Discussion on Ukraine situation 2022

[Pushka]

I think the air bnb thing is a noble idea but there are other ways of giving support too

A reply from an AirBNB. Note that many are donating their days to open up for others who need accommodation. And there are many ways of giving. But sometimes that is also a means of avoiding giving. This cost me all of $35. I will do more in the cities mentioned here. I had to translate this from the language of the Airbnb host.

Hello xx_x
Thank you for all your help! In the last 24 hours we have received more than 10 such donations from all over the planet: Great Britain, Australia, Canada, USA, Germany, Estonia, Lithuania, Switzerland, Portugal, Netherlands, China and others.
Compared to cities that are now in the epicenter of the war - in Zaporozhye the situation is more or less normal.
Russia shells the airport and other military facilities located on the perimeter of the city, explosions are rare in the city itself.
There are a few small towns that are in the way of Russian troops to Zaporizhzhya. For example, Vasilievka. There, Russia uses everything it has: aerial bombs, artillery, rockets. The destruction of homes and infrastructure there is colossal. There are many civilian casualties.
We hope that a miracle will happen and it will not affect our city. At the same time, many citizens are rallying to the impending danger and are beginning to help hospitals. Together with neighbors and friends, we contribute money, buy food, clothes, for the wounded, and fill sandbags and put them in the windows of the hospitals. Thank you for your donation, we will use the money to help the wounded and refugees.
The news in Russia, where the facts are not just distorted, but turned upside down, is astounding. For example, the fact that civilians are blocking roads used by Russian equipment is presented there as protests against the Ukrainian army. The shelling of civilian houses by Russian troops is presented as shelling by the Ukrainian army. Russia's actions have turned almost the entire population of Ukraine very much against Russia.
Thank you again for your help and your country's help to us. Together we will endure.
Peace to us all!

 

[PineappleSkip]

US history of isolationism since the 19th century

Que? The self-styled leader of the free world? There was a sort of isolationist president from 2016 to 2020, apart from that I’d call the post war US history one of unmatched global adventurism. Of course, several unsuccessful adventures since 1953 have tempered that.

IIRC my comment was about concerns in the small Baltic states that they would be next. Most improbable. The opportunity for a NATO state to invoke article 5 arises if they are attacked. Syria and Ukraine aren’t members, unlike Estonia and Latvia.

Of course the obligation is on each member to respond. Just how depends on the member. Sure, the US and France (and the UK) have self defence and their own interests behind their diplomacies and their nukes; who doesn’t? In any case I think any attack on NATO is an academic concept. Putin is not quite that crazy (I hope!) and his demands about rolling back looked like bargaining ploys. And of course NATO itself is being careful not to draw an attack, which would be catastrophic for all because of what Article 5 entails.

cheers skip

 

[drron]

Well the US was certainly isolationist for most of the 19th century and early 20th century. Pearl Harbour changed all that.

An interesting video featuring on Twitter with a certain US President in his UN adress warning Germany of the dangers of relying on Russian gas. The German delegation were all laughing. Probably not laughing now.

 

[burmans]

More recently, President Obama repeatedly declared 'a line in the sand' during the Syrian war - yet each time it was crossed, nothing happened. More recently Biden left no doubt in Putin's mind about what the US would do by stating that no 'American boots will be put at risk'.

Obligation is one thing, action is another.

A bit like the rhetoric around 'naz_ Germany', how many countries said never again but yet here we are.

 

[jrfsp]

Well the US was certainly isolationist for most of the 19th century and early 20th century. Pearl Harbour changed all that.

An interesting video featuring on Twitter with a certain US President in his UN adress warning Germany of the dangers of relying on Russian gas. The German delegation were all laughing. Probably not laughing now.

The Germans certainly got it wrong, now much of the EU will pay the price. Remind me who the sanctions are against?

Russia warns West of $300 per barrel oil, cuts to EU gas supply

Western countries could face oil prices of over $300 per barrel and the possible closure of the main Russia-Germany gas pipeline if governments follow through on threats to cut energy supplies from Russia, a senior minister said on Monday.

www.reuters.com

 

[burmans]

The Germans certainly got it wrong, now much of the EU will pay the price. Remind me who the sanctions are against?

