Discussion on QF leaving OW

[rickylee]

I have always thought that, except for EK, the biggest competitors to QF is its own OW partners, especially given the SCs and QFF points earned on those airlines. This is especially the case for BA and CX, but also now MH and JL to lesser extents. The recent moves by QF to reduce the haul of points and SCs from flying on those airlines I think redresses the issue and actually makes it less likely that QF would quit OW - there would be not much point doing the adjustments if you are quitting anyway.

Of course, I also see the possibility that doing this would build a case of QFFs not really flying OW partners anyway, so let's quit. I think this is still unlikely given the existing codeshares and recent changes to the QF network to fly to OW partner hubs, such as DFW (for AA) and SCL (for LA).

There is also the absence of a viable alternative, for something is always better than nothing. No competing airline alliance would take QF with the EK alliance on its back. Given the rifts with BA and CX over the alliance, potential alternative alliances would also be wary of the degree of loyalty that would be shown by QF. I think the only way QF would switch alliances is if a foreign non-OW airline took a 25% stake in Qantas (as restricted by the Qantas Sale Act) - and that is also unlikely to happen in the near future.

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Dr Ricky Lee
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[dk4]

I think this is still unlikely given the existing codeshares and recent changes to the QF network to fly to OW partner hubs, such as DFW (for AA) and SCL (for LA).

Qantas' strategic relationship with these two airlines, is separate to oneworld. As part of QF's gateway strategy, it has inked two way strategic partnerships with a number of airlines, some are in oneworld, and some are not.

As I have said for some time now, I expect that aggregated, these individual strategic partnerships represent the future for Qantas. (IMO it is irrelevant whether the strategic partner is a member of oneworld, or not.) Once the gateway network strategy is complete, and the globe covered in a way to maximise return to Qantas, QF should withdraw from oneworld to force its customers onto its strategic partner services.

 

[Himeno]

I have always thought that, except for EK, the biggest competitors to QF is its own OW partners, especially given the SCs and QFF points earned on those airlines. This is especially the case for BA and CX, but also now MH and JL to lesser extents.

I disagree. Of the other 13 members now in oneworld, 7 don't fly to Australia (some not even anywhere close to Australia). LA, BA and JL only fly to one port in Aus. QR flies to 2. CX and MH fly to 6 each.
QF doesn't need to compete with QR, the link up with EK does that for them.
QF and JL compete on the NRT-SYD route, yet they codeshare elsewhere in Australia via SIN.
QF and LA compete on SYD-SCL, yet they also codeshare on each others flights.
QF competes with BA to SIN and LHR. QF has more AU-SIN flights then BA and more AU-UK flights. The issue here is cost between BA and QF. Most people won't go out of their way to get to SYD to fly with BA.

If anything, it's MH and CX that cause any issues for QF within oneworld. QF and MH could very easily have had a joint business much like the one they have with LA or AA, though QF and MH only really compete on the Kangaroo route.
The relationship between CX and QF is strained, but as for how much of that is on each side is up for debate. QF did used to codeshare on CX to FCO until the EK deal...

I see the biggest competitors to QF being non oneworld members. SQ, UA, NZ, EY and QF's own management.