How do you work this out? I can't see them becoming miraculously cheaper to repair.
On the other hand, I can see insurers simply continuing to increase their prices at rates far beyond inflation. I've just worked out that at the average of RACV's increases, they'll absorb my entire retirement income in not too many years.
Personal view based on extrapolating current trends. Not necessarily the view of an employer.
To be clear, I don't think they will be cheaper to repair than today. Claims inflation is still going to hurt for a couple of years yet, given that for parts, as a nation, we are essentially a price taker, not a price maker. If the Aussie Dollar starts to improve, then this may mitigate a bit.
I do, however, think they will be cheaper to insure than equivalent ICE models. For a couple of reasons.
First, I think that, whilst there have been supply chain issues for both ICEs and EVs, these have disproportionately impacted EVs. This will (well, SHOULD) unwind over the next few years which will ease insurance premium inflation for EVs more than ICEs.
Second, there is a relative scarcity of EV-experienced repairers at the moment, particularly in certain geographic locations. Supply and demand means that the ones that are there can charge a further margin over their ICE-equivalent repairers, especially if you effectively have no other competition in your area. This gets fed back to the insurer, who feeds it back to the customer. As more and more repairers become EV savvy, this will increase competition amongst repairers, which will drive down those margins and reduce cost to the insurer/insureds.
Third, the mix of claims is changing over time. Improvements in autonomous driving features, disproportionately represented on EVs relative to ICEs, is meaningfully reducing the frequency of certain types of collision claims, thus reducing the premiums disproportionately for EVs. Meanwhile, weather related claims are increasing significantly. But weather claims are more likely to be panel only damage than collision claims. And for panel only damage it doesn't really make as much of a difference whether the car is ICE or EV.
Therefore, I expect that inflation in insurance premiums for ICE cars will outstrip that for EVs.