Russia warns West of $300 per barrel oil, cuts to EU gas supply

Western countries could face oil prices of over $300 per barrel and the possible closure of the main Russia-Germany gas pipeline if governments follow through on threats to cut energy supplies from Russia, a senior minister said on Monday.

www.reuters.com

Sometimes short term pain is needed for long term gain and in my view this situation has brought the reliance of some European states on Russian oil and gas sharply into focus which can only be a good thing. We already have a least one state who has virtually removed that dependence and if it motivates others to do similarly it’s a great outcome in my view, despite that short term pain.

 

[dajop]

If Russian oil goes, no doubt Iran will be forgiven (in the works already), although that alone won't help cover the shortfall. And watch China (and perhaps India) suck up all the cheap oil Russia can't sell to the west. Russia and the west's loss will be China's gain.

 

[Must...Fly!]

It most certainly has thrown Angela Merkel's legacy in to some serious shadows. Her knee-jerk populist reaction to the Fukushima disaster was bad policy at the time and now a disastrous highlight of an otherwise fine Chancellorship.

 

[Must...Fly!]

If Russian oil goes, no doubt Iran will be forgiven (in the works already), although that alone won't help cover the shortfall. And watch China (and perhaps India) suck up all the cheap oil Russia can't sell to the west. Russia and the west's loss will be China's gain.

The Kremlin knows that China cannot be relied upon in the long term and I very much doubt China wishes to be energy dependent on Russia either. But in the short term they will play ball.

I suspect there is a lot of high level discussion going on between the USA and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia at the moment. The diplomatic issues between them over the past few years are likely to fade in to being a distant memory.

 

[dajop]

But in the short term they will play ball.

Oh yes, it would be purely opportunistic, probably if nothing else to build up stockpiles.

 

[drron]

So some history on how Europe became dependent on Russian Energy.
.

Michael Shellenberger @ShellenbergerMD
In 2014, NATO's secretary general revealed Russia was funding climate activists, saying, “Russia... engaged actively with so-called nongovernmental organizations working against shale gas to maintain dependence on imported Russian gas" Nobody listened.

Elon Musk Goes Nuclear

Over the last few weeks I have been making the point on Twitter and to television audiences that Europe empowered Putin to invade Ukraine by becoming dependent on him for energy.

michaelshellenberger.substack.com

Elon Musk @elonmusk
Hopefully, it is now extremely obvious that Europe should restart dormant nuclear power stations and increase power output of existing ones. This is *critical* to national and international security.
March 6th 2022

Elon Musk


@elonmusk
·
Mar 7

Replying to
@elonmusk
For those who (mistakenly) think this is a radiation risk, pick what you think is the worst location. I will travel there & eat locally grown food on TV. I did this in Japan many years ago, shortly after Fukushima. Radiation risk is much, much lower than most people believe.

And why nuclear is needed.

How much nuclear energy would be needed to replace European natural gas?

The scale of the challenge is large, but doable

rogerpielkejr.substack.com

 

[RAM]

The Germans certainly got it wrong, now much of the EU will pay the price. Remind me who the sanctions are against?

Russia warns West of $300 per barrel oil, cuts to EU gas supply

Western countries could face oil prices of over $300 per barrel and the possible closure of the main Russia-Germany gas pipeline if governments follow through on threats to cut energy supplies from Russia, a senior minister said on Monday.

www.reuters.com

Who suffers the most from rising prices for oil and gas?

No, not Australia, nor the US, nor Europe....

C H I N A ! The world's largest importer of both oil & gas, also largest importer of coal (closely followed by India who also has remained 'neutral'). Anybody been watching the coal price recently?


Which major economy has the lowest output per unit of energy input?

Yes, you guessed it, C H I N A.

Let's see just how long China remains neutral.

BTW: many foreign contracts with 'private' Chinese manufacturing companies are fixed price contracts with no cost escalation allowed. Most large multi-nationals' contracts with private Chinese manufacturing companies are fixed price, including nearly all involving gas feedstocks such as used for plastic production.

 

[jrfsp]

Who suffers the most from rising prices for oil and gas?

No, not Australia, nor the US, nor Europe....

C H I N A ! The world's largest importer of both oil & gas, also largest importer of coal (closely followed by India who also has remained 'neutral'). Anybody been watching the coal price recently?
View attachment 273056

Which major economy has the lowest output per unit of energy input?

