Have you had to change/cancel travel due to COVID-19 (involuntarily or voluntarily)?

[robtemt]

I thought I would start a thread as a resource for AFFers who have changed or cancelled travel plans directly or indirectly due to 2019 n-CoV.

• Did the airline/cruise company cancelling or change your flight/cruise? Or, did you proactively or reactively cancel or change it on your own (and why?).
• Did they notify you directly, or did you discover it on your own?
• What was your original plan, and what was the revised plan?
• What was your experience like?
• Did you go through any travel insurance claim process, and how was that part of it?

For the record, part of my role at work is to monitor medical related issues, filter out mis/disinformation, and brief other staff using only verified facts from trusted sources, so I am not one to buy into sensationalism or hysteria. BUT, I am also an advocate of forward planning and monitoring situations that could affect travel plans.

Post automatically merged: Feb 10, 2020

To start it off…. We have begun voluntarily changing (or making back up plans for) our upcoming holiday SYD-(+/- SIN)-LAX-SJO-LAX-HNL-LNY-HNL-SYD

We are booked to the USA via SIN on SQ in a few weeks (F Saver Reward Booking). A few things caused us to start making contingency plans on getting to the USA including:

• Reading posts from Buttermilk Chicken regarding her RTW flight being disrupted between HKK and CEB
• Member Pushka raising a good point if Singapore will be next.
• Monitoring the World Health Organisations surveillance on n-CoV (as part of my responsibilities at work). Singapore confirmed infections were 28 on 5 Feb, 40 on 8 Feb, and 43 on 9 Feb. Several of these cases were human-to-human contact, with no recent travel to China.
• Bloomberg’s article this morning HERE, which discussed the spread of the virus from a conference attendee in Singapore, via a resort in France, to people in France, Spain, and the UK.

We contacted SQ, to discuss the options of alternative carriers, to which there were no available flights. The agent was very friendly, and said she understood the desire to rebook and avoid an Asia transit, but she said until official bans are in place, there were no options, but “we will offer options if Singapore becomes affected by travel bans”.

We began searching other options. We contacted VFF, who found one seat on DL SYD-LAX in W, and one seat on VA in J SYD-BNE-LAX. No other business or premium reward seats (except any seat) were available +/- 1 day of our desired travel (with pre-booked hotels, cars, and other flights to South America, and Hawaii). We will keep looking for another J seat on same day, and hopefully two on the same flight to free up closer to the date.

We have left our SQ bookings as is for now, and will cancel either that booking of the DL/VA booking closer to the date as thing develop.

Overall Experience:

• Wait times on the phone are obviously a bit longer, but I’ve not been on hold longer than 15 minutes with either VA or SQ.
• Staff at both SQ and VA call centres have been friendly, empathetic, and helpful in searching, but have no/limited availability and flexibility in voluntary changes so far.

 

[Pushka]

I'm of the opposite view. Sure it might get slightly worst in terms of travel restrictions but I feel like governments around the world's view is trending towards simply accepting that this is the new flu and focus on being well prepared to treat it. The panic, fear and obsession around the spread has been the worst part of this pandemic.

We have no visibility on if/when that might occur and people are travelling soon.

 

[p--and--t]

Standing back from the media hype, I look at it this way.

Given that it's spread-ability is currently suspected to be double or more that of common flu's currently circulating (I think I have that read somewhere) then eventually it will be part of the thousands of viruses that circulate in various concentrations through the general population in most countries in their cooler seasons.

Governments strategy appears to be to manage in such a way to contain and delay it's impact for as long as economically feasible and then will accept the inevitability (possibility already have).

Additionally, the media will eventually move on as the public becomes bored with the repetition and click-bait and start focusing on some footballers indiscretion or similar which will aid the public's acceptance of the new status quo.

In the meantime, the authorities will quietly have their hopes pinned a vaccine will be made available in short order given the major advances in technology since SARS.

The gap between when the virus is ubiquitous and the vaccine produced in such volumes that it can be incorporated into the annual flu shot will be the most testing period for governments and economies.

