Coronavirus (COVID-19) Respiratory illness - Effect on Travel

[MEL_Traveller]

USA just upped its warning to Do Not Travel to China. Insurance policies now have to provide full refunds where appropriate.

China Travel Advisory

travel.state.gov

It's an interesting question. Smartraveller says you *may* be covered by your insurance if the warning is upgraded to 'do not travel'. This chart seems to indicate many of the Aussie majors may provide cover: Travel Insurance for Trips Against Advisory Warnings | What's Covered, but there could also be exclusions to this.. for example a 'do not travel' as a result of terrorism may not be covered (and who knows if this might also include epidemics/pandemics if specifically excluded by a particular policy).

Thankfully airlines, hotels and other tour providers are providing full refunds anyway - so hopefully the need to reply on travel insurance should be limited.

 

[tgh]

I have been grinding through this :

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30251-8/fulltext

Super interesting but there are light years between the brains creating this stuff and this old retired plodder….

 

[ozfflyer]

It's an interesting question. Smartraveller says you *may* be covered by your insurance if the warning is upgraded to 'do not travel'. This chart seems to indicate many of the Aussie majors may provide cover: Travel Insurance for Trips Against Advisory Warnings | What's Covered, but there could also be exclusions to this.. for example a 'do not travel' as a result of terrorism may not be covered (and who knows if this might also include epidemics/pandemics if specifically excluded by a particular policy).

Thankfully airlines, hotels and other tour providers are providing full refunds anyway - so hopefully the need to reply on travel insurance should be limited.

can airlines. hotels. tour providers afford to refund ? Some are running close to wind. Many airlines, hotel consolidators & tour providers have gone belly up recently. This might be the straw that breaks the camels back ?

 

[I love to travel]

can airlines. hotels. tour providers afford to refund ? Some are running close to wind. Many airlines, hotel consolidators & tour providers have gone belly up recently. This might be the straw that breaks the camels back ?

If HK close the border completely with China and perhaps Taiwan CX would be decimated. They will survive but with a much smaller footprint.
Hainan would be the first casualty for the Chinese airlines.

 

[Quickstatus]

I have been grinding through this :

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30251-8/fulltext

Super interesting but there are light years between the brains creating this stuff and this old retired plodder….

Mainland Chinese researchers. High level science highly technical paper. English impeccable. China has come a long way

.………
Feel sorry for the passengers on the evac flights . It’s one flight you DONT want to cough or sneeze. It’s a sure way to bring attention on you. Bad enough to try to keep flatus in check or at least silent.

 

[Quickstatus]

From the look of the graphs on JHU site,

Especially the curve for outside mainland China is flat.
Possibly a theory is that H-H transmission for this virus requires close contact - Chinese cities are highly population dense. Crowding increases transmissibility. Outside China the risk is lower if population densities are lower.
11 million people live in Wuhan - 7th most populous Chinese city.

 

[Quickstatus]

A bit off topic, but...

Given

• the a history of zero fatalities from these pandemics (like SARS, MERS) etc in Australia due to various factors including proactive action by governments and others
• current medical advice for 2019-nCov is basically fluids, rest, 14days self isolation at home
• 2019-nCov is just the latest variety of viral "flu".
• we have around 1,000 deaths per year in AU from very similar viral "flu's"

Why can't we as a nation take appropriate actions to significantly reduce the spread and mortality of the annual winter flu?

Just brainstorming - business/govt managers forcing staff to stay home for 14 days, sanitation of workplaces where someone has comedown with the flu, isolation of workmates who may have been infected.

Are we as a nation accepting 1,000 people can die a year because we don't want a productivity hit to the economy?

Just mulling over the reality of AU, as an off shoot from current pandemic.

I’ve been banging on about this upthread.
Flu deaths every year.... But we treat it differently. If everyone who has flu like symptoms or were in close contact with someone with flu were isolated at home for 7-14 days possibly the flu deaths would reduce???
[/QUOTE]

 

[Brettmcg]

Maybe it’s on AFF by now, somewhere, but on FT there’s a post about a QF flight SYD-HKG, departing SYD tonight (?), then onto WUH. Then, WUH-DRW.

A B747 aircraft SYD-HKG-WUH-DRW, then passengers transfer to another aircraft to Christmas Island:

Qantas special coronavirus charter - FlyerTalk Forums

Edit: Also a bit more here:

Qantas sending crew to Hong Kong in first step of Wuhan evacuation

Qantas will reportedly be sending a crew to Hong Kong tonight in the first step of the plan to evacuate Australians from Wuhan, China.

www.news.com.au

Crew are paxing up to HKG tonight on QF117, QF6031 HKG-WUH is scheduled to leave HKG at 2145 HK time on 02FEB20. The A/C will depart WUH as QF6032 at 0230 local on 03FEB20, with a scheduled arrival into DRW at 1000 local same day, Crew will pax back to SYD that day on a domestic flight.

