Discussion on Ukraine situation 2022

[HappyFlyerFamily]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1522353305296453635

 

[jb747]

Unconfirmed reports of another ship being hit by an anti shipping missile. If true, it doesn't say much for their AAW defence.

 

[drron]

Said to be the Admiral Makarov the replacement Flagship after the Moskva was sunk.

https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2022/05/06/second-russian-warship-burns-after-hit-by-missile-claims/

 

[ricco]

Yes, they are unconfirmed at present. I'm curious though. The grainy footage on the web showing the ship on fire does not quite match
the images of the particular frigate that has been attacked. Maybe it's Russian but not the one they think it is. Especially, the large rotating radar- still spinning. They just don't seem to match up exactly but the footage is very grainy so it's hard to tell but I'm thinking this is a genuine hit. The Ukranians have a lot to lose by faking videos and it fits very well with seemingly wacky Russian strategy i.e. let's send another flagship to Snake Island and see what happens. Well, kaboom!
Flightradar24 showed several NATO electronic warfare planes near the ship's location at the time of the attack. Last time that happened the Moskva engaged in a "special military operation" underwater.
I'm looking forward to having a look at the May 9 parade in Moscow to see just what a Russian tank looks like with its turret attached.

 

[ricco]

My bet is that next on the Ukranian hitlist will be the Crimean Bridge linking Crimea to the Russian mainland. It's a big target - 18 km long and well within the range of the US HIMARS missile system that has now been supplied to the Ukranians. A special gift from the Ukraine on May 9.

 

[antycbr]

My bet is that next on the Ukranian hitlist will be the Crimean Bridge linking Crimea to the Russian mainland. It's a big target - 18 km long and well within the range of the US HIMARS missile system that has now been supplied to the Ukranians. A special gift from the Ukraine on May 9.

That bridge was a hostile act from the start, it was deliberately designed to make shipping access to the Ukrainian side of the Sea of Azov difficult.

 

[drron]

Video on twitter does show a naval vessel on fire.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1522577939669438466

 

[tgh]

The profiles don't seem to match..
If it was genuine one would expect a lot more noise by now...

 

[drron]

Yes the fact that nearly 24 hours have gone past without more info is suspicious that this is not a true story.
However the reports do suggest Russian aircraft deployed to the area where the ship was allegedly hit.
I suspect the US knows what happened.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

After the purported time of the hit, there were a lot of (US) drones in the air - guessing for surveillance or trying to find the damaged (Russian) ship. Apparently a few rescue type ships in the area. No reports have specifically mentioned evacuation rafts/seaman in the Black Sea.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

A 'sighting' of the Admiral Makarov

A Journalist Just Spotted Russia’s ‘Admiral Makarov’ Frigate, Intact And At Sea

H.I. Sutton, an independent journalist focusing on naval warfare, has spotted more than a dozen of the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s remaining warships, intact and underway. They include 'Admiral Makarov.'

www.forbes.com

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

See an unconfirmed report that Turkey offered to evacuate all Ukrainian military (and male civilians I guess) from Azovstal and to keep them prisoners until the end of the war /special military operation - Offer rejected by Russia.

Seems unlikely Russia will stop when it (i) controls the entire Donbas and/or (ii) controls a land bridge to Crimea/Transnistria.

I wonder if the end game will be US and NATO continuing to give weapons to Ukraine until Ukraine wins back territory from before the pre-24 February situation (eg some/all of Crimea and/or some/all east of the line of contact in Donbas).

 

[drron]

Or something happens to Putin.

 

[Cossie]

Wow if true, massive implications for those back in Chechnya.

It's from a Ukrainian government website, in Ukrainian, but allegedly a list of those from Chechnya fighting for Russia, a list of over 2400 names, with addresses and phone numbers.

