Breeze & maybe Rex ?

[astrosly]

My understanding is the CASA rule is for aircraft to be under 20000kg MTOW to avoid security screening. I'm not aware of it changing to over 40 seats. If it is the case, than the Dash8 300 with 50 seats cannot operate to Armidale which is currently does.

 

[ozfflyer]

My understanding is the CASA rule is for aircraft to be under 20000kg MTOW to avoid security screening. I'm not aware of it changing to over 40 seats. If it is the case, than the Dash8 300 with 50 seats cannot operate to Armidale which is currently does.

not sure if & when the new rule re security comes in but IIRC it's 40 seats limit. Can anyone clarify ? Is it under 40 seats no security or 40 seats & under.

 

[toowongman]

with Breeze about to shake up the aviation market in U.S., wonder if the likes of Rex have considered getting some E195s or A220s ?

If Rex could save 15 cents on something, they would. The last thing they need is another aircraft type. They probably have a junior in the office somewhere scoping out the worldwide used market for SAAB 340s and parts.

 

[ozfflyer]

If Rex could save 15 cents on something, they would. The last thing they need is another aircraft type. They probably have a junior in the office somewhere scoping out the worldwide used market for SAAB 340s and parts.

they have to respond to QF link. Big airlines go broke as well as little ones. Nothing to say Qantas can't go belly up.

 

[Quickstatus]

The moment they go over 50 seats they need an extra cabin crew

 

[ozfflyer]

The moment they go over 50 seats they need an extra cabin crew

yes but when does new 40 seat rule kick in for security ?

QF Dash 8-300 have 50 seats IIRC, which means they will need security. All Rex's Saab 340s are 34 or 36 seats, so will not require security.

 

[dajop]

Also, leasing aircraft is not the only cost. There is gaining approval, training staff, maintenance and infrastructure to deal with the new type.

Maybe there is an opportunity for A220s on thin routes, but not for Rex, who are very focussed on generating consistent returns from the markets wherever a Saab has a fit. Maybe another operator can make a go of it ... but Australian aviation has many failed airlines. Probably best fit is with Cobham operating for QF &/or VA (as eventual F100 or 717 replacement).

 

[ozfflyer]

Also, leasing aircraft is not the only cost. There is gaining approval, training staff, maintenance and infrastructure to deal with the new type.

Maybe there is an opportunity for A220s on thin routes, but not for Rex, who are very focussed on generating consistent returns from the markets wherever a Saab has a fit. Maybe another operator can make a go of it ... but Australian aviation has many failed airlines. Probably best fit is with Cobham operating for QF &/or VA (as eventual F100 or 717 replacement).

guess for Rex the big question is ... what aircraft do they replace the Saabs with ? Not too many years left.

 

[Quickstatus]

It’s actually 1 CC if 36 seats or less but can go to 1:50 with CASA approval.

 

[Quickstatus]

It won’t be the E-jets or A220. There are triple the size of the Saabs seat wise.
There is nothing currently that will replace them. Even the E135 are about 3 tonnes heavier than the Saabs at minimum operating weights for the same seats. Jets are probably too expensive in the market that Rex operates in. Often Rex flights are not even half full

guess for Rex the big question is ... what aircraft do they replace the Saabs with ? Not too many years left.

Rex believes it has another 10-15 years left (as per statement 2018).
Rex apparently also has a large store of spares.
I wouldn’t worry about it. They will work out something.

 

[ozfflyer]

It won’t be the E-jets or A220. There are triple the size of the Saabs seat wise.
There is nothing currently that will replace them. Even the E135 are about 3 tonnes heavier than the Saabs at minimum operating weights for the same seats. Jets are probably too expensive in the market that Rex operates in. Often Rex flights are not even half full



Rex believes it has another 10-15 years left (as per statement 2018).
Rex apparently also has a large store of spares.
I wouldn’t worry about it. They will work out something.

plenty of city pairs, that Rex could go into if Qantas keeps interferring with their bread & butter

 

[Quickstatus]

L

plenty of city pairs, that Rex could go into if Qantas keeps interferring with their bread & butter

...that anyone with funding could go into.
I suspect Rex is quite happy with its profitable corner of the aviation market.

 

[dajop]

plenty of city pairs, that Rex could go into if Qantas keeps interferring with their bread & butter

Any in mind? I wonder if ADL-BXG might work

 

[flyerboy]

yes but when does new 40 seat rule kick in for security ?

QF Dash 8-300 have 50 seats IIRC, which means they will need security. All Rex's Saab 340s are 34 or 36 seats, so will not require security.

The 40 seat rule is coming in with an amendment to the ATSRs. I believe they are still working out the final details but it's one of many upcoming changes.

 

[ozfflyer]

L

...that anyone with funding could go into.
I suspect Rex is quite happy with its profitable corner of the aviation market.

that Qantas is squeezing into. Nothing to stop Rex going the other way.

 

[Quickstatus]

It’s just the cut and thrust of competition.

Rex could push back on other routes but domestic thin routes in Australia are actually very thin - I can’t see a 100 seater being supported by the population on many of those thin routes.
Successful domestic routes need some frequency not just once a day.

Wagga has maybe 70-80000 people.
There are 5 ZL flights and 4 QFlink flights = about 470 seats a day between WGA and SYD. Plus 2 weekday flights between WGA and MEL. Flights are very seldom full.

