Coronavirus (COVID-19) Respiratory illness - Effect on Travel

This 'virus' has a 14 day incubation period and that may be the answer, but could someone explain how given Wuhan et al have been locked down for a few days how it has allegedly spread throughout much of mainland China so quickly in the last couple of days?
 
This 'virus' has a 14 day incubation period and that may be the answer, but could someone explain how given Wuhan et al have been locked down for a few days how it has allegedly spread throughout much of mainland China so quickly in the last couple of days?
It is impossible to seal of a large city completely...I know anecdotal stories of people leaving Wuhan in the middle of the night in a private car by taking the many back roads!
 
Still struggling to keep up with the airline suspensions.

This is a lengthy list, which now includes reductions or suspensions by the big middle east 3, but not complete as I can’t see QF or CX listed

Routes online nCoV list
 
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This is kinda funny. Last week I had to collect a parcel from our house we sold last year. A young couple and her parents moved in. Her parents arrived into Australia a few days ago. I had to knock on the door and her father answered. He spoke no English. I spoke no Mandarin or Cantonese <shrugs shoulders>. When we heard this on the TV tonight i did wonder ....

Wow, an Asian family. What are the odds?
 
This 'virus' has a 14 day incubation period and that may be the answer, but could someone explain how given Wuhan et al have been locked down for a few days how it has allegedly spread throughout much of mainland China so quickly in the last couple of days?


As you note, latency because of the lags between contracting the illness, showing symptoms, getting tested and recorded. The latest article from the Lancet cited by Quickstatus looks at movements out of Wuhan and elsewhere as a basis for estimating spread. It assumes transmission of the disease throughout December as well as in January. That suggests that the disease was spreading for more than a month before action to limit its spread started to impact.

There are of course many estimates in there because so much is unknown at this stage. The 14 days appears to be a conservative estimate of a maximum period between contracting the disease and showing symptoms.

cheers skip
 
This 'virus' has a 14 day incubation period and that may be the answer, but could someone explain how given Wuhan et al have been locked down for a few days how it has allegedly spread throughout much of mainland China so quickly in the last couple of days?
many got out before the lockdown and there is evidence of human to human transmission even when asymptomatic.
 
The only QF 747 not accounted in scheduled services currently is VH-OEF. I suspect this is now in HKG positioning for the HKG-WUH-DRW rescue. FR24/FA does not have any info
 
The only QF 747 not accounted in scheduled services currently is VH-OEF. I suspect this is now in HKG positioning for the HKG-WUH-DRW rescue. FR24/FA does not have any info

Maybe fools never differ, but I was concurrently going through the six B744s duties and noted OEF was on a special QF1370 MEL - SYD on Saturday evening i February but nil since. It would have had sufficient time to arrive in HKG as you suggest.

Was its flight (and accompanying details) "blocked" from public view as can be the case with other "sensitive" flights?
 
& this

Reconsider your overseas holiday now: Peter Dutton’s coronavirus warning
Travelling overseas soon? Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton has dramatically warned Aussies to reconsider their travel anywhere, as the coronavirus continues to spread.


How are airlines going to fill aircraft now ? Major cutbacks coming & layoffs ?

AUSTRALIANS should reconsider any overseas travel, Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton dramatically warned as the country increases its security measures to protect itself against the spread of the new coronavirus.
The senior Morrison Government Minister also took a swipe at Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk, accusing her of breaching the confidence of chief medical officers for political gain.

It follows Australia warning people not to travel to China, the epicentre of the outbreak, and blocking tourists coming from China from entering the country.

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Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton says Australians should reconsider their need to travel overseas at the moment. Picture: AAP Image/Lukas Coch
Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton says Australians should reconsider their need to travel overseas at the moment. Picture: AAP Image/Lukas Coch
But Mr Dutton this morning warned that the virus situation was not likely to improve in the short term.

“We hope China can contain the issue and that we can move on from it as quickly as possible, but it’s likely to be more protracted than that,” he told Sky News.

“We need to deal with that. We need Australians frankly, if they’re considering a holiday at the moment to reconsider whether an outbound overseas trip is what they want to do.



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“If they’ve thought about staying in parts of Australia, regional Australia, in particular, now might be a good time to book that holiday.”

He said holidaying at home could help tourist operators and local businesses struggling with the double hit of bushfires and coronavirus.

He advised Australians in China at the moment to leave sooner than later, with Qantas to suspend flights from the country after February 9.

“People should head the travel advice and not go to mainland China at this point in time,” Mr Dutton said.

