Australian state border restrictions

[antycbr]

Its frustrating and I don't know whether you are in a frame of mind to hear the information, but currently Tasmania is vaccinating at about 30k jabs per week. I don't know whether Tasmania intends to increase capacity as such and whether the deliveries from the Commonwealth have been as per schedule (ie something akin to the Horizons document).

12+ population is estimated at about 466k, 333k have had at least 1 jab (of the 333k, 254k have had the second jab)

Thanks for your post. Hopefully sanity prevails, just come off a phone call with my parents and they're upset too. Anyway, Gutwein will be hearing from a few constituents is my prediction.

 

[nutwood]

By the sounds of it the plan is home quarantine is available until everyone has been offered a jab - about 100-odd have applied and been granted home quarantine.

You need to read the details of that home quarantine offer. For one thing, there's not allowed to be anyone else living at the quarantine premises.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

A more detailed article on Tas and its border thinking that I stumbled on.

MSN

 

[drron]

Thanks for your post. Hopefully sanity prevails, just come off a phone call with my parents and they're upset too. Anyway, Gutwein will be hearing from a few constituents is my prediction.

Unfortunately most of them will be asking not to open the borders on December 1 when it is predicted they will reach 90% >12s.
Just come back from dinner.Next table 6 senior locals all talking about this.Two were anti vaxxers,the others vaccinated but don't want to see the State Open up.This is in Launceston which is Gutwein's home.

However Tassie is doing well in the vaccination rate.57.8% of >16 second only to NSW.They have had a 6 week vaccination blitz,mobile vaccination units to all senior high schools and even for the homeless as well as 2 dedicated units for those with disabilities and their carers.

In 2020 Gutwein released a detailed plan to get out of lockdown and stuck to it.Better than most States.He has stated a road map will be released in mid October.

 

[arrow]

Unfortunately most of them will be asking not to open the borders on December 1 when it is predicted they will reach 90% >12s.
Just come back from dinner.Next table 6 senior locals all talking about this.Two were anti vaxxers,the others vaccinated but don't want to see the State Open up.This is in Launceston which is Gutwein's home.

However Tassie is doing well in the vaccination rate.57.8% of >16 second only to NSW.They have had a 6 week vaccination blitz,mobile vaccination units to all senior high schools and even for the homeless as well as 2 dedicated units for those with disabilities and their carers.

In 2020 Gutwein released a detailed plan to get out of lockdown and stuck to it.Better than most States.He has stated a road map will be released in mid October.

Yep, in WA, QLD & Tassie the parochial hobos are the majority unfortunately. If only that Palmer v WA high court case went the other way

 

[Must...Fly!]

Yep, in WA, QLD & Tassie the parochial hobos are the majority unfortunately. If only that Palmer v WA high court case went the other way

It may yet if challenged again.

Today one of my best friends (all live in WA) told me I was wanting thousands to die if I wanted the border open. That was hard to hear as it's obviously untrue.

The parochialism is at all time highs I fear.

 

[nutwood]

I read something at one time and I'm really frustrated that I can't remember who or when. I'm thinking John Ruskin but haven't nailed it down.
The gist was that when a scientist states something, they're generally wrong. That's my view of the current Tasmanian modelling. It may be right, it may be wrong. There are so many variables involved that I do not believe that any modelling can predict that after six months, there'll be this many infections and this many deaths. It's informed guess work and they'd do just as well to slaughter a chicken and examine the entrails.

 

[exceladdict]

I read something at one time and I'm really frustrated that I can't remember who or when. I'm thinking John Ruskin but haven't nailed it down.
The gist was that when a scientist states something, they're generally wrong. That's my view of the current Tasmanian modelling. It may be right, it may be wrong. There are so many variables involved that I do not believe that any modelling can predict that after six months, there'll be this many infections and this many deaths. It's informed guess work and they'd do just as well to slaughter a chicken and examine the entrails.

My data analytics lecturer two weeks ago, quoting statistician George Box: "All models are wrong, but some are useful"

 

[nutwood]

My data analytics lecturer two weeks ago, quoting statistician George Box: "All models are wrong, but some are useful"

One would hope he also extended the quote "Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful. However, the approximate nature of the model must always be borne in mind...."?

 

[jakeseven7]

Unfortunately most of them will be asking not to open the borders on December 1 when it is predicted they will reach 90% >12s.
Just come back from dinner.Next table 6 senior locals all talking about this.Two were anti vaxxers,the others vaccinated but don't want to see the State Open up.This is in Launceston which is Gutwein's home.

However Tassie is doing well in the vaccination rate.57.8% of >16 second only to NSW.They have had a 6 week vaccination blitz,mobile vaccination units to all senior high schools and even for the homeless as well as 2 dedicated units for those with disabilities and their carers.

In 2020 Gutwein released a detailed plan to get out of lockdown and stuck to it.Better than most States.He has stated a road map will be released in mid October.

