Breeze & maybe Rex ?

[ozfflyer]

with Breeze about to shake up the aviation market in U.S., wonder if the likes of Rex have considered getting some E195s or A220s ?

With Qantas encrouching on Rex territory & Rex needing to find new aircraft in the next 5-10 years, wonder if they would consider some very cheap jets (E195s) or very efficient jets A220s.

It seems Breeze are getting their E195s from Azul for almost nothing, that they might only fly them 5 hours a day, not every day of the week & the cost per seat of the A220s seem incredibly low or the same as much bigger aircraft, so they can do missions that wouldn't be viable with larger aircraft. Lots of thin routes out there, both domestically & internationally.

Or will Qantas or Virgin or Air NZ get some ?

 

[Himeno]

I can see QF getting A220s to replace the Dash 8 and 717s.

 

[moa999]

Or will Qantas or Virgin or Air NZ get some ?

Virgin at one point had 21 Embraers. 18 190s and 3 170s. Not exactly successful.
Believe some of the 190s are still to find a new home and having sitting in the US desert for a few years

 

[ozfflyer]

Virgin at one point had 21 Embraers. 18 190s and 3 170s. Not exactly successful.
Believe some of the 190s are still to find a new home and having sitting in the US desert for a few years

Yes but va paid full freight. Lease rates must be in toilet now According to what breeze is paying. Admitably that's an in house deal effectively from one of neelemans airlines to another

 

[eastwest101]

Yes maybe unlikely for Rex, but it raises the question of whether VA couldn't make money with the E190 and E170 or is it the case that no airline n the world can make the economics of E190s/E170s work for them? If it was the later then you would expect that the Mojave desert would be neck deep in stored E190s and E170s so it's safe to presume that it might have been a VA specific or a lease specific issue rather than a general overall issue with the aircraft?

 

[Alyopsis]

Diversifying its fleet with all the associated expenses and inefficiencies would be the kiss of death for for REX. Impulse is the classic case study

 

[ozfflyer]

Yes maybe unlikely for Rex, but it raises the question of whether VA couldn't make money with the E190 and E170 or is it the case that no airline n the world can make the economics of E190s/E170s work for them? If it was the later then you would expect that the Mojave desert would be neck deep in stored E190s and E170s so it's safe to presume that it might have been a VA specific or a lease specific issue rather than a general overall issue with the aircraft?

Breeze guys says his lease costs are almost nothing, whatever that means, so he says he only has to operate them 5 hours a day & not 7 days a week. VA lease payments & Breeze costs must be miles apart.

 

[Bundy Bear]

Australia doesn’t have the city to city pairs that are available in the US.
Australia has 5 cities above 1million people and only 14 above 100,000 where the US has 300 cities above 100,000.
Rex will only survive in years to come if they can find a cheap 30-40 seat plane as those SAAB340s won’t last forever.
Qantas might look at the A220 to replace the 717 and up gauge a few of those flights that use Dash 8-400

 

[ozfflyer]

Australia doesn’t have the city to city pairs that are available in the US.
Australia has 5 cities above 1million people and only 14 above 100,000 where the US has 300 cities above 100,000.
Rex will only survive in years to come if they can find a cheap 30-40 seat plane as those SAAB340s won’t last forever.
Qantas might look at the A220 to replace the 717 and up gauge a few of those flights that use Dash 8-400

can think of dozen or more trans tasman routes that are too thin for a B737/A320 but might work with an A220 or cheap lease Emb 195. Another dozen or so domestics & not even trying.

When most of your fleet domestic is B738s, hard to compete, as aircraft too big. Both QF & VA are high cost.

 

[eastwest101]

Breeze guys says his lease costs are almost nothing, whatever that means, so he says he only has to operate them 5 hours a day & not 7 days a week. VA lease payments & Breeze costs must be miles apart.

Yep I was thinking that maybe the tax treatment of aircraft, the timing of the VA E190 leases and the fact that Qantaslink and Alliance have almost imported every single airworthy F100 and B717 into Australia might be another explanation of why the E170 and E190 appear "uneconomic", because the peer aircraft available basically have zero capital costs? So maybe nothing wrong with the aircraft - just competing against long lasting and almost zero cost airframes?

 

[ozfflyer]

Yep I was thinking that maybe the tax treatment of aircraft, the timing of the VA E190 leases and the fact that Qantaslink and Alliance have almost imported every single airworthy F100 and B717 into Australia might be another explanation of why the E170 and E190 appear "uneconomic", because the peer aircraft available basically have zero capital costs? So maybe nothing wrong with the aircraft - just competing against long lasting and almost zero cost airframes?

how much life left in F100s/B717s before they must be replaced ?

 

[dajop]

Surely it’s more complicated than lease costs? Against the marketing pull of the Qantas Frequent Flyer program, it’s extremely difficult for anyone to mount a serious operation in Australia, even just between secondary ports. QF would crush them.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

how much life left in F100s/B717s before they must be replaced ?

