Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[lovetravellingoz]

And the demographics arent materially different between the states, but you want to continue to pretend they are.

No I don't, you seem focused on what a Talking Head keeps saying rather than what I have said

You do not seem to comprehend that in different outbreaks that different demographics can be at play and once transmission enters that demographic that this can lead to different outcomes.

What I am saying is that in different outbreaks that sometimes that the different demographics can and have been important to parts of that outbreak.

Just compare this the Whittlesea Outbreak to the Smile Buffalo Cluster. Behaviours and demographics were quite different.

Or the First and Second Waves in Victoria.

How many abattoir workers in the First Wave? But once they were exposed...... Conversely since this cohort has been better managed the risk profile has changed. Whereas the management of the Federal Aged Care Sector Workforce still seems largely chaotic and has not embraced the demographic challenges of this demographic.


But it is never just demographics, Lady Luck can and does also play a part. ie A number of nightclubs were exposure sites in this outbreak. Normally this should be a high risk setting with heavy breathing from dancing and singing/yelling, extremely close contact (as in body to body), long exposure times and yet cases were not generated unlike say in the South Korea Night Club District or at Crossroads Hotel (a lower risk setting). Just luck that evidently the people involved must have had low viral loads. The clubs were visited by the 5 in 7, or maybe even by those who were not at all infectious.

Meanwhile two people chatting at the Sporting Globe lead to a transmission, and people just present in the same retail store with no direct interchange or conversations also get infected (a visit from the 2 in 7).

 

[lovetravellingoz]

One hopes that the model being used to make these recommendations is sophisticated enough to incorporate a range of parameters, relevant to each particular outbreak.

Prof Allen Cheng was brought in for a reason.

See Department of Health and Human Services Victoria | Theoretical modelling to inform Victoria’s response to coronavirus (COVID-19)

Emerging from lockdown: modelling, outputs and assumptions

Emerging from lockdown: modelling, outputs and assumptions

msd.unimelb.edu.au

COVID MODELLING FOR INFRASTRUCTURE VICTORIA​

 

[lovetravellingoz]

And speaking of modelling. Hot off the computers.

“Our work shows that what Victoria is currently doing, with its ‘circuit-breaker’ lockdown is exactly the right thing to do,” Lead author Professor Tom Kompas said.

Study supports ‘circuit-breaker’ lockdown response to COVID-19 outbreaks

New research shows that circuit breaker lockdowns are one of the best responses to COVID-19 outbreaks for high income nations like Australia.

www.themandarin.com.au

Health and economic costs of early and delayed suppression and the unmitigated spread of COVID-19: The case of Australia

We compare the health and economic costs of early and delayed mandated suppression and the unmitigated spread of ‘first-wave’ COVID-19 infections in Australia in 2020. Using a fit-for-purpose SIQRM-compartment model for susceptible, infected, quarantined, recovered and mortalities on active...

journals.plos.org

 

[jakeseven7]

But the whole point is that each set of circumstances is different, each has its own parameters that feed into the modelling, regardless of total numbers. There is all sorts of parameters, time of spread, period when positives were infectious, level of contact they had with others, geographic distance of spread, nature of venues where it was spread, whether the cases were linked or not, , characteristics of the strain etc that all must be considered, not just an absolute number.

Victoria did not lockdown during the Black Rock cluster (which most commentators conveniently ignore). They went for a 5 day lockdown during the Melbourne Airport cluster. The actions taken both times worked. Obviously this time things were different.

Why even bother with this common sense... Evil GP’s run Victoria and eat AZ for breakfast didn’t you know. And AFF offers doctorates in epidemiology too

 

[Lynda2475]

Crossroads Hotel (a lower risk setting)

The health experts disagree with you, pubs are considered a high risk setting because they are indoors with lots of shouting. This is why whenever there are cases one of the first restrictions to come into play is the no standing and drinking rule.

 

[Lynda2475]

you're driven by politics and ideology.

Couldn't be further from the truth. I care for neither of those things, governments on the other hand do.

 

[justinbrett]

And speaking of modelling. Hot off the computers.

“Our work shows that what Victoria is currently doing, with its ‘circuit-breaker’ lockdown is exactly the right thing to do,” Lead author Professor Tom Kompas said.

Study supports ‘circuit-breaker’ lockdown response to COVID-19 outbreaks

New research shows that circuit breaker lockdowns are one of the best responses to COVID-19 outbreaks for high income nations like Australia.

www.themandarin.com.au

Health and economic costs of early and delayed suppression and the unmitigated spread of COVID-19: The case of Australia

We compare the health and economic costs of early and delayed mandated suppression and the unmitigated spread of ‘first-wave’ COVID-19 infections in Australia in 2020. Using a fit-for-purpose SIQRM-compartment model for susceptible, infected, quarantined, recovered and mortalities on active...

journals.plos.org

I’m not sure you can call a 14 day lockdown a circuit breaker. I think it’s lost that status, it’s just a lockdown now.

