General COVID-19 Vaccine Discussion

[jakeseven7]

I have a GP but they aren’t doing the vaccination and they are not alone so…..

An extra 1300 practices coming online in next 3.5 weeks with AZ / Pfizer so that will help.

 

[drron]

These figures that keep getting waved around have no mathematical validity in the way they are portrayed. AKA misleading.

A more valid comparison, but would not do faith in the medical profession much good, would be to compare it with the risks of medical mistakes. Such as probability of dying from an illness/infection/mistake made while in hospital that you did not enter hospital with aka a medical error.

The risks for AZ is the risk from receiving ONE injection not one injection 2 or 3 times a day for 260 to 365 days in a row which is what the risk figure for car accidents represents.

Think of it this way - were there over 1,000 deaths in car accidents reported on any day for Australia in your lifetime ?
25.5m x 2 journeys x 28 deaths per million population > 1,000 deaths a day.

Every other risk is on a 365 day basis not a one-off event. For car accidents that may well be a 2 or 3 times per day coughulative risk. For a taxi driver it is more like a 10,000x risk.

So, simplistically think of someone who drives to/from the railway station 52 weeks/year. Goes out after work using the car 1 night during the week, makes 1 shopping trip, 1 social trip per weekend, = 832 separate journeys.

Risk of dying in a car accident from one trip = 28/832 = 0.03

Risk of dying a single car outing for them using the 'community-wide' figure per annum is nearly 1 / 20th the risk of dying from AZ due to clots.

So AZ is nearly 20 times as risky. How many people do you know who have had a car accident despite it being nearly 1/20th the risk from CV?

Equally invalid, but put that question to prove the point. People you know have driven for perhaps decades, and you know X people, cannot validly compare different frequencies of events without adjusting for the frequency.

The risk of being hit by lightening on one outing is similarly much less risk that that of AZ clots. As could get hit by lightening on any outing made over a year. Say to/from work etc. = 0.4 / 730 = 0.0005 vs 0.5 from AZ clots, or 1,000 times the risk of being hit by lightening on an outing.

Where do you get a risk of dying from an AZ clot of 0.5.It is definitely not that high.About 1 in 2 million on Australian figures.Much the same as the risk of a lightening strike.

I also know several people who have died in a car accident including a neighbour of ours.

But then i have reduced my chances of being hit by lightening even playing golf in a thunderstorm as instead of a driver I use a one iron.And as Lee Trevino knew not even God can hit a one iron.

 

[Port Power]

Where do you get a risk of dying from an AZ clot of 0.5.It is definitely not that high.About 1 in 2 million on Australian figures.Much the same as the risk of a lightening strike.

But then i have reduced my chances of being hit by lightening even playing golf in a thunderstorm as instead of a driver I use a one iron.And as Lee Trevino knew not even God can hit a one iron.

Sorry, but I just can’t bite my tongue. Correct spelling please, or be hit by lightning!

 

[trevella]

Where do you get a risk of dying from an AZ clot of 0.5.It is definitely not that high.About 1 in 2 million on Australian figures.

Or 0.5 in 1 million.

Apparently being careful to state units was too much to ask for in a RAMsplain about how none of us understand risk.

 

[RooFlyer]

I have a GP but they aren’t doing the vaccination and they are not alone so…..

My GP clinic isn't doing the vaccinations either, so .... I just called another one and now have had my 2 injections.

 

[ethernet]

If state run mass vax clinincs has been put in place from day one, and in decent numbers, wouldnt need GPs at all in metro. The planners assumed that people have a GP they see regulalry, but many under 50s do not.

Correct. Dr turnover is high. There should be roving AZ shots at Covid test centres, given some have >4 hour wait times. Heck, it was NSW that had to lobby and get permission for mass vax centers even though global evidence said this was a MUST DO. Only now will NSW open one in Central, and I hope they do walk-bys no appointment necessary.

 

[RAM]

Total fruitcakery. These repeated attempts at "debunking" are just so tiresome.

My interaction with AZ is now over, it was a two-shot one-off. I'll keep on driving day in day out throughout this year and beyond. Over any meaningful period of time it's the car that's much more likely to kill me whether on riskier Tokyo roads or in Australia (especially if I get hit by one of the millions of infant commuters included in your "analysis"). And the AZ will afford me benefits that are impossible to accurately quantify. Because nobody knows what lies ahead, there is no precedent that lends itself to valid extrapolations, and nobody is working with full information.

People who believe they can accurately compare risks at such low orders of magnitude are kidding themselves. Which is fine, it's just annoying and potentially harmful when they do it so loudly and relentlessly.