 

[straitman]

In the meantime, the authorities will quietly have their hopes pinned a vaccine will be made available in short order given the major advances in technology since SARS.

The gap between when the virus is ubiquitous and the vaccine produced in such volumes that it can be incorporated into the annual flu shot will be the most testing period for governments and economies.

The trials of the vaccine that are starting this week are reported to take a year to complete fully.

 

[burmans]

I'm of the opposite view. Sure it might get slightly worst in terms of travel restrictions but I feel like governments around the world's view is trending towards simply accepting that this is the new flu and focus on being well prepared to treat it. The panic, fear and obsession around the spread has been the worst part of this pandemic.

I'm still struggling with the fact that after doing some research the numbers of people who died from the flu last year were in the hundreds of thousands (I have variously read 400k and 650k). So is this particular virus actually abnormal?

 

[disruptivedolphin]

I'm still struggling with the fact that after doing some research the numbers of people who died from the flu last year were in the hundreds of thousands (I have variously read 400k and 650k). So is this particular virus actually abnormal?

You do realise it's not actually replacing any other flu, just adding to the range of flus, and thereby adding to the strain on medical resources?

And that we're still only two months in, and that pretty much all the experts acknowledge that there is still much that needs to be known?

 

[straitman]

You do realise it's not actually replacing any other flu, just adding to the range of flus, and thereby adding to the strain on medical resources?

And that we're still only two months in, and that pretty much all the experts acknowledge that there is still much that needs to be known?

But the question is what makes it different to any other serious flue strain? Why the specific emphasis compared to any other?

 

[p--and--t]

But the question is what makes it different to any other serious flue strain? Why the specific emphasis compared to any other?

Probably because of what is not known and most of the other flu's are well known and understood. The following are of concern:

• this one appears to spread more than 2 times faster than other flu's and even ignoring the potential re-infections rate (see below) will potentially cause 2-3 times more hospital admissions on top of the already onerous load on health infrastructure during winter of the common flu's that people will get anyway
• unlike many of the other older flu's that have vaccines available, we don't have one for COVID yet
• unlike many of the other flu's the population are in general unlikely to have any built up immunity (that's why its called "novel") and there is conjecture that people can be reinfected within weeks.

 

[ajd]

Probably because of what is not known and most of the other flu's are well known and understood.

Just to be clear, when we say "other flus", 2019-nCoV isn't classified as an influenza virus and COVID-19 isn't classified as influenza. There's much we don't understand yet because it's not a flu, it's more like SARS/MERS.

Post automatically merged: Mar 1, 2020

Do we predict any airlines going under this year due to decreased demand? Will we see government bailouts? And at what point when an airline is in financial trouble do you cash out all your remaining FF points in their program as gift cards...

 

[amaroo]

Do we predict any airlines going under this year due to decreased demand? Will we see government bailouts? And at what point when an airline is in financial trouble do you cash out all your remaining FF points in their program as gift cards...

Won't just be airlines.....

 

[juddles]

I'm still struggling with the fact that after doing some research the numbers of people who died from the flu last year were in the hundreds of thousands (I have variously read 400k and 650k). So is this particular virus actually abnormal?

"So is this particular virus actually abnormal?" - that is an excellent and relevant question.

Other more expert people will perhaps throw stones at details in the following, but it is my attempt to both give one possible answer to your question, and also, to go over in my own head what I have seen / heard / felt and try to answer this question for myself....

Let's start with the basics - what exactly is "Coronavirus"? The first thing is that it is remarkable in having so many names - I think the generic term "corona virus" grew so much traction in the initial stages that it still is understood and used by most people - even though "it" is just one of many of the coronavirus family. The horse has bolted on that one.... Now we have the new and precise term of "COVID-19" - but that is also widely misused by the media, etc. This name refers to the effects of the virus, the disease itself. The beasty (had to chuck in a truly non-medical term here ) as in the actual virus itself is officially known as "SARS-Cov-2". For a while the actual virus was called "2019nCov", but this has been replaced by the official SARS-Cov-2. Obviously there will be much intermingling of these things. But to wrap that part up, there is a virus that is now officially named SARS-Cov-2, that when it infects humans, their illness is termed COVID-19, and the term coronavirus is now used by the common folk to describe either of these.