Their first dose rate seems to have really slowed down though

 

[Seat0B]

TAS providing an update. Essentially saying they wont open their border at 80%.

Looking at their own modelling to be released in October

criticizing the NSW governments reopening plan - wow

Channeling Andrew Barr, unfortunately. ACT is also dragging its feet on opening our borders, despite the fact that surrounding NSW is going to open and running long before we are.

 

[ethernet]

I feel betrayed and angry that at 80%, the border between NSW regional and ACT will not be opened up to the vaccinated at 70%. Because in just 2 weeks, it may be 90%, even though moving goalposts of 12-16's have been added into that 80% or not. It is a bonus as a safety measure. Then the shifty ACT minister said a list of postcodes, but did not name them (at 80% there should be no list) Then said a few weeks later NSW can talk. Yet Queanbeyan is still brewing up new vectors. All to play mylord over <2 weeks. Snap lockdowns, deserve snap opens. Spits in the face of those who took vaccinations early.

On Tassie, I predict the unvaccinated will bunch up and break the rules, just like Hume (Vic) and W'gong. Could it be that NSW will play the +2 weeks for the vaccines to take effect card, now that fedgov is reducing benefits for bludgers? Looks like a rearguard action to stretch it to 1 December.

 

[Bundy Bear]

Once NSW opens up and does it slowly then I hopefully that will keep new cases of COVID in check, residents in other states will start to get jealous.
Those living in WA can enjoy their freedom but you hope Covid doesn’t come knocking to loudly.

 

[MooTime]

It may yet if challenged again.

Today one of my best friends (all live in WA) told me I was wanting thousands to die if I wanted the border open. That was hard to hear as it's obviously untrue.

The parochialism is at all time highs I fear.

I hear you.
I've had similar conversations with mates in other states, rather sad.
The scenario in states is so vast that is really no surprise I must say.

Oh well, 80% here we come & get rid of these lockdowns n international borders no more.

 

[oz_mark]

It may yet if challenged again.

Today one of my best friends (all live in WA) told me I was wanting thousands to die if I wanted the border open. That was hard to hear as it's obviously untrue.

The parochialism is at all time highs I fear.

That's the basic messaging from the government in WA. "People will die". Hard to see how to turn this around, and get the borders opened (at least to some level)

 

[exceladdict]

One would hope he also extended the quote "Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful. However, the approximate nature of the model must always be borne in mind...."?

Checked the slides - that's where the quote stopped, but he did add
- A model may be the best (according to some criteria) but that doesn't necessarily make it good, or true
- The real question of interest is whether the model is illuminating and useful

 

[Princess Fiona]

Once NSW opens up and does it slowly then I hopefully that will keep new cases of COVID in check, residents in other states will start to get jealous.
Those living in WA can enjoy their freedom but you hope Covid doesn’t come knocking to loudly.

It won’t keep new Covid cases in check. In fact they will increase substantially if people continue to get tested at the same rate they are now.

What should happen is cases will be primarily in fully vaccinated residents as 80 + % of NSW will be fully vaccinated.
Being vaccinated means that you are 10-20 times less likely to end up in hospital.
Net result is NSW can cautiously learn to have Covid circulating in the community without overwhelming healthcare whilst allowing us the freedom to live and work and travel. We will be continuing to strive to get as many protected by vaccines as possible including our children.

That is what the other Covid Zero states need to get on board with. NSW and Victoria will never return to what these states regard as minimal covid infections. It’s impossible.
Get vaccinated now. Lift your state to 80% and beyond otherwise you are sitting back and waiting for Covid to reach a vulnerable population.

 

[jakeseven7]

That's the basic messaging from the government in WA. "People will die". Hard to see how to turn this around, and get the borders opened (at least to some level)

It’s lies not messaging. Unsurprisingly it’s being swallowed though after residents have been beaten over the head with it for so long.

 

[mviy]

That's the basic messaging from the government in WA. "People will die". Hard to see how to turn this around, and get the borders opened (at least to some level)

Yes "People will die" with COVID-19, but many, many, many more will die from other causes.

In 2020 with an unvaccinated population people dying with COVID-19 was the 38th highest cause of death in Australia according to the ABS (Causes of Death, Australia, 2020). The median age of those that died with COVID-19 was 5 years older than the median age people died in 2020 i.e. COVID-19 mainly killed those who had already exceeded life expectancy.

More people died from things like catching the flu, or having an accidental fall than from COVID-19 and we don't close the state borders because of things like that.

Until states like WA come to accept that we will have to live with people dying with COVID-19 they'll keep their borders closed.

 

[oz_mark]

Until states like WA come to accept that we will have to live with people dying with COVID-19 they'll keep their borders closed.

Short of an outbreak, it's hard to see that mindset changing. Maybe when those people 'over east' are able to travel overseas....