General Coronavirus chit chat thread - non-travel specific

[p--and--t]

Having spent a a year or two in past life decades ago a position that was based on analysing stats, take everything you read with a grain of salt.

Basically we are seeing a combination of what someone wants you to see (e.g. China) and here's what we know - but we don't know what we don't know (most other places).

As with the annual flu, and many other myriad stats we are presented with on a daily basis, they are the result of collection of subjective data via imperfect processes being followed (and not followed) by imperfect people interpreting what they think you may had intended to be counted and are only a percentage of the actual data that would give certainty along with people feeling incentified to slant the results one way or the other by their personal circumstance.

Testing of less than .01% of a limited pre-selected biased sub-sample of the population IMHO cannot reveal any stats with any certainty.

It is indicative when the figures quoted are "confirmed cases" - i.e. what about all the unconfirmed cases. Think icebergs.

 

[Flying mermaid]

The exemption is if you are sending to a relative for their personal use, and not by POST. I assume then one can send to a family member by courier - like FEDEX?

We posted some masks to Dr FM in London today. The hospital she is working at only allows you to use their masks if you are treating someone with obvious symptoms, but you can bring in your own masks. We had a few left from the bushfire/smoke issues in Dec/Jan (doesn’t that seem a long time ago).

Australia Post told Mr FM that all parcels were being X-rayed, but a small quantity being sent to someone with the same surname would get through. We will see - hope they do as she s pretty keen to get them. Fortunately I did send her with a few when she left in early March - wish I had just given them all to her!

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Having spent a a year or two in past life decades ago a position that was based on analysing stats, take everything you read with a grain of salt.

When I started my professional career almost forty years ago and was doing some computer modelling I was advised "Garbage in , garbage out".

Just because a program churns out a result, or a set of numbers, it does not mean that it is valid. Stats in particular are often misapplied.

Data sites like Coronavirus Update (Live): 1,016,278 Cases and 53,236 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer are interesting, but using them to compare regions or countries is fraught with danger. What is a case varies widely.

Even something like deaths is not comparable as some countries were/are only counting deaths in hospitals. France just went up almost a thousand depths as they have now included deaths in nursing home.

The overwhelmed paramedics are reporting significant deaths from cardiac arrest when they arrive on a call out. The relatives indicating that the person had CV19 like symptoms. Are they in the NYC CV19 stats as a CV19 death? The paramedic did not know.

 

[Flying mermaid]

Not quite true, high schools and universities are closed, people are encouraged to work from home, old people are encouraged to self isolate. Social distancing is strongly encouraged. You cant stand at bars but you can still go to a restaurant.

The difference is, of course, that the Swedish are used to regulation and social mores, i.e. when they are told they need to practice social distancing and not to congregate in groups they are adult enough to do it. Regulation not required.

Sweden has a population of 10 million vs our 25 million. They already have 308 deaths vs our 28. I know which system (as an elderly person), I prefer.

 

[RooFlyer]

Sweden has a population of 10 million vs our 25 million. They already have 308 deaths vs our 28. I know which system (as an elderly person), I prefer.

I hadn’t appreciated those comparative numbers, thanks. A long way to go, but I also know where I’d rather be.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Sweden has a population of 10 million vs our 25 million. They already have 308 deaths vs our 28. I know which system (as an elderly person), I prefer.

Well no pickled herrings for you then

 

[drron]

And economically it hasn't done much for Sweden.

Swedish hotel and restaurant bankruptcies soar as pandemic hits

STOCKHOLM (Reuters) - Record numbers of hotels and restaurants went bankrupt in March in Sweden as customers stayed at home to avoid spreading the coronavirus, figures from credit information firm UC showed on Wednesday. Bankruptcies in the restaurant and hotel sector shot up 123% in March...

whbl.com

South Korean hotel chain goes under.

Midsized hotelier HTC goes under, more in Korea could follow suit - Pulse by Maeil Business News Korea

Hospitality & Tourism Company (HTC) running more than 30 hotel, resort and other hospitality locations across South Korea became the first major in the industry to go down under the assault of the coronavirus. HTC, a midsi

pulsenews.co.kr

Naturally hotel occupancy in LOTFAP has dropped dramatically.
NYC-15.2%
Oahu-10.5%
New Orleans-12.7%

 

[amaroo]

Only time will tell - you are a bit early to claim that. let's give it a few weeks....

