Egyptair Flight MS804 Disappeared from Radar [New conclusion]

[juddles]

"If" the radar-indicated two turns are accurate it makes no sense. I can't think of any scenario that would not include a humungous tech failure, or more likely, mayhem in the coughpit.

 

[juddles]

Anyway, this armchair expert is off to bed. At the end of the day, as tragic as these events are, they are truly also RARE.

In a few days I do another lap around the planet and this event does not lessen my confidence in flying. Thank you aviation in general, and more so to the pilots.

 

[CaptJCool]

For anyone who's enjoyed the fog of 'Canberra', 360 turns are slow unlike policy backflips

heres anothe recent 360 as an example

 

[jb747]

"If" the radar-indicated two turns are accurate it makes no sense. I can't think of any scenario that would not include a humungous tech failure, or more likely, mayhem in the coughpit.

There isn't enough information to even start to draw a conclusion.

One of the things that seems to be happen in aviation of late, is that accidents have ceased being caused by the old reasons...and most now seem to be oddball. As I see it, the manufacturers, and training systems, and built in protections, have removed many of the historic causes of accidents...but along the way have introduced a raft of new and unusual ones.

 

[marki]

I do a plus one on that ( agree)!

Anyway, this armchair expert is off to bed. At the end of the day, as tragic as these events are, they are truly also RARE.

In a few days I do another lap around the planet and this event does not lessen my confidence in flying. Thank you aviation in general, and more so to the pilots.

 

[marki]

I would say so if you are a fighter pilot doing daily training. I won't extrapolate to regular commercial flights but for some 15 seconds maybe to the contrary "not" enough there will be misting, loud noise, and finding the mask not quickly enough. At these high altitudes this represents circulation time from the oxygenated blood in the pulmonary veins time to reach the the brain. About 12-15 seconds. And the flow of Oxygen is reversed from the blood into the low partial pressure of Oxygen filled pulmonary vesicles A massive sudden depressurisation requires a very quick descent. Still a big if whether they managed to don the masks in time. ( we will find out in time ) At the moment this is gross speculation, trial balloons.

That's an eternity...

 

[marki]

Terrorism is blamed ( yet to be confirmed on BBC)

 

[jb747]

I would say so if you are a fighter pilot doing daily training. I won't extrapolate to regular commercial flights but for some 15 seconds maybe to the contrary "not" enough there will be misting, loud noise, and finding the mask not quickly enough. At these high altitudes this represents circulation time from the oxygenated blood in the pulmonary veins time to reach the the brain. About 12-15 seconds. And the flow of Oxygen is reversed from the blood into the low partial pressure of Oxygen filled pulmonary vesicles A massive sudden depressurisation requires a very quick descent. Still a big if whether they managed to don the masks in time. ( we will find out in time ) At the moment this is gross speculation, trial balloons.

Marki, you forget that I've done it for real....

 

[marki]

Marki, you forget that I've done it for real....

Your experience is exceptional and of course I enjoy discussing this experience with you!

 

[Skyring]

Monitoring the PPPRuNe thread. (And it bears repeating that the "Ru" in the site name stands for "Rumours")

Two things struck me.

It seems the crew did not respond to an ATC call two minutes before radar contact lost. The regulars are debating what that means, if anything. Could be just a dead spot in the radio coverage. Could be that the "Aviate Navigate Communicate" priority meant that the crew was busy doing more important stuff.

An interesting comment from someone who has been dealing with the Egyptian government:

First time, long time. I am not a pilot but currently working with the federal government of Egypt very closely on a large project there. I have dealt directly with members of the country's cabinet recently, although not in matters related to aviation.

There are people here that have said we should wait for more clear facts about the crash to arise before speculating. I'm going to take a wild guess that many of those people reside and in and have generally spent more of their professional lives in a developed country such an North America or Europe.

When dealing with this culture, integrity and facts simply are not valued in the same manner as they might be in other cultures, and I might imagine that this might have an impact of activities like an accident investigation. Face saving abounds in this culture. The regime also currently has taken widespread criticism over free speech in Egypt.

