Coronavirus (COVID-19) Respiratory illness - Effect on Travel

[Pushka]

Staycation and holiday/spend discretionary $$ Domestically and regionally.

...........

Live data of CoronaVirus

View attachment 205224

But that suggests that 14300 approx people are still in active disease. Meaning that after 5 weeks some of them are taking a long time to become well.

 

[ozfflyer]

The article is paywalled so if not against copyright or AFF rules, could someone please paste it in full?

ozflyer, fair enough sentiments but perhaps a few things to consider.

Lately IIRC Oz flights typically carry close to 50 per cent of passengers who originate from here, and 50 per cent who originate from overseas (I'm talking journeys, not ethnicity or citizenship.) It varies by route though.

Most international air fares are booked at least a few weeks in advance, sometimes far longer, even though travel agents claim that many are booking closer to date of travel than was so a decade ago.

Not everyone will cancel: far from it. Some people will regard any 'threat' as overstated or irrelevant to their destination. Another group may be so looking forward to their holiday that they'll still go. Some will have important business deals to close, and others family events like funerals, weddings and baptisms that they woudln't counternance missing.

And then there's those who won't be able to resist any drop in air fares and accommodation costs.

Some providers may not refund costs incurred by travellers (you'd hope that was wrong, but I daresay not all will come to the party.) So being unable to easily recoup costs may be a disincentive to cancelling. Unwise as it may seem, not all travellers have insurance (and perhaps some policies may exclude cancellation costs, or alternatively have a significant excess per claim.)

Still, it's a developing situation so above is far from definitive. (Let's see how wrong I was if assessed on above post-Easter 2020.)

see edited above- full article

A lot of demand depends on number of factors

1) how many more cases/deaths

2) if this is controlled before peoples departure date (some people still book 11 months ahead)

3) where they were planning on going & where flights stopover

If indeed any refunds at all if cancel prebooked trip. Airlines can't afford to refund everybody who may wish to cancel.

Many will stay away from Asia in general. No one will choose to fly any Chinese airline & because of their name, China Airlines will suffer, even though not Chinese.

North America ? EU ? UK ? Might not be effected to any large degree, yet.

 

[tgh]

Cut and paste txt from the Courier Mail on line

AUSTRALIANS should reconsider any overseas travel, Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton dramatically warned as the country increases its security measures to protect itself against the spread of the new coronavirus.
The senior Morrison Government Minister also took a swipe at Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk, accusing her of breaching the confidence of chief medical officers for political gain.

It follows Australia warning people not to travel to China, the epicentre of the outbreak, and blocking tourists coming from China from entering the country.
But Mr Dutton this morning warned that the virus situation was not likely to improve in the short term.

** Admin has removed much of this post as quoting a whole article is potentially in breach of copyright. The whole article is available at Category: | The Courier Mail

 

[Pushka]

We are booked for Bali next month. Everything prepaid. Should be fine as Indonesia hasn’t reported any cases yet. Ah, yeah. As if.

 

[p--and--t]

Is QFi staffing (crew change?) the major reason why it can't fly nonstop SYD - WUH, or does it have medical and Border Force/DFAT personnel to pick up in HKG given it has to then fly HKG - WUH - XCH - (PER?) - SYD?

It will operate SYD-HKG. Maybe a crew change at HKG via an already prepositioned cabin and flight crew.

Pretty sure I read somewhere the crew to operate HKG-WUH-LEA left Australia on Friday's Syd-Hkg flight to preposition in HKG.

 

[Melburnian1]

We are booked for Bali next month. Everything prepaid. Should be fine as Indonesia hasn’t reported any cases yet. Ah, yeah. As if.

Earlier in this thread there was mention, or in media generally, that Indonesia apparently cannot yet undertake the testing that our and some other nations can.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Media reports 2 RAAF C-17s are being positioned to DRW for the final drop over to Christmas Island.

 

[Quickstatus]

We are booked for Bali next month. Everything prepaid. Should be fine as Indonesia hasn’t reported any cases yet. Ah, yeah. As if.

