Bonza Airline Discussion

[AIRwin]

Fly international where is presently an oligopoly? (if only they could get the slots)

And foreign ownership restrictions?

 

[k_sheep]

C'mon .... I need a ticket PPP-MCY in March .... would much rather go direct to MCY rather than BNE and going up the Bruce carpark .......

 

[cambriamarsh]

Yeah; certainly I'd think if the airports see Bonza being profitable off the back of them lowering fees, they'll reconsider and say "we'll have some of that". But then again, I'm equally sure the Bonza accountants will make damn sure there isn't any taxable profit for some time ...

Won't need the accountants help I suspect

 

[Saab34]

Bonza needs a local owner 51% I think to fly foreign routes. Happy to be corrected.

 

[drron]

That's offset with very low frequencies though. The MEL routes should be fine, MCY routes might be a bit more difficult due to the smaller catchment in MCY. OOL would have been a much safer bet.

I doubt it. much greater frequencies from the main players out of OOL. Beside really not much in the way of extra population
Gold coast 630000 plus a few from the Scenic Rim of 40000 total
Sunshine coast 359000 plus Noosa 57000 plus Gympie 53000

So potential customer base of 640000 v 470000.

And there is another fact that you are probably not aware of but the opening of the Sunshine coast University hospital caused a flow of referrals from areas right up the QLD coast north of Noosa.
Since SCUH opened I had worked in Bundaberg,Rockhampton and Townsville. When I said you have to be transferred to Brisbane or see a specialist there a few mentioned they would rather now go to the Sunshine Coast. So after the first few I said Brisbane or the Sunshine coast and the clear majority wanted the Sunshine Coast. Especially if it was to see a sub specialist.

 

[justinbrett]

I doubt it. much greater frequencies from the main players out of OOL. Beside really not much in the way of extra population
Gold coast 630000 plus a few from the Scenic Rim of 40000 total
Sunshine coast 359000 plus Noosa 57000 plus Gympie 53000

So potential customer base of 640000 v 470000.

And there is another fact that you are probably not aware of but the opening of the Sunshine coast University hospital caused a flow of referrals from areas right up the QLD coast north of Noosa.
Since SCUH opened I had worked in Bundaberg,Rockhampton and Townsville. When I said you have to be transferred to Brisbane or see a specialist there a few mentioned they would rather now go to the Sunshine Coast. So after the first few I said Brisbane or the Sunshine coast and the clear majority wanted the Sunshine Coast. Especially if it was to see a sub specialist.

But you can really only fly to MEL/SYD from OOL. Those aren't the routes for Bonza.

OOL is as close to BNE as AVV is to MEL (in time and distance). So I'm including all of BNE in the catchment for a LCC.

The road between BNE and MCY is a goat track with public transport near non existent, absolutely no comparison.

Not sure we're starting a Hospital airline here

Edit: Forgot to say, the population of the Gold Coast including Tweed is 722K. That's not even including Ballina/Byron which is also in the catchment.

 

[drron]

Have you travelled the "goat track" between BNE and MCY. Basically now 6 lanes all the way to the turn off from the Bruce to the motorway turn off which goes right past MCY.
Sure the traffic is usually very heavy but although a longer distance it doesn't take us as long as driving from the Gateway to Sanctuary Cove. Plus a local media here eager to hype the local airline.

 

[dajop]

Bonza needs a local owner 51% I think to fly foreign routes. Happy to be corrected.

No they don’t. They just need to be able to structure the company such that the entity that flies foreign routes is 51% locally owned. That’s how VA2 do it and VA1 before them did it. Neither entity as a whole is/was even close to 51% local ownership.

Not to say that this on the radar for Bonza. Foreign routes would seem a bit long and utilise too much time of their small fleet.

