Coronavirus (COVID-19) Respiratory illness - Effect on Travel

[drron]

My concern is what happens later rather than what is happening today or this week. I find the stable genius a bit of a worry given he is saying it is all under control and yet the virus is hardly even there yet. And, as we have seen recently, leaders who mislead can’t be trusted.

Yes Albo has been quite misleading lately hasn't he.

 

[PineappleSkip]

One has to wonder why Italians are featuring so prominently.

It's those $#@& wealthy globetrotting Europeans. An italian has reported positive in Nigeria, first confirmed case in South Central Africa. Hopefully there is scope to contain as he had only been in the country three days.

There appears to be a problem in Egypt. Only one case reported there a couple of days ago, in a traveller from Iran, but this report today from France of the two new serious cases in returnees from Egypt.

2 people returned from Egypt and hospitalized in serious condition. They came from "a group of 20 people who went (to the country) as part of an organized trip“

First case I’ve found of transmission out of Africa.

That said, I wouldn’t rush to can my travels based on numbers. The Johns Hopkins meter seems to have resolved its reporting glitches. Right now, it reports 4,116 cases outside China with no outcome yet. Worldometer claims world population, less China, as 6,330 billion. That indicates just in 1 in 1,500,000 a reported case. Ok, multiply by a factor of 10 to allow for unreported cases, and you still are on "lottery win" type odds.

If you have canned your travels, bask in the glory of having limited non-essential travel and doing civic duty.

Mrs Pineapple has failed to be civic but is reporting an excellent time in Paris and now the UK, after our visit to an empty lounge in HKG where opportunities for person to person transmission were very limited.

cheers skip

 

[lovetravellingoz]

COVID in Europe: Where are infections and deaths on the rise?

What are the latest figures from your country?

www.euronews.com

If you can believe these figures The Rest Of The World has now overtaken China in active cases. Presumably as the Chinese affected have been recovering with less new cases now occurring.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

There appears to be a problem in Egypt. Only one case reported there a couple of days ago, in a traveller from Iran, but this report today from France of the two new serious cases in returnees from Egypt.

Of note in that article as well:

France has in fact been officially in an epidemic state for normal seasonal flu since the start of February as thousands have fallen sick. Since the start of the flu season in November, 530 people have been admitted to intensive care and 44 people have died.

So conditions in Europe are obviously ripe for any coronavirus.

 

[Julesmac]

Yes Albo has been quite misleading lately hasn't he.

Well my bro and I are booked CK MEL-LHR, transit HK for 5 hours. May 12-25. We booked our tickets and travel insurance on Dec 28. My TA is booked same trip at the beginning of April & a week ago said - let's wait and see. Which I'm Happy to do, but cancelling tickets and leaving the trip for a few months just seems prudent to me. I'm fit & healthy, but have young grandchildren. I'm not going to risk it and if I sound like Henny Penny 'The sky's going to fall in, then so be it

 

[juddles]

...
There appears to be a problem in Egypt. Only one case reported there a couple of days ago, in a traveller from Iran, but this report today from France of the two new serious cases in returnees from Egypt.

....

Exactly!! This is the sort of falseness that is in itself a global pandemic.

There are so many countries who due to insufficient medical skill, or deliberate covering, will not be adding their pieces to the puzzle that the world medical effort is trying so hard to put together each day...

I find it absolutely improbable that Indonesia does not have an outbreak. I would also expect that in places like Bali, that are overwhelmingly reliant on tourism dollars, that the attraction of hiding anything for as long as possible is an understandable practice. But all this is short term - let's revisit the Bali situation in a couple of weeks and see what has actually been happening there

 

[Pushka]

Exactly!! This is the sort of falseness that is in itself a global pandemic.

There are so many countries who due to insufficient medical skill, or deliberate covering, will not be adding their pieces to the puzzle that the world medical effort is trying so hard to put together each day...

I find it absolutely improbable that Indonesia does not have an outbreak. I would also expect that in places like Bali, that are overwhelmingly reliant on tourism dollars, that the attraction of hiding anything for as long as possible is an understandable practice. But all this is short term - let's revisit the Bali situation in a couple of weeks and see what has actually been happening there

I agree with your observations about Bali but given the degree of the Aussie tourist churn every day of the week, how come we aren't getting an avalanche of those former tourists into our hospitals testing positive on arrival after a holiday there?

 

[juddles]

I agree with your observations about Bali but given the degree of the Aussie tourist churn every day of the week, how come we aren't getting an avalanche of those former tourists into our hospitals testing positive on arrival after a holiday there?

Understand your point, but given that Bali is perhaps a mecca for younger rather than older aussies on average, and this virus is very mild for such people, (invisible or unnoticed in most) and this is just a few weeks into the rapid global expansion, I severely doubt that many, if ANY, have been tested. Hence my comment we may see a different picture in a few weeks.... To my knowledge Australia does not have any sort of blanket testing.