 

[Digger11]

I have been grinding through this :

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30251-8/fulltext

Super interesting but there are light years between the brains creating this stuff and this old retired plodder….

Great article - anyone a scientist who can give us some plain language insight from this article ?

 

[Quickstatus]

S

Crew are paxing up to HKG tonight on QF117, QF6031 HKG-WUH is scheduled to leave HKG at 2145 HK time on 02FEB20. The A/C will depart WUH as QF6032 at 0230 local on 03FEB20, with a scheduled arrival into DRW at 1000 local same day, Crew will pax back to SYD that day on a domestic flight.

The crew are minimising the ground time in WUH. Will be interesting to know if they are going to stay onboard the 747 HKG-WUH-DRW and not set foot on WUH.

4hr 45min ground time should be plenty

Total distance 3261nm which is a shorter mission than a SYD-PER-SYD 3547nm
All up the mission should take 12 hours with quite a few legal hours up the sleeve in case.

 

[DC3]

.
Looking for links to official announcements by the Oz Government regarding the QF ‘evacuation’ flight from WUH. Any links for this?

 

[Quickstatus]

.
Looking for links to official announcements by the Oz Government regarding the QF ‘evacuation’ flight from WUH. Any links for this?

I think the AusGov will play this with discretion. No fanfare so as not to irritate the politburo in China, Less media. Get in get out.

 

[DC3]

I think the AusGov will play this with discretion. No fanfare so as not to irritate the politburo in China, Less media. Get in get out.

Reports that Kiwis will pay $NZ500 for their flight home to Kiwiland. No exact details on that flight either.

 

[Quickstatus]

Don’t know why the media saying up to 600 could be evacuated as the 747 can only carry 364 pax

 

[Quickstatus]

Many airlines, hotel consolidators & tour providers have gone belly up recently.

Which ones?

 

[Ric]

I am flying MNL > HKG > SYD on CX tomorrow morning. Transit at HKG is 75 mins.

Anything that I should be aware of on arrival at SYD? e.g.compulsory screening/testing? isolation?

 

[jase05]

Monash University has delayed the start of the semester by 1 week and has asked all students to stay away until mid March

'Unprecedented': All Monash students ordered to stay away until mid-March to counter coronavirus

Students at one of Australia's largest universities have been told to stay away until mid-March to ward off the coronavirus. The start of semester has been delayed for more than 80,000 students and lectures will be livestreamed for the first week.

www.theage.com.au

 

[teammongo]

Singapore has closed its border to Chinese visitors.

Scmp
TM

 

[Quickstatus]

Can we please get this 2019 n-COV into perspective:

Preliminary In-Season 2021-2022 Flu Burden Estimates

CDC's weekly coughulative in-season estimates of flu cases, medical visits, hospitalizations and deaths in the United States.

www.cdc.gov

 

[teammongo]

A bit off topic, but...

Given

• the a history of zero fatalities from these pandemics (like SARS, MERS) etc in Australia due to various factors including proactive action by governments and others
• current medical advice for 2019-nCov is basically fluids, rest, 14days self isolation at home
• 2019-nCov is just the latest variety of viral "flu".
• we have around 1,000 deaths per year in AU from very similar viral "flu's"

I would like to clarify a couple of points.

1. There were no MERS patients in Aus. It has a Ro<1, so without the animal reserviour unable to propogate to pandemic.
There was 1 SARS patient who travelled through NSW. SARS has a case fatality rate of 10%. So unsurprising there was no mortality. I think no fatalities from 1 patient is not an indicator of effective biosecurity.
There are currently NINE confirmed 2019-nCoV patients in Oz. Two who had secondary travel, exposing several hundred (at least).

2. "current medical advice for 2019-nCov is basically fluids, rest, 14days self isolation at home" which is true for those who remain relatively asymptomatic. The Lancet article outlined the experience of 99 patients. 76% required oxygen. I don't know how many Australian households have an oxygen delivery device at home.

3. "2019-nCov is just the latest variety of viral "flu"." It is not a flu. Just as SARS, MERS and for that matter EBOLA is not a flu. It is a betacoronavirus. It has different viral biology, pathophysiology. Influenza has been extensively studied. It has had clinical trial - to evaluate the effectiveness of different therapies. It has a effective vaccine that decreases infection rates by 60%. It has a public vaccination program. It has a public education program for both the community and health care providers. It has seasonal planning with essentially a years run up. 2019-nCoV has NONE of these.


4."we have around 1,000 deaths per year in AU from very similar viral "flu's". Australia has 310,000 cases of confirmed influenza last year. That is despite a vaccination rate of about 40%.
1000 people died, despite planning, vaccination, education, proven therapies, in a high income first world system.
2019-nCoV has a case fatality rate of an order higher. No community vaccine, unlikely community immunity.
It is grossly simplistic to dismiss this as a "flu"

The first step is education and preparedness.





TM