General COVID-19 Vaccine Discussion

[drron]

Isn't it somewhat hypocritical for Australia to recommend that people under 60 living in Australia should use Pfizer not AZ. So the many tens of thousands of Pacific Islanders living in Australia (many sending money back to their extended families) are being told it is not recommended to use AZ if under 60 but it would be OK for their under 60 yr old family members back home to use it?

The median age for Pacific Islanders still living in the various Pacific Island nations is under 25 yrs old. The proportion aged 60+ is a fraction of that in Australia. A little over one week's production (If AZ is actually producing the contracted 1 million per week) would fully cover that cohort.

To say give them the AZ sounds like a blast from worst Colonial past. India on the other hand has hundreds of millions yet to be vaccinated aged over 60 as does Indonesia, The Philipines etc.

the recommendation in Australia to use Pfizer in Australia was there was not a large difference between the incidence of clots and the then present risk of getting serious covid.There is no recommendation that it should not be used.
The situation in PNG and now Fiji is that there is much more covid so the risk of clots for most ages is now less than the risk of developing serious covid so AZ would not be contra indicated.

In the Sydney outbreak there are now 26 in hospital,6 in ICU and 2 on ventilators.Of those in ICU one in their early 50s and one in their 60s.This would be getting close to AZ now being less dangerous than the chance of serious covid for those ages.

And India have used their own manufactured AZ vaccine in very large numbers and has seen the incidence of new cases drop by 90% in the last month.I think they might be grateful for their Colonial past so they are licenced to manufacture AZ rather than one of the Chinese brands.

 

[oz_mark]

Isn't it somewhat hypocritical for Australia to recommend that people under 60 living in Australia should use Pfizer not AZ. So the many tens of thousands of Pacific Islanders living in Australia (many sending money back to their extended families) are being told it is not recommended to use AZ if under 60 but it would be OK for their under 60 yr old family members back home to use it?

The median age for Pacific Islanders still living in the various Pacific Island nations is under 25 yrs old. The proportion aged 60+ is a fraction of that in Australia. A little over one week's production (If AZ is actually producing the contracted 1 million per week) would fully cover that cohort.

To say give them the AZ sounds like a blast from worst Colonial past. India on the other hand has hundreds of millions yet to be vaccinated aged over 60 as does Indonesia, The Philipines etc.

If Australia had a significant widespread local Covid-19 cases (as PNG does), the risk assessment in Australia would be different.

 

[Lynda2475]

Australia doesn't recommend nor set rules for what vaccines other countries choose to use, especially given covid risk and medial treatment available differs greatly in pacific islands from here.

Australia donated AZ doses to PNG and Fiji because we had excess, they however chose to use them based on their risk assessment. Noting PNG was also offered Sinovac by China.

If Indonesia wants to buy our excess AZ when available because thee Sinovac they bought from China is proving useless they can. Noting they are not seeking to vaccinate their elderly (or children) but their health care workers for whom SinoVac isnt working.

India manufacture AZ (and other vaccines) so they dont need to buy it from Australia, Tehy have actually ceased and/slowed exports to look after their local population first.

It might surprise you to know that not all countries are following the western model of vaccinating those most vulnerable to covid first. Was talking with a colleague this morning who has family in China, where over 65s are largely illegible for a vaccine (unless they are still working or bribe a govt official), as they focus on vaccinating the working age population as a priority. The thinking (and I don't judge whether it is right or wrong) is that if the working age are all protected, they wont transmit to children or the elderly (who are less mobile and interact with fewer people).

 

[jakeseven7]

So based on today's data, you think its right for there to be privileges for either 7.3% fully vaccinated or 17.5% one dose vaccinated. That certainly seems like a fair go for all Australians.

Yup, will drive demand and anticipation as each cohort opens up.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

A question about the vaccine:

Why did some vaccinated (eg aged care residents - presumably with Pfizer) contract COVID (more aacurately have a positive PCR test) and some vaccinated (eg healthcare workers - presumably with Pfizer - that attended the superspreader party) didn't?

 

[Lynda2475]

Why did some vaccinated (eg aged care residents - presumably with Pfizer) contract COVID (more aacurately have a positive PCR test) and some vaccinated (eg healthcare workers - presumably with Pfizer - that attended the superspreader party) didn't?

Because it is likely the workers were younger and have more robust immune systems.

Elderly people do not typically generate as strong an immune response following any vaccination as younger people do. This is why we have to have special flu vax formula for the elderly.

The daughter of the a man at the aged care center who caught covid despite having been fully vaccinated said on the news last night both her parents have multiple serious underlying conditions, so doubtful their immune systems are operating as well as much younger staff.

