Have you had to change/cancel travel due to COVID-19 (involuntarily or voluntarily)?

[robtemt]

I thought I would start a thread as a resource for AFFers who have changed or cancelled travel plans directly or indirectly due to 2019 n-CoV.

• Did the airline/cruise company cancelling or change your flight/cruise? Or, did you proactively or reactively cancel or change it on your own (and why?).
• Did they notify you directly, or did you discover it on your own?
• What was your original plan, and what was the revised plan?
• What was your experience like?
• Did you go through any travel insurance claim process, and how was that part of it?

For the record, part of my role at work is to monitor medical related issues, filter out mis/disinformation, and brief other staff using only verified facts from trusted sources, so I am not one to buy into sensationalism or hysteria. BUT, I am also an advocate of forward planning and monitoring situations that could affect travel plans.

Post automatically merged: Feb 10, 2020

To start it off…. We have begun voluntarily changing (or making back up plans for) our upcoming holiday SYD-(+/- SIN)-LAX-SJO-LAX-HNL-LNY-HNL-SYD

We are booked to the USA via SIN on SQ in a few weeks (F Saver Reward Booking). A few things caused us to start making contingency plans on getting to the USA including:

• Reading posts from Buttermilk Chicken regarding her RTW flight being disrupted between HKK and CEB
• Member Pushka raising a good point if Singapore will be next.
• Monitoring the World Health Organisations surveillance on n-CoV (as part of my responsibilities at work). Singapore confirmed infections were 28 on 5 Feb, 40 on 8 Feb, and 43 on 9 Feb. Several of these cases were human-to-human contact, with no recent travel to China.
• Bloomberg’s article this morning HERE, which discussed the spread of the virus from a conference attendee in Singapore, via a resort in France, to people in France, Spain, and the UK.

We contacted SQ, to discuss the options of alternative carriers, to which there were no available flights. The agent was very friendly, and said she understood the desire to rebook and avoid an Asia transit, but she said until official bans are in place, there were no options, but “we will offer options if Singapore becomes affected by travel bans”.

We began searching other options. We contacted VFF, who found one seat on DL SYD-LAX in W, and one seat on VA in J SYD-BNE-LAX. No other business or premium reward seats (except any seat) were available +/- 1 day of our desired travel (with pre-booked hotels, cars, and other flights to South America, and Hawaii). We will keep looking for another J seat on same day, and hopefully two on the same flight to free up closer to the date.

We have left our SQ bookings as is for now, and will cancel either that booking of the DL/VA booking closer to the date as thing develop.

Overall Experience:

• Wait times on the phone are obviously a bit longer, but I’ve not been on hold longer than 15 minutes with either VA or SQ.
• Staff at both SQ and VA call centres have been friendly, empathetic, and helpful in searching, but have no/limited availability and flexibility in voluntary changes so far.

 

[p--and--t]

I cannot see how Bali is free of the virus .

Seems incredulous

This will wreck the cruise industry.

The ocean cruise industry mainly (so far).

 

[straitman]

The ocean cruise industry mainly (so far).

Some areas more than other. Princess has redeployed Sapphire from Japan to Australia and cruising through winter.
They have very heavy bookings.

 

[k_sheep]

Time for a discussion about testing for the virus. There's lots of talk about 're-infection' based on having a negative result in between positives, but it's not that simple.

Part 1 - laboratory testing.__________________________________________

To find evidence of virus infection, you either look for the virus itself, or evidence that it has been there. The latter is what most blood tests for viruses do - for HIV, hepatitis A/B/C, herpes, chicken pox, EBV (glandular fever) etc. They are detecting antibodies that your body has produced to help fight the virus off. These can turn up within days, and persist for many years, many for life - which is the basis of vaccination. This testing is not yet available yet for COVID-19 so I won't talk more about it - except to say if you get tested, often they will take some blood as well. This is stored so once the testing is developed, they will use that blood to see how the assay is working.

What we are doing here is looking for the virus itself. The most sensitive and specific way to do this is to take a patient sample and incubate it with cells and observe for weeks to see if cells die off (very simplified). This is expensive, labour intensive and takes weeks so it is not routinely done for diagnosis.