Yes, you guessed it, C H I N A.

Let's see just how long China remains neutral.

BTW: many foreign contracts with 'private' Chinese manufacturing companies are fixed price contracts with no cost escalation allowed. Most large multi-nationals' contracts with private Chinese manufacturing companies are fixed price, including nearly all involving gas feedstocks such as used for plastic production.

But Chinas supply from Russia wont be getting cut off - it would be priced differently to that being sourced by the EU for instance.

 

[RAM]

If Russian oil goes, no doubt Iran will be forgiven (in the works already), although that alone won't help cover the shortfall. And watch China (and perhaps India) suck up all the cheap oil Russia can't sell to the west. Russia and the west's loss will be China's gain.

Trouble is you need to get the ships to carry it from Russia to China, and the crews.

Some sanctions can be a real issue if actually applied. Just as the British dockworkers publicised how the UK Govt wasn't really applying sanctions to Russian oil & gas by exempting foreign flagged vessels carrying it...

Public opinion can re-shape entrenched political views - just look at Germany's about face on meeting their funding commitment to Defence that Trump first brought to the world's attention in 2017. Promised some years earlier to meet the NATO requirement of spending 2% of GDP on Defence, an as Trump put it 'stop freeloading on the US tax payer'.

Was gradually increasing their spending under Merkel (at a snail's pace). German polling turned ugly on lack of defence spending since early Feb and it changed.

OR:

Sending arms to Ukraine instead of helmets.

OR:

Germany & France were the holdouts from cutting off any Russian financial institutions from SWIFT. Once that was revealed to the public - Germany & France coincidentally agreed to start cutting off two days later.

Which country is the largest SWIFT counterparty (by value) with Russian Banks? Did you guess Germany...

 

[jrfsp]

Trouble is you need to get the ships to carry it from Russia to China, and the crews.

Some sanctions can be a real issue if actually applied. Just as the British dockworkers publicised how the UK Govt wasn't really applying sanctions to Russian oil & gas by exempting foreign flagged vessels carrying it...

Public opinion can re-shape entrenched political views - just look at Germany's about face on meeting their funding commitment to Defence that Trump first brought to the world's attention in 2017. Promised some years earlier to meet the NATO requirement of spending 2% of GDP on Defence, an as Trump put it 'stop freeloading on the US tax payer'.

Was gradually increasing their spending under Merkel (at a snail's pace). German polling turned ugly on lack of defence spending since early Feb and it changed.

OR:

Sending arms to Ukraine instead of helmets.

OR:

Germany & France were the holdouts from cutting off any Russian financial institutions from SWIFT. Once that was revealed to the public - Germany & France coincidentally agreed to start cutting off two days later.

Which country is the largest SWIFT counterparty (by value) with Russian Banks? Did you guess Germany...

Putin hails China oil and gas deals amid tensions with Europe

Russia agrees deal to supply gas to China via a new pipeline as tensions simmer with European customers over Ukraine.

www.aljazeera.com

More pipelines in the pipeline

 

[RAM]

But Chinas supply from Russia wont be getting cut off - it would be priced differently to that being sourced by the EU for instance.

May well be true but it is only a fraction of total imports of gas. Then add in oil, coal, titanium, wheat...

China is a price taker on every major import.

Whilst the world's Govts acquiesced to China's rise, theft of IP etc etc - the free market (cartels?) acted.

In the late 2000s I had a detailed look at the Chinese terms of trade in real Trade Weighted Terms (adjusts for import make-up separately to export make-up).

On average the real cost of China's imports had more than doubled since 1997 and the nominal value of its exports 'per unit' had dropped. Some simplistic examples are the cost of toasters, electric jugs, TV screens, Computer screens, furniture, clothing - all had fallen in nominal (sticker price) terms. Remember how much a large screen TV (back when 36" LCD was a large screen) were in the late 1990s early 2000s?

Today a 60" TV costs 1/3rd what a 36" flat screen cost in 2000 - yet requires nearly 4 times the raw materials (which have not gotten any cheaper).

In 2007 - a private plastics injection moulding company (3 large factories with a 4th significantly larger one under construction), with contracts from BMW, Audi, Toyota, Ford (US), GM (US), VW - were bidding on fixed price contracts for 0 to 1% margins (and no cost escalation allowed) just to be able to keep their workers in jobs. When they started out in the late 1980s they bid with 20-25% margins with cost escalation clauses.

