and many things did go wrong), and as such are not willing to roll the dice this year.