General Coronavirus chit chat thread - non-travel specific

[lovetravellingoz]

Deaths in the USA likely much higher. New York has only been counting confirmed cases

After Deaths At Home Spike In NYC, Officials Plan To Count Many As COVID-19

Officials say a sudden upsurge in deaths at home is likely due to COVID-19 and they are planning to add many of them to New York's death toll, even without confirmation by a laboratory.

www.npr.org

And not just in New York. In many of the counts the deaths are deaths in Hospitals. This was I believe the case in China too.

Spain’s secret Covid-19 death toll as thousands die undiagnosed

Spain’s Health Ministry put casualties from Covid-19 at 11,744

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[lovetravellingoz]

New Zealand numbers.

Interesting - more than QLD, although QLD has a larger population and has conducted ~ 20,000 more tests. Makes you wonder if NZ's total shut down is worth it.

COVID-19

About the Ministry of Health’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic and our long-term management strategy.

www.health.govt.nz

Case Rates is a very rubbery figure though and very difficult to compare between countries or even regions.

The hospitalisation rate and death rate, which are both more precise measures, are both very low in New Zealand.

 

[amaroo]

Case Rates is a very rubbery figure though and very difficult to compare between countries or even regions.

The hospitalisation rate and death rate which are both more precise measures are both very low in New Zealand.

Take out the deaths caused by the cruise industry - QLD would probably be the same or lower.

Looking at the numbers - NZ has gone the full monty, for bugger all, or zero benefit.

 

[get me outta here]

This ex Bush speech writer does not seem to have any regard for Trump’s handling of the virus:

This Is Trump’s Fault

The president is failing, and Americans are paying for his failures.

www.theatlantic.com

 

[Pushka]

Which likely means there is a delicate balance between getting it right (Maybe Aus) versus going too full on into restrictions (NZ) versus doing not much at all (USA, Italy).

 

[amaroo]

Not sure this sends the message - we're all in this together? What about families that wanted an extra 2 or 3 people attend their love one's service - terrible decision.

Eighty mourners allowed at Queensland funeral after coronavirus exemption granted

A funeral for a "very significant" Indigenous elder reaches capacity as the Queensland Government waives a 10-person rule but enforces strict safety measures, a decision which leaves the local mayor gobsmacked.

www.abc.net.au

 

[scaredeycat]

When this crisis has stabilised - I don't think it will ever go away, unfortunately- I think the interesting stat will be all cause mortality when compared with previous years.

 

[get me outta here]

There’s been 1 death in New Zealand.

Take out the deaths caused by the cruise industry - QLD would probably be the same or lower.

Looking at the numbers - NZ has gone the full monty, for bugger all, or zero benefit.

 

[amaroo]

There’s been 1 death in New Zealand.

That's the point - QLD has had only 5, and IIRC almost all have been related to the cruise industry. My posts on this topic directly compares NZ > QLD.... not Australia.

 

[RooFlyer]

When this crisis has stabilised - I don't think it will ever go away, unfortunately- I think the interesting stat will be all cause mortality when compared with previous years.

Yes, that's a figure i'm interested in too. I did see a graph a week or so ago which showed (I think) total mortality up to the start of April and it was trending much lower than previous years. Can't find it now.

 

[andye]

Yes, that's a figure i'm interested in too. I did see a graph a week or so ago which showed (I think) total mortality up to the start of April and it was trending much lower than previous years. Can't find it now.

It's something with a lot of moving parts

Some data from Scotland showing an excess of deaths but only about half due to Corona. People may not be seeking attention for heart attack and stroke symptoms for instance.

Currently numbers in my hospitals are low. Some of this might be due to fewer people falling over and reduced non-CoViD respiratory contagion but it's difficult to believe that other illnesses have evaporated.

Surgery is an interesting aspect. Some is life-saving but much is life-improving (e.g hip replacement). Inevitably some people will have complications, so if there is less going on, there may be fewer people in hospital.

I suspect Italy and Spain will have a high absolute mortality this year but lower than usual in the next couple as many who succumb are toward the end of their life.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Take out the deaths caused by the cruise industry - QLD would probably be the same or lower.

Looking at the numbers - NZ has gone the full monty, for bugger all, or zero benefit.

My point was more on the stats.

However I do believe, and perhaps agree with you(?), that the Australian approach to date after a few initial stumbles has been an excellent one and a very good balance of both the health and economic threats.

I do disagree strongly with your point to the other night that we should now deliberately start exposing people to CV 19.

Social (Physical) Distancing, Quarantining, Handwashing etc have all combined to achieve a result way better that any in government, or their health advisers, would have hoped for. Australians in the main have been so good at embracing social distancing and doing it in the spirit of Stay at Home, rather than seeking to exploit loopholes, that we are probably achieving almost the same result despite the in theory more harsh NZ restrictions.