 

[justinbrett]

Have you travelled the "goat track" between BNE and MCY. Basically now 6 lanes all the way to the turn off from the Bruce to the motorway turn off which goes right past MCY.
Sure the traffic is usually very heavy but although a longer distance it doesn't take us as long as driving from the Gateway to Sanctuary Cove. Plus a local media here eager to hype the local airline.

Yes. Many, many times (my Dad lives in Bundy). It's not about the number of lanes, it's the traffic. Goat Track meaning it's well under what is required for the route.

Even getting from Brisbane to Costco at Northlakes can be an effort. I know a lot of people in Brisbane wouldn't risk the traffic to catch a flight. That's a bit of a deal breaker.

 

[dajop]

OOL is as close to BNE as AVV is to MEL (in time and distance). So I'm including all of BNE in the catchment for a LCC.

Not quite the same, although practically not that much different . If talking about distance from CBD to airport, Mel CBD -AVV is 55km/ 50+min. BNE CBD- OOL is 100km/70+min. But of course bringing up the rear 110km/85+min is MCY airport as measured from BNE CBD.

Of course this says nothing about the probability of being able drive those distances in that time!

 

[justinbrett]

Not quite the same, although practically not that much different . If talking about distance from CBD to airport, Mel CBD -AVV is 55km/ 50+min. BNE CBD- OOL is 100km/70+min. But of course bringing up the rear 110km/85+min is MCY airport as measured from BNE CBD.

Of course this says nothing about the probability of being able drive those distances in that time!

Except that Melbourne is not symmetrical and most of the suburbs are on the Eastern side, so the CBD isn't the centre, thus AVV is slightly further.

Extending to Brisbane, the population is greater south of the river, so a further vote for OOL.

But don't take my word for it - OOL has around 3x pax numbers than MCY. That's the current market. OOL is a much larger catchment area and has more inbound tourism. I didn't think that was a controversial statement, but there you go!

 

[HS-TQE]

That's offset with very low frequencies though. The MEL routes should be fine, MCY routes might be a bit more difficult due to the smaller catchment in MCY. OOL would have been a much safer bet.

MCY also has the neighbouring Gympie and half of the Moreton Bay (North Brisbane) catchments and is not just limited to the SCRC and NCC areas.

I suspect lower fees at MCY plus incentives from the SCRC may had got them to MCY in the first place. BNE was obviously not in contention, whereas OOL already had some competition on existing leisure routes Bonza are planning to fly out of MCY.

Whilst some routes may not work, a number of routes e.g MCY-CNS/TSV may likely stick around longer.

 

[HS-TQE]

No they don’t. They just need to be able to structure the company such that the entity that flies foreign routes is 51% locally owned. That’s how VA2 do it and VA1 before them did it. Neither entity as a whole is/was even close to 51% local ownership.

Not to say that this on the radar for Bonza. Foreign routes would seem a bit long and utilise too much time of their small fleet.

Ansett also did the same when they were wholly owned by NZ.
REX's Singaporean owners would have to do the same thing if they want to fly Trans-Tasman.

 

[justinbrett]

MCY also has the neighbouring Gympie and half of the Moreton Bay (North Brisbane) catchments and is not just limited to the SCRC and NCC areas.

I suspect lower fees at MCY plus incentives from the SCRC may had got them to MCY in the first place. BNE was obviously not in contention, whereas OOL already had some competition on existing leisure routes Bonza are planning to fly out of MCY.

Whilst some routes may not work, a number of routes e.g MCY-CNS/TSV may likely stick around longer.

Gold Coast has Tweed and all of NNSW - much greater population, plus all of Ipswich / Logan etc (which I would consider part of Brisbane).

Absolutely they chose MCY for lower fees. No argument there.

The issue is connecting two places that aren't major centres (ie, connecting two leisure destinations) isn't going to be that successful.

I'm sure many of the routes will work at low frequencies, I'm just saying a lot of these intra-QLD routes would have been far more successful from OOL.

 

[HS-TQE]

Gold Coast has Tweed and all of NNSW - much greater population, plus all of Ipswich / Logan etc (which I would consider part of Brisbane).

