Discussion on Ukraine situation 2022

[SCM]

Anyway, back on topic: things are not going well for Russia in any sphere except for domestic propaganda and control of their local population. I still do not see what the Kremlin is seeking to achieve or how they structure a face saving end point. They will be facing war crimes investigations for many years and paying reparations for longer. And to achieve what? Full control of the Donbas? That’s like sacrificing your queen to take a pawn…

If you look at the map of countries enacting for example no-fly zones or sanctions, one thing will become very clear, it's the anglosphere/western countries. Russia does not care at all what they think.

They will not care what kangaroo courts set up by NATO say, and nobody will be able to enforce any judgements. War crimes are in themselves nothing but propaganda, and in fact everything you have heard about this war is propaganda fed to the western media by CIA. The same can be said about the Russian people (in the opposite way), but you seem to have only one eye open about this.

Ultimately it's two political entities who have an entirely different world view (for political reasons), and they will never "surrender" their viewpoint. Both sides are making up increasingly fallacious stories and propaganda about the other side - to the point at which it is simply impossible to roll back from.

What that means is that there will be no "return to normality" of the last 30 years. We are in for a more divided world than we've had in recent memory, and it's not going away anytime soon.

 

[antycbr]

If you look at the map of countries enacting for example no-fly zones or sanctions, one thing will become very clear, it's the anglosphere/western countries. Russia does not care at all what they think.

They will not care what kangaroo courts set up by NATO say, and nobody will be able to enforce any judgements. War crimes are in themselves nothing but propaganda, and in fact everything you have heard about this war is propaganda fed to the western media by CIA. The same can be said about the Russian people (in the opposite way), but you seem to have only one eye open about this.

Ultimately it's two political entities who have an entirely different world view (for political reasons), and they will never "surrender" their viewpoint. Both sides are making up increasingly fallacious stories and propaganda about the other side - to the point at which it is simply impossible to roll back from.

What that means is that there will be no "return to normality" of the last 30 years. We are in for a more divided world than we've had in recent memory, and it's not going away anytime soon.

One thing that’s true is that there is an international border. Russian troops are on the wrong side of that border.

Russia agreed to the integrity of Ukraine and Ukraine agreed to surrender the worlds third largest nuclear weapons inventory. No country with nuclear weapons gets invaded. Expect an increase in proliferation. If I was Taiwan I’d be heading in that direction.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

One thing that’s true is that there is an international border. Russian troops are on the wrong side of that border.

Russia agreed to the integrity of Ukraine and Ukraine agreed to surrender the worlds third largest nuclear weapons inventory. No country with nuclear weapons gets invaded. Expect an increase in proliferation. If I was Taiwan I’d be heading in that direction.

As opposed to a border dispute between China, India and Pakistan?!?!

 

[antycbr]

As opposed to a border dispute between China, India and Pakistan?!?!

Things are arguably more stable between the three countries. Remember there used to be an East Pakistan once.

 

[drron]

As opposed to a border dispute between China, India and Pakistan?!?!

And they each recognise their own border which is different from the others.

Until 2014 Russia and Ukraine had a mutually recognised border. Though when Russia got on the wrong side of it then we just shrugged our shoulders.

 

[Scarlett]

You answered your own question.


Many in Russia don't care for or about what the west may or may not do in response. It's unlikely to be relayed to them in the news anyway - and even if so it'll be how the EU/US behemoths are suffocating the Russian people for their own benefits.

You can't look through a western prism when thinking about what happens inside Russia. Everything you know, your value set, your belief in institutions, should go completely out the window.

30 years ago I may have agreed with you, but now I don’t believe that. There will be a class of Russians like you have described, but there is also a large middle and wealthy class with a global outlook and understanding.
Many people in Russia will be asking why they can no longer fly overseas, why there are shortages of certain goods and why someone they know lost a child to war.

I don’t believe propaganda can cover an invasion of a close neighbour for a long period.

History will let us know eventually… I truely hope it doesn’t reflect well on the aggressors.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

An example of someone believing their truth

Older residents of the east reluctant to hit the road

While young Ukrainians have moved to safety, many older residents say they have no choice but to stay.

www.bbc.com

 

[Brissy1]

in fact everything you have heard about this war is propaganda fed to the western media by CIA.

So there!

 

[SCM]

One thing that’s true is that there is an international border. Russian troops are on the wrong side of that border.