I suspect to support a 2 airline each putting on 4x100 seats per day will need a town with possibly at least the size of Toowoomba 130-150000 and a significant business hub

 

[ozfflyer]

It’s just the cut and thrust of competition.

Rex could push back on other routes but domestic thin routes in Australia are actually very thin - I can’t see a 100 seater being supported by the population on those thin routes.
Successful domestic routes need some frequency not just once a day.

Wagga has maybe 70-80000 people.

There are 5 ZL flights and 4 QFlink flights = about 470 seats a day between WGA and SYD. Flights are very seldom full.

I suspect to support a 2 airline each putting on 4x100 seats per day will need a town with possibly at least the size of Canberra. There are not a lot of towns the size of Canberra and Canberra is a government hub with lots of travel .

no one is suggesting anyone putting 100 seaters on any thin route that currently has Saabs, but look at ABX.

There are 3 airlines flying SYD/ABX, QF, VA, ZL with lots of frequency.

Have been told that massive Vail resorts subsidise in some way, flights into EGE (Vail Eagle in Colorado), which takes aircraft up to B752s + military aircraft.

EGE is 30 min drive to Beaver Creek & another 5 to 10 mins to Vail itself, plus many other resorts within 60 mins, including Aspen in other direction. ASE often closes & only takes smaller jets up to about 70 seaters these days.

There are plenty of ways of subsidising a route, without paying cash, when you are a huge resort company.

1000s of Qdlers used to go to Falls Creek & Mt Hotham every winter. Now very few do.

At present the options are either;

1. fly to ABX & get a bus (2 hours plus) which makes many stops
2. fly to MEL & get an even longer bus trip (5 hours plus)

or drive from either airport & then have to put on chains etc.

Because SYD/ABX is all turboprops, there are not enough cheaper seats on any one flight, to make express coaches work, whereas eg. if BNE/ABX was 80/100 seaters, 2 express coaches could work & economies of scale kick in.

No exact idea what a seat on an F100 would cost BNE/ABX but presume around $200. If ABX gave some concessions on their charges initially it might actually work.

+ plenty of Albury residents would surely love a nonstop jet service.

VA could then also offer connections at BNE to all over Qld & overseas.

 

[Quickstatus]

$200 BNE-ABX unlikely. Certainly Not during peak ski season. And generally regional Australia airfares have always been higher relatively and absolutely compared to trunk routes on the coast between major cities.

Your idea presupposes that BNE is the origin and ABX is the destination. Immediately that means that seasonality is significant. In this case the ski season . And with seasonality where are the aircraft going to be deployed out of season

Only with ABX as the origin would a ABX-xx_ pair year round business case stack up to scrutiny.

Albury is not much bigger than Wagga. One has 10 flights the other 11 at their respective airports a day. Not a lot of difference. Small aircraft high frequency. Soon as you put on a 100 seat, that will take traffic away from existing flights.



Even QF gave up flying into Mt Hotham and they had a monopoly there.

Lots of ideas but I think the population of OZ is a tad small in regional areas.

As for Aspen/vail - I don’t think Hotham, Falls Creek is comparable to Aspen and Vail and I don’t think multinational billionaires see it as a destination.

Lots of regional routes in Australia depend on govt subsidies already.

 

[ozfflyer]

$200 BNE-ABX unlikely. Certainly Not during peak ski season. And generally regional Australia airfares have always been higher relatively and absolutely compared to trunk routes on the coast between major cities.

Your idea presupposes that BNE is the origin and ABX is the destination. Immediately that means that seasonality is significant. In this case the ski season . And with seasonality where are the aircraft going to be deploy

Only with ABX as the origin would a ABX-xx_ pair year round business case stack up to scrutiny.

Albury is not much bigger than Wagga. One has 10 flights the other 11 at their respective airports a day. Not a lot of difference. Small aircraft high frequency. Soon as you put on a 100 seat, that will take traffic away from existing flights.



Even QF gave up flying into Mt Hotham and they had a monopoly there.

Lots of ideas but I think the population of OZ is a tad small in regional areas.

As for Aspen/vail - I don’t think Hotham, Falls Creek is comparable to Aspen and Vail and I don’t think multinational billionaires see it as a destination.

Lots of regional routes in Australia depend on govt subsidies already.

$200 was best guess of a cost per seat for a charter of an F100/F70.

If eg. Vail were to subsidise the flights, they would then be aiming for as close to 100% loading as possible.

When you are the lift company at a resort & you can package up airfare/transfers/lift tickets, you can be very creative as it's all about getting people to the resort.

Just say the bare cost of return airfare + some ABX costs was $450 & transfers bare cost was $50 return & 7 days lift tickets $500, then Vail could decide to sell $1000 worth, perceived value for anywhere from $500 to $1000.

Plenty of average Australians/Kiwis & Americans ski in Colorado. You don't need to be wealthy. In fact, much cheaper than skiing OZ or NZ & far superior.

Once the resort has you there, you spend money at shops, restaurants & where you stay, which probably rent from resort or pay fees in some way, eg resort taxes.

 

[dajop]

Just a minor point of correction re: 100 seats. The A220-100 has 125 seats in all Y config (obviously with a small J cabin probably more like 118 seats. The A220-200 has 145 seats.