So you agree. Comparing a one-off event to one that is repeated 100s of times a year is inappropriate.

The most glaring being the motor vehicle fatality rate or is it all a conspiracy & the media are hiding over 1,400 deaths a day?

If state run mass vax clinincs has been put in place from day one, and in decent numbers, wouldnt need GPs at all in metro. The planners assumed that people have a GP they see regulalry, but many under 50s do not.

Wouldn't that data be available almost instantly thanks to Medicare & the Fed Govt's big data?

Very simple to see proportion of total medicare numbers on issue used each year, by age etc. That would require a definition of 'regular' to be made unfortunately.

Where do you get a risk of dying from an AZ clot of 0.5.It is definitely not that high.About 1 in 2 million on Australian figures.Much the same as the risk of a lightening strike.

I also know several people who have died in a car accident including a neighbour of ours.

But then i have reduced my chances of being hit by lightening even playing golf in a thunderstorm as instead of a driver I use a one iron.And as Lee Trevino knew not even God can hit a one iron.

From the graph originally posted, that I responded to, showed 'fatalities per million'.

So 1 per 2 million = 0.5 per million.

The risk of dying from going outside once and being killed by a lightening strike is many decimal places lower probability. The figure in the graph is the risk from going outside repeatedly over a full year.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I still don’t understand why GPs are being pushed to the forefront in this. Many people don’t even have a GP.

Well a few points:
1/ As GPs vaccinate people every year with a variety of vaccines - So they already have the expertise to do it, and often they already have the facility to do it in. So a very quick way to scale up volume vaccination was to use this existing vaccination channel.
2/ . Many people don’t even have a GP. = You don't need to. The biggest furphy of the vaccination program is people have to a vaccination at "their" GP. They don't. One can use any GP who is doing Covid vaccinations. (ie With my travel vaccinations I don't use my GP, I use a GP that specialises in Travel Vaccinations)
3/ There are many GP Respiratory Clinics = Hardly anyone who gets vaccinated at these (including myself) will have had that GP Practice as "their" GP. This channel was just an excellent way to get more people vaccinated more quickly.
4/ Young people yes often do not have a regular GP, but that is often because they are fit and healthy and do not really require one. If a person under 5o needs to say discuss whether they should get AZ or not, then they can do so by booking in to see a GP. It does not have to be "their GP".
5/ Those that do have ongoing health issues will by necessity have a regular GP. But they don't have to get vaccinated by them.
6/ If a person has particular complicated medical issues, then those people will most likely have a regular GP and it would make sense that they discuss vaccination issues for them with their own GP. But once again that GP does not have to be the practice or RC Clinic that you get vaccination at. You may well also get it done at a State Hub or pharmac_. The decision on what vaccine one get may be complicated for some, but the actual vaccination itself remains a very simple procedure.

ure.
Also fast forward to say mid- 2022 (or even earlier) and beyond when we are most likely get our annual Covid Booster vaccination, in similar way that we get our annual Flu Vaccinations. some of the current main vaccination hubs are using Exhibition Buildings and Showgrounds and once life is more normal they will need to go back to their pre-pandemic uses. At that time most people will most likely be getting their Covid boosters from GP's or Pharmacies. The State Hubs in the main will have served their purpose and most will be a thing of the past as you will not need a network of dedicated Covid Vaccination facilities when it makes more sense to use facilities that also do flu vaccinations.

If we assume in that the first 12 months that everyone who gets vaccinated gets two doses, but after that it is a one dose booster per year, then the the number of vaccinations will be half (ignoring population growth and other variables). Caveat: The booster schedule is still unknown.


PS: Right now, multiple channels including state hubs make the most sense, and especially in the last quarter when weekly vaccination rate will be high and using State Hubs, GP RC, GPs and Pharmacies will all be part of the rollout.

 

[jb747]

That’s all well and good, but it still has the actual effect of slowing things down relative to mass hubs. Nobody said GPs were short of expertise, but their use as the primary distribution channel complicates the distribution. And for many the issue isn’t seeing their GP…it’s the need to see any GP at all.

 

[drron]

So you agree. Comparing a one-off event to one that is repeated 100s of times a year is inappropriate.

The most glaring being the motor vehicle fatality rate or is it all a conspiracy & the media are hiding over 1,400 deaths a day?


Wouldn't that data be available almost instantly thanks to Medicare & the Fed Govt's big data?

Very simple to see proportion of total medicare numbers on issue used each year, by age etc. That would require a definition of 'regular' to be made unfortunately.


From the graph originally posted, that I responded to, showed 'fatalities per million'.

So 1 per 2 million = 0.5 per million.

