Discussion on Ukraine situation 2022

[drron]

.

A captured Russian soldier in Ukraine fed andand given an opportunity to talk to his mother.

On the other hand there is this.

️Correction: Ukrainian special forces will no longer capture Russian artillerymen.

The command of Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces has warned that it will not spare Russian artillerymen in response to their “brutal shelling” of civilians and cities.

Then this. A bit of humour amongst the pain.

️Anti-corruption authorities: No need to declare Russian tanks as income.

The National Agency for the Protection against Corruption said that captured Russian equipment should not be declared to tax authorities because the value of this “cough” does not exceed 100 living wages.

 

[VPS]

Kind of sad but true

 

[NM]

I have visited Kiev three times in the past, first in 1999, and my last visit was in 2003. Just in those 4 years the changes that I observed in the private life of the family I know (and stayed with) was amazing as they came out of the previous regime oppression. We have received information indicating the family are, at least for now, as safe as anyone can expect to be in Ukraine. I won't post any identifying details of their situation publicly, but happy to share the back-story over a beer or whisky with anyone interested. Their story starts with how Chernobyl shattered their life (blamed on Russian incompetence) and now its being shattered again.

I do hope I can visit Ukraine again, and in particular Kiev, again in the future. But for now, my prayers and thoughts are with those suffering and in particular the family we know and love there.

 

[jrfsp]

Reports of Russian airforce jet incursions in Swedish airspace. (The Age / SMH)

Whether deliberate or accidental, incursions into others airspace is only likely to increase tensions.

 

[vetrade]

Reports of Russian airforce jet incursions in Swedish airspace. (The Age / SMH)

Whether deliberate or accidental, incursions into NATO member airspace is only likely to increase tensions. If there are any live fire exchanges between NATO forces and Russia it wont be good.

They don't have a shared border so it can't have been by accident - Russians would have to have overflown the Baltic Sea or Finnish airspace as well

 

[dairyfloss]

Sweden is not in NATO (yet)

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Still have the Winter Paralympics to go from March 4 but I guess no one really cares much about that...

Russian athletes banned from Beijing Paralympics after huge backflip

Just one day before the Beijing Winter Paralympics Opening Ceremony, the International Paralympic Committee (IPC) Governing Board has decided to refuse Russia and Belarus athletes entry to the Games.

www.news.com.au

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Next step of sanctions perhaps

US lawmakers introduce bill to fund Ukrainians with proceeds from seized Russian assets​

Western nations have imposed crippling sanctions on several Russian billionaires, intending to freeze or seize their assets.

Some in the US are pushing for even more sanctions targeted at allies of Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

As part of that effort, a bipartisan group of US lawmakers introduced on Thursday a unique bill that would empower the Biden administration to use the proceeds from sanctioned assets to help Ukraine.

"Typically, sanctioned assets are frozen, not permanently confiscated, an appropriate safeguard under more normal circumstances," said Representative Tom Malinowski, who is co-sponsoring the legislation.

"But in this extraordinary case, we think it would be fitting and right to use the wealth that has supported Putin to help the country he is destroying."

Malinowski added that seeing the luxury apartments, villas and yachts of oligarchs seized would "give Ukrainians and Russians who hate Putin a huge boost" in a war that is being partly defined by morale.

from BBC blog

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60582327

 

[drron]

Lots of companies suspending operations in Russia.

Companies cut Russia operations and trade as sanctions tighten

Companies have limited, put on hold or exited business activities in Russia following a wave of sanctions imposed after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

www.reuters.com

Nike, IKEA close Russian stores as sanctions, trade restrictions bite

Sneaker maker Nike and home furnishings firm IKEA shut down stores in Russia on Thursday, as trade restrictions and supply constraints added to political pressure for companies to stop business in Russia because of its invasion of Ukraine.

www.reuters.com

France seizing Russian vessels including a super yacht.

France seizes superyacht, says belongs to Rosneft boss

French customs have seized a yacht belonging to Rosneft boss Igor Sechin as it tried to leave the Mediterranean port of La Ciotat in a breach of EU sanctions on Russian oligarchs, Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said.

www.reuters.com

But the Russian Foreign Minister says they will continue military activities to the end.

Lavrov says Russia will continue Ukraine war till 'the end'

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Thursday he believed some foreign leaders were preparing for war against Russia and that Moscow would press on with its military operation in Ukraine until "the end".

www.reuters.com

And the situation as of yesterday.

Ukraine to seek humanitarian corridors in talks with Russia

Ukraine said it would call for humanitarian corridors for its besieged citizens at peace talks with Russia on Thursday, as war entered its second week with Ukrainian cities surrounded and under bombardment.

www.reuters.com

If blocked for Reuters pages you can get a free subscription.

 

[burmans]

Some warfare/occupation analysis/opinion

If the past is anything to go by, Russia will struggle to occupy Ukraine | CNN

Ukraine's resistance to the Russian invasion has shown strength that has surprised many observers, but one international expert points out how historical precedent bodes poorly for Moscow's forces in the long term should it be unable to subdue the country quickly.

edition.cnn.com

Pretty much aligns with my view, if they are struggling to win the battle they probably can't win the war. Combine that with all the sanctions this is going to become very unpopular at home fairly quickly.