This sounds eminently plausible to me. Official announcements coming out of Egypt may be taken with a grain of salt.

 

[drron]

Ok you twisted my arm. They meet in J,wear the same ill fitting suits, adjourn to the galley for a smoke (regularly), stare at each passenger, then take their seats. Call me observant.

Even a few years ago we had 4 RJ sectors.3 obvious security fellows on 3 but could only identify 2 on a late night flight.Put it down to the third being asleep.
Seems they haven't changed their behavior over the last 5 years!

 

[Aussie_flyer]

There isn't enough information to even start to draw a conclusion.

One of the things that seems to be happen in aviation of late, is that accidents have ceased being caused by the old reasons...and most now seem to be oddball. As I see it, the manufacturers, and training systems, and built in protections, have removed many of the historic causes of accidents...but along the way have introduced a raft of new and unusual ones.

I have noticed that too. And things happening in cruise seem to be routine rather than the takeoff /landing phase.

 

[docjames]

Donald Trump knows what happened!!!!

If anybody thinks it wasn’t blown out of the sky, you’re 100% wrong.

Case closed then.....

:evil: (for the Donald, not for Quickstatus)

 

[JohnK]

Sad news.

Terrorism is blamed ( yet to be confirmed on BBC)

A little suspicious but let's hope that's not the cause.

 

[love_the_life]

One passenger has been identified as a dual Brit - Australian who has been living in AU.

 

[JessicaTam]

ABC TV news has just reported that there has been some debris found.

EgyptAir flight MS804: Debris found north of Alexandria, military says - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

Hopefully it is not another false alarm.

 

[Skyring]

ABC TV news has just reported that there has been some debris found.

EgyptAir flight MS804: Debris found north of Alexandria, military says - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

Hopefully it is not another false alarm.

They are talking about airliner-related debris and body parts. Also an oil slick.

On PPPRuNe, the last radar data has been discussed. Consensus appears to be that a 90° turn left is standard procedure for a sudden depressurisation event, as the aircraft must descend quickly, and this gains immediate horizontal separation from any aircraft on the same airway at a lower flight level.

The subsequent 360° circle to the right is not in the drill, but some plausible reasons were advanced. This information would have been gained by plotting ground positions to establish a ground track, as opposed to somehow being able to see where the aircraft was heading at any one point, and is not consistent with (say) a spin, or debris falling. It indicates that the aircraft was under some control after a decompression event.

As the aircraft descended, it fell below direct radio and radar coverage, so there is no data about subsequent movements. Evidently descent continued until impact, which indicates that the pilots no longer had the control of the aircraft evidenced previously. Or that both engines had failed, but I'm getting close to speculation now.

The seafloor in that region is varied. South of Crete there is an area of broken ground, with ridges and valleys which would make recovery difficult and interfere with signals from the flight recorder. Further south along the intended flight path the floor becomes smoother, but is apparently soft mud into which wreckage might subside, attenuating signals etc.

Doubtless the Egyptians will deploy various assets to the debris field and we will see the usual sad images of aircraft wreckage, grim-faced recovery personnel, body bags, and so on.

And in due course the flight recorders will be recovered, along with wreckage indicating the initial cause of the crash.

Those who are saying terrorism, really have no evidence to justify this. Maybe some equipment failed in a way that breached hull integrity, maybe something in the hold caught fire or exploded. Who knows? I don't.

 

[whatmeworry]

Regarding terrorism, wouldn't it make more sense to time the setting off, of a device over land to maximise its impact?

 

[Skyring]

Regarding terrorism, wouldn't it make more sense to time the setting off, of a device over land to maximise its impact?

"Terrorism" and "sense" are two words with only a distant acquaintance.

 

[drron]

Though in what may be an awful coincidence one of the Air Crash Investigations this week featured Phillipines Airlines and a timed bomb on board.
Problem was the schedules are always subject to random events which may delay the flight so the bomb goes off well before the intended point in the flight.