Viruses are teensy organisms that infect and multiply and get transmitted by many many hosts - not just people - essentially all living things have their own little collection of these buggers. Viruses themselves are like all species of everything - their primary goal is sheer survival. Nothing more or less. Viruses have developed a curious need for survival in that they cannot simply stay in a cosy place (their host) forever. As their needed environment (the host) will eventually die. So if they cannot send out their offspring to other hosts, their civilization is doomed to extinction. So even if they just lived in a peaceful coexistence with their environment, and caused no harm, they would still all perish if they did not manage to jump ship.

So to enable that jump to another host, over time, in good old Darwinian fashion, the viruses that managed to provoke their host to do something that enabled the leap were favoured. So as a virus in a host that breathes, a great little technique was to irritate their respiratory system to induce a violent sneeze or cough that would propel zillions of babies out into the air to land on other fresh hosts.

But this form of onwards travel, caused by an impact on the current host, brought with itself another peril – if they irritated (harmed) the host too severely or quickly, they ran the risk of flogging their old horse to death before another fresh horse wandered by. So they would all perish anyway. So after many years, viruses have perfected this balance between harming enough to enable movement, but not harming enough to stuff things up too quickly.

So the “usual” status quo is that various viruses “infect” all living organisms, each balancing that act of survival.

Then, to add to the beauty of the living world, and more Darwinism, it is extremely beneficial to any living organism to have mutations. These are random slight changes that make them able to take advantage of new circumstances, which is imperative if the normal environment you live in suffers a sudden change. Most mutations perish instantly, hence why successful organisms only mutate part of their population, but IF there is an opening for the small percentage that are “different”, then this enables the species to take advantage of this and go on to future glory when all the Conservatives suddenly get wiped out by some change.

Due to technical details (the nitty gritty of how viruses take hold in an organism – which is a spectacularly complex subject but really could be described as being the right shape to fit with a physical shape in the potential hosts form - read up on ACE2 receptors if you really want to go into the mechanics of it all) specific viruses end up being hosted by one or more specific hosts. Unfortunately some of those “shapes” (or potential docking stations) are much more similar and thus viable between some species more than others. IE pigs and bats and humans have potential docking stations far more close in nature than all the other hosts – from algae to walruses.

So, every so often, a virus that happily lives in a specific host will have mutations that can manage a leap to a different species. This is what has happened here.

The current belief is that this coronavirus managed such a trans-species leap due to very close contact between sick animals and people in the infamous market in Wuhan. Another version that I personally believe to be more likely is that the leap occurred in a nearby lab where scientists were studying sick bats – ie they were in extremely close contact with animals that were only there because they were sick. It just takes one mistake and ….. Everyone in that area goes to that market – and for basic things, not because it is a hive of bat-eating degenerates. But anyway, that is digressing….

So the virus, in its form, managed the leap to people. More and more people got sick, and thus was borne this notorious saga.

Perhaps an “abnormal” aspect of this virus is that it appears to be sufficiently adept in surviving and provoking transmission in its new host – people. Most times this trans-species leap occurs, a virus is not so successful. Some previous examples such as Ebola were ultimately unsuccessful to the virus – too lethal and lack of re-transmission success. Early indications are that SARS-Cov-2 has hit the jackpot – virus survival wise – in being able to leap from human to human without killing too many – managing to repeat this process and even doing it without hurting most hosts too much. It may even be able to manage host to host transmission through non-violent means – dirty hands in a toilet rather than explosive bouts of sneezing and coughing.

I really think the mortality rate of this will eventually prove to be very low compared to many omni-present existing viruses we have. But so then you have to look at the world-wide coverage this thing is gaining. And why.