 

[juddles]

Just looked at the ABC online news and found this gem of journalistic glory:

Are councils robbing us of a 'magic ingredient' in the fight against coronavirus?

The removal of soap dispensers from public toilets has stoked concerns that local councils are washing their hands of a simple and effective way to help to halt the spread of coronavirus.

www.abc.net.au

I quote:

"The removal of soap dispensers from public toilets has stoked concerns local councils are washing their hands of a simple and effective way to help to halt the spread of coronavirus........There have been as many as 23 confirmed cases of coronavirus in Australia — eight of them in Queensland — and there are fears the virus will continue to spread."

This is what I hate about modern journalism - there seems to be no accountability for misleading statements. Yes, there may be 23 cases of confirmed corona virus in Aussie, but this article deliberately does not say how these cases came to be here. In a piece about public toilet hygiene it insinuates a reality that is not (yet) real.

 

[Pushka]

Understand your point, but given that Bali is perhaps a mecca for younger rather than older aussies on average, and this virus is very mild for such people, (invisible or unnoticed in most) and this is just a few weeks into the rapid global expansion, I severely doubt that many, if ANY, have been tested. Hence my comment we may see a different picture in a few weeks.... To my knowledge Australia does not have any sort of blanket testing.

No they don't have blanket testing on arrival to my knowledge. My SIL is in a large Public hospital in casualty and if someone reports with appropriate symptoms and with a history of travel then they are treated as a corona case until proven otherwise by testing. So if someone rocked up with a respiratory Infection and recent travel overseas anywhere - they would be tested. Agree, time will tell

 

[PineappleSkip]

COVID in Europe: Where are infections and deaths on the rise?

What are the latest figures from your country?

www.euronews.com

If you can believe these figures The Rest Of The World has now overtaken China in active cases.

Yes, on Wednesday. South Korea alone reported more new cases [505] than China did [433] yesterday.

To my knowledge Australia does not have any sort of blanket testing.

... and won't do. Not a wise way to prioritise public health resources when we expect them to be stretched sooner of later. The google translation of the response in Denmark to the first case explains why the case and his family were sent home and indicates a new game plan:

The hospital has agreed that the family will continue to be in home insulation as they are well-being and do not need hospital treatment. The hospital will be in daily contact with the family and if they need examination or treatment in the hospital, they can be admitted immediately. ...
In our new guidelines, we had just recommended the possibility of home insulation, including by patients infected with the new coronavirus. If you are not so ill that you need hospital treatment, then it is best to be home, so you do not risk spreading infection in the hospital, ”says Søren Brostrøm, director of the National Board of Health.

cheers skip

 

[juddles]

Yes, on Wednesday. South Korea alone reported more new cases [505] than China did [433] yesterday.


... and won't do. Not a wise way to prioritise public health resources when we expect them to be stretched sooner of later. The google translation of the response in Denmark to the first case explains why the case and his family were sent home and indicates a new game plan:


cheers skip

Thanks for that - except I accidentally clicked on the foreign language version which was just a tad out of my skills at this wee hour....

To be clear, my expressing that I believed that Australia does not conduct "blanket testing' was not in any way an expression of a belief that is a desired thing. It was simply my clarification of what I thought was reality. I do really think that many people believe that essentially everyone is tested, even though that concept is absurd, and this then fuels the inferno of false belief in infection rates, mortality, etc.

Self-isolation seems to me to be the simple and best way of dealing with any suspected or even confirmed cases - if they are not in dire medical need.

 

[disruptivedolphin]

In South Korea (1,700+ cases) Reuters has reported that the Mayor of Daegu has died

Ah, no.

 

[Sabot]

Just looked at the ABC online news and found this gem of journalistic glory:

Are councils robbing us of a 'magic ingredient' in the fight against coronavirus?

The removal of soap dispensers from public toilets has stoked concerns that local councils are washing their hands of a simple and effective way to help to halt the spread of coronavirus.

www.abc.net.au

I quote:

"The removal of soap dispensers from public toilets has stoked concerns local councils are washing their hands of a simple and effective way to help to halt the spread of coronavirus........There have been as many as 23 confirmed cases of coronavirus in Australia — eight of them in Queensland — and there are fears the virus will continue to spread."

This is what I hate about modern journalism - there seems to be no accountability for misleading statements. Yes, there may be 23 cases of confirmed corona virus in Aussie, but this article deliberately does not say how these cases came to be here. In a piece about public toilet hygiene it insinuates a reality that is not (yet) real.

