Coronavirus (COVID-19) Respiratory illness - Effect on Travel

[Pushka]

Pretty disappointing....I wouldn't be happy at all!

Oh they were ropable! Their cruise was rediverted to Singapore which at the time - not sure now - had more cases than HK. And they were only in transit for an hour or so.

 

[Justinf]

Well, I'm still going to Japan in a week and a half.
Not cancelling or changing.
See what happens.

 

[Fifa]

Well, I'm still going to Japan in a week and a half.
Not cancelling or changing.
See what happens.

I am too.
Flying to NRT direct with QF in 2 days.
My daughter and SIL depart on Friday night with CI via Taipei.

 

[Pushka]

There aren’t any issues with Japan so why not?

 

[get me outta here]

TPE seems to have a few issues : Taiwan reports 56 swine flu deaths amid coronavirus outbreak

 

[Pushka]

TPE seems to have a few issues : Taiwan reports 56 swine flu deaths amid coronavirus outbreak

Oh. Let’s bring back swine flu into the mix. I think oldies are immune to this one and so would many of the 40-15 age group.

 

[DC3]

I haven't seen a separate thread as yet specifically on Chrissy Island, but there's some first hand accounts floating around, on experiences so far:

'Thousands of times worse than I imagined': Coronavirus evacuee slams Christmas Island

Australian coronavirus evacuees on Christmas Island say their children are "too scared to touch their beds" at the island's detention centre, where they will spend two weeks under quarantine.

www.abc.net.au

They must have known that they were going to is in reality a Detention Centre, temporarily now an "Isolation Centre".

Not what was in the Government brochures, apparently.

Edit: From the photos, rather prison-esk. But then again, it is a prison in a way, but by necessity if for no other reason

 

[get me outta here]

I think the coughroaches running around was unpleasant. Those and rats and the prisonlike facilities with everything bolted down would not be very welcoming and dirty bedding just to finish it off. I think we could’ve done better.

 

[get me outta here]

Article from the New York Times, just now - it doesn’t seem like these people are terribly well prepared, and NYC is full of people:

Last week, we told you that the city’s top health official said it was “inevitable” that the new strain of coronavirus, which began with an outbreak in China and has been spread by travelers across the globe, would arrive in New York.

Now, three patients in the city are being tested for the coronavirus.

[Coronavirus in New York: What we know so far.]

Here is the latest:

The patients

One patient is being treated at Bellevue Medical Center, and had a “fever, cough and a runny nose,” according to the city’s health commissioner, Dr. Oxiris Barbot.

Continue reading the main story

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Two others are being treated at hospitals in Flushing, Queens. They are both over 60 years old, with symptoms that include fever, coughing and shortness of breath, Dr. Barbot said.

All three had recently been in China.

The virus

The new coronavirus causes a respiratory illness whose symptoms include fever, cough and shortness of breath. Initially, it may resemble flu or a bad cold.

The virus can incubate for as long as two weeks before a person shows symptoms. During that time, there is an indication that some people can spread the virus to others.

Continue reading the main story

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For now, local health departments lack the ability to test for the virus, so samples have to be sent to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta. The turnaround time for results is 36 to 48 hours at a minimum.

The context

In China, the number of cases has been surging since the virus began to spread late last year. Today, there are more than 20,400 confirmed cases in China, with nearly all of the more than 420 deaths in that country.

The advice

City officials have tried to reassure the public that the risk to New Yorkers is low and that the level of preparedness is high.

Still, in trying to assuage fears, city officials have at times given different guidance than scientists at the C.D.C.

At a news conference, Mayor de Blasio said transmission of the coronavirus required “substantial contact with someone who already has it,” adding that “you don’t get it” from touching a surface.

The C.D.C., however, has more cautious advice. It said it’s not clear if someone can get the virus “by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose or possibly their eyes.”

 

[I love to travel]

I get the sense that whilst numbers continue to rise concerns from health authorities about mortality is decreasing. The lack of WHO meeting in a few days is also telling.

 

[Pushka]

Just based in Adelaide and this week (today actually) have had several thousands of dollars of consulting work halted. And we are only talking of interstate work.

 

[dajop]

I think the coughroaches running around was unpleasant.

coughroaches are a fact of life in the tropics. You can do your best to control them but they will always come back.

 

[Pushka]

coughroaches are a fact of life in the tropics. You can do your best to control them but they will always come back.

And in Sri Lanka they are huge! I’m betting China was no different. Maybe worse in some areas.
Shared bathroom? Welcome to Australia’s Public Hospitals even when on Private Health Insurance cover. Sharing a bathroom with 8 complete strangers with medical conditions is absolutely disgusting.