Dunno - but Aussie airlines keep buying up the world's fleets of F100s. So there must be some good reason for it.

 

[ozfflyer]

Surely it’s more complicated than lease costs? Against the marketing pull of the Qantas Frequent Flyer program, it’s extremely difficult for anyone to mount a serious operation in Australia, even just between secondary ports. QF would crush them.

think you overstate the perceived value of QF ff programme.

Much harder to earn points thru credit cards & in a recession, when fares will get insane cheap, why try & get a long haul ff ticket, when tickets are so cheap already, like $700 ish, return to LAX, from BNE or SYD.

Do Qantas really want to get a new aircraft type just to stop some airline like Rex from getting a few crumbs ?

Let’s face it, a huge chunk of QF profits come from golden triangle.

Qantas is very high cost. Rex probably isn’t but I don’t have the numbers.

Do Qantas even want to fly thin routes ? VA don’t.

 

[ozfflyer]

Dunno - but Aussie airlines keep buying up the world's fleets of F100s. So there must be some good reason for it.

don't think F100s have much range. They can't do the Tasman. Maybe it will be just left to Air NZ.

Look at routes like NTL/AKL & BNE/DUD. How can these make money with B738s ?

MCY/AKL could go year round with an A220-300.

Plenty of ports along Qld coast & some along NSW coast like CFS, would like directs to NZ & similarly, some of the old Kiwi routes to OZ, from PMR, HLZ + also ROT & others like Napier, Tauranga, Invercargill could work with very economical A220s but not with B738/A320s.

 

[dajop]

Well to allude to a well known aviation joke I definitely think someone could make a small fortune out of doing this.

 

[ozfflyer]

There must be some sort of subsidy paid by ntl & mcy to get services to akl. With an a220 might be more viable

Plus look at cbr trying to get more international flights. Nz with an a220 would be perfect starting point to akl , chc, zqn to start with

 

[p--and--t]

with Breeze about to shake up the aviation market in U.S., wonder if the likes of Rex have considered getting some E195s or A220s ?

With Qantas encrouching on Rex territory & Rex needing to find new aircraft in the next 5-10 years, wonder if they would consider some very cheap jets (E195s) or very efficient jets A220s.

It seems Breeze are getting their E195s from Azul for almost nothing, that they might only fly them 5 hours a day, not every day of the week & the cost per seat of the A220s seem incredibly low or the same as much bigger aircraft, so they can do missions that wouldn't be viable with larger aircraft. Lots of thin routes out there, both domestically & internationally.

Or will Qantas or Virgin or Air NZ get some ?

For REX to continue to operate to the current ports they need to stay with a smaller plane.

Pretty sure, I read somewhere on AFF or elsewhere the thing that makes thin routes uneconomical in Aussie country towns is the moment you use an aircraft with more than 50 seats. A whole lot of extra government bureaucracy cuts in with security personal, screening and other stuff.

The cost per passenger (especially with low loads) goes thru the roof. So as long as the destinations are small and can only sustain up to a couple dozen seats per flight and REX have planes with less than 50 seats the route remains viable.

If you swap to a larger plane (regardless of how many empty seats), the costs are too high to operate.

 

[ozfflyer]

For REX to continue to operate to the current ports they need to stay with a smaller plane.

Pretty sure, I read somewhere on AFF or elsewhere the thing that makes thin routes uneconomical in Aussie country towns is the moment you use an aircraft with more than 50 seats. A whole lot of extra government bureaucracy cuts in with security personal, screening and other stuff.

The cost per passenger (especially with low loads) goes thru the roof. So as long as the destinations are small and can only sustain up to a couple dozen seats per flight and REX have planes with less than 50 seats the route remains viable.

If you swap to a larger plane (regardless of how many empty seats), the costs are too high to operate.

IIRC the new rule for security is 40 seats.

Point is if Qantas cutting into Rex territory, Rex could get aircraft like the A220 to do jet routes (turboprops aren't cheaper for routes over something like 2 hours or even less). Qantas probably doesn't want to touch long thin routes, but with Rex's lower costs, it could just work for them. Maybe a New Zealand division would be way to get, with less bureaucracy. Don't think a New Zealand division would have to deal with Casa.

 

[p--and--t]

IIRC the new rule for security is 40 seats.

Point is if Qantas cutting into Rex territory, Rex could get aircraft like the A220 to do jet routes (turboprops aren't cheaper for routes over something like 2 hours or even less). Qantas probably doesn't want to touch long thin routes, but with Rex's lower costs, it could just work for them. Maybe a New Zealand division would be way to get, with less bureaucracy. Don't think a New Zealand division would have to deal with Casa.

OK so my memory failed me if its 40 seats. But the principle is the same even if larger planes are more efficient or cheaper to leaser, the airport on-costs will kill the viability in the smaller Aussie centres.

No knowledge and no idea and thus no comment from me on NZ situation.

I did note the opinion above re REX maybe not being able to sustain the costs of a mixed fleet anyway.