Egyptair Flight MS804 Disappeared from Radar [New conclusion]

[Abdul_A350]

Son will need to reschedule. Another bullet dodged. My heart goes out to everyone involved.

 

[Milefest]

Could this be because of security risks at origin, destination, region of the world, recent history on MS??

That's more than one for every 19 pax on this flight, seems very unusual unless this was an intelligence-led placement.

 

[UP4014]

Could this be because of security risks at origin, destination, region of the world, recent history on MS??

And don't forget the recent hi-jacking.......just two months ago.

 

[Milefest]

There appears to a have been a distress signal: https://twitter.com/AlArabiya_Eng/status/733181809723379714

 

[footy99]

2 hours after it disappeared? Does that mean they know where it is?

 

[Captain hum]

News reports just now saying it has crashed.This was on Brisbane radio, so no idea if it is accurate or not..

 

[juddles]

In cruise phase and no radio communication. In that area and that airline? I am calling this a bombing.

 

[JessicaTam]

In cruise phase and no radio communication. In that area and that airline? I am calling this a bombing.

Whilst you may be correct, I think it is a bit premature.

Jumping on the radio is a low priority for a flight crew. Aviate, Navigate, then Communicate.

 

[juddles]

JT, I am trying to find a link for the news that a ship saw the explosion in the air. That still doesn't guarantee bomb, but it is hard to get modern airliners to explode mid air without help.

 

[Quickstatus]

JT, I am trying to find a link for the news that a ship saw the explosion in the air. That still doesn't guarantee bomb, but it is hard to get modern airliners to explode mid air without help.

(in the nicest possible way) ... I think we should avoid speculations at this point about what actually happened to the aircraft.

Local Sydney Radio news speculating that at 533kts that the aircraft was travelling way too fast - apparently information from the so called "experts" who did not take long to come out. Journalists just love to quote such "experts" - Get the news out even if it is not based on fact.

 

[UP4014]

(in the nicest possible way) ... I think we should avoid speculations at this point about what actually happened to the aircraft.

Local Sydney Radio news speculating that at 533kts that the aircraft was travelling way too fast - apparently information from the so called "experts" who did not take long to come out.

We speculate here all the time on what airline management, airport management, aircraft builders and every other related business is about to do next.......

 

[Orca]

Local Sydney Radio news speculating that at 533kts that the aircraft was travelling way too fast - apparently information from the so called "experts" who did not take long to come out. Journalists just love to quote such "experts" - Get the news out even if it is not based on fact.

Not necessarily true. A decent tailwind will easily allow that kind of groundspeed to be achieved. I'm not sure what the winds were in that area at the time but again, everything will be revealed in due course.

 

[Quickstatus]

We speculate here all the time on what airline management, airport management, aircraft builders and every other related business is about to do next.......

Yes we do but out of respect for those who perished I think we should wait a bit for the facts to emerge.

Not necessarily true. A decent tailwind will easily allow that kind of groundspeed to be achieved. I'm not sure what the winds were in that area at the time but again, everything will be revealed in due course.

Yes the facts will come out soon enough. It was just a comment about speculative opinions on radio.

 

[juddles]

......Yes the facts will come out soon enough. ....

I understand the need to respect the people involved, but "speculating" is what any possible conversation here would involve - with a high altitude plane break-up over water, I cannot see any rapid determination coming out. Even if they find and successfully recover and download a voice recorder, that may reveal bugger all in this one.

 

[jb747]

Local Sydney Radio news speculating that at 533kts that the aircraft was travelling way too fast - apparently information from the so called "experts" who did not take long to come out. Journalists just love to quote such "experts" - Get the news out even if it is not based on fact.

It would be nice if they'd actually ask some real experts, instead of the people they trot out each time.

Mach .8 converts to around 470 knots TAS. The wind over the Med in the area is currently about 80 knots, and would have been a quartering tail wind. Put the two together and a ground speed of 533 knots sounds correct.

 

[Quickstatus]

I understand the need to respect the people involved, but "speculating" is what any possible conversation here would involve - with a high altitude plane break-up over water, I cannot see any rapid determination coming out. Even if they find and successfully recover and download a voice recorder, that may reveal bugger all in this one.

Jean-Paul Troadec, former president of the French air accident investigation bureau (BEA) was asked by Europe 1 to speculate on what caused the plane’s disappearance.
He said:
“We have to remain very careful after the disappearance from the radars of the EgyptAir aircraft. The priority is to begin the investigation and to find, if possible, debris from the aircraft and eventually, the site of the wreckage. We can make certain hypotheses...there’s a strong possibility of an explosion on board from a bomb or a suicide bomber. The idea of a technical accident when weather conditions were good, seems also possible but not that likely. We could also consider a missile, which is what happened to the Malaysia Airlines aircraft in July 2014.
“If the crew didn’t send an alert signal, it’s because what happened was very sudden. A problem with an engine or a technical fault, would not produce an immediate accident. In this case, the crew did not react, which makes us think of a bomb.”

 

[juddles]

Jean-Paul Troadec, former president of the French air accident investigation bureau (BEA) was asked by Europe 1 to speculate on what caused the plane’s disappearance.
He said:......”

That is what I mean by discussion/speculation - IMHO serious and reasonable considering is ok speculation.

There will of course be "wild" speculation - such as the plane contained a cargo of the latest Exocet missiles that France was selling to Egypt, and the Israelis, scared of the impending arrival, used one of their sleeper agents in the Exocet factory to place a bomb in one of the missiles.

 

[Skyring]

Remember the MH370 disappearance? There were all manner of wild-assed guesses (to use the American technical term) and they were all way off beam. It was only much later, when subtle and very technical analysis emerged, that the truth also emerged.

So much as we know the truth, which is very sketchy, and likely to remain so until significant pieces of the wreckage are found.

There was a lot of talk, as I recall, about certain passengers and crew.

We don't know much about this flight beyond the basics. However, the Med is a far smaller and shallower body of water than the Southern Ocean, and we'll know details in due course.

Speculation is fun, but just about every guess, educated or not, involves laying blame or criticism on some of the people who have very likely perished.

I'd feel more comfortable reading this thread if we didn't start throwing rocks at people who must be presumed blameless until we know otherwise.

However, there are some in this community who know their subject very well. jb747's comment about speeds above is based on practical knowledge, and I am sure that he and others will provide more signal than noise as the facts come in.

I can't stop anyone from speculating and setting forth whatever pet theory they might have, but reading guesses about unfolding tragedies makes me very uncomfortable.

 

[Captain hum]

OK -Here's a forum I use a lot for stuff like this. Still a lot of speculation ,but at least it is mainly by pros . Here's the link to the relevant thread
EgyptAir 804 disappears from radar Paris-Cairo - PPRuNe Forums

 

[marki]

I wondered why 3 security personnel are required for flights into Egypt?

While this has been done now, reporting the first (or any) post alerts moderators much more effectively than a comment that can be overlooked.



CNN said there was no special cargo, yet they had 3 security personnel? Is that a normal number? I know some flights have air marshals, but I would imagine 3 is a high number for such a small plane.