 

[PineappleSkip]

Turned over an envelope and did a risk assessment tonight after I read all this talk about changing and cancelling flights. Compared latest nCoV case numbers with populations, to get case rates per head of population. Very rough, just pulled the population data out of wikipedia and compared it with today’s tally of cases (20,677) by location.

This thing is still very centred in Hubei province, and to a lesser extent in China (other than Taiwan and HK). The rest of the world totals 194 cases, and there is no explosion in numbers, growth has been modest thus far. The data today also suggests some tapering off in the growth in China.

So here are Locations, no of reported cases, population, and the ratio of cases to population, working out from Wuhan. I’m sure you’ll let me know if my envelope sums are wrong .

Hubei province, 13252, 57.2m, 1/4,300
Rest of PRC, 7231, 1,371m, 1/189,600
Rest of World, 194, 6.300m, 1/32,400,000

Lower number, higher case rate, bigger risk. And below some selected global hotspots, in descending order of “scaryness”. Again number of cases, population, case rate per capita...

Singapore, 18, 5.6m, 1/311,000
Hong Kong, 17, 7.4m, 1/435,000
Australia, 12, 25.6m, 1/2,130,000
Taiwan, 10, 23.7m, 1/2,370,000
Thailand, 19, 69.4m, 1/3,650,000
Japan, 20, 126.1m, 1/6,300,000

Of course, pretty flaky analysis, doesn’t consider undetected/unreported cases, relative growth rates in case numbers by location, ability of a country to report, the low reliability of small numbers as indicators, and so on. Nor does it consider crowding and concentration of cases in cities. If you did, you’d note Australia’s relative “hotspot“.

Gold Coast, 2, 0.68m, 1/340,000.

Not seeking to instil fear, quite the opposite. We’re still entertaining visitors from Gold Coast this weekend, still aiming to transit HKG in a couple of weeks.

cheers skip

 

[drron]

News is better in Australia.The 3 tested in Tasmania cleared as are 4 in WA.

 

[juddles]

I understand that Christmas Island is not a luxury holiday experience, but I would far prefer to be stuck there than in China itself.

Not very comforting perhaps, but it has been made clear that anyone who is actually sick on Christmas Island will be immediately transferred to a mainland hospital - which I suspect would give them absolute best-in-the-world care.

 

[juddles]

Turned over an envelope and did a risk assessment tonight...

thanks for that way of looking at things PineSkip

One question I have for those more expert in statistics / etc is in the modelling of predicted number of cases: What is done to take into the equations the factor that completely skews the early days, revolving around the fact that "actual" cases and "identified" cases are two completely different things? (ie when a new disease is just starting, there is no way to identify it in a patient, then once it starts getting looked for, there is a period where there is an explosion of testing, with the associated initial huge spike in "confirmed" cases closely linked to the spike in testing)

 

[p--and--t]

I think the coughroaches running around was unpleasant. Those and rats and the prisonlike facilities with everything bolted down would not be very welcoming and dirty bedding just to finish it off. I think we could’ve done better.

I didn't see anything in that article about rats?

A bit of hypering of the situation by the ABC.

One person (Chen) reported one coughroach. They are on a semi tropical island. On more than a dozen visits to each of Darwin & Cairns, I can't remember a trip when I didn't see coughroaches around the place. I pay to have an investment property in Brisbane cleared of coughroaches annually. They are a fact of life in the tropics.

The same person (Chen) said "there were no facilities. Others said there were facilities e.g. children's playrooms etc.

Not sure how Chen knew it was worse than a prison, unless of course she has spent time in one?

One other said they had dirty linen. Was it dirty or linen stained by the water there. (I have stayed in a couple motels in country South Australia where the linen was a creamy brownish colour due to the minerals in the water when they washed them; even bleach wouldn't get them white again). Yet others said the cleanliness was fine.

Given it was a detention centre, I would expect it would be minimalist and designed to be semi-vandal proof; certainly not plush, nor fancy amenities, nor hotel standard. Realistic expectations folks!

I'll wait until there is more concrete, less emotive, reporting.

 

[Must...Fly!]

I am usually pretty neutral on the ABC but their reporting over the past few days in regards to this matter has been gutter-journalism at best.

Spotted a few masks around the place at MEL today but really not many.

I did see a Chinese air crew walk in to the terminal though. Each pilot had a cardboard box wrapped up in addition to their usual crew luggage. I didn't need to ask to know what was in those boxes!

 

[JohnM]

A bit of hypering of the situation by the ABC.

Noooooo... - impossible!