NEW MEASURES TO PREVENT CORONAVIRUS SPREAD
* Foreign travellers who have left or passed through mainland China will be denied entry to Australia as officials try to contain the coronavirus. * They will not be allowed enter Australia for 14 days from the time they depart or transited through the Asian superpower.
* Australian citizens, permanent residents and their immediate family, dependents, legal guardians and spouses, will be excepted from the strict measures.
* This extends to airline staff who have used personal protective gear. * The temporary measure start Saturday and will be reviewed in a fortnight. * Advanced screening and reception arrangements will also be put in place at major airports.
* Australians and exempt individuals arriving out of mainland China, not just the Hubei province, are required to self-isolate for a period of 14 days from the time they leave the country.
*Thermometers and half a million masks will be provided to airports for those coming off flights and those who are interacting these people. * Travel advice for Australians for all of mainland China has been raised to level four, “do not travel”.
* “If you are currently in China, leave as soon as possible by commercial means. Many airlines have temporarily reduced or stopped flights,” Smart Traveller says on its website.
* Qantas will halt its two direct services to mainland China, saying entry restrictions imposed the United States, Singapore and other countries will impact crews working across the airline’s international network.
“If people are leaving Australia to go to China today against the advice then they’re putting themselves in a difficult position.

“The very strong advice from the Federal Government is please, do not travel, let us assess this over the next 14 days.”

While the Morrison Government is negotiating with Chinese authorities to evacuate Australians trapped within the locked-down city of Wuhan, where the coronavirus originated, he warned more assisted flights home may not be able to go ahead.

Meanwhile he took an extraordinary swipe at Ms Palaszczuk accusing her of “appalling” conduct.

“Yesterday, after she’d had a briefing from her medical officer, about (coronavirus travel bans), went out smugly calling for the Federal Government to act in relation to flights from China,” Mr Dutton said.

Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk has been accused of breaking confidence with the chief medical officers meeting. Picture: AAP/Image Sarah Marshall
Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk has been accused of breaking confidence with the chief medical officers meeting. Picture: AAP/Image Sarah Marshall
“No other Premier broke the confidence of the chief medical officers meeting, except Annastacia Palaszczuk for her own political purposes.

“I thought it was an absolutely disgraceful act yesterday and it undermined the confidence within that committee and she’s got a lot of questions to answer for.”

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said while the virus was serious, Australians should not to panic.

“It’s a very serious virus, but Australians should not panic. We should support the Australian-Chinese community, and we should know that as a Government, as a country, we are very well prepared,” Mr Frydenberg told the ABC.