 

[vetrade]

Pretty much aligns with my view, if they are struggling to win the battle they probably can't win the war. Combine that with all the sanctions this is going to become very unpopular at home fairly quickly.

Yes, but, stating the oibvious, Putin and his cronies are just like Xi and the CCP - they have so much dominance over their respective countries that being unpopular with their own people means absolutely nothing to them and has zero effect on modifying their behaviour

 

[jb747]

Yes, but, stating the oibvious, Putin and his cronies are just like Xi and the CCP - they have so much dominance over their respective countries that being unpopular with their own people means absolutely nothing to them and has zero effect on modifying their behaviour

True, but many dictators in the past have found that once aroused, an angry population is a very dangerous thing.

Russia would seem to be attempting to occupy a country with a concentrated population, that's in the order of a third of their own. No friends at home or abroad wouldn't seem to be a good place.

 

[drron]

This isn't good.
️Russian forces are firing at Europe's largest nuclear power plant, the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station in Enerhodar, a city on the Dnipro River that accounts for about one-quarter of Ukraine’s power generation.

The city’s Mayor Dmytro Orlov said the plant is now on fire.

 

[jrfsp]

This isn't good.
️Russian forces are firing at Europe's largest nuclear power plant, the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station in Enerhodar, a city on the Dnipro River that accounts for about one-quarter of Ukraine’s power generation.

The city’s Mayor Dmytro Orlov said the plant is now on fire.

You'd think after Chernobyl they'd be wary of nuclear plants!

Rostov sits nicely in the direction of prevailing wind - you'd think that would be incentive enough!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1499543775240196099

 

[drron]

And more on the nuclear power plant.
DefenceGeek@DefenceGeekWhat we know about #NuclearPlant attack in #Ukriane tonight:
Current time 03:10hrs
3 of 6 reactors shut down yesterday
2 more shut down during fighting tonight, status of last unknown
Control room building on fire & Russians opened fire on firefighters
☢ level up...

 

[PineappleSkip]

Conflicting reports of what's on fire at Zaporizhzhia

NYT blog

Security camera footage filmed early on Friday and verified by The Times showed a building ablaze inside the power complex near a line of military vehicles. The videos appeared to show people in the vehicles firing at buildings in the power plant. It’s unclear if the vehicles were Russian or Ukrainian.

 

[VPS]

The new blue plaques in London

 

[Pushka]

Lots of companies suspending operations in Russia.

Companies cut Russia operations and trade as sanctions tighten

Companies have limited, put on hold or exited business activities in Russia following a wave of sanctions imposed after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

www.reuters.com

Nike, IKEA close Russian stores as sanctions, trade restrictions bite

Sneaker maker Nike and home furnishings firm IKEA shut down stores in Russia on Thursday, as trade restrictions and supply constraints added to political pressure for companies to stop business in Russia because of its invasion of Ukraine.

www.reuters.com

France seizing Russian vessels including a super yacht.

France seizes superyacht, says belongs to Rosneft boss

French customs have seized a yacht belonging to Rosneft boss Igor Sechin as it tried to leave the Mediterranean port of La Ciotat in a breach of EU sanctions on Russian oligarchs, Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said.

www.reuters.com

But the Russian Foreign Minister says they will continue military activities to the end.

Lavrov says Russia will continue Ukraine war till 'the end'

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Thursday he believed some foreign leaders were preparing for war against Russia and that Moscow would press on with its military operation in Ukraine until "the end".

www.reuters.com

And the situation as of yesterday.

Ukraine to seek humanitarian corridors in talks with Russia

Ukraine said it would call for humanitarian corridors for its besieged citizens at peace talks with Russia on Thursday, as war entered its second week with Ukrainian cities surrounded and under bombardment.

www.reuters.com

If blocked for Reuters pages you can get a free subscription.

Julie Bishop was quite confident the other day that Putin will see this to the end and anything either Ukraine or Russia suffers is a small price to pay and necessary.

 

[drron]

Conflicting reports of what's on fire at Zaporizhzhia

NYT blog

Just to be clear there is no danger of a Chernobyl or Fukushima type incident. 5 of the 6 reactors already shut down. The problem with those incidents was they couldn't shut down the reactors so an uncontrollable reaction then explosion releasing fission products into the atmosphere.

By setting fire to the control building the Russians are going to severely limit electricity production.

 

[NM]

Just to be clear there is no danger of a Chernobyl or Fukushima type incident. 5 of the 6 reactors already shut down. The problem with those incidents was they couldn't shut down the reactors so an uncontrollable reaction then explosion releasing fission products into the atmosphere.

By setting fire to the control building the Russians are going to severely limit electricity production.

Unless, of course, someone wants to sabotage the plant to cause considerable "collateral" damage to infrastructure. While the reactors may no longer be operating, I expect there is a considerable amount of "nasty" stuff around the plant that needs to remain contained.