Russia agreed to the integrity of Ukraine and Ukraine agreed to surrender the worlds third largest nuclear weapons inventory. No country with nuclear weapons gets invaded. Expect an increase in proliferation. If I was Taiwan I’d be heading in that direction.

Australians troops have been on the wrong side of many borders, including but not limited to Afganistan and Iraq. I don't see you having complained about that?

Borders don't mean anything if you can't enforce them.

30 years ago I may have agreed with you, but now I don’t believe that. There will be a class of Russians like you have described, but there is also a large middle and wealthy class with a global outlook and understanding.
Many people in Russia will be asking why they can no longer fly overseas, why there are shortages of certain goods and why someone they know lost a child to war.

I don’t believe propaganda can cover an invasion of a close neighbour for a long period.

History will let us know eventually… I truely hope it doesn’t reflect well on the aggressors.

The issue is that every "sanction" that the west has perpetrated plays directly into Putin's hands, and cements the fact that the west is against the Russian people. The west could not have done things more perfectly in tune to what Putin wanted, it perfectly allows him to portray the narrative exactly how he wants it to sound.

Every single sanction, restrictions, measure to isolate Russia increases support for Putin and gives him legitimacy. The west has chosen the absolute worst possible path to deal with him - which will ensure he has very strong and broad support.

The most salient example of this is big tech. So called "free democracies" like Australia and EU have banned Russian media outlets (not so freedom loving is it?), which in turns gives Putin a justification to ban all western tech sites in Russia - which ensures that Russians do not have access to both sides of the story (and of course, the same for people in the west).

The west has created this problem and it is the one making it worse. The only way to end it is freedom and openness. A true freedom supporter does not fear a free contest of ideas.

 

[jb747]

The west has created this problem and it is the one making it worse. The only way to end it is freedom and openness. A true freedom supporter does not fear a free contest of ideas.

A contest of ideas does not involve invading a neighbour. Perhaps shelling their cities is just a conversational counterpoint.

As you think that sanctions should not have happened, what, exactly do you propose? I presume you're suggesting the west do nothing, who cares about Ukraine anyway.

 

[antycbr]

Australians troops have been on the wrong side of many borders, including but not limited to Afganistan and Iraq. I don't see you having complained about that?

Borders don't mean anything if you can't enforce them.



The issue is that every "sanction" that the west has perpetrated plays directly into Putin's hands, and cements the fact that the west is against the Russian people. The west could not have done things more perfectly in tune to what Putin wanted, it perfectly allows him to portray the narrative exactly how he wants it to sound.

Every single sanction, restrictions, measure to isolate Russia increases support for Putin and gives him legitimacy. The west has chosen the absolute worst possible path to deal with him - which will ensure he has very strong and broad support.

The most salient example of this is big tech. So called "free democracies" like Australia and EU have banned Russian media outlets (not so freedom loving is it?), which in turns gives Putin a justification to ban all western tech sites in Russia - which ensures that Russians do not have access to both sides of the story (and of course, the same for people in the west).

The west has created this problem and it is the one making it worse. The only way to end it is freedom and openness. A true freedom supporter does not fear a free contest of ideas.

Please refrain from personal attacks.

 

[SCM]

A contest of ideas does not involve invading a neighbour. Perhaps shelling their cities is just a conversational counterpoint.

As you think that sanctions should not have happened, what, exactly do you propose? I presume you're suggesting the west do nothing, who cares about Ukraine anyway.

The contest of ideas occurs online and in the media, it has nothing to do with the physical conflict.

My suggestion is to ensure the Russian people have ample access to all media and that there is allowed to be debate and ideas from all sides in every media outlet - both legacy and new tech.

There is nothing inherently popular about this war in Russia, nobody wants to go to war, let alone with Ukraine. The only way the support can happen is because the west has cut off Russia in terms of free online access and exchange of ideas. This is a double edge sword that has not really benefitted the west (unless somehow this current outcome was their intention).

 

[tgh]

nobody wants to go to war, let alone with Ukraine

Hm.. I guess all opinions should be welcome here but I choose not to engage in a conversation at this level of perception.......

 

[Must...Fly!]

There will be a class of Russians like you have described, but there is also a large middle and wealthy class with a global outlook and understanding.