CANCELLED CHINA FLIGHTS AMID CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK
  • AIR CANADA Air Canada said on January 28 it was cancelling select flights to China.
  • AIR FRANCE Air France said on January 30 it suspended all scheduled flights to and from mainland China until February 9.
  • AIR INDIA Air India said it was cancelling its Mumbai-Delhi-Shanghai flight from January 31 to February 14.
  • AIR NEW ZEALAND Air New Zealand said on February 1 it will suspend its Auckland-Shanghai service from February 9 to March 29 due to travel restrictions affecting crew and a decline in forward bookings.
  • AIR SEOUL South Korean budget carrier Air Seoul said on January 28 it had suspended all flights to China.
  • AIR TANZANIA Tanzania’s state-owned carrier said it would postpone its maiden flights to China. It had planned to begin charter flights to China in February.
  • AMERICAN AIRLINES American Airlines said it will cancel flights to Beijing and Shanghai starting January 31, and run through March 27, though it will continue to fly to Hong Kong.
  • BRITISH AIRWAYS BA said on January 30 it had cancelled all flights to mainland China for a month.
  • CATHAY PACIFIC AIRWAYS Hong Kong’s Cathay Pacific said it would progressively reduce capacity to and from mainland China by 50 per cent or more from January 30 to the end of March.
  • DELTA AIR LINES Delta Air Lines accelerated earlier announced suspensions: the last China-bound flights will leave on February 1, and the last returning flights from China will leave China on February 2.
  • EGYPTAIR Egypt’s flag carrier said on January 30 it would suspend all flights to and from China starting February 1.
  • EL AL ISRAEL AIRLINES El Al Israel Airlines said on January 30 it was suspending flights to Beijing until March 25. Israel’s Health Ministry said it will not allow flights from China to land at its airports.
  • ETHIOPIAN AIRLINES The African carrier on January 30 denied reports it had suspended all flights to China. The airline’s statement contradicted its passenger call centre, which told Reuters earlier in the day that flights to China had been suspended.
  • ETIHAD AIRWAYS Abu Dhabi’s Etihad Airways said passenger flights between Beijing and Nagoya, in Japan, had been temporarily suspended due to low travel demand.
  • FINNAIR Finland’s Finnair said it was cancelling all flights to mainland China between February 6 and February 29 and to Guangzhou between February 5 and March 29.
  • HAINAN AIRLINES China’s Hainan Airlines suspended its flights between Budapest, Hungary, and Chongqing from February 7 until March 27, Budapest Airport said on its Facebook page.
  • KENYA AIRWAYS Kenya Airways said on January 31 it has suspended all flights to China until further notice.
  • LION AIR Indonesia’s Lion Air Group said on January 29 it would suspend all flights to China from February. The airline has suspended six flights from several Indonesian cities to China so far and will suspend the rest next month. LOT POLISH AIRLINES Polish carrier LOT said it had decided to temporarily suspend its flights to Beijing until February 9.
  • LUFTHANSA Germany’s Lufthansa said on January 29 it was suspending Lufthansa, Swiss and Austrian Airlines flights to and from China until February 9. The airline continues to fly to Hong Kong, but it will stop taking bookings for flights to mainland China until the end of February.
  • PHILIPPINES AIRLINES Philippine Airlines said it would cut the number of flights between Manila and China by more than 50 per cent, starting this month. It would continue to serve Filipinos and Chinese nationals returning from the Lunar New Year holidays. QANTAS AIRWAYS Qantas said on February 1 it was suspending direct flights to mainland China. The Australian national carrier’s direct flights from Sydney to Beijing and Sydney to Shanghai will be halted from February 9 until March 29.
  • QATAR AIRWAYS Qatar Airways said on February 1 it will suspend flights to mainland China from Monday until further notice.
  • ROYAL AIR MAROC Moroccan airline Royal Air Maroc (RAM) has temporarily suspended its direct flights to China, the company said on January 30. RAM had on January 16 launched a direct air route with three flights weekly between its Casablanca hub and Beijing.
  • RUSSIA All Russian airlines, with the exception of national airline Aeroflot, will stop flying to China, Deputy Prime Minister Tatiana Golikova said.
  • RWANDAIR Rwanda carrier RwandAir has halted flights to and from China until further notice, the airline said in a statement on Friday. The decision will be reviewed later in February, it said.
  • SAS Nordic airline SAS said on January 30 it has decided to suspend all flights to and from Shanghai and Beijing from January 31 until February 9.
  • SCOOT Singapore airline Scoot said it was suspending all flights between Singapore and China from February 8, media reported.
  • SHANGHAI AIRLINES Shanghai Airlines said on January 31 it would suspend its Chengdu-Budapest flight between February 4 and March 28 and its Xi’an-Budapest flight between February 6 and March 26 according to a statement on the website of the Budapest Airport operator. The airline’s Shanghai-Budapest flight is unaffected.
  • SINGAPORE AIRLINES Singapore Airlines Ltd said on January 31 it would reduce capacity on some of its routes to mainland China in February. The cuts include flights to Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Xiamen and Chongqing, some of which are flown by regional arm SilkAir. Its budget carrier Scoot is also cutting back on flights to China.
  • TURKISH AIRLINES Turkey’s flag carrier said on January 30 it would decrease frequency on scheduled flights to Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai and Xian between February 5 and February 29.
  • TURKMENISTAN AIRLINES Turkmenistan Airlines, the Central Asian nation’s state carrier, said on February 1 it had suspended flights to and from Beijing.
  • UNITED AIRLINES Chicago-based United announced cancellations, saying last flights out of mainland China will be February 5, running through March 28. United had previously suspended 24 US flights to Beijing, Hong Kong and Shanghai between February 1 and February 8 because of a significant drop in demand.
  • UNITED PARCEL SERVICE UPS has cancelled 22 China flights, as a result of the Wuhan quarantines and normal manufacturing closures due to the Lunar New Year holiday, UPS Chief Executive David Abney said on January 30. He did not specify how many flights cancellations were due to the virus.
  • VIETJET Vietnam’s Vietjet will suspend all flights to and from China from February 1, the company said on January 31. Vietnam Airlines will suspend some flights to China.
  • VIETNAM AIRLINES Vietnam Airlines will suspend its flights to destinations in China next week over coronavirus concerns, the company said on Friday.
  • VIRGIN ATLANTIC Virgin Atlantic said on January 30 it would suspend its daily operations to Shanghai for two weeks from February 2. It cited declining demand for flights and the safety of its customers and staff.

*Source: Reuters
He said the evacuation of Australians in Wuhan had not received permission from China yet, but he believed approval was imminent.

But the government has been sending mixed messages on whether the evacuees will be charged.