I'm calling it - that statement is wrong.

 

[amaroo]

Wasn't meant to be nasty, it just seemed a bit odd to be so fixated on paper prescriptions

Ahhh, the joys of banter over the internet. Difficult to lose context of tone when it's just text.

Actually, it was you that was fixated on scripts. Remember, I started the conversation with a simple post unrelated to you or any of your posts ..... it takes two to tango. And, I wasn't looking for a dance

 

[amaroo]

I am in little doubt that China is manipulating their press as they have long done so, and that their numbers are not accurate.

However that seems to be quite a massive jump and there are a lot of people who are in direct communication with people living in China. ie Cruiser Elite, my daughters boyfriend who has a friend in Wuhan, etc and they from I have read to date do not seem to be echoing that type of massive toll.

Ask yourself - why have they deported journalist, locked up doctors, just took people away. What else do you need to see and read?

 

[amaroo]

Well both the PM and the ABC are wrong.Elsewhere I have posted the link to Wikipedia on Covid testing.Iceland has tested more than 57000 per million population as of the beginning of April.several other countries well above Australia's numbers.
As for States the Veneto region of Italy is up over 24000 tests per million.

Found it.

COVID-19 testing - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Really Wiki trumps everything - really....

Post automatically merged: Apr 3, 2020

Not quite true, high schools and universities are closed, people are encouraged to work from home, old people are encouraged to self isolate. Social distancing is strongly encouraged. You cant stand at bars but you can still go to a restaurant.

The difference is, of course, that the Swedish are used to regulation and social mores, i.e. when they are told they need to practice social distancing and not to congregate in groups they are adult enough to do it. Regulation not required.

Does that include saunas and other close contact sports

 

[juddles]

I'm calling it - that statement is wrong.

Sorry - which exact statement are you calling as wrong?

 

[amaroo]

Sorry - which exact statement are you calling as wrong?

Hi Juds - since you ask, all of them

 

[juddles]

Hi Juds - since you ask, all of them

I wish my wine was as powerful as yours...

 

[amaroo]

I wish my wine was as powerful as yours...

If only you could be that lucky....

 

[juddles]

Am starting to think that our PM is actually doing a great job. He seems to me to be really rising to the unbelievable challenge he has been dealt...

 

[amaroo]

Just remember, not every business is suffering, one of our businesses is hiring new people everyday. Forecast looks extremely positive for even more people, we're working hard to employ as many as we can.

 

[TheRealTMA]

Am starting to think that our PM is actually doing a great job. He seems to me to be really rising to the unbelievable challenge he has been dealt...

Not a supporter but impressed that for the first time he and the LNP (not all) do seem to be following medical, scientific and treasury advice rather than from the IPA and Hillsong. I do think that in general, after a number of false starts and some politics, that it does seem he’s doing the best he can. Pleased that the insane debt and surplus mantra has gone out the window (Barnaby is the only one I’ve seen whinging) and they are taking advice and doing what is necessary.

Still not a supporter but it is a difficult job for anyone at this time.

 

[McLarin]

This is after all just a virus. Well over 10 times more people died of Influenza last year and in recent years, than have died so far from Covid, and no planes were grounded. Yes many more will pass - most elderly, and even if it gets to a milion dead it is only slightly worse that the 650,000 flu fatalities each and every recent year.

I can tell you now that this is more than "just a virus". As a human race we have no immunity to the virus and its "slippery" nature is making it difficult to contain. This virus literally clogs your lungs, suffocating you to death. If you are after proof, ask me, I'm on the frontline.

International travel is going to be severely affected until an adequate preventative measure is developed.

 

[hydrabyss]

This is after all just a virus. Well over 10 times more people died of Influenza last year and in recent years, than have died so far from Covid, and no planes were grounded. Yes many more will pass - most elderly, and even if it gets to a milion dead it is only slightly worse that the 650,000 flu fatalities each and every recent year.

Twice as many Americans died of the Flu last year than all guns deaths combined. (30K to 60K roughly) President Trump was incredulous recenty that ANYONE still died of Influenza despite that sobering stat. Gobsmacking.

It will pass and weaken thank goodness, and life and flights will then chug along until the next nasty bug appears.

A few months ago I thought a similar way until you realise influenza is already spread throughout the world.

If covid-19 is spread throughout the world what would be the death rate. Influenza is about 0.1% and you say 650 000 deaths. So what is the death rate for covid-19.