There is a middle and wealthy class that will feel some effect from sanctions but they are not large, proportionally speaking, to Russia. The effects the wealthy feel are muted by the simple fact that most of them obtained said wealth by being loyal to Putin and the national apparatus. The saying "the lord giveth and lord taketh away" comes to mind.

And yes while they do have a global outlook and understanding, these people cannot speak up in the way you or I could in Australia because - guess what - if they do, they end up in prison. The vast majority of the middle class you talk about sometimes visit the west, but can live without it. Most people in western Russia (think primarily Moscow and St Petersburg) see the western move of Russia evidenced by cups of Starbucks and boxes containing Big Macs. Now, those are gone and they will be disappointed by that but it is not something that is going to get people revolting against the Kremlin and risking everything.

Many people in Russia will be asking why they can no longer fly overseas, why there are shortages of certain goods and why someone they know lost a child to war.

The vast majority of men fighting in the Donbass and Ukraine come from areas of Russia where "western thought" has not penetrated. Nor has Starbucks or McDonald's. The likes of Kadyrov being present in Ukraine since almost the start of the conflict is no coincidence. The Kremlin requires the manpower and support of the Chechen regime, and of course they are happy to give it as the former continues to invest in the region and reinforces the "legitimacy" of Kadyrov's grip on power.

I don’t believe propaganda can cover an invasion of a close neighbour for a long period.

And yet 8 years later, Crimea is still in Russian hands (regardless of if you believe this was ultimately fair or not - it was an annexation in international law). And Ukraine has been exchanging fire with Russia in Donbass the entire time.

I fear you severely underestimate the ability of the Kremlin to wage its own information wars, and overestimate the ability of foreign governments to care in the long term about what happens to Ukraine. Unfortunately for everyone, Putin's biggest mistake was to try and force regime change.

If he had simply invaded the Donbass region alone, I feel we may well have had a ceasefire by now and probably productive (depending on your point of view) discussions about the real future of the disputed territories (including Crimea). Instead we have a sad state of affairs where death and suffering is omnipresent, and the nation of Ukraine is a battlefield with global arms pouring in compounding the pain.

 

[drron]

@SCM you should really study the Tactics of Russian troops in the events of 2014. You might realise then why the Ukrainians are fighting for their lives and why the Ukrainian troops in Mariupol won't surrender. For example the battle of Ilovaisk. Some of the Ukrainian troops that tried to retake Ilovaisk were surrounded by hostile forces including Russian forces inside Ukraine. they negotiated a ceasefire which received the approval of Putin. This is what happened,

After days of being under siege in Ilovaisk, commanders of government forces in the city attempted to negotiate an agreement that would allow them to withdraw from the city.[7][9] Russian president Vladimir Putin said in the early morning on 29 August that a "humanitarian corridor for besieged Ukrainian soldiers" should be established, allowing the trapped soldiers to leave Ilovaisk.[18] Yuri Beryoza, a commander in the Dnipro Battalion, managed to quickly reach an agreement with Russian commanders in Ilovaisk to establish such a corridor.[7] DPR prime minister Alexander Zakharchenko confirmed that an agreement had been made, and also said that Ukrainian forces were required to leave their armoured vehicles and ammunition behind as a condition of the agreement.[27] At 06:00, government forces began to move out of Ilovaisk in a column of sixty vehicles.[7] The first lorry in the column, carrying dead and wounded soldiers, was flying a white flag. The column advanced 10 kilometres (6 1⁄4 mi) along the corridor, about an hour's drive, but was then surrounded by Russian and insurgent troops.[7][18] These troops opened fire on the column with mortars and heavy machine guns. Vehicles exploded, and the column was obliterated.[7] Soldiers attempted to flee, but many were captured by Russian and insurgent forces. One fleeing Ukrainian soldier described the situation as "a real meat grinder".[18] At least 100 soldiers were killed in the ambush, with many more injured or taken prisoner. The Ukrainian government described the events as a "massacre".[8][28] One insurgent commander said he had taken 173 Ukrainian soldiers prisoner near Ilovaisk, in the aftermath of the ambush. He said that he would use them as laborers to rebuild destroyed Donbass cities.[

Battle of Ilovaisk

The Battle of Ilovaisk started on 7 August 2014, when the Armed Forces of Ukraine and pro-Ukrainian paramilitaries began a series of attempts to capture the city of Ilovaisk from pro-Russian insurgents affiliated with the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR).[4][12] Whilst government forces were able...

military-history.fandom.com

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Its going to be a horrendous time when one side appears to follow the rules of war and the other apparently doesn't without any apparent consequences.