The risk of dying from going outside once and being killed by a lightening strike is many decimal places lower probability. The figure in the graph is the risk from going outside repeatedly over a full year.

Though a lightning strike is far more deadly than a vaccine if you use the same methodology.I guarantee you have much more than 1 death per million lightning strikes.
And of course you are just counting the effect of a person that lightning strikes.Lightning has many other ways of killing you.for example starting fires.
So your example is as misleading as comparing to car accidents.

 

[Lynda2475]

Vic were complaining over the weekend about how how adding GPs to the Pfizer program this week has resulted in a reduction of supply of pfizer to state hubs who were already calling for more.

Given that those eligible for Pfizer are all working age the hub model continues to make much more sense, especially while supply remains so constrained.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

That’s all well and good, but it still has the actual effect of slowing things down relative to mass hubs. Nobody said GPs were short of expertise, but their use as the primary distribution channel complicates the distribution. And for many the issue isn’t seeing their GP…it’s the need to see any GP at all.

You only need to to see a GP if under 50 and are ok to have AZ.

If not under 50 then at GP channel you just book in get jabbed and do not see a GP..just a nurse.

Same as with eligible pharmacies now.

We are swimming in A Z....so supply is above demand.

So I cannot see how GP channel has slowed it down. It has sped things up.

Now if they removed the need for under 50s to see a GP that would speed up vaccinations thru all channels.

The AZ requirement for a GP consult if under 50 is a handbrake imposed on the GP channel, and not the channel itself.

A GP respiratory clinic is not really any different to a state run hub. Both are just venues with multiple nurses giving vaccinations.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Personally I am pro multi-channel as the combination in my opinion means that more people per week can and do get vaccinated.

 

[Lynda2475]

A GP respiratory clinic is not really any different to a state run hub. Both are just venues with multiple nurses giving vaccinations.

The scale is very different, GPRCs do in a day what state hubs do in an hour, but yes GPRCs leave GP practices for dead.

However whilst ever supply is constrained Pfizer should always be prioritized for hubs where they can get doses to more people in a shorter period of time.

 

[drron]

However I doubt that the vaccinators in a GP's practice do less vaccinations per hour than those in a State run clinic.In fact they probably do more as most require you to do the paperwork online before you attend.
I have worked in both public and private hospitals.Now the medicine practiced is little different in both systems and indeed in general more complicated work is done more commonly in the public system but when it comes to efficiency the private system wins hands down.

 

[Lynda2475]

However I doubt that the vaccinators in a GP's practice do less vaccinations per hour than those in a State run clinic

You cant be serious?

The state facilities are large hubs, Olympic Park is doing hundreds of doses per hour (it delivered 49,348 doses last week), there is absolutely no way any individual GP practice of 1 or 2 nurses is doing anywhere near that many doses per hour (or even in a whole day).

There is no paperwork to fill out at the state hubs, its all done online when you book. Whereas when my parents went to a GP (not their own) they had to fill in actual paperwork which was then scanned in, positively archaic.

I agree private hospital system is better than public, because you get what you pay for. But this is a vaccination program and scale is everything.

 

[TheRealTMA]

Very silly "fruitcakery" from Murdock press today. Badly sourced and badly researched appalling rubbish for a newspaper, but it's what we've come to be expect unfortunately.

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"Epidemiologist", who's not and in fact a "psychiatrist". Seems a case of doctor heal thyself.

 

[drron]

You cant be serious?

The state facilities are large hubs, Olympic Park is doing hundreds of doses per hour (it delivered 49,348 doses last week), there is absolutely no way any individual GP practice of 1 or 2 nurses is doing anywhere near that many doses per hour (or even in a whole day).

There is no paperwork to fill out at the state hubs, its all done online when you book. Whereas when my parents went to a GP (not their own) they had to fill in actual paperwork which was then scanned in, positively archaic.

I agree private hospital system is better than public, because you get what you pay for. But this is a vaccination program and scale is everything.

You had better reread my post.I said shots per vaccinator.And I am serious.
At a public hospital when I do an outpatients session I am virtually always limited to 3 - 5 patients per morning or afternoon session.I can easily double that number as most are follow up patients.Usually a limit of 1 new patient per session.

 

[Pushka]

Very silly "fruitcakery" from Murdock press today. Badly sourced and badly researched appalling rubbish for a newspaper, but it's what we've come to be expect unfortunately.

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"Epidemiologist", who's not and in fact a "psychiatrist". Seems a case of doctor heal thyself.

Paywall. PS - it is possible to be both.

 

[TheRealTMA]

Paywall. PS - it is possible to be both.

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Opinion: The problem with AstraZeneca is not clotting, but effectiveness​

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