Mr Dutton said they would have to pay about $1000 to cover the cost of the flights, but Mr Frydenberg insisted it would be provided free of charge.

“We won’t be charging the people to come to Australia without a cost … it’s very clear that the advice that we got originally was incorrect,” Mr Frydenberg said.
 
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& this

Reconsider your overseas holiday now: Peter Dutton’s coronavirus warning
Travelling overseas soon? Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton has dramatically warned Aussies to reconsider their travel anywhere, as the coronavirus continues to spread.


How are airlines going to fill aircraft now ? Major cutbacks coming & layoffs ?

The article is paywalled so if not against copyright or AFF rules, could someone please paste it in full?

ozflyer, fair enough sentiments but perhaps a few things to consider.

Lately IIRC Oz flights typically carry close to 50 per cent of passengers who originate from here, and 50 per cent who originate from overseas (I'm talking journeys, not ethnicity or citizenship.) It varies by route though.

Most international air fares are booked at least a few weeks in advance, sometimes far longer, even though travel agents claim that many are booking closer to date of travel than was so a decade ago.

Not everyone will cancel: far from it. Some people will regard any 'threat' as overstated or irrelevant to their destination. Another group may be so looking forward to their holiday that they'll still go. Some will have important business deals to close, and others family events like funerals, weddings and baptisms that they woudln't counternance missing.

And then there's those who won't be able to resist any drop in air fares and accommodation costs.

Some providers may not refund costs incurred by travellers (you'd hope that was wrong, but I daresay not all will come to the party.) So being unable to easily recoup costs may be a disincentive to cancelling. Unwise as it may seem, not all travellers have insurance (and perhaps some policies may exclude cancellation costs, or alternatively have a significant excess per claim.)

Still, it's a developing situation so above is far from definitive. (Let's see how wrong I was if assessed on above post-Easter 2020.)
 
Basically this: Australians should reconsider any overseas travel, Home Affairs Minister dramatically warned as the country increases its security measures to protect itself against the spread of the new coronavirus.

Unless he puts out a world wide Do Not Travel and/or airlines and accomodation places come to the party, then cancelling because of just this warning will mean That insurance companies won’t pay a cent.
 
Maybe fools never differ, but I was concurrently going through the six B744s duties and noted OEF was on a special QF1370 MEL - SYD on Saturday evening i February but nil since. It would have had sufficient time to arrive in HKG as you suggest.

Was its flight (and accompanying details) "blocked" from public view as can be the case with other "sensitive" flights?
According to Flightaware OEF is doing QF27 in an hours time.

 
Beat me to it @Comoman !! :) 👍

Instead VH-OEE will be operating SYD-HKG as QF6031 scheduled for departure in 45 min SYD-HKG (initially)

Is QFi staffing (crew change?) the major reason why it can't fly nonstop SYD - WUH, or does it have medical and Border Force/DFAT personnel to pick up in HKG given it has to then fly HKG - WUH - XCH - (PER?) - SYD?
 
@Melburnian1 ,

It will operate SYD-HKG. Maybe a crew change at HKG via an already prepositioned cabin and flight crew.

I also discussed this (in part) earlier at post #450 :

The mission is apparently HKG-WUH-DRW. (XCH cannot accomodate a 747). From there the passengers might be transferred to a 737 to XCH. It appears that only about 150 have registered to be evacuated (rumoured)

While it is possible to operate SYD-WUH, A SYD-WUH-DRW would be 7154nm (further than a MEL-SFO but shorter than SYD-DFW) Add in ground time, and it is likely that the crew may then have to slip in WUH due to regulatory hours. This is undesirable.

Note HKG-WUH-DRW is shorter in distance than SYD-PER-SYD. Including an rumoured 4.5hr ground time, the total mission time from HKG is likely 12-13 hours or so. Lots of spare regulatory time up the sleeve in case of delays at WUH. I wonder if the crew will step off the aircraft in WUH during the 4.5hr ground time. It maybe safer to remain on board.
 
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I believe VH-OEE will now be doing QF6031

Edit: Ah beaten to the punch!
 
many got out before the lockdown and there is evidence of human to human transmission even when asymptomatic.

Just surmising a scenario: 10,000s per week every week before the lockdown going in and out of Wuhan several/many who with a strong immune system "felt a bit ill/had a cough" throughout the country, didn't go to the doctor, didn't get diagnosed, still went to work travelled on public transport, ate in restaurants, used public toilets, went home to the family or relatives and passed it on. They got better without knowing they had it and mysteriously 2 weeks later hundreds/thousands come down all over the country with the infection not knowing where they got it from.
 

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