CaptJCool
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Sums, germs, and fear - Policy Forum
Quentin Grafton and Tom Kompas use data on COVID-19 to explain what Australia might expect over the next couple of weeks, the costs and benefits of early Quentin Grafton and Tom Kompas use data on COVID-19 to explain what Australia might expect over the next couple of weeks and why Australia...www.policyforum.net
Looks like the forecast is high-balled.
They forecast 5220
Flattening the curve to help Australia’s hospitals prepare
University of Melbourne mathematical modelling helps us understand whether Australia is flattening the COVID-19 curve and whether our hospitals are prepared.pursuit.unimelb.edu.au
forecast was 5220 (range 5080-5970) at 6pm 1 April
Final ACTUAL figure = 4,865
The Census fail tells us Australians pay attention !
So it would appear we have here too