Discussion on Ukraine situation 2022

[Jenya]

So Kremlin killer started real war, again. Most important question to answer here - who is responsible for this?

Fact: Russia has confidently turned from a country that once defeated fascism into a country of ruling fascism. It's hard to believe, but in 2022 one of the biggest nations on Earth could be raped by a cuckoo-mad maniac. It is very painful to accept that these people are Russians.
And it is not the Killer, and now also accused war criminal in the Kremlin who is to blame for this, - he only just uses the opportunities given to him.
Given by you - ordinary Russians.
All of YOU are to blame for what is happening today, the silent majority inside Russia, mind-poisoned by the heavy propaganda machine. It is you who allow madmen to deprive their country of its future by turning into a world pariah like North Korea is. It was your grand parents who were afraid and sit silent or even helping when Stalin killed you by the millions, and it is your distraught majority who approves the war adventure of another barbaric dictator now.
School teachers aka electoral commission members, with undisguised pleasure, faking "elections" ballots for constitutional coup, government sector servants receiving their crumbs from this criminal state, industry workers, including the oil and gas professionals, pumping money directly into the pockets of murderers for another war adventure funding.
And you who admiring mr. Killer muscles around the world, trapped into his media spiderweb Russia Today and alike. Good luck to you, US foreign policy haters. In 1939 a lot of naïve misinformed peeps around the globe were quite happy with "strong leader" Adolf and his stance to balance the power of British empire.

I am very sorry for those few of you in Russia who have not yet lost common sense in patriotic frenzy under the terrifying roller of propaganda, I know how disgusted and ashamed you are now - just like me today.
It is clear that this country has no future, unlike Ukraine btw. After all, when the this Kremlin rat dies in pain (very soon), the obedient swamp of serfs will simply doomedly find another one to rule over them.
Consider this history lessons:
1. Ordinary Germans were not war criminals during World War II.
2. But it was them who had to pay ultimate price for the crimes of the naz_ regime.
3. They continued to pay that price long after the regime itself had been destroyed.
4. The same awaits you.

For those who, for some reason, are still forced to live there or in typical russian spirit, simply hoping that "things gonna change for good by itself" - my sincere advice - don't waste your time. Your life time.
And of course, wishing resilience and courage to the Ukrainian brothers. The truth is on your side!
#StandWithUkraine
#StopPutin

 

[NM]

This thread is the place for discussion relating to the Russian military move into Ukraine that commenced late February 2022. While not directly related to travel, this is a topic of interest to the AFF community who travel widely, including to Ukraine, Russia and other countries in the region.

For discussion on how this affects travel to/from/through/over/around the region, see the thread specifically related to travel:

How will Ukraine Situation affect travel

Well the Russians have started air strikes and ground attacks on Ukraine so might throw a spammer in the works for some travel

www.australianfrequentflyer.com.au

As with all threads, the usual TOS apply, so please be respectful of other members.

 

[kpc]

Slightly off topic...given the reluctance of the West to militarily defend Ukraine (I'm not saying rightly or wrongly), I bet it is only a matter of time before China takes back Taiwan...my better 1/2 thinks it will just take ONE day! Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania etc must be feeling very nervous atm!

 

[Must...Fly!]

Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania etc must be feeling very nervous atm!

Three NATO members are nervous?

Please, perspective.

Even the Taiwan issue is a very different kettle of fish to Ukraine.

 

[kpc]

Three NATO members are nervous?

Please, perspective.

You think NATO will come rushing militarily to their aide?! Perspective....sanctions sanctions!

 

[tgh]

Even the Taiwan issue is a very different kettle of fish to Ukraine.

Care to elaborate

Seems to me that the US is , conceptually at least, committed to defending Taiwan and "saving" the Ukraine would be a bridge too far.
The EU will likely (and characteristically ) wring it's hands, check the cost of gas and decide the loss of one democracy is a liveable
price for a warm winter.. a truth pre known to the rabid Russian bear.

 

[NM]

You think NATO will come rushing militarily to their aide?! Perspective....sanctions sanctions!

I believe that under the NATO agreement, all members are somewhat obligated to defend each other against attack from non-NATO member states. Sometimes mentioned as "One In, All In" policy in the media.

 

[antycbr]

I believe that under the NATO agreement, all members are somewhat obligated to defend each other against attack from non-NATO member states. Sometimes mentioned as "One In, All In" policy in the media.

It'll be interesting to see if, when push comes to shove, some of the members of NATO do not honour their treaty obligations. I have two on my list that I would be suspicious of.

 

[Must...Fly!]

You think NATO will come rushing militarily to their aide?! Perspective....sanctions sanctions!

What would the point of NATO be if they didn't?

It's already been committed by Biden himself that every inch of NATO territory will be defended to the last by the US and the full force of their military.

Opinions are fine to have but at least they should be informed ones.

 

[kpc]

I believe that under the NATO agreement, all members are somewhat obligated to defend each other against attack from non-NATO member states. Sometimes mentioned as "One In, All In" policy in the media.

It'll be interesting to see if, when push comes to shove, some of the members of NATO do not honour their treaty obligations. I have two on my list that I would be suspicious of.

Exactly...taking on Russia militarily may be a reason to ignore the treaty!

Post automatically merged: Feb 25, 2022

Opinions are fine to have but at least they should be informed ones.

I guess your opinion is informed and mine isn't....well that is your opinion! And you believe everything Biden says?!

