Discussion on Ukraine situation 2022

[Brissy1]

Though one major industry is going to do very well out of this conflict.

Pentagon rushes weapons shipments to Ukraine and allies

"We believe the best way to support Ukrainian defense is by providing them the weapons and the systems they need most to defeat Russian aggression, in particular anti-armor and air defense"

www.jpost.com

Arms sales to Europe skyrocket as tensions escalate with Russia

A new report finds that imports of major arms by European states rose 19 percent between 2017-2021 when compared to 2012-2016.

www.jpost.com

Yes the arms industry.

and Australian export commodities. Ukraine is being devastated, 1000s are dying on both sides, Aus economy is benefiting so the upcoming budget will spread largesse... and people complain about the war causing the bowser price of petrol to rise (to a price that's still lower than what most oil importing countries were paying even pre-war).
Gee.

 

[drron]

and Australian export commodities. Ukraine is being devastated, 1000s are dying on both sides, Aus economy is benefiting so the upcoming budget will spread largesse... and people complain about the war causing the bowser price of petrol to rise (to a price that's still lower than what most oil importing countries were paying even pre-war).
Gee.

The world oil price has been steadily rising for over a year. The major blame isn't Putin and Ukraine. Here is the chart.


There was a huge drop for 1 day when the market was spooked by covid. It then leveled out as oil use was falling as no one traveling. The absolute low on that plateau was November 4th 2020. A day of a significant event which those in the know meant oil production in the World's largest oil producer at that time was going to fall in 2021 which it did hence the steady rise in price.

 

[dairyfloss]

The world oil price has been steadily rising for over a year. The major blame isn't Putin and Ukraine. Here is the chart.
View attachment 273627

There was a huge drop for 1 day when the market was spooked by covid. It then leveled out as oil use was falling as no one traveling. The absolute low on that plateau was November 4th 2020. A day of a significant event which those in the know meant oil production in the World's largest oil producer at that time was going to fall in 2021 which it did hence the steady rise in price.

Ahhhh yes, the day that New Jersey & Arizona voted to legalise recreational marijuan_. I think there was also some U.S. presidential political thing, but surely that was no biggie?

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Tomorrow will be the one month mark.

In today's BBC's blog, there is a map of Russia's military progress these last seven days

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60830013

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Interesting read under

Inside a rare US meeting with a Russian general in Moscow​

In CNN blog

Live updates: Russia invades Ukraine, Mariupol besieged

World leaders are in Brussels Thursday to attend emergency summits as they seek to align their responses to Russia's brutal invasion of Ukraine. Follow here for live news updates.

edition.cnn.com

 

[Must...Fly!]

Interesting read under

Inside a rare US meeting with a Russian general in Moscow​

In CNN blog

Live updates: Russia invades Ukraine, Mariupol besieged

World leaders are in Brussels Thursday to attend emergency summits as they seek to align their responses to Russia's brutal invasion of Ukraine. Follow here for live news updates.

edition.cnn.com

Direct link

Exclusive: Inside a rare US meeting with a Russian general in Moscow

It's interesting but would take it with a bucket load of salt because, well, CNN

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

The Budapest memorandum gets a mention - Ukraine security for giving up nuclear weapons

from BBC blog.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60890199

Ukraine not willing to give up any territory - Zelensky adviser​

A senior adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has told BBC Radio 4's World at One programme that Ukraine is not "willing to give up any territory".

Speaking on the eve of further talks between Russia and Ukraine, Alexander Rodnyansky said "now the pressure is on Russia".

"Clearly, they cannot sustain this war for years and their morale is so low they can't even keep up their supplies and logistics," he said.

Mr Rodnyansky, who is also an assistant professor of economics at Cambridge University, said Ukraine would not sacrifice its "territorial integrity".

"If you ask the people who live in these areas, they wouldn't want to live in Russia. How can we leave them? Let alone the whole idea of slicing up our country." from Alexander Rodnyansky Senior adviser to Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky

He suggested a "more concrete" version of the "Budapest memorandum" - which gave Ukraine security assurances - would be necessary to achieve peace.