From a correct or rational basis, it could be perceived that as a new virus, the final outcomes and impact are not yet known, hence “caution is prudent”. Despite it having a killer-record far lower to date than the usual human influenzas, it could also be valid to fear that as a new thing it may provoke peaks in health care needs that are going to be a tad difficult to manage. All organisms (the hosts) themselves have minute differences (mutations?) and also have effective ways to fight viruses. But when there is a rapid spread of a new thing the impact is much greater. These natural defenses get honed year by year due to our exposure to the constant sweeps of normal human influenza. But a new thing will have a sharp initial effect. So in that sense this thing is “abnormal”.

But I think the truly bizarre and abnormal aspect of this virus is based on media coverage, which drives almost all aspects of modern society – our fears, our demands on government, our emotions, etc.

People get bored with the constant barrage of the media onslaught. Even if the underlying cause is real or deserves thought or action, the media just annihilates us with carpet-bombing, which no matter how painful or important the topic, in such huge over-doses eventually produces simply numbing. So we look to a new focus….

2019 ended as a year where we were all absolutely buried in news about droughts, about bushfires, about Trump, and above all, about Climate Change. All serious topics. But I suspect we as a generation were just saturated by such. So the arising of some new topic simply had an immense appeal. At the end of the day, fearing things is an essential and valuable survival tool – and this gave us all something fresh to satisfy that need.

Think about it, truly. This scourge has killed a couple of thousand people. Even if it goes on to conquer the world, as it will, it will probably only kill tens to hundreds of thousands of people. As you have realized already, this is less than the usual influenzas. Yet governments have closed borders, economic chaos is in full swing, and there is not a single day when the headlines do not tell endless more updates about it. But really, it is trivial in the whole scene. How many tens or hundreds of thousands have died due to other illnesses in the past few months?

This brings, paradoxically, the possibility that I have expressed before – the means of preventing COVID-19 are essentially the same as preventing the usual contagious diseases – so there is a distinct possibility that this virus will end up causing an overall drop in casualties from viruses!

In summary, this virus has some quirks and “novel” aspects, but is really insignificant. The hype and attention are just because the public loves a crisis that the media delightfully and profitably feeds them….

Jesus, this post is long, even for me!! :0

 

[ajd]

Won't just be airlines.....

Indeed, this might be the trigger for an all out global recession, but let's be optimistic here!

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The trials of the vaccine that are starting this week are reported to take a year to complete fully.

There is not one vaccine. There are multiple trials of different vaccines being developed, or have already been developed, by a number of different companies.

Some of the triasl have already commenced including at the University of Nebraska and also in China (NIH clinical trial of remdesivir to treat COVID-19 begins ) whereas others are yet to commence.

Stuff

www.stuff.co.nz

"We still don't know how contagious it is," says Petousis-Harris.

However, dozens of groups and companies are already working on new drugs, trialling existing drugs on patients and developing vaccines after China found the pathogen, sequenced it and made it publicly available.

More than 80 clinical trials are underway, which Petousis-Harris says is mind-blowing.

 

[ajd]

There is not one vaccine. There are multiple trials of different vaccines being developed, or have already been developed, by a number of different companies.

Some of the triasl have already commenced including at the University of Nebraska and also in China (NIH clinical trial of remdesivir to treat COVID-19 begins ) whereas others are yet to commence.

And as some of the media articles that interview the scientists working on these vaccines have stated - different teams are taking different approaches based on the particular methods they specialise in, we won't have any clear idea for a while yet as to which approaches work, and several different approaches may end up having similar efficacy. We also don't know which manufacturers will ultimately end up mass producing these vaccines.

(Remdesivir isn't a vaccine - it's an antiviral drug that is used to treat existing cases, and has been trialled against some other diseases with varying degrees of success.)

 

[ajd]

In summary, this virus has some quirks and “novel” aspects, but is really insignificant. The hype and attention are just because the public loves a crisis that the media delightfully and profitably feeds them….

I certainly hope you're right, but as an IT person who cringes every time I see mass media talk about Y2K as if it was all just a hyped up scare, rather than a scare that didn't come to pass thanks to all the attention forcing companies to employ many, many people to get ready and fix things... (it may still have been a bit overhyped!) when this all passes, let's not forget that the outcome we actually observe could be a lot worse in a parallel universe where there's less hype and less effort spent on preparation and response.