 

[Must...Fly!]

I guess your opinion is informed and mine isn't....well that is your opinion! And you believe everything Biden says?

If you are questioning the explicit defence commitments of the office of the US President then perhaps an underground bunker with 3-5 years worth of food, fuel and medicine might be a wise investment?

And a reminder that both France and the UK are nuclear armed states, NATO members, and have already voiced similar sentiments to Biden.

 

[antycbr]

If you are questioning the explicit defence commitments of the office of the US President then perhaps an underground bunker with 3-5 years worth of food, fuel and medicine might be a wise investment?

And a reminder that both France and the UK are nuclear armed states, NATO members, and have already voiced similar sentiments to Biden.

Like all nuclear decisions, you need to decide if you're prepared to trade Kyiv, Taillin, Taipei, or Canberra for that matter for the levelling of Washington DC, Paris or London. This is the issue with extended deterrence rather than your own sovereign capacity to protect your vital national interests (read fall of your capital).

Ukraine after the collapse of the USSR was the third largest nuclear weapons state in the world behind the US and Russia. If they hadn't traded their nuclear weapons away there is no way that the Russians would be doing what they are doing now as the fall of Kyiv would lead to the levelling of Moscow.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Like all nuclear decisions, you need to decide if you're prepared to trade Kyiv, Taillin, Taipei, or Canberra for that matter for the levelling of Washington DC, Paris or London. This is the issue with extended deterrence rather than your own sovereign capacity to protect your vital national interests (read fall of your capital).

Ukraine after the collapse of the USSR was the third largest nuclear weapons state in the world behind the US and Russia. If they hadn't traded their nuclear weapons away there is no way that the Russians would be doing what they are doing now as the fall of Kyiv would lead to the levelling of Moscow.

I never said they were going to use them.

The "red line" of Syria in 2014 did serious damage to the US position courtesy of Obama's failed foreign policy. There will be no such miscalculation this time. No one has uttered even a whisper of direct military support for the war in Ukraine because - honestly - no one cares or wants it (the territory) apart from Russia.

NATO/EU member states are a totally different beast and require a completely different lens to properly consider.

The Russians might be argumentative and aggressive but no one with a brain cell would accuse them of being stupid. They would well know a wider war in the Baltics is not something they can sustain or win.

 

[antycbr]

I never said they were going to use them.

The "red line" of Syria in 2014 did serious damage to the US position courtesy of Obama's failed foreign policy. There will be no such miscalculation this time. No one has uttered even a whisper of direct military support for the war in Ukraine because - honestly - no one cares or wants it (the territory) apart from Russia.

NATO/EU member states are a totally different beast and require a completely different lens to properly consider.

The Russians might be argumentative and aggressive but no one with a brain cell would accuse them of being stupid. They would well know a wider war in the Baltics is not something they can sustain or win.

Adding 40 million people and a lot of agriculture and industry in Ukraine increases the military potential of Russia significantly.

Whether Ukriane can be 'pacified' with a Russian friendly government (like the old Eastern bloc) is an open question however. The people will hate their government.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Adding 40 million people and a lot of agriculture and industry in Ukraine increases the military potential of Russia significantly.

Whether Ukriane can be 'pacified' with a Russian friendly government (like the old Eastern bloc) is an open question however. The people will hate their government.

Personally I think it's a fairly big assumption that anything above a small percentage of Ukrainian citizens would pick up arms and fight with Russia. As you point out, there is very little support for a Russian-sympathising government outside the Donbass (& Crimea) region.

There is an immense feeling of national pride in Ukraine at the efforts of the sacrifices of the Maidan protesters of 2014 that led to Yanukovych fleeing.

 

[I love to travel]

I feel so helpless watching this unfold. We simply don't care about low value/strategic countries? Would Australia let this happen to Singapore?

 

[antycbr]

Personally I think it's a fairly big assumption that anything above a small percentage of Ukrainian citizens would pick up arms and fight with Russia. As you point out, there is very little support for a Russian-sympathising government outside the Donbass (& Crimea) region.

There is an immense feeling of national pride in Ukraine at the efforts of the sacrifices of the Maidan protesters of 2014 that led to Yanukovych fleeing.

You don’t need much more than a small percentage to make it hard to consolidate your puppet regime. Assassinations and bombings, sabotage combined with civil disobedience are all tactics that have been used in other occupied countries.

Post automatically merged: Feb 25, 2022

I feel so helpless watching this unfold. We simply don't care about low value/strategic countries? Would Australia let this happen to Singapore?

Singapore is actually very well armed for the size of their territory and threat environment. They also have regular exercises such as landing fighter jets on converted freeways. They’re well enough armed to make sure Malaysia and Indonesia don’t get any ideas.

 

[Flashback]

Doesn't bode well for the UK, our energy prices are going up by 52% as it is on April 1 (no, not an April fool's joke!). At least the cap is re-assessed every 6 months so the further increase in price won't be felt until October. Originally it was forecast they'd increase by another 20% at that time but will likely be more by then as it is assessed on wholesale prices during the prior 6 months.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Assassinations and bombings, sabotage combined with civil disobedience are all tactics that have been used in other occupied countries.

Tactics the Ukrainian people are well used to. None of these actions are new to people who live in that part of the world, sadly.

 

[Scarlett]

You think NATO will come rushing militarily to their aide?! Perspective....sanctions sanctions!

Having worked alongside NATO members and participated in large scale NATO exercises: yes, they will.