All the workers came from the same region in China, as one of the owner's sons explained - "Unlike Australia, China has no welfare, we're our villages' welfare."

 

[drron]

Putin hails China oil and gas deals amid tensions with Europe

Russia agrees deal to supply gas to China via a new pipeline as tensions simmer with European customers over Ukraine.

www.aljazeera.com

More pipelines in the pipeline

Already being built.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjgncbU9bX2AhUhzTgGHUf8BsgQFnoECAUQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.upstreamonline.com%2Fproduction%2Fgazprom-takes-on-mongolia-gas-pipeline-task-with-chinese-market-in-sight%2F2-1-994786&usg=AOvVaw23LDDFvSyRjES5Aipn2XSw

The first pipeline was operational in 2019 the second received final approval recently.
Plus lots of CSG has been found in Mongolia. An Australian company made the first discovery and is planning to begin production later this year.

 

[jrfsp]

Trouble is you need to get the ships to carry it from Russia to China, and the crews.

Some sanctions can be a real issue if actually applied. Just as the British dockworkers publicised how the UK Govt wasn't really applying sanctions to Russian oil & gas by exempting foreign flagged vessels carrying it...

Public opinion can re-shape entrenched political views - just look at Germany's about face on meeting their funding commitment to Defence that Trump first brought to the world's attention in 2017. Promised some years earlier to meet the NATO requirement of spending 2% of GDP on Defence, an as Trump put it 'stop freeloading on the US tax payer'.

Was gradually increasing their spending under Merkel (at a snail's pace). German polling turned ugly on lack of defence spending since early Feb and it changed.

OR:

Sending arms to Ukraine instead of helmets.

OR:

Germany & France were the holdouts from cutting off any Russian financial institutions from SWIFT. Once that was revealed to the public - Germany & France coincidentally agreed to start cutting off two days later.

Which country is the largest SWIFT counterparty (by value) with Russian Banks? Did you guess Germany...

Of course. Only yesterday Germany and the Netherlands rejected the US plan for halting Russian oil imports.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1499313698405556225

The money is still flowing from Europe into Russia thanks to Oil & Gas exports, from Russia with love for funding the war.

 

[RAM]

Already being built.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjgncbU9bX2AhUhzTgGHUf8BsgQFnoECAUQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.upstreamonline.com%2Fproduction%2Fgazprom-takes-on-mongolia-gas-pipeline-task-with-chinese-market-in-sight%2F2-1-994786&usg=AOvVaw23LDDFvSyRjES5Aipn2XSw

The first pipeline was operational in 2019 the second received final approval recently.
Plus lots of CSG has been found in Mongolia. An Australian company made the first discovery and is planning to begin production later this year.

There are massive differences between moving oil and moving gas.

Gas is relatively easy to move by pipelines over thousands of kms, oil is not. This is especially so when you are transiting permafrost areas.

Russian oil can only (98+%) get to China via oil tankers.

Russia is planning to build a second gas pipeline but it has not even commenced construction of it = no solution to current supply/cost issues, and will not be for some years. China is facing massive price increases for all (but Russian-sourced perhaps) new contracts for oil & gas (which roll over weekly due to the massive volumes China imports as world's biggest importer of both).

Meanwhile there is not one of the Top 20 commodities imported by China that has not significantly increased in price.

BTW - you may recall that both Rio & BHP stopped 'annual contract prices' negotiations with China more than a decade ago. They reverted to using a version of the spot prices.

China is being hit with a 'Russia Tax' - trouble is that this tax is going into the pockets of a few dozen companies Western countries (& their consultants/lobbyists). In the case of most exported Australian gas - it will not result in one extra dollar of revenue for the Australian community by way of taxes or excise etc.

Meanwhile Qatar is seeing the earnings from its gas exports skyrocketing (as is Norway's Country fund). The only thing (I suspect) increasing within Australia are political donations. Trouble is we won't see those details until after June 2023.

 

[drron]

An oil pipeline from Russia to China has been operating for 10 years.

Eastern Siberia–Pacific Ocean oil pipeline - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

And the Trans Alaska pipeline has been operating fo 45 years across the permafrost.

Trans-Alaska Pipeline System - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org