Mary Louise McCLaws (I'm not a fan) frequently argues that you should concentrate on vaccinating younger cohort earlier than the older ones as the younger ones spread more virus and are better protected by vaccination. After the huge number of aged care covid deaths in Victoria last year, politically any vaccination plan that didn't start with aged care wasn't going to fly even it it made epidemiological sense.

 

[mviy]

The staff may have worn their masks better (if the elderly in the aged care home even wore masks at all - they may have enough trouble breathing as it is) or other PPE as well.

Technically if you touch a mask you should throw it out and put another one on, but so many people including myself reuse the same mask over and over again without cleaning it.

There's also things like cleaning your hands properly that again staff are more likely to do.

I've heard that if you work in a hospital you could be fired for not using PPE properly, so medical people do learn to use it properly.

 

[Lynda2475]

if the elderly in the aged care home even wore masks at all

Aged care residents do no generally wear masks in the centre "their home". Visitors and staff members are required to.

Doubtful the vaccinated workers at the Birthday Party who didn't develop covid were wearing masks whilst eating and drinking at a party, they are just healthier individuals than the aged care residents.

 

[Batterytraveller]

Some interesting news. Moderna entering trial on a flu vaccine using mRNA tech

Moderna enters clinical trials for its mRNA-based flu vaccine

Moderna has injected its mRNA-derived vaccine for the seasonal flu into a human volunteer for the first time as part of a Phase 1/2 clinical study, the company announced on Wednesday.

www.engadget.com

 

[NM]

Some interesting news. Moderna entering trial on a flu vaccine using mRNA tech

Moderna enters clinical trials for its mRNA-based flu vaccine

Moderna has injected its mRNA-derived vaccine for the seasonal flu into a human volunteer for the first time as part of a Phase 1/2 clinical study, the company announced on Wednesday.

www.engadget.com

I wonder if this might possibly lead to a single annual "booster" shot that covers current Flu strains plus Covid-19?

 

[Pushka]

I read just now on news.com.au that PM has suggested people get their second AZ from 8 weeks onwards.

 

[mviy]

I wonder if this might possibly lead to a single annual "booster" shot that covers current Flu strains plus Covid-19?

That would be good. There are advantages and disadvantages of that approach, which obviously would need to be weighed up. Also currently there can be a different flu vaccine recommended based on age, so if a combined "booster" is only suitable for a more limited age range that has implications as well.

I read just now on news.com.au that PM has suggested people get their second AZ from 8 weeks onwards.

Interesting. I'll consider doing that if there's a major outbreak where I live or there's a realistic hope that that will enable me to travel overseas, but otherwise I'll be waiting for the full 12 weeks.

Edit: can't see where you found the mention of the 8 weeks on news.com.au, but I did see it on ABC News website looking at their live text coverage just now. Scott Morrison is urging Australians to get their second AZ shot towards the start of the recommended 8-12 week window rather than at the end of it.

If I did take it after 8 weeks that would put my second dose at the end of August, so if I do that I would have had to have my age group opened up to Pfizer before early August to get fully vaccinated with Pfizer sooner, which is not going to happen with the limited supply.

 

[Pushka]

That would be good. There are advantages and disadvantages of that approach, which obviously would need to be weighed up. Also currently there can be a different flu vaccine recommended based on age, so if a combined "booster" is only suitable for a more limited age range that has implications as well.

Interesting. I'll consider doing that if there's a major outbreak where I live or there's a realistic hope that that will enable me to travel overseas, but otherwise I'll be waiting for the full 12 weeks.

Edit: can't see where you found the mention of the 8 weeks on news.com.au, but I did see it on ABC News website looking at their live text coverage just now. Scott Morrison is urging Australians to get their second AZ shot towards the start of the recommended 8-12 week window rather than at the end of it.

If I did take it after 8 weeks that would put my second dose at the end of August, so if I do that I would have had to have my age group opened up to Pfizer before early August to get fully vaccinated with Pfizer sooner, which is not going to happen with the limited supply.

Yeah sorry it’s Adelaidenow.com.au


“Mr Morrison said he wants people to get it closer to the eight-week mark.”

 

[mviy]

You can see the comment at about 11:15 into this video

In context the recommendation for 8 weeks is primarily for vulnerable people in the 3 LGAs most affected by the Sydney outbreak.

This is consistent with what's been happening overseas. Where there is a bad outbreak of the virus the benefits of getting fully vaccinated sooner may outweigh the disadvantage of reducing the efficacy a little by taking the dose a little sooner than the optimal time.

 

[serfty]

In context the recommendation for 8 weeks is primarily for vulnerable people in the 3 LGAs most affected by the Sydney outbreak.

Thanks for the context.

It means I consider my 12 week AZ 2nd injection booking is still go for the first week of August.