What we do instead is look for the virus genetic material instead - in this case RNA. Once you have sequenced the virus, you look for areas that are unique amongst your species in question. From that you design mini 'copies' that will stick to those areas and replicate rapidly - the idea being if it finds the virus, it will make many little copies. If it doesn't, nothing. There's different ways then of detecting how much product has been created. Good in theory, works pretty well. But it means you need tiny amounts to produce some product - and if you do it for long enough, you will get non specific sticking, and EVERYTHING will be positive if you leave it long enough. So you have to come up with a cut off point, which varies widely.

No test is 100% reliable, and this is no different. There's a possibility some of the testing isn't quite unique enough and may pick up other coronaviruses or related species. Or the current circulating virus may mutate, and will give you a false negative. Contamination in the lab is a huge issue - imagine if one of the staff has a cough containing the virus, it will often show up every specimen as positive (seriously, the entire room will be coated). If your specimen is next tested after a positive one, there may be carryover, etc etc. There are methods to reduce the chances of all of this, but it is never a 0% chance. Hence why people may be tested several times.

Another point is this picks up virus whether it's alive or dead - people can test positive long after the virus is dead, and unable to cause further infection.

 

[k_sheep]

Part 2: Specimen collection

Now this is quite a critical area.

In the laboratory, we have been routinely using the detection techniques for over 25 years (in fact, 20 years ago I was a baby scientist doing exactly this, all day, every day, with another RNA virus). If idiot young me could do it, then most people can. So this is the most robust part of the process.

Getting the virus from you, the sneezer, to me, the scientist is the more variable part. Different viruses live in different places - ie if you are looking for genital herpes you wouldn't do a swab from an armpit or something. You go to the place with the highest viral load. For coronavirus species, this is the respiratory tract. For some coronaviruses (like the ones causing the common cold), it will be most concentrated in the nose and throat (hence you get runny nose and sore throat as a reaction to it). For this novel one, it seems like it more effects the lower respiratory tract, the lungs.

So in severe cases, the best place to collect a sample from is deep in the lungs. This is difficult - you can't really shove a swab down into someones lungs. It just doesn't work - it's not long enough and people cough. So what happens in critically ill people, is they will be knocked out with anaesthetics, put a tube with camera down the windpipe, squirt in hypertonic (super-salty) saline, and suck it back out. Not pleasant and labour intensive, but done in ICU and respiratory wards regularly. The next best thing is to cough up a good glob of sputum (phlegm) - but this comes up through the mouth and will get contaminated by all the mouth viruses that are always about. So it's difficult to get a good, clean sample. The bigger problem is both of these methods have a high chance of spreading the virus to anyone else around, which you certainly don't want.

So what happens in the fever clinics etc. Well, they just take a swab. This is highly operator dependant! If you get someone who is nervous, or inexperienced, or poorly trained, they might just poke the back of someones throat and hope that will be enough. Again, we're trying to collect a good amount of potential virus material! The better way is a nasopharyngeal swab - which involves cramming a long mascara-brush-type thing up the nose and into the brain (well that's what it feels like anyway). All the bristles are rubbed around the mucous membrane and the increased surface area increases the material collected. Unpleasant, so people may try to avoid it - but to the detriment of reducing the chance of testing positive if you have the virus.

So someone testing positive, then negative, then positive is entirely feasible - the negative might have been from a poorly collected sample. There may have been virus, but it was below the cut off. They might have used a different lab with a different method. Many possibilities!

 

[Pushka]

Time for a discussion about testing for the virus. There's lots of talk about 're-infection' based on having a negative result in between positives, but it's not that simple.

It’s posts like this and contributors like you that make me highly value this forum. Thankyou!

 

[k_sheep]

It’s posts like this and contributors like you that make me highly value this forum. Thankyou!

Well there's no cricket on, so I got bored

I'm a middle of the road frequent flyer for this forum - viruses, though, I can talk about all day!

 

[Pushka]

Well there's no cricket on, so I got bored

I'm a middle of the road frequent flyer for this forum - viruses, though, I can talk about all day!

Oh MrP just found the SA versus Australia one day match on Foxtel and I was watching gogglebox!

 

[Pushka]

So Bali. I'm seriously considering switching to FiJi. I'll plead my case with Luxury Escapes and maybe with Qantas to change bookings with minimal penalty. I'm expecting no joy there in either case so any positive result will be gratefully received.