"The Budapest memorandum was supposed to guarantee our security in return for giving up nuclear weapons in the 90s.

"It would have to be something along those lines, where steps would be specified, which countries exactly would act in what way if your security is threatened."

But he warned that the potential involvement of Nato countries in such a pact would be a "delicate issue".

"That's why the negotiations aren't easy, because you wouldn't want to trigger Article 5, essentially, pulling all of Nato into a conflict with Russia.

"That's [what] the Nato countries don't want to happen and that's why negotiations are still ongoing."

 

[drron]

The sanctions are having an effect on UK pension funds.

There are around two trillion pounds ($2.64 trillion) of assets in defined benefit, or final salary pension funds, which provide a guaranteed income in retirement for millions of workers including refuse collectors, supermarket staff and bank tellers.

Pensions trade bodies and major pension funds contacted by Reuters said Russia investments likely accounted for up to 0.5% of pension holdings in Britain, or 10 billion pounds.

Many pension funds are in deficit after years of ultra-low interest rates curbed gains in their investments. But their funding levels improved during the COVID-19 pandemic, as economic stimulus in response to the virus lifted asset prices.

Analysis: Locked Russian assets add to war woes for British pension funds

British pension fund managers are writing off billions of pounds of frozen Russian assets held for their members as they run out of options to sell them safely, adding to the risks to their funding positions from Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

www.reuters.com

 

[RAM]

The sanctions are having an effect on UK pension funds.

Analysis: Locked Russian assets add to war woes for British pension funds

British pension fund managers are writing off billions of pounds of frozen Russian assets held for their members as they run out of options to sell them safely, adding to the risks to their funding positions from Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

www.reuters.com

Raises the question of negligence by the fund managers in charge of the assets. Not taking some form of action as risk level rose (troop numbers increasing on the Ukranian border etc) = lack of duty of care.

Go back some decades and when Chernobyl exploded - we (our Head of European equities - all based in Sydney) checked the prevailing weather patterns to see exactly what could be at risk down wind and sold down (within 90 minutes of the news going on the wires - his wife was not happy) any holdings that could be impacted on the basis of risk management.

Knowing that many fund managers require the safety of a committee to make decisions - acting early virtually always pays off if you have a good understanding of your portfolio.

Who knew that the bulk of European sugar beet production was downwind from Chernobyl?
____________________________________________

Fast forward to present day, and since then there have been dozens of examples where basic risk management saved massive amounts in funds management - for some fund managers, sadly not most.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Article about past, and future possible options for, security guarantees

The US and its allies are weighing security guarantees for Ukraine, but they're unlikely to give Kyiv what it wants

The US and its allies have been weighing how the West could provide Ukraine with alternative security guarantees should it forgo its NATO membership bid as a concession to Russia to end the war, multiple sources familiar with the matter tell CNN.

edition.cnn.com

 

[drron]

The sanctions on "oligarchs"is catching many who have fled Russia as they have ties to the Opposition to Putin. Xenophobia raises it's ugly head again.

Insight: Sanctioned or not, Russians abroad find their money is 'toxic'

Yevgeny Chichvarkin, a telecoms tycoon who fled Russia in 2008 and became a high-profile London restaurateur, has long been a vocal supporter of Ukraine.

www.reuters.com

 

[RAM]

Article about past, and future possible options for, security guarantees

The US and its allies are weighing security guarantees for Ukraine, but they're unlikely to give Kyiv what it wants

The US and its allies have been weighing how the West could provide Ukraine with alternative security guarantees should it forgo its NATO membership bid as a concession to Russia to end the war, multiple sources familiar with the matter tell CNN.

edition.cnn.com

A financial market analogy is the 'good til close' syndrome.

An order is placed (outside of current market prices) but when the market moves towards those levels, the person cancels the order. The most common comment is 'Things have changed'.

Western security guarantees (1994 Pact for Ukraine giving up nuclear weapons) appear to exhibit the same tendencies. I suppose it is not far off the NIMBY effect - no care until its your own country being invaded/attacked. The EU & NATO modern history is bluff & bluster - Moldova in the early 1990s, Georgia in early 2000s, and then Ukraine in 2014 with both the entire Crimea penninsula & much of the Donbas region. A bite every ten years or so.