The lockdown argument is hard to argue on either side. If you cut your foot, you could get it amputated and the doctor could say he saved your life. You’ll never be able to prove it wasn’t needed - but now you don’t have a foot. And in this analogy, it means people have lost their lives and livelihoods due to hardship and mental health issues.

I’m not saying never lockdown, but it seems to be the first resort used by most states.

 

[Must...Fly!]

it’s just a lockdown

It always was. Circuit breaker is just a nice way to present it, and rather insultingly/condescendingly so IMO

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The health experts disagree with you, pubs are considered a high risk setting because they are indoors with lots of shouting. This is why whenever there are cases one of the first restrictions to come into play is the no standing and drinking rule.

Let me explain it below.

A number of nightclubs were exposure sites in this outbreak. Normally this should be a high risk setting with heavy breathing from dancing and singing/yelling, extremely close contact (as in body to body), long exposure times and yet cases were not generated unlike say in the South Korea Night Club District or at Crossroads Hotel (a lower risk setting).​

ie
A number of nightclubs were exposure sites in this outbreak... a high risk setting with heavy breathing from dancing and singing/yelling, extremely close contact (as in body to body)....and yet cases were not generated unlike say at Crossroads Hotel (a lower risk setting).

So that in relative terms is lower risk than a packed nightclub. Not low risk. And the nighctlubs that were on the exposure sites included some that are known to pack in people beyond what they should.

ie Crossroads Hotel, where in the outbreak people went for meals (pics below taken last year at the time of the outbreak)

​

is lower risk venue than say the Circus Bar (see below), and especially when it is wall to wall people which at the exposure time it would have been.

And it most assuredly is not a "family destination" which is how Crossroads Hotel describes itself to be..

​

 

[justinbrett]

They do? Which ones?


Let me explain it below.

A number of nightclubs were exposure sites in this outbreak. Normally this should be a high risk setting with heavy breathing from dancing and singing/yelling, extremely close contact (as in body to body), long exposure times and yet cases were not generated unlike say in the South Korea Night Club District or at Crossroads Hotel (a lower risk setting).​

ie
A number of nightclubs were exposure sites in this outbreak... a high risk setting with heavy breathing from dancing and singing/yelling, extremely close contact (as in body to body)....and yet cases were not generated unlike say at Crossroads Hotel (a lower risk setting).

So that in relative terms is lower risk than a packed nightclub. Not low risk. And the nighctlubs that were on the exposure sites included some that are known to pack in people beyond what they should.

ie Crossroads Hotel, described on its website https://www.crossroadshotel.com.au/about/ as

Located in Casula, just 35km southwest of Sydney’s CBD, The Crossroads Hotel has recently undergone an exciting and extensive renovation, transforming this landmark venue into a stylish and modern family destination.​

View attachment 249996


is lower risk venue than say the Circus Bar, and especially when it is wall to wall people.

And it most assuredly is not a "family destinantion".


View attachment 249998

​

There’s plenty of pubs in Sydney that look more like the second photo than the first. We’re arguing semantics here.

 

[Lynda2475]

There’s plenty of pubs in Sydney that look more like the second photo than the first. We’re arguing semantics here.

Exactly, and pubs and their gaming rooms were sources of several cases in Sydney. When restrictions are in play in NSW, Pubs are always subject to more restrictions than restaurants/cafes.

pics below taken last year at the time of the outbreak

Actually 7 of those 9 are photos taken from the official venue website (often reused on review sites) not related to the time of the outbreak at all, but good try.

Posting a picture of the bistro section (which is for seated meals) of Crossroads rather than bar, sports bar and gaming areas (which are much more crowded and pub like) deliberately only tells part of the story.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

There’s plenty of pubs in Sydney that look more like the second photo than the first.

I am sure there would be.

We’re arguing semantics here.

I agree with the first sentence of your comment, but I was specifically comparing the named nightclubs in Melbourne to the Crossroads exposure site and so semantics has naught to do with it. Other venues in Sydney are not relevant to what I wrote.


So yes I agree there would be venues in Sydney that are a higher risk than Crossroads. Probably there are lower risk ones too.

So if in Sydney you had a positive case (ie the Transport Trainer from Crossroads) visit one of the plenty of pubs in Sydney that look like the Circus would you go for:

A/ More cases than at the Crossroads than the trainer infected on his one visit there
B/ The same
C/ Less
D/ None at all because lady luck meant that the trainer's viral load at the time he was there was too low to infect people (ie Melbourne night clubs in this outbreak).

The Sporting Globe in Melbourne is a lower risk setting compared to the Melbourne Nightclubs, but yet it had a transmission and and the nightclubs did not. The virus did not infect someone at the nightclubs most likely not due to lack of opportunity, but rather that it was not virulent enough at that particular time to do so.