I worry a bit about indonesia because they have a relatively low Infectious vulnerability index.(IVI) of 0.56. The African countries are below 0.25 in many cases. But we know that already even before 2019 n-COV

Australia is 0.91
China is 0.66
Somalia is 0.00, Norway is 1.0
The IVI is not entirely accurate because of regional differences as remote Australia vs urban Australia

See here for info about IVI (trigger medical mumbojumbo)

Post automatically merged: Feb 2, 2020

Earlier in this thread there was mention, or in media generally, that Indonesia apparently cannot yet undertake the testing that our and some other nations can.

They are testing now

 

[DC3]

Now, no charge for charter flight passengers from Wuhan to The Island:

Federal Government backs down from charging coronavirus evacuees from China

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg blames "incorrect advice" for confusion after evacuees from the epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak were told they would be charged $1,000 for Qantas flights from China to Christmas Island.

www.abc.net.au

Edit: Also, “ ... it is still unclear when the first flight will leave for China with Mr Frydenberg confirming Australia was still seeking permission from Beijing ...”

 

[Quickstatus]

The bureaucracy collecting a few hundred thousand $$ is not worth the effort and political capital.

 

[Melburnian1]

QF6031 (VH-OEE, B744) departed SYD 22 late at 1307 hours on Sunday 2 February 2020, taking off at 1313 (don't tell latter to Chinese.)

Destination is HKG then WUH.

 

[get me outta here]

Our CMO advises that those coming from infectious zones who have a residence here because they are citizens etc should be allowed to self isolate at home. Visitors who would find that difficult due to no residence should not come.

 

[dajop]

We are booked for Bali next month. Everything prepaid. Should be fine as Indonesia hasn’t reported any cases yet. Ah, yeah. As if.

We’re off to Bali next weekend. I am not sure if it’s the right thing to do. If anywhere in Indonesia has a significant number of cases it would be Bali, with the huge number of tourists from China (more than # of Australian tourists there).

 

[DC3]

The bureaucracy collecting a few hundred thousand $$ is not worth the effort and political capital.

Definitely agree. Although, up until today, the Government position was to collect a passenger contribution.

Reading back, the odd AFFer liked the idea of (partial) cost recovery.

Edit: I had viewed cost recovery as somewhat mean spirited in this situation. But, hey, that’s just my thought

 

[Must...Fly!]

We’re off to Bali next weekend. I am not sure if it’s the right thing to do. If anywhere in Indonesia has a significant number of cases it would be Bali, with the huge number of tourists from China (more than # of Australian tourists there).

Indeed I have a friend going there tonight. I have advised him to get hand sanitiser as that's about all one can do to minimise risk, short of not going at all. Because we don't know how widespread if at all it is in Indonesia.

 

[Quickstatus]

I Actually agree with cost recovery but recognise it would always be difficult to collect

 

[I love to travel]

We’re off to Bali next weekend. I am not sure if it’s the right thing to do. If anywhere in Indonesia has a significant number of cases it would be Bali, with the huge number of tourists from China (more than # of Australian tourists there).

That is a horrible decision to make. Where are you travel insurance wise?

 

[Quickstatus]

don't know how widespread if at all it is in Indonesia.

Apparently they have tested 9 suspected but they were negative
Hand sanitiser in Bali would be a normal thing in any case.

Post automatically merged: Feb 2, 2020

Our CMO advises that those coming from infectious zones who have a residence here because they are citizens etc should be allowed to self isolate at home. Visitors who would find that difficult due to no residence should not come.

Except for the Wuhan evacuees

 

[DC3]

We’re off to Bali next weekend. I am not sure if it’s the right thing to do. If anywhere in Indonesia has a significant number of cases it would be Bali, with the huge number of tourists from China (more than # of Australian tourists there).

Any testing being done in Bali?

 

[RooFlyer]

University of Tasmania today reporting that they have 1,300 students currently IN China. In view of travel bans, they will be provided with on-line courses as much as possible.

Further ...

All Chinese students who are in our accommodation are being provided with self-contained apartments to support their 14-day self-isolation period. We are ensuring our students who are not in University accommodation have suitable places for self-isolation or, if not, we will provide it for them.

Edit: Pre term courses are running at UTAS, and I imagine at most other Unis. My course has students from all around the world, including from China. TBH the virus thing didn't cross my mind until just now (course continues next week)