Going back further - both the UN & NATO refused to intervene after the Serbian massacre when the French UN troops abandoned the security guaranteed 'safe haven' leading to over 8,000 thousand Bosnian muslim men & boys being murdered in July 1995. Instead the French troops abandoned their positions and drove away. No call made for air assistance, nothing.

Really does show the impact one person can have. If Zelensky was not such a strong figurehead then I suspect we would not have this thread.

Every Western talking head from the top of NATO, the Pentagon, White House, Macron, retired Generals etc etc had writen off the Ukrainians before the first shot was fired. Unanimously we were told that would not stand a chance of lasting even three days.

 

[RAM]

The sanctions on "oligarchs"is catching many who have fled Russia as they have ties to the Opposition to Putin. Xenophobia raises it's ugly head again.

Insight: Sanctioned or not, Russians abroad find their money is 'toxic'

Yevgeny Chichvarkin, a telecoms tycoon who fled Russia in 2008 and became a high-profile London restaurateur, has long been a vocal supporter of Ukraine.

www.reuters.com

Up to a point.

Is there any oligarch who did not get effectively given hundreds of millions or billions in assets at the expense of the Russian people? Have a look at the soon to be ex-Chelsea soccer club owner.

Falling out of favour with the latest Communist regime in power used to be a continual cycle before Putin & Xi Jinping got other ideas - whether Russia, China or North Korea.

It is behind the story of Singapore's rise - a quiet 'arrangement' created in the early 1960s whereby the Singaporean 'ruler' guaranteed that no funds placed in Singaporean banks by CCP officials or in the names of their relatives/associates would ever be repatriated to the Chinese Govt. All he asked in return was that they received no interest on their money.

A shrewd operator, he realised that with the almost clockwork purges where entire bloodlines disappeared in China - that much of the money would never be claimed. Thus began the Singaporean economic miracle based on free money. As the flows increased massively it forced Singapore to link their currency to the GBP at first and then to the USD until the mid 1980s.

One of the world's best kept secrets. Even today. Mention it and China (& Singapore) threaten your employer (and the world's media barons not to carry it).

The amount of 'mainland money' that moved from HK to Singapore since 1997 is in the low tens of USD billions. Massive acceleration from 2011. The CCP 'oligarchs' don't flaunt their wealth quite as obviously - surprising number of senior PLA officers who own major industrial companies, and no not all of them have retired from active duty. Great way (in one case) to guarantee the sale of all the T-shirts you produce to the army & navy.

The Russian near-equivalent is Cyprus - an estimated EUR 100 bn in 2020 alone.

"The Mediterranean island has long served as a banking home for the gray fortunes of Russian investors, from arms dealers to gambling firms and coughographic websites. In the early 1990s, post-Soviet figures like Slobodan Milošević traveled to the island with cash-filled suitcases."

What a wonderful world!

 

[NM]

Looks like the USA are keeping a close eye on things around Ukraine today. Global Hark having a good look around.


Yesterday there were at least 4 different tankers orbiting in the region, including RAF, USA, Belgium, and Italy air forces, and at least one E-3 Sentry.

 

[tgh]

keeping a close eye on things

Indeed they might.. the bear is now cornered with no honourable escape available and might do anything.

 

[drron]

And satellites are going to dismantle some Russian misinformation. this story for instance looks bad for russia.

In Ukrainian street, a corpse with hands bound and a bullet wound to the head

A man lay sprawled by the roadside in the Ukrainian city of Bucha on Sunday, his hands tied behind his back and a bullet wound to his head, one of hundreds of local residents that officials say have been found dead in the wake of five weeks of Russian occupation.

www.reuters.com

The Russians denied they were responsible and even asked the UN to convene an Inquiry into Ukraian misinformation.

Russia's defence ministry said in a statement issued on Sunday that all photographs and videos published by the Ukrainian authorities alleging 'crimes' by Russian troops in Bucha were a "provocation," and no resident of Bucha suffered violence at the hands of Russian troops.

But unfortunately an eye in the sky proved them responsible.

