General Coronavirus chit chat thread - non-travel specific

[lovetravellingoz]

I think the AFL player is interesting. Given the bubble they live in you have to wonder how he got. Is this another example of the 14 day incubation period being too short?

1/ Quarantine is to prevent people from infecting other people, and is not a period for people to no longer test positive at all.

2/ Back on the footballer. He tested 5 times straight with a negative before a recent result which then had him retested again to give a positive result. So they think he caught it in Australia. They no doubt will do genomic testing etc now to learn more about his case. All players on the list, and no doubt coaches have all been rested and all were negative.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

But what does 'getting the country moving again' mean? Tourism? People can holiday in their own state. Are we going to flock to a holiday in Queensland just because the borders open? Given 9 out of 10 people say they really don't want to fly at the moment, I'm not sure the benefits will be realised.

I agree that not everyone will start flying again straight away and no doubt there will be a lag effect. Re-open in July and say it may be Sept or later before things start to get healthy again.

But re-open in say Sept and say it may be Nov or later before things start to get healthy again.

 

[Gremlin]

North West Tassie was cordoned off when the NWRH and NWPH were closed.But even though road blocks on the highways people got out.Some just lied at the road blocks.
But a much higher chance of fines when caught.
So increased police patrols and a lot of stops to see why you are out and about and a low trigger to issue fines would certainly see reasonable compliance.

I don't doubt that's how it would happen, just thinking through the logistics of it. For example, there are eight road closures between Tweed and Coolangatta at the moment. Lots of cops required to maintain those entry/exit points, even as most are funnelling traffic to only one spot (the M1). Presumably similar for NW Tas - not a huge number of roads in/out to contain a reasonably large population.

But if you're trying to lock down a few particulars suburbs in Melbourne with entry points in all directions, it's a much bigger logistic exercise. A quick look at Google Maps suggests St Albans, one of the suburbs in question, has well in excess of 100 roads leading in/out of the suburb. Keilor Downs is relatively containable with only 35 roads in/out. If the driver of this is that people aren't following directives, would you expect an unmanned entry/exit point to be honoured?

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I agree that not everyone will start flying again straight away and no doubt there will be a lag effect. Re-open in July and say it may be Sept or later before things start to get healthy again.

But re-open in say Sept and say it may be Nov or later before things start to get healthy again.

But what is it, exactly, that will 'get moving' again? Restaurants, cafes and bars have their local catchment. Goods such as groceries are moving between states already. Online shopping and parcels are moving. Gyms, exercise and training have local catchment, as do cinemas.

FIFO workers would benefit. I can't think off the top of my head of a business that needs to travel, especially now we have tried and tested WFH and remote meetings.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Which again indicates high likelihood of undetected/asymptomaric spread, probably almost everywhere.

Perhaps more the first with people just assuming it was a flu/cold.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

FIFO workers would benefit. I can't think off the top of my head of a business that needs to travel, especially now we have tried and tested WFH and remote meetings.

Well many tourist businesses need customers from outside of a driving catchment to be viable. ie Gold Coast, Theme Parks, Uluru, Penguin Parade, Tasmania etc

There are many skills which are not always found locally. ie the petrol/diesel, lpg at all service stations in Australia will stop flowing without the staff of the contractors that service them. Tasmania for example has this flown in each summer to do vital tasks. This applies to every station in Australia outside of the larger capital cities, or an easy drive from them.

Engineering consultants, and I am sure many other consultants. Yes much of the work does not need travel, but some does.

 

[MelMel]

I have family living in Rome (Aussie expats) in mid February all three of them were sick with what they assumed was Influenza. Their four year old had a rolling fever for eight days and they said they have never felt so sick in their lives. They now wonder if they had in fact caught Covid

 

[Hvr]

While some people are resisting quarantine, others are embracing it and complying to the strictest requirements. A New Zealand chap was very clever.

“When the person was ready for discharge, he was asked for a forwarding address, only to tell the official that he didn’t have one because he was homeless.

“He hadn’t come back from overseas, he just joined the back of the queue two weeks ago, and spent a fortnight getting three square meals and a bath every day on the Government.”

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

But what does 'getting the country moving again' mean? Tourism? People can holiday in their own state. Are we going to flock to a holiday in Queensland just because the borders open? Given 9 out of 10 people say they really don't want to fly at the moment, I'm not sure the benefits will be realised.

opening the borders isn't going to ease the one person per 4sq metre rule. So hospitality isn't going to see a dramatic improvement in numbers.

I think get the country moving again means getting back to as close to normal activity - the choice to do what you please. Whether it be interstate /intrastate tourism, Going to an event, walking the dog, and yes going to the beach.

Though I hate using polls for the purposes of persuading people about policy as it’s not a great tool, to counter your poll I give you the Lowy Institute:

• Once the pandemic is contained, the majority of Australians (59%) remain as willing to travel as prior to the outbreak. Three in ten (35%) say they will be less likely to travel.

COVIDpoll: Lowy Institute Polling on Australian Attitudes to the Coronavirus Pandemic

The Lowy Institute COVIDpoll finds that almost all Australians say Australia has handled COVID-19 well, but most are disappointed by China and the United States’ response.

www.lowyinstitute.org

.

Opening borders will increase the number of physical/social interactions - no doubt about that. Yes it won’t lead to a decrease in the 4 sqm rule but tourists can get takeaway if needed.

Hotels and resorts will also get more business if more people are allowed to cross borders.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Hotels and resorts will also get more business if more people are allowed to cross borders.