 

[mviy]

If you are at all concerned I would recommend speaking with your GP for advice as to whether to bring your second jab forward, but I would personally not be rushing out to bring forward a second vaccination dose if not in a major COVID hotspot area and also not able and intending to travel to a hotspot or overseas imminently. If MEL does have another outbreak there should be sufficient supply of AZ one would think to bring forward a decision to have a second dose early at that time. My local GP had about 1200 doses in the fridge when I had my first dose on Monday.

The second dose could take a few weeks I guess to have its full effect, so the drawback of the wait and see approach is that by the time you are in a hotspot you may not get the 2nd jab early enough prior to exposure. It's a risk we all need to weigh up.

 

[Lynda2475]

And of course MLM has already weighed in:

From BAC:

Moving towards an eight-week gap between AZ doses 'a good idea': Professor McLaws​

"The idea of moving a second dose forward will be a good idea, but we may have to have a booster shot after that. Because if we start moving away from that 12 weeks, your antibody response may not be as good as it could be.

"But given that we are in dire straits at the moment with Delta, we do not want it to go across any state borders, we do not want it to go to the elderly, it is a good idea."

"The first dose of AstraZeneca, against Delta, we are only protected at about 33 per cent compared to what you were protected previously. That is the same with Pfizer.

"Once you get a second dose, your protection goes up to about 60 per cent, which is not as good as it was before Delta started circulating, but still, it is very good. It is better than nothing, and it is better than 33 per cent.

"So please go get a second dose, as the Prime Minister suggested, it is a great idea. Later on, the states will tell you when you need to have that third booster, because we will all need to get that third booster."

Of course we aren't actually in dire straights, health systems are coping and cases numbers arent rapidly growing (like last winter), they are relatively steady

 

[mviy]

The transcript is now available: Press Conference - Kirribilli, NSW | Prime Minister of Australia

"In that area, I note from the most recent figures we have in the three local government areas most particularly affected, you have first dose vaccination rates of, for over 70s, of between 48 and 51 per cent. And, so we would also be encouraging the eight to 12-week second dose to be done at the earlier part of that eight to 12-week period. That is consistent with medical advice - the TGA approval does sit, and ATAGI advice, on eight to 12 weeks. And, given the risks to people of the outbreak in that area, we believe it's important that they get that second dose of AstraZeneca as soon as possible. That is the community that is most at risk in these circumstances."

 

[sinophile888]

A family member (37) living in Colorado has just been diagnosed with "Long Covid". He is a medical scientist and can now only work part-time as he has brain fog and poor short term memory, He's booked in for an MRI soon to determine if he has had any permanent brain damage. Hopefully not as he has a wife and young family. We thought from the start that he should go back to Melbourne asap. But he had a great job, an American wife and they live in a very small country town. They isolated from everyone except his wife's parents who live nearby, but the grandparents contracted Covid.

 

[ethernet]

And of course MLM has already weighed in:

From BAC:

Moving towards an eight-week gap between AZ doses 'a good idea': Professor McLaws​

"The idea of moving a second dose forward will be a good idea, but we may have to have a booster shot after that. Because if we start moving away from that 12 weeks, your antibody response may not be as good as it could be.

"But given that we are in dire straits at the moment with Delta, we do not want it to go across any state borders, we do not want it to go to the elderly, it is a good idea."

"The first dose of AstraZeneca, against Delta, we are only protected at about 33 per cent compared to what you were protected previously. That is the same with Pfizer.

"Once you get a second dose, your protection goes up to about 60 per cent, which is not as good as it was before Delta started circulating, but still, it is very good. It is better than nothing, and it is better than 33 per cent.

"So please go get a second dose, as the Prime Minister suggested, it is a great idea. Later on, the states will tell you when you need to have that third booster, because we will all need to get that third booster."

Of course we aren't actually in dire straights, health systems are coping and cases numbers arent rapidly growing (like last winter), they are relatively steady

These numbers appear LOW for AZ, is there a source? I beat the PM in predicting the need to move AZ stocks out of the fridge. I did not know about the October phaseout. At least the decision is easy for those in LGA redspots, and suggest they will grow AZ demand on the assumption that children will be new cases. I will stick to 12 weeks for my AZ booster, and take VitD and zinc, unless where I live goes at least orange. I believe supplements improve vaccine response. Differential analysis is the answer. People in WA have a different risk profile.

And whatever happened to covid sniffing dogs, or random rapid strip covid testing for those in hotspots? Or a mercy flight for London based aussies needing to get home before UK opens up.

Now what is the reward for early AZ compliance? First dibs on the best booster? Nope, because 1A and B will be the winners again. I am OK with that as we do not need another pax driver incident costing >1 Billion per week. Yet nobody playing with mercaptin in the hotels that leaked. Root cause analysis is unwanted.

It seems to me MLM is hinting Aussie borders will be closed unless you get a 3rd dose. This is in stark contrast to USA and the rest of OECD.