 

[juddles]

It’s posts like this and contributors like you that make me highly value this forum. Thankyou!

Completely agree Pushka!! Thank you @k_sheep for taking the time for those posts - they help tremendously to outweigh the meanderings of non-experts like myself

So Bali. I'm seriously considering switching to FiJi. ..

Pushka, this is where I think that decisions can be made that are sensible, and although never wishing a bad outcome, I know that I would far prefer to be ill or quarantined in Fiji rather than Indonesia - without being aware of the relative medical competence and/or availability of such, at least I would feel more comfortable in a nation who I feel are very caring and of similar culture to our own.

---

Thinking out aloud, as I tend to do, am pondering the info that k_sheep provided regarding testing. I have always understood that the stats on positive cases are possibly even more misleading than enlightening - as there are tremendous barriers to these stats being in any way real or accurate - things from simply lack of testing, to government withholding of info, through to incompetence or failures in the testing process - deaths are just a tad more difficult to miss, but even those are almost certainly under-reported in a phase where higher numbers are a bad thing.

To the vast majority of people, however, these realities are not in their mind. Hence we have people boldly declaring what they think are "mortality rates" etc. And likewise, I am sure in the average persons perception, doing a test of someone to see if they are positive or negative would be understood to be a universal and accurate procedure - I think K_sheep has truly explained that this belief is just wrong.

I recall a few years ago when I was in Africa in Ghana and there was a huge hoo-haa about Ebola or similar. The airports had that equipment that is often referred to in the media where "passengers are screened by measuring their body temperature". I was a tad concerned at the time, as due to getting a huge reaction to the soap a friend had used to wash my bedding prior to my arrival in Accra, I was covered from head to toe in huge and numerous red welts - it made even me fear for my own well-being. I was also sweating like crazy due to having just changed from a high-altitude/zero humidity work environment to a flat tropical heat bath. As I approached the screening post I saw that there was a TV monitor that showed you using heat imaging as you approached - and I appeared quite "hot" (probably the only ever context I can claim that description )

But I also saw that the staff at what appeared to be the monitoring screens correlating to this (an assumption based on me seeing my image on their screens) were just chatting amongst themselves and did not at any point in the seconds I took to walk through even look at the monitors. I mention this as it shows the discrepancy between reality and the official version. Yes, they had thermal imaging being done of pax. But they were not actually using it.

I simply cannot believe that Bali is some sacred island in the se asian world that is blessed with a lack of coronavirus.

 

[RooFlyer]

But I also saw that the staff at what appeared to be the monitoring screens correlating to this (an assumption based on me seeing my image on their screens) were just chatting amongst themselves and did not at any point in the seconds I took to walk through even look at the monitors. I mention this as it shows the discrepancy between reality and the official version. Yes, they had thermal imaging being done of pax. But they were not actually using it.

My GP told me the story that during SARS, he landed in HKG and there was a temperature-measuring station in the arrival pier. He said he enjoyed having a good look at the screens, to see how variable the readings were on people, because there was absolutely no official in sight!

 

[RooFlyer]

OK, count me in. Japan and Taiwan at the end of my DONE4 about to be scrubbed, in favour of direct return from Europe (QR Qsuites ... so not all bad ).

Not that I'm too concerned about getting the virus, (although at my age and state of health that's a bit of a concern), its getting stuck somewhere. I wouldn't be surprised if in the next few weeks Japan gets added to the 'can't fly from' lists for, say Singapore at least. I have another trip lined up for mid April so that's an additional concern about 'exposure' to Japan. Even if it didn't get a travel ban, I just wouldn't be able to enjoy myself in Japan.

Only one hotel booked which is non refundable, and I'll plead my case, but will be a big saving in $$$ overall, but at a points and SC cost of course. Those DSCs will be veeeeerrrry handy.

 

[Pushka]

OK, count me in. Japan and Taiwan at the end of my DONE4 about to be scrubbed, in favour of direct return from Europe (QR Qsuites ... so not all bad ).

Not that I'm too concerned about getting the virus, (although at my age and state of health that's a bit of a concern), its getting stuck somewhere. I wouldn't be surprised if in the next few weeks Japan gets added to the 'can't fly from' lists for, say Singapore at least. I have another trip lined up for mid April so that's an additional concern about 'exposure' to Japan. Even if it didn't get a travel ban, I just wouldn't be able to enjoy myself in Japan.