It now sets up us to go the eradication path that New Zealand is striving to achieve, but with a lot less economic pain.

Our new daily cases today was only 85. The first sub-100 day since March 17. With our current trend in this I would currently see no reason why within Australia that by the end of April that our new cases will be so low (ignoring any new arrivals who go into quarantine) that we cannot start to re-activate our close businesses in a stage manner. thing back on at once .ie Do not turn every Keeping appropriate health measure though, and still encouraging work at home practices.

Many leisure pastimes will also again become possible. But again stage their re-introduction.

Leisure international travel to remain no no till a vaccine is developed. And most if not all business travel too. I personally would not be willing to sacrifice the lives and permanent lung damage that re-introducing international travel would result in if done pre-vaccine.

There may be some rare exemptions on compassionate grounds, but quarantine on return.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Yes, that's a figure i'm interested in too. I did see a graph a week or so ago which showed (I think) total mortality up to the start of April and it was trending much lower than previous years. Can't find it now.

Well deaths from flu should be substantially less. Though looking at the USA Flu Season which we often echo their flu season was a mild one. But whatever it would have been most of the CV 19 measures are also excellent for the flu and the common cold. Plus other things like gastro.

Balancing that though is who know whether the suicide rate will be up or down due to CV 19. Many failed businesses could cause a spike in such deaths.

 

[Flashback]

Well deaths from flu should be substantially less. Though looking at the USA Flu Season which we often echo their flu season was a mild one. But whatever it would have been most of the CV 19 measures are also excellent for the flu and the common cold. Plus other things like gastro.

Balancing that though is who know whether the suicide rate will be up or down due to CV 19. Many failed businesses could cause a spike in such deaths.

My view is the rate would be substantially higher this year, the next and probably the year after too.

 

[love_the_life]

Drunk as a skunk and over it. When is this going to end????

 

[esseeeayeenn]

Drunk as a skunk and over it. When is this going to end????

Who said it was going to end?
We may not develop immunity to the virus, which means a vaccine may be impossible and herd immunity unattainable.

 

[love_the_life]

Who said it was going to end?
We may not develop immunity to the virus, which means a vaccine may be impossible and herd immunity unattainable.

Still drunk

 

[amaroo]

My point was more on the stats.

However I do believe, and perhaps agree with you(?), that the Australian approach to date after a few initial stumbles has been an excellent one and a very good balance of both the health and economic threats.

I do disagree strongly with your point to the other night that we should now deliberately start exposing people to CV 19.

Social (Physical) Distancing, Quarantining, Handwashing etc have all combined to achieve a result way better that any in government, or their health advisers, would have hoped for. Australians in the main have been so good at embracing social distancing and doing it in the spirit of Stay at Home, rather than seeking to exploit loopholes, that we are probably achieving almost the same result despite the in theory more harsh NZ restrictions.

It now sets up us to go the eradication path that New Zealand is striving to achieve, but with a lot less economic pain.

Our new daily cases today was only 85. The first sub-100 day since March 17. With our current trend in this I would currently see no reason why within Australia that by the end of April that our new cases will be so low (ignoring any new arrivals who go into quarantine) that we cannot start to re-activate our close businesses in a stage manner. thing back on at once .ie Do not turn every Keeping appropriate health measure though, and still encouraging work at home practices.

Many leisure pastimes will also again become possible. But again stage their re-introduction.

Leisure international travel to remain no no till a vaccine is developed. And most if not all business travel too. I personally would not be willing to sacrifice the lives and permanent lung damage that re-introducing international travel would result in if done pre-vaccine.

There may be some rare exemptions on compassionate grounds, but quarantine on return.

You jumped the fence big time - that shouldn't be allowed. Let's focus on new topics ... BTW I think you're wrong.

 

[amaroo]

Given the attempts to distract from the point.

Take the time to review the New Zealand numbers posted above - they pretty much show a massive overreaction by the NZ government. Best to be informed and form your own views on how your Government is performing.

 

[drron]

Who said it was going to end?
We may not develop immunity to the virus, which means a vaccine may be impossible and herd immunity unattainable.

It is going to end well before that.
Some business people are already saying that lockdown can't last 6 months and still have a successful Aussie economy.

More importantly Lifeline is getting huge increases to it's suicide prevention line and predict it to increase the longer the lockdown continues.

Lifeline records busiest month - TBW News Group

LIFELINE South East is adapting to support the community’s mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic, which has caused unprecedented levels of anxiety and emotional distress in […]

borderwatch.com.au

To put that in perspective the world deaths from suicide around the world until April 1st was >250000
Plus it is the younger age groups that will bear the brunt of this problem.