 

[juddles]

"So is this particular virus actually abnormal?" - that is an excellent and relevant question.
.....

I just realized that my post could be perceived as thoughtful, non-controversial, and even, God help me, coherent!! This is not how I usually finish a night of wine and internet... So I must address the imbalance thus provoked in the universe with something else - so must be the opposite - clueless, controversial, and completely incoherent. Luckily such a task is within my abilities:

There is a general move by humans to be more sensitive to other life forms - specifically the rise of vegetarians in societies that do not suffer the affluence problem that such an unusual choice of life style would otherwise be forced upon. We are ever more focussed on protecting species like diamond-footed frogs or whatever. Even if these mean nothing in our day to day existence. We will (when we are rich and think we can) prohibit all manner of industries and development to save tiny insignificant butterflies.

I get that. I get the deep feelings of compassion that people feel. But today we are faced with a viral pandemic. Every single lab on the planet racing to develop a means of removing this danger to us. But, at the end of a philosophical day, isn't what we seek the extermination of a species? Actively.

Why is a viral spore less warranting of that human compassion than a diamond-footed frog?

Surely they may have feelings??

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I'm still struggling with the fact that after doing some research the numbers of people who died from the flu last year were in the hundreds of thousands (I have variously read 400k and 650k). So is this particular virus actually abnormal?

Yes in that the abnormal part is that it is contagious for a longer period in a carrier than the typical flu and that the virus does a great job of replicating in the upper respiratory tract, even when people don’t have any symptoms or just begin to feel sick.

This means it has the potential ability to spread more rapidly than the common flu.

The Common Flu has a R0 of 1.3 whereas Covid 19 is thought to be in range of 2 to 3.1 So Covid 19 may be two to three times more contagious in terms of how rapidly it could spread.

 

[Austman]

Why is a viral spore less warranting of that human compassion than a diamond-footed frog?

Or a panda?

"Cuteness" seems to play at least a bit of a role...

 

[lovetravellingoz]

"So is this particular virus actually abnormal?" - that is an excellent and relevant question.

Other more expert people will perhaps throw stones at details in the following, but it is my attempt to both give one possible answer to your question, and also, to

In summary, this virus has some quirks and “novel” aspects, but is really insignificant. The hype and attention are just because the public loves a crisis that the media delightfully and profitably feeds them….

No they are not insignificant.
1/ As per my recent post it is currently thought to be contagious for longer and the way it replicates well in the upper respiratory systems also means that it is thought to be able to be passed on when the carrier is showing no or few symptoms. Hence why the medical experts currently believe that it may be two to three times as contagious as the common flu.

2/The common flu is a major killer, but we have vaccines which reduce what the death and hospitalisation rate who otherwise bee.

However yes Covid 19 will like the common flu not kill everyone and so it is not an end of days scenario, but it certainly has the potential to be a lot worse than the seasonal flu and especially tilla vaccine is rolled out en masse.

There are many unknowns however including whether it will be seasonal (ie dissipate in the warmer months.

Offsetting things though is that Covid19 is still spreading whereas the seasonal flu is already well established.

 

[juddles]

.....

Offsetting things though is that Covid19 is still spreading whereas the seasonal flu is already well established....

Exactly - seasonal flu kills tens of thousands every single month, every month of the year.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Just to be clear, when we say "other flus", 2019-nCoV isn't classified as an influenza virus and COVID-19 isn't classified as influenza. There's much we don't understand yet because it's not a flu, it's more like SARS/MERS.

MERS is quite different to SARS or Covid19 and very limited in its spread.

With SARS:

The original SARS virus that spread around the world in 2003 was thought to be a lower respiratory infection: It replicated in the cells deep within the lungs and caused the pneumonia. People also seemed to only spread the virus days into their illness, when it was already clear they were sick. This made SARS more difficult to pass on to others and the job of containing it relatively easy.

The new virus that causes Covid-19 disease appears to be a different beast: While it also can eventually lead to pneumonia, the virus does a great job of replicating in the upper respiratory tract, even when people don’t have any symptoms or just begin to feel sick.