Removing soap from toilets (coronavirus considerations aside) is pretty retarded, cameras should be installed in public toilets (sink area not cubicles) to dissuade vandalism and some of the other unwanted behaviours they seem to attract. Anyone caught damaging them gets picked up by the police and shot at close range with a .45/70

 

[PineappleSkip]

Interesting report (in German) from Vienna: a 71 year old man (no recent travel history) was in hospital with flu symptoms for 10 days before he tested positive.

https://orf.at/stories/3155857/

A 72-year-old man is the first confirmed coronavirus case in Vienna. He had already been in the Rudolfstiftung hospital in Vienna-Landstrasse for ten days with classic flu symptoms... the chain of infection is still unclear - the patient did not indicate any travel activity when he was admitted to the hospital ten days ago.

One wonders. Failed to test previously? Tests unreliable and producing false negatives? False positive result? Value of confirmed case statistics?

Also a discussion in this article of the merits and demerits of travel restrictionns.

Cheers skip

 

[Sabot]

Interesting report (in German) from Vienna: a 71 year old man (no recent travel history) was in hospital with flu symptoms for 10 days before he tested positive.

https://orf.at/stories/3155857/



One wonders. Failed to test previously? Tests unreliable and producing false negatives? False positive result? Value of confirmed case statistics?

Cheers skip

We have another confirmed case in QLD today.
A woman from Iran.

 

[Jenya]

Self-isolation seems to me to be the simple and best way of dealing with any suspected or even confirmed cases - if they are not in dire medical need.

as soon as they don't live in apartment block sharing forced ventilation (and lifts) with other residents.

 

[OATEK]

The cruise is now in doubt as Israel has extended the ban to visitors who have been to Japan, Singapore & Thailand. All depends on whether transiting SIN on BA16 counts as "visiting" Singapore.

An update on our Mediterranean cruise that includes stops in Cairo and Jerusalem (via Ashdod). The amplified conditions about who will be refused boarding means that we will NOT be excluded for transitting SIN:
Effective immediately until further notice:
Guests who have travelled from, to or through China, South Korean (applicable to
connecting flights via this location), Macau, Hong Kong, Singapore, Thailand,
Japan (not applicable to connecting flights) and Italy within 14 days prior to their
embarkation, will be denied boarding on the Three Continents cruise - this is in
accordance with the requirements of Israeli public health authorities. Guests
impacted by this should contact their original booking agent so that alternative
options can be presented by Celestyal Cruises.

Thus for now transitting HKG or SIN will not exclude someone from the cruise or entry to Israel, but travelling in one of the proscribed countries (eg a stamp in your passport) or being from one of those countries (a citizen) will see you banned.

We have had this cruise booked for 18months, and if we transferred there is no suitable date on the horizon (eg rest of 2020/2021. We are too late now to cancel being less than a month out, and would lnot get a refund. So we have agreed to get on with it and enjoy the adventure without looking over our shoulders (while taking sensible precautions).

 

[tgh]

a few rays of sunshine are appearing

source unverified

"Remdesivir is currently in Phase III trials in China and at the University of Nebraska Medical Center (UNMC) in Omaha. Gilead has said they could have 100,000 doses ready in 3 days if the go-ahead is given for treatment.

Other anti-virals:
Favipiravir (Toyota Chemical) being trialed in Japan
Galidesivir (Biochryst) status unknown

Others:
Chloroquine phosphate, Chinese are claiming much quicker reduction of viral load, expanded trials in progress
BOB-001 MAB, (InflaRX) C5a pathway to reduce viral load in severe patients, active trial in China
Vaccines :
mRNA1273, (Moderna), already in a safety trial
INO-4800 (INO), about 2-3 months from a safety trial
Anti-IVB antibody oral vaccine, Gallilee Research Institute, Israel, about six weeks from a safety trial, researchers there extremely confident

 

[lovetravellingoz]

as soon as they don't live in apartment block sharing forced ventilation (and lifts) with other residents.

As per earlier in this thread, the only time this has been a problem in the medical papers I have read was with SARS when :
1/ The sewerage risers were not built correctly and had a problem casing back-ips
2/ The ground zero carrier in the building had an unusually high production of the virus in his urine and faeces
3/ Other residents were with powerful self-installed fans were blowing in air from outside of the building through their toilets .
These all combined to cause the virus to be spread,


I have not seen any medical reports indicating that normal correctly installed and maintained air conditioning ventilation systems have been a problem in any building for the occupants. If you have a scientific source indicating otherwise, please share it. Legionella being a special case and mainly a problem for for those downstream of where a poorly maintained AC unit of particular types have been operating.


Now people spreading germs and viruses by touch. Yes that is a huge problem in many ways. For example when cleaning you should have one set of cleaning materials for your bathrooms/toilets and another for say kitchens. If you use the same in both sets of rooms, then you will be contaminating your own dwelling office etc).


PS. One of the things I have done for the last decade is to train Facility and Property Managers how to better maintain buildings including all Building Services. This includes for Hospitals and Aged Care Facilities where the occupants are more susceptible to any problems.