Only one hotel booked which is non refundable, and I'll plead my case, but will be a big saving in $$$ overall, but at a points and SC cost of course. Those DSCs will be veeeeerrrry handy.

The travel bans and self-isolation seem to happen overnight. And that's where travellers can be caught.

 

[disruptivedolphin]

I just wouldn't be able to enjoy myself in Japan.

I think that's a very important point to bear in mind at present. The mood here is quite frankly terrible. It reminds me not so much of after the March 2011 earthquake as of 1Q 1995, when the Hanshin earthquake hit in January and then Tokyo was thrown into chaotic panic by the sarin subway attack, the shooting of the NPA chief, and other cult-related activity. The common factor is of course fear of the invisible, but this is completely nationwide whereas the 2011 and 1995 fallout was more limited in geographic reach.

 

[Fred_bear]

The travel bans and self-isolation seem to happen overnight. And that's where travellers can be caught.

Spot on. This is why we’ve changed our itinerary for Italy (leaving 16 March) from including Venice and Como, and are instead going g from Riomaggiore to Monaco and Nice. Not too concerned about catching the virus (proper hygiene will mostly mitigate that), but worried about exclusion periods. So far Rome, Florence and Riomaggiore seem relatively unaffected so we’ve not changed plans for there. Noting of course things can and will change quickly

 

[Pushka]

Well that was a nice surprise. I haven't tackled the cancellations yet but was able to get some award seats to Fiji so that will alleviate the Financial fallout from cancellation of Bali. Means an overnight stay in Rydges then a very early Fiji Air flight. Means we get there at 11.15 though. Have briefly run it past MrP and it seems to be going okayish!

 

[jase05]

Spot on. This is why we’ve changed our itinerary for Italy (leaving 16 March) from including Venice and Como, and are instead going g from Riomaggiore to Monaco and Nice. Not too concerned about catching the virus (proper hygiene will mostly mitigate that), but worried about exclusion periods. So far Rome, Florence and Riomaggiore seem relatively unaffected so we’ve not changed plans for there. Noting of course things can and will change quickly

France and Spain just doubled their cases overnight. I think it’s only a matter before further travel restrictions are placed on other countries unfortunately

 

[Fred_bear]

France and Spain just doubled their cases overnight. I think it’s only a matter before further travel restrictions are placed on other countries unfortunately

Indeed it is. We’re not planning on cancelling unless forced to, so are keeping a very close eye on things and making risk assessments based on this information.

 

[knightfall88]

Indeed it is. We’re not planning on cancelling unless forced to, so are keeping a very close eye on things and making risk assessments based on this information.

I'm of the opposite view. Sure it might get slightly worst in terms of travel restrictions but I feel like governments around the world's view is trending towards simply accepting that this is the new flu and focus on being well prepared to treat it. The panic, fear and obsession around the spread has been the worst part of this pandemic.

 

[Fred_bear]

I'm of the opposite view. Sure it might get slightly worst in terms of travel restrictions but I feel like governments around the world's view is trending towards simply accepting that this is the new flu and focus on being well prepared to treat it. The panic, fear and obsession around the spread has been the worst part of this pandemic.

oh I agree. The media is absolutely feeding the panic and fear with its constant updates etc. for the vast majority of people this will be a bad cold. Yes it has a slightly higher mortality rate than the flu, but that (at the moment) seems to predominantly be in vulnerable groups. As I mentioned we’re taking a very risk-based approach by looking at government travel advisories and quarantine requirements.

 

[oz_mark]

I'm of the opposite view. Sure it might get slightly worst in terms of travel restrictions but I feel like governments around the world's view is trending towards simply accepting that this is the new flu and focus on being well prepared to treat it. The panic, fear and obsession around the spread has been the worst part of this pandemic.

Initial response was to try to contain the spread. This has worked before, so seems a reasonable place to start.

Sure, the end result may be that the virus just becomes endemic in the population, but trying to contain it seems like a reasonable place to start. And even if it did not work, I'd say it has slowed the spread somewhat, allowing for people to learn about the virus, how to treat it, etc.