Maxar Technologies provided nine images taken of Bucha on March 18, 19 and 31 to Reuters. At least four of the images appear to show bodies on one of the town's roads, Yablonska Street. The city was occupied by Russian forces until about March 30.
"You see pictures on the ground that show bodies relative to cars and buildings, and in satellite images, you can see the lumps on the ground in the same position next to the same cars and buildings.

"What the satellite images show is that the bodies were present while the Russians controlled the area," said Lewis, who is director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies.

Satellite images show civilian deaths in Ukraine town while it was in Russian hands

Satellite images taken weeks ago of the town of Bucha in Ukraine show bodies of civilians on a street, a private U.S. company said, undercutting the Russian government's claims that Ukrainian forces caused the deaths or that the scene was staged.

www.reuters.com

 

[NM]

Looks like the USA are keeping a close eye on things around Ukraine today. Global Hark having a good look around.


Yesterday there were at least 4 different tankers orbiting in the region, including RAF, USA, Belgium, and Italy air forces, and at least one E-3 Sentry.

And 3.5 hours later, the Global Hawk is still orbiting above the Black Sea. And a USAF KC135R Stratotanker commencing orbits over southern Poland. And the usual US Army Beech RC-12X Guardrail (YANK01) based in Lithuania has commenced its usual patrol of the Belarus border.

 

[drron]

A lot of collateral damage. Several countries facing severe economic hardship.

Analysis: Russia-Ukraine fallout starts felling fragile 'frontier' economies

The fallout of the Russia and Ukraine war has just helped tip two of world's poorest countries into full-blown crises, and the list of those at risk - and the queue at the International Monetary Fund's door - will only get longer from here.

www.reuters.com

JP Morgan announces possible $1 billion write down of Russian assets.

JPMorgan's Dimon warns of possible $1 billion Russia loss

JPMorgan could lose about $1 billion on its Russia exposure, Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said on Monday, detailing the extent of the bank's potential losses from the conflict in Ukraine for the first time.

www.reuters.com

US freezes Russian deposits in US banks so they can't repay loans.

U.S. stops Russian bond payments, raising risk of default

The United States stopped the Russian government on Monday from paying holders of its sovereign debt more than $600 million from reserves held at U.S. banks, in a move meant to ratchet up pressure on Moscow and eat into its holdings of dollars.

www.reuters.com

 

[dajop]

A lot of collateral damage. Several countries facing severe economic hardship.

Analysis: Russia-Ukraine fallout starts felling fragile 'frontier' economies

The fallout of the Russia and Ukraine war has just helped tip two of world's poorest countries into full-blown crises, and the list of those at risk - and the queue at the International Monetary Fund's door - will only get longer from here.

www.reuters.com

This one mentions Sri Lanka fairly prominently. Sri Lanka did kick some own goals well before Russia invaded Ukraine, in the middle of the pandemic (which killed off half of their foreign exchange receipts when tourism stopped) they overnight stopped importation of synthetic fertilisers and pesticides (now partially reversed), which caused huge declines in agricultural production - particularly noticeable in rice and tea (they had to start importing the former for the first time in a while and exports of the latter - another vital source of FX - declined significantly). Now compounded by Russia/Ukraine situation.

No doubt the other countries mentioned, highly dependant on wheat to feed their populations (in addition to their energy needs) are suffering significantly (or about to).

 

[drron]

This one mentions Sri Lanka fairly prominently. Sri Lanka did kick some own goals well before Russia invaded Ukraine, in the middle of the pandemic (which killed off half of their foreign exchange receipts when tourism stopped) they overnight stopped importation of synthetic fertilisers and pesticides (now partially reversed), which caused huge declines in agricultural production - particularly noticeable in rice and tea (they had to start importing the former for the first time in a while and exports of the latter - another vital source of FX - declined significantly). Now compounded by Russia/Ukraine situation.

No doubt the other countries mentioned, highly dependant on wheat to feed their populations (in addition to their energy needs) are suffering significantly (or about to).

I agree. But virtually everything that is being blamed upon Putin basically was happening before February- Price of oil,inflation, supply chain problems etc but the war has given them all a kick along.