General Discussion/Q&A on Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Status
Not open for further replies.
Primary source material.
Imperial College (UK) Report "Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand "

"The global impact of COVID-19 has been profound, and the public health threat it represents is the most serious seen in a respiratory virus since the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Here we present the results of epidemiological modelling which has informed policymaking in the UK and other countries in recent weeks.

In the absence of a COVID-19 vaccine, we assess the potential role of a number of public health measures – so-called non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) – aimed at reducing contact rates in the population and thereby reducing transmission of the virus. In the results presented here, we apply a previously published microsimulation model to two countries: the UK (Great Britain specifically) and the US.

We conclude that the effectiveness of any one intervention in isolation is likely to be limited, requiring multiple interventions to be combined to have a substantial impact on transmission.

Two fundamental strategies are possible:
(a) mitigation, which focuses on slowing but not necessarily stopping epidemic spread – reducing peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk of severe disease from infection, and
(b) suppression, which aims to reverse epidemic growth, reducing case numbers to low levels and maintaining that situation indefinitely.

Each policy has major challenges. We find that that optimal mitigation policies (combining home isolation of suspect cases, home quarantine of those living in the same household as suspect cases, and social distancing of the elderly and others at most risk of severe disease) might reduce peak healthcare demand by 2/3 and deaths by half. However, the resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many times over. For countries able to achieve it, this leaves suppression as the preferred policy option.

We show that in the UK and US context, suppression will minimally require a combination of social distancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their family members. This may need to be supplemented by school and university closures, though it should be recognised that such closures may have negative impacts on health systems due to increased absenteeism. The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package – or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission – will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) – given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed. We show that intermittent social distancing – triggered by trends in disease surveillance – may allow interventions to be relaxed temporarily in relative short time windows, but measures will need to be reintroduced if or when case numbers rebound.

Last, while experience in China and now South Korea show that suppression is possible in the short term, it remains to be seen whether it is possible long-term, and whether the social and economic costs of the interventions adopted thus far can be reduced "

 
Last edited by a moderator:
EXCLUSIVE OFFER - Offer expires: 20 Jan 2025

- Earn up to 200,000 bonus Velocity Points*
- Enjoy unlimited complimentary access to Priority Pass lounges worldwide
- Earn up to 3 Citi reward Points per dollar uncapped

*Terms And Conditions Apply

AFF Supporters can remove this and all advertisements

So given that, does it mean the death rate isn't even close to the % reported?


I think it is more that they have worked back from the death rate (though quite probably some deaths will have been put down to the flu or other reasons.. )

There have been a number of reports like this in recent times.

One I saw had a graph reworked to show when infections of the Cases actually were likely to have occurred, rather than when the reporting was showing term to have been..


But yes I think it is well understood now that China had at least a month of active cover up/denial/procrastination on CV 19 before they understood its serious and then swung into hyperdrive to suppress it.

Part of their delay too was guessed to have been die to running large Political Conferences and not wanting bad news to spoil them.

China's delay has certainly cost the world dearly. But various countries would still not have acted anyway till they could not deny the dying on their own soil.
 
Well frankly I think most countries have pretty much emulated China (except for notable exceptions- Singapore, Taiwan, South Kora) and at least when China responded they responded hard. I know there are plenty of China bashers on this forum but haven’t seen many western countries with better records yet. Without fail most have underestimated this.
 
In this case it means mainly people who have travelled o/s, at the moment. ;)

That raises an interesting question as to what does "evolutionary unfit" mean in current day living. And whether that has changed - due to evolution I guess!
 
But calling it the Chinese virus is racist?

Maybe China virus.
Quadrivalent influenza vaccines:
  • an A/Brisbane/02/2018 (H1N1)pdm09-like virus
  • an A/South Australia/34/2019 (H3N2)-like virus
  • a B/Washington/02/2019-like (B/Victoria lineage) virus
  • a B/coughet/3073/2013-like (B/Yamagata lineage) virus
 
By memory the general public bans were announced on Friday, the PM said he was still going to the footy on Saturday (changed his mind after all the WTFs). I know personally I stopped attending events about 2 weeks earlier.



NSW Chief Health Officer Dr Kerry Chant says members of rugby clubs from the University of Sydney and University of Queensland were exposed to coronavirus at event on Saturday.

The event was held on the Sydney University Football Ground, starting at 7.30pm and finishing at 10.30pm. She couldn’t give exact numbers but said it was a “large function”.

“All people who attended this event are considered close contacts of a confirmed case,” Dr Chant said.

“We ask that any attendees immediately self-isolate themselves for 14 days,
so that will be until midnight of Saturday, March 28 and should anyone develop symptoms, please contact the public health units on the appropriate numbers.”
 
Australia closing its borders to foreign nationals at 9pm Friday night.
NZ will do likewise from midnight tonight
 
I'm getting fed up seeing the Qantas credit card advert on the tv telling us which countries we could visit. Too painful!
And cruises. I've never seen so many ads on TV. More than bluddy Trivago - which seems to have gone AWOL come to think of it. Well there is one positive I guess.
Post automatically merged:

Stable door.
Lucky they don't like SA so much.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Become an AFF member!

Join Australian Frequent Flyer (AFF) for free and unlock insider tips, exclusive deals, and global meetups with 65,000+ frequent flyers.

AFF members can also access our Frequent Flyer Training courses, and upgrade to Fast-track your way to expert traveller status and unlock even more exclusive discounts!

AFF forum abbreviations

Wondering about Y, J or any of the other abbreviations used on our forum?

Check out our guide to common AFF acronyms & abbreviations.
Back
Top