Coronavirus (COVID-19) Respiratory illness - Effect on Travel

[juddles]

Notwithstanding developments in Japan, do we have a thread focused on what's happening domestically in relation to national emergency response yet?

There is not a specific thread yet for that - but maybe that will change as the government eventually tightens (or relaxes?) things.

I think the basic parameters are included in this report: Morrison extends China travel ban as he enacts coronavirus emergency plan

Health Minister Greg Hunt was quoted as saying "In the event of a pandemic, the goal is to slow its spread if it gets to Australia. But with the number of countries that are now affected, we have to be realistic about the likelihood of containment strategies into the weeks ahead."

I interpret this as a sign the government is now officially expecting a wide spread outbreak in Australia. And I note the use of the term "weeks ahead" - not months.

The article mentions measures that in a "worst case" scenario include such things as locking down aged care homes, banning large gatherings, and suspending elective surgeries. In that scenario it would be easy to assume that non-essential travel will be banned also.

Imagine if the authorities forced a certain airline to cancel all non-essential air travel between regional towns, such as BCI-LRE?! That could have severe repercussions for some AFF members.......

 

[PineappleSkip]

Some snippets, mostly from today.

First this statistic from a week ago indicating what a devil this disease is to find. The most intensively tested population around would likely be passengers on Diamond Princess. Japan's Health Ministry reported that among the 634 that had then tested positive, 328 or just over half were asymptomatic at the time.

Also in Japan [200+ cases], Osaka’s prefectural government said

A woman working as a tour bus guide was reinfected with the coronavirus, testing positive after having recovered from an earlier infection

In South Korea (1,700+ cases) Reuters has reported that the Mayor of Daegu has died

In Iran 26 deaths have now been reported, more than all Chinese provinces other than Hubei. An article today from Time includes more reports from within of a large epidemic. A complete absence of testing kits until last Wednesday due to sanctions meant Doctors there were unable to confirm their suspicions about many earlier deaths. A further indication of the spread there is the many public officials infected; Time mentions the mayor from Tehran’s district 13, the head of Qom’s medical university, a reformist MP and the Deputy Health Minister, earlier seen moppong his brow at a press conference. To which we can now add infection of one of Iran's Vice Presidents, adding to the risk that others in Iran's Cabinet will contract the disease, further hampering their ability to respond.

Saudi Arabia has suspended Hajj visits as well as visitors from any country with cases (this would presumably include Australia). Note that this would apply to visitors taking an Umrah Haj - Haj light if you like,not the main Haj which is due to start in five months from tomorrow.

Reuters has published a very long list of flight suspensions and reductions by airline.

In the Europe outbreak, where Italy has now reported over 500 cases, I am keeping my eye on Spain, which has reported 10 cases since Monday, five of which were today.

BTW the sky is not falling, I keep chancing across things indicating the death rate is not as high as previously thought, but now I can't find them. New papers appear to be coming out as fast as new cases. Oh, and if you're interested in finance, here's an article today about Pandemic bonds, with which investors apparently bet against pandemics and get a good rate of return where none happen. Possibly not the best investment right now.

Cheers skip

 

[RooFlyer]

Sitting at DFW, departing for MEX, not a mask in sight

edit: Speaking of optimism, the guy at the gate reckons that the late inbound, just pulling up at the gate, will be cleared ready for us to board in 15 minutes

 

[drron]

Sitting at DFW, departing for MEX, not a mask in sight

edit: Speaking of optimism, the guy at the gate reckons that the late inbound, just pulling up at the gate, will be cleared ready for us to board in 15 minutes

Strange isn't it-the power of fear.
Covid-19 shouldn't have been your major concern in LOTFAP.16000 have died in the USA from this season's flu.Not much use if you had the flu vaccine from last year.It doesn't cover the Northern Hemisphere's new mutation.

 

[Pushka]

You still going to Bali?

Currently. Im hoping that something happens before we leave in a month and we don’t lose all our dosh. Obviously we are talking.

It occurred to us if Bali is the hot mess that everyone has presumed it to be despite no positive tests, then why haven’t ANY Aussie tourists returned from Bali and tested positive for the virus? It’s certainly within the time period for that to have happened.

Spend a week or 10 days in Bali. Get contact with the virus. Come home to Australia feeling like you have a cold. That changes to being unwell. Go to Aus Hospital. Test Positive. Media goes hyper. But that simply hasn’t happened. Why not?

 

[I love to travel]

Currently. Im hoping that something happens before we leave in a month and we don’t lose all our dosh. Obviously we are talking.

It occurred to us if Bali is the hot mess that everyone has presumed it to be despite no positive tests, then why haven’t ANY Aussie tourists returned from Bali and tested positive for the virus? It’s certainly within the time period for that to have happened.

Spend a week or 10 days in Bali. Get contact with the virus. Come home to Australia feeling like you have a cold. That changes to being unwell. Go to Aus Hospital. Test Positive. Media goes hyper. But that simply hasn’t happened. Why not?

We were too posing this question. There has to be a reason why not, how does this virus discriminate?

 

[juddles]

We were too posing this question. There has to be a reason why not, how does this virus discriminate?