У військовому вторгненні в Україну брало участь близько 2,5 тисяч бойовиків з чеченської республіки

gur.gov.ua

Hope something comes of this as well: Bellingcat: The online investigators tracking alleged Russian war crimes in Ukraine

​

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Wow if true, massive implications for those back in Chechnya.

It's from a Ukrainian government website, in Ukrainian, but allegedly a list of those from Chechnya fighting for Russia, a list of over 2400 names, with addresses and phone numbers.

У військовому вторгненні в Україну брало участь близько 2,5 тисяч бойовиків з чеченської республіки

gur.gov.ua

Hope something comes of this as well: Bellingcat: The online investigators tracking alleged Russian war crimes in Ukraine

​

I’ve seen reports of Chechens fighting for both sides. Wikipedia seems to confirm it.

Chechen involvement in the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[Cossie]

Yes, they are fighting on both sides, seems to go back to the Chechens conflicts

I saw the above on a reddit post, people were stating that there would be reprisals back in Chechnya, probably on both sides, they say that Vietnam was the first televised war, this current situation has to be the first social media war.

Some of the footage is horrifying and responses from both sides seems to me that they will never forgive each other.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Azovstal evacuation operation under way - Ukraine​

Ukraine's defence ministry has confirmed that an operation to evacuate fighters from the besieged Azovstal steelworks is under way.

Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Malyar said that 53 heavily injured fighters were taken to the town of Novoazovsk, held by Russian-backed rebels. Another 211 were evacuated using a humanitarian corridor to another rebel-held location, Olenivka,

As we reported earlier, Reuters news agency says about a dozen buses carrying Ukrainian fighters who were holed up beneath the besieged plant have been seen leaving the site.

Mariupol fighters to be exchanged for captive Russians - Ukraine​

Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Malyar, who says 264 wounded Ukrainian fighters have been rescued from the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol, says the freed troops were exchanged for captured Russian soldiers.

In a tweet, the official described the Russians as "captured racists".



- BBC blog https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61461805

 

[Cossie]

Mikhail Khodarenok, a retired Russian colonel speaking on state tv with some home truths, I hope he has good bodyguards. Host Olga Skabeeva does not look happy.

a slightly longer version here, the ending is interesting.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1526329765065539592

A translated article from early Feb, again he seems to know what he is talking about.

Прогнозы кровожадных политологов / Реалии / Независимая газета

О восторженных ястребах и торопливых кукушках

nvo-ng-ru.translate.goog

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Now some unconfirmed rumours (only from Russian side at this stage, and non-official as well) saying Azovstal defenders might surrender in the next day or so.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

With Russians apparently still bombing Azovstal, perhaps this seems the likely situation at Azovstal:

Mariupol: Will those still trapped fight or surrender?​

There are conflicting reports about the number of fighters who have surrendered from the Azovstal steelworks in Mariupol – and confusion too about how many remain inside.

Russia has just said another 771 have left, taking the total to 1,730. But numbers have always been a bit uncertain in the battle for this strategically crucial southern port.

Until recently there were said to have been 2,000 Ukrainian fighters holding out. If we take the Russian claim of the total who have surrendered, that could mean a few hundred are still inside the labyrinthine tunnels of the steel plant.

Indeed, pro-Russian media have said the leaders of the Azov Battalion are yet to surrender.

This controversial unit of the Ukrainian armed forces is a bête noir of the Russians, featuring prominently in Kremlin propaganda. Russia accuses them of being naz_s, something Ukraine has always denied.

Meanwhile, some Russian law makers have said they should be treated as war criminals rather than prisoners of war. Vyacheslav Volodin, the Speaker of the Duma, Russia’s Parliament, said "naz_ criminals should not be exchanged".

One prominent MP even said the death penalty should be reintroduced to deal with them. Leonid coughsky, who had previously taken part in negotiations with Ukraine, called them "animals in human form".

Given this context, it may be that surrender becomes an increasingly less attractive offer for who remain. The question is, what do they plan to do instead?

- from BBC blog https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61461805