So the point I was making that it is not just the risk setting that determines if a transmission occurs, but that other variables are at play including how contagious the carrier is at that point in time.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I’m not sure you can call a 14 day lockdown a circuit breaker. I think it’s lost that status, it’s just a lockdown now.

The lockdown argument is hard to argue on either side. If you cut your foot, you could get it amputated and the doctor could say he saved your life. You’ll never be able to prove it wasn’t needed - but now you don’t have a foot. And in this analogy, it means people have lost their lives and livelihoods due to hardship and mental health issues.

I’m not saying never lockdown, but it seems to be the first resort used by most states.

From a community point of view I think this time it was necessary, though one could argue the toss as to the duration. They did not leap into it either, but waited until there was some case momentum. That some individuals did not present for testing has not helped as that greatly increased the chance of random unknown community cases, and that increased the likelihood of, and length of any lockdown action... Having a second strain, and outbreak also emerge has not helped with respect to the duration.


From a purely personal point of view it has sucked bigtime. We had to cancel my wife's 60th birthday party and cancel her present of 3 weeks in FNQ (We were meant to there now). With a disabled brother and 3 infirm elderly parents lockdowns are always challenging for us as well. And business wise given what my business is, it has helped to ensure that there will be virtually no business income till quite possibly 2022 now.

However to balance the things from a personal financial perspective the overall measures from all the governments combined did provide an opportunity via the sharemarket, if you had the time and if you made the right calls, to build wealth which I have taken advantage of both inside and outside of superannuation.

 

[dajop]

I’m not saying never lockdown, but it seems to be the first resort used by most states.

In the constant criticism of the Victorian Government, and I have raised this multiple times in this thread, no-one ever talks about the Black Rock/Smile Buffalo cluster as an example of where the government chose not to lock down. It just doesn't suit the narrative. Or is my memory failing me? I was in Melbourne and regional Vic at the time and don't remember a lock down. But maybe I'm wrong (and losing my memory), but that is always omitted from any discussions (here on AFF and more broadly in the media) of Victorian government responses.

 

[jakeseven7]

In the constant criticism of the Victorian Government, and I have raised this multiple times in this thread, no-one ever talks about the Black Rock/Smile Buffalo cluster as an example of where the government chose not to lock down. It just doesn't suit the narrative. Or is my memory failing me? I was in Melbourne and regional Vic at the time and don't remember a lock down. But maybe I'm wrong (and losing my memory), but that is always omitted from any discussions (here on AFF and more broadly in the media) of Victorian government responses.

Don’t worry we know about Black Rock up here in QLD and we are pretty hopeless at most things covid This outbreak is no Black Rock - they caught the seeding of that far earlier from the Sydney outbreak than they did this one from the Adelaide outbreak.

And although it’s crushing our business (again) with VIC being the centre of logistics in AU, it was the only choice they had really because of the woeful Federal vaccination rollout.

 

[Must...Fly!]

it was the only choice they had really because of the woeful Federal vaccination rollout.

Even if we'd had twice the number of people vaccinated, I don't think it would've made a bit of difference. No one has had that discussion yet in Australia and we're entirely reliant on the states to accept reality.

However the obvious benefit of this lockdown is the significant increase in vaccination numbers and less media scared tactics. We need more stories like this one for example to encourage. And less people like the Queensland premier.

‘We can treat it’: Mortality rate of rare condition linked to AstraZeneca shot plunges

Doctors are now confident they can detect and treat the rare blood clotting syndrome associated with AstraZeneca’s vaccine.

www.theage.com.au

 

[OATEK]

In the constant criticism of the Victorian Government, and I have raised this multiple times in this thread, no-one ever talks about the Black Rock/Smile Buffalo cluster as an example of where the government chose not to lock down. It just doesn't suit the narrative. Or is my memory failing me? I was in Melbourne and regional Vic at the time and don't remember a lock down. But maybe I'm wrong (and losing my memory), but that is always omitted from any discussions (here on AFF and more broadly in the media) of Victorian government responses.

It is impossible to draw clear comparisons between outbreaks, but there are some broad ones that many can see hence all the discussion not only here but in the media about why Melbourne? And why the whole state of Victoria? I think these are valid discussions whatever a person's politics might be assumed to be.

 

[justinbrett]

In the constant criticism of the Victorian Government, and I have raised this multiple times in this thread, no-one ever talks about the Black Rock/Smile Buffalo cluster as an example of where the government chose not to lock down. It just doesn't suit the narrative. Or is my memory failing me? I was in Melbourne and regional Vic at the time and don't remember a lock down. But maybe I'm wrong (and losing my memory), but that is always omitted from any discussions (here on AFF and more broadly in the media) of Victorian government responses.

It’s just hard to keep up with Victoria - but OK yes, they’ve done the right thing once. Bravo!

 

[serfty]

[moderator hat]

WARNING

Some Political/Parochial Posts and other related posts have been removed.

If any members continue to post in such a manner, they may be subject to sanction.​

[/moderator hat]

 

[lovetravellingoz]