That's the assumption... but with 4sq/m rule, local pubs, restaurants etc will possibly already be at capacity. There is no guarantee theme parks will open.

There are many skills which are not always found locally. ie the petrol/diesel, lpg at all service stations in Australia will stop flowing without the staff of the contractors that service them. Tasmania for example has this flown in each summer to do vital tasks. This applies to every station in Australia outside of the larger capital cities, or an easy drive from them.

Engineering consultants, and I am sure many other consultants. Yes much of the work does not need travel, but some does.

Couple of good examples there.

 

[Pushka]

I think that once the Protest March occurred then many had the attitude that if they were allowed to proceed then the Covid restrictions were a farce.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I think that once the Protest March occurred then many had the attitude that if they were allowed to proceed then the Covid restrictions were a farce.

Perhaps domestic restrictions, excluding personal hygiene.

For example, I hear people even questioning 4 sqm. No one is really questioning international travel bans atm.

 

[drron]

Many restaurants and virtually all hotels,motels and apartments etc on the Gold Coast rely on the tourist for up to 80% of their business.And depending on season 60-80% of their tourists are from interstate.
On the Sunshine Coast International tourism isn't as numerous as on the Gold Coast so 95% of arrivals at MCY are from interstate.Many more drive from Interstate to stay on the Sunshine Coast.At least 2 unit complexes in Noosa have lost all their business as 100% of their customers are interstate visitors and most have the same booking every year especially during winter.

 

[OZDUCK]

Perhaps domestic restrictions, excluding personal hygiene.

For example, I hear people even questioning 4 sqm. No one is really questioning international travel bans atm.

Well, W.A. has not had the 4 sqm rule since June 6 - it was reduced to 2 sqm.

 

[Pushka]

Well, W.A. has not had the 4 sqm rule since June 6 - it was reduced to 2 sqm.

True but you couldn’t have that in Victoria currently. SA could loosen up as well.

 

[p--and--t]

Well, W.A. has not had the 4 sqm rule since June 6 - it was reduced to 2 sqm.

Well that's a pretty senseless rule then. May as well not have the rule at all.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Well, W.A. has not had the 4 sqm rule since June 6 - it was reduced to 2 sqm.

Yes, I was aware of this. I guess another reason apart from Protest March why people questioning 4sqm rule that is in place elsewhere.

True but you couldn’t have that in Victoria currently. SA could loosen up as well.

Victoria is giving the impression that it’s because people with COVID (or suspected and under a test) don’t follow the rules. It’s not as if they think there is a huge amount of asymptomatic carriers.

So if that’s the case, then why couldn’t they go to 2sqm or 0sqm?

Post automatically merged: Jun 21, 2020

Well that's a pretty senseless rule then. May as well not have the rule at all.

I think that’s why the UK is also either reviewing it or has already abandoned it.

 

[Gremlin]

Well, W.A. has not had the 4 sqm rule since June 6 - it was reduced to 2 sqm.

WA has this precisely because the borders are closed to areas with community transmission. McGowan made this quite clear and has implied that if he is forced by the High Court to open the borders the 4 sqm rule will have to be reinstated.

We're not talking about what offers the best medical solution anymore. We are now balancing decisions around the trade-off between different medical and economic scenarios.

The Federal CMO and his team have talked about a need to maintain the 4 sqm rule as borders reopen. This is a serious economic impost. Modelling here and overseas shows that to be in the order of 5% to 6% of GDP. In other words, adhering to the medical advice of the Federal CMO and his team would sink Australia into the biggest economic slump that anyone younger than 90 has ever experienced in their life.

If by keeping the borders closed you can remove that restriction, then there is clearly also an economic impost. Primarily on tourism businesses. But the economic modelling shows this to be of less impact than the above scenario - closer to 3% of GDP. An ugly recession, undoubtedly, but far more palatable to far more businesses.

There is a third option where we open the borders and ditch the 4 sqm rule, but keep international borders closed. Impact of closer to 1.5% of GDP. A recession, but a stock standard recession. But in order to achieve this, then we have to press on closer to eradication and take a further economic hit in the next month or two in order to set ourselves up for a lesser economic hit in the long run. Arguably the right time to make this call though with the Federal Govt effectively guaranteeing large slabs of the wage bills of employers until September.

The fourth option is we open up domestic borders, ditch the 4 sqm rule, but be prepared to sawtooth parts of the economy open/shut/open/shut as the virus grows and shrinks. ScoMo has previously said that this would be the worst of the economic outcomes.

We have to choose one. There is no option that sets every business back on a path to success nor grows the economy in the short to medium term. There's no good arguing that certain businesses are in jeopardy because there are businesses in jeopardy no matter what scenario they run with. The question is just the magnitude of the damage that will be done and to which sectors of the economy.

 

[oz_mark]

We have to choose one. There is no option that sets every business back on a path to success nor grows the economy in the short to medium term. There's no good arguing that certain businesses are in jeopardy because there are businesses in jeopardy no matter what scenario they run with. The question is just the magnitude of the damage that will be done and to which sectors of the economy.

I don't disagree with the need to balance things, and there are different ways of doing it, but all the states should pick the same option!

 

[Gremlin]

I don't disagree with the need to balance things, and there are different ways of doing it, but all the states should pick the same option!

Genuine question. Why?

Eg, if I'm McGowan in WA and I've looked at the different options and the one I've chosen gives WA the best chance of economic recovery, why should I voluntarily conform to something that meets the needs of the Eastern states, but leave WA worse off? Wouldn't that be the fastest way to get yourself voted out of office?