I think an over-riding concept here is that the spread of a virus and the documentation of such movement are two different things - the latter usually never quite matching the former. The second is that there is an element of randomness in initial spread - who would have picked Iran and Italy as important, just a few weeks ago?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Currently. Im hoping that something happens before we leave in a month and we don’t lose all our dosh. Obviously we are talking.

Currently I am hoping that nothing really negative happens. What does it matter in terms of losing a bit of travel dosh compared to misery, and even death, for many?

Besides if it does go pear shaped you will likely lose a lot more money through your investments also going pear-shaped than anything you might lose on some travel non-refundable travel expenses.

(Note: I currently have one trip to Koh Samui in April, and another longer one to Europe departing in June).

 

[Pushka]

Currently I am hoping that nothing really negative happens. What does it matter in terms of losing a bit of travel dosh compared to misery, and even death, for many?

Besides if it does go pear shaped you will likely lose a lot more money through your investments also going pear-shaped than anything you might lose on some travel non-refundable travel expenses.

(Note: I currently have one trip to Koh Samui in April, and another longer one to Europe departing in June).

Yes I’m well aware of this on everyone’s retirement funds but I am powerless to do anything about that.

 

[get me outta here]

I’m a bit nervous about travelling to the US after reading this article on trumps war on science in regard to this virus from the UK Telegraph:

 

[OATEK]

I’m a bit nervous about travelling to the US after reading this article on trumps war on science in regard to this virus from the UK Telegraph:
View attachment 207012

As soon as I read the word "insane" in a supposedly learned article on economic matters I think of the click-bait ads you get about people going insane over some Aldi product.

 

[Scarlett]

We were too posing this question. There has to be a reason why not, how does this virus discriminate?

Could it be that many Aussies return from Bali and then just go back to work? And because the vast majority of people will suffer only minor effects, will just pop some paracetamol, some phenylepherine, or even better some of those three in one type drugs and "soldier on"?

And without wide scale testing or thermal scanners everywhere, it all just flies under the radar. Plus, being summertime, windows are open and airflow is better. Maybe it's here, maybe it's not, maybe it's still building in numbers.

I've had a dry cough for a couple of days now; felt a bit rundown and short of breath. Done some basic self-medication. But aside from making some jokes about having coronavirus, have just gone about my daily business. It's not even a dose of manflu, so just a minor irritation, whatever it is. Haven't been to Bali though...

The family Scarlett are booked for a fortnight in Oman, Abu Dhabi and Kuwait starting next week (courtesy of the UL J sale from last year), so I'm watching developments in the Middle East closely. So far, so good.

 

[RooFlyer]

I’m a bit nervous about travelling to the US after reading this article on trumps war on science in regard to this virus from the UK Telegraph:

I know we disagree on many things, especially Trump related But honestly, the virus is apolitical and I’m in theUSA the past week without a care (NYC and Alabama). The US in detail runs a pretty tight ship, with Washington very much in obscura. Travel to USA without worry about the virus. ( Off course Trump may get ya, but that’s a different story )

 

[drron]

So the Cycling Tour UAE cancelled after 2 Italian riders test positive for Covid 19.

Tour riders test positive for coronavirus

Australia’s Caleb Ewan is among the cyclists to be tested for the coronavirus after the UAE Tour was cancelled Thursday due to two Italian riders testing positive.

www.news.com.au

 

[lovetravellingoz]

So the Cycling Tour UAE cancelled after 2 Italian riders test positive for Covid 19.

Tour riders test positive for coronavirus

Australia’s Caleb Ewan is among the cyclists to be tested for the coronavirus after the UAE Tour was cancelled Thursday due to two Italian riders testing positive.

www.news.com.au

One has to wonder why Italians are featuring so prominently.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Coronavirus: Confirmed cases, deaths and recovered

Coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak: Latest news, information and updates

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www.pharmaceutical-technology.com

 

[Sabot]

Pineappleskip gives the best advice on this.
I am 73 and still intend going on my holiday with 2 weeks in Japan,bangkok and Singapore.

Just don't go to any raves and you'll be fine.
I think the glowsticking and fluorescent body paint might make infection more likely.

 

[get me outta here]

I know we disagree on many things, especially Trump related But honestly, the virus is apolitical and I’m in theUSA the past week without a care (NYC and Alabama). The US in detail runs a pretty tight ship, with Washington very much in obscura. Travel to USA without worry about the virus. ( Off course Trump may get ya, but that’s a different story )

My concern is what happens later rather than what is happening today or this week. I find the stable genius a bit of a worry given he is saying it is all under control and yet the virus is hardly even there yet. And, as we have seen recently, leaders who mislead can’t be trusted.

 

[Jos888]

My concern is what happens later rather than what is happening today or this week. I find the stable genius a bit of a worry given he is saying it is all under control and yet the virus is hardly even there yet. And, as we have seen recently, leaders who mislead can’t be trusted.

 

[drron]

Just don't go to any raves and you'll be fine.
I think the glowsticking and fluorescent body paint might make infection more likely.

I think my rave days are well behind me.The last was probably my buck's night in 1971.
Though I did lose a few hours after exchanging toasts with the Russian Ambassador in 1983.Each toast was the quick consumption of a full wineglass of vodka from the Ambassador.s supply.