Absolutely they chose MCY for lower fees. No argument there.

The issue is connecting two places that aren't major centres (ie, connecting two leisure destinations) isn't going to be that successful.

I'm sure many of the routes will work at low frequencies, I'm just saying a lot of these intra-QLD routes would have been far more successful from OOL.

If we're going to include Tweed and Northern NSW, then Fraser Coast (Hervey Bay, Maryborough) could be included in MCY's catchment as well. Hervey Bay's current Airport service is QFLink prop service (2-3 daily) to BNE and Jetstar's 3-4 weekly to SYD

The Tweed/Northern NSW equivalent would be Ballina Airport.

 

[justinbrett]

If we're going to include Tweed and Northern NSW, then Fraser Coast (Hervey Bay, Maryborough) could be included in MCY's catchment as well. Hervey Bay's current Airport service is QFLink prop service to BNE and Jetstar's 3-4 weekly to SYD

Hervey Bay is about 2.5 hours drive from MCY, Maryborough is 2.

Ballina is 45 minutes from OOL. The airport is half in Tweed. Not quite the same.

 

[HS-TQE]

The issue is connecting two places that aren't major centres (ie, connecting two leisure destinations) isn't going to be that successful.

I'm sure many of the routes will work at low frequencies, I'm just saying a lot of these intra-QLD routes would have been far more successful from OOL.

I'd agree with the Leisure to Leisure routes generally not being successful.
AB could of course could do a 'Tiger' and sell through tickets from southern points and have MCY act as a 'defacto' hub (with the condition they'll need to collect their bags in MCY and recheck as they are a ULCC). Tiger did that in their early days out of the MEL base.
Considering baggage collection and check-in is next to each other in MCY, this shouldn't be a problem.

A lot of the intra-QLD frequencies has been tried out of OOL before through AirNorth and other regionals, it's been a mixed bag (e.g TSV on AirNorth) eventually not working out (but like with Bonza, the frequencies were only 2-3 weekly), but CNS being able to work on a daily JQ A320.

 

[justinbrett]

I'd agree with the Leisure to Leisure routes generally not being successful.
AB could of course could do a 'Tiger' and sell through tickets from southern points and have MCY act as a 'defacto' hub (with the condition they'll need to collect their bags in MCY and recheck as they are a ULCC). Tiger did that in their early days out of the MEL base.
Considering baggage collection and check-in is next to each other in MCY, this shouldn't be a problem.

A lot of the intra-QLD frequencies has been tried out of OOL before through AirNorth and other regionals, it's been a mixed bag (e.g TSV on AirNorth) eventually not working out (but like with Bonza, the frequencies were only 2-3 weekly), but CNS being able to work on a daily JQ A320.

And if they don't work for OOL they sure as hell won't work for MCY.

 

[HS-TQE]

And if they don't work for OOL they sure as hell won't work for MCY.

I think the case from here on in is how long is the Private Equity owners of AB (777) willing to put their money on their expected loses in the first few months considering they aren't expecting profit from the get go.

A lot of the regionals (not tied to QF or VA) on previously attempted regional routes out of OOL have a lot lower CapEx and revenue available.

 

[Harrison_133]

AB could of course could do a 'Tiger' and sell through tickets from southern points and have MCY act as a 'defacto' hub (with the condition they'll need to collect their bags in MCY and recheck as they are a ULCC). Tiger did that in their early days out of the MEL base.

Tiger never sold through tickets within Australia. They were strictly point-to-point only, you always had to buy seperate tickets. The only through tickets they sold was between Melbourne and Singapore with a stop in DRW/PER. That was it.

Re Bonza, I did see a comment under one of their recent social media posts asking if you would be able to buy a ticket between (for example) Cairns and Newcastle via the Sunshine Coast. Bonza replied saying they'd be point-to-point only, so they won't be selling connecting itineraries it seems.