 

[Cossie]

I have friends in Estonia and I discussed Russia’s illegal takeover in 2014 of Crimea with them.
We talked about this in late 2015 as I was curious to know how they felt about this.
Their response was that as about 20% of those living in Estonia are ethnically Russian, who don’t identify as being Estonian, speak Russian and they don’t want to learn Estonian and regard themselves as Russian, they would be very happy to go back to how things were pre 1989.
My friends comments were that they were glad that Estonia was now a member of NATO.
If they weren’t a member, they were sure that mother Russia would use the Sudetenland excuse for invading Estonia to safeguard the security of their ”brothers”……

Ditto Latvia and Lithuania, I’m guessing.

Sound familiar?

 

[Must...Fly!]

Its going to be a horrendous time when one side appears to follow the rules of war and the other apparently doesn't without any apparent consequences.

Key word there being appears.

Not making any allegations, but nothing is as it seems in war.

 

[RAM]

There is a middle and wealthy class that will feel some effect from sanctions but they are not large, proportionally speaking, to Russia. The effects the wealthy feel are muted by the simple fact that most of them obtained said wealth by being loyal to Putin and the national apparatus. The saying "the lord giveth and lord taketh away" comes to mind.

And yes while they do have a global outlook and understanding, these people cannot speak up in the way you or I could in Australia because - guess what - if they do, they end up in prison. The vast majority of the middle class you talk about sometimes visit the west, but can live without it. Most people in western Russia (think primarily Moscow and St Petersburg) see the western move of Russia evidenced by cups of Starbucks and boxes containing Big Macs. Now, those are gone and they will be disappointed by that but it is not something that is going to get people revolting against the Kremlin and risking everything.


The vast majority of men fighting in the Donbass and Ukraine come from areas of Russia where "western thought" has not penetrated. Nor has Starbucks or McDonald's. The likes of Kadyrov being present in Ukraine since almost the start of the conflict is no coincidence. The Kremlin requires the manpower and support of the Chechen regime, and of course they are happy to give it as the former continues to invest in the region and reinforces the "legitimacy" of Kadyrov's grip on power.


And yet 8 years later, Crimea is still in Russian hands (regardless of if you believe this was ultimately fair or not - it was an annexation in international law). And Ukraine has been exchanging fire with Russia in Donbass the entire time.

I fear you severely underestimate the ability of the Kremlin to wage its own information wars, and overestimate the ability of foreign governments to care in the long term about what happens to Ukraine. Unfortunately for everyone, Putin's biggest mistake was to try and force regime change.

If he had simply invaded the Donbass region alone, I feel we may well have had a ceasefire by now and probably productive (depending on your point of view) discussions about the real future of the disputed territories (including Crimea). Instead we have a sad state of affairs where death and suffering is omnipresent, and the nation of Ukraine is a battlefield with global arms pouring in compounding the pain.

In response to the Russian invasion/annexation of the Crimea & its oil & gas resources....

Western Europe increased its purchases of Russian oil & gas.

Take that Putin!

And he merrily did take the extra few hundred million Euros per day...

Just like the price spikes have seen Russia' earning nearly one billion Euros per day from the EU since just before Feb 24th. More than paying for the cost of the invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile Western (& China's) oil/gas companies are not complaining about the quadrupling or more of their profits since then.

Guess who's the 2nd biggest customer for Russian gas (as of late 2019)? No not China but Turkey.

The two countries have clearly been in disagreement for a couple of years, but they have managed to quickly resolve their differences for economic purposes related to Russian-Turkish energy interdependence. Since Turkey is currently importing approximately 50 percent of its gas needs from Russia, Ankara is the second most valuable market for Russian gas after Germany.

Wheels within wheels within wheels.

 

[drron]

Even Ukraine is profiting from the higher price of Russian gas in Europe.

Ukraine Demands Everyone Else Boycott Russia While Making Billions From Russian Gas | Frontpage Mag

“If Europe continues importing gas from Russia, why shouldn’t Ukraine benefit from it?”

www.frontpagemag.com

And Europe better hope it is not a cold winter as gas stocks are lower than recent years.

European gas storage improves but remains fragile | European Gas Hub

www.europeangashub.com