How will international travel work with no COVID 19 vaccine

[Himeno]

Forget herd immunity with a vaccine.You may get 60% uptake in countries like China but it won't happen in India for example.

How did they deal with Smallpox then? Did people who didn't have a medical reason not to get the smallpox vaccine have a choice?

 

[JohnM]

I bet flu shots are going gangbusters this year. When the pineapples trooped town to the doctors surgery last week (entering via the flu shot back door) the other people had not had a flu shot for years.

Social distancing etc. looking like it’s hammering this year’s flu curve even before shots

cheers skip
View attachment 216389

That graph is going to be very interesting to follow.

 

[drron]

Smallpox is a totally different virus and much more dangerous.It had a very high death rate.Probably the cause of millions of deaths in indigenous peoples around the world with the exploration and colonisation by Europeans in the 1400-late 1700s.Now unlike some modern historians this was not a deliberate decision of the colonisers as they had no idea of infectious agents basically until the work of Louis Pasteur in the late 1800s.The mortality rate for smallpox was ~ 35%.

Basically smallpox was also deadly in Europe but many had survived infection hence then immune.It wasn't until the observations of William Jenner in the late 1700s when he observed that those who had had cowpox - those famous milkmaids - had much less severe smallpox or didn't get it at all.So he then deliberately gave cowpox as a prevention against the more severe smallpox.

So the live vaccinia virus is the original smallpox vaccine.Indeed the name vaccine comes from the latin for cow.Before Jenner in 1796 described his method a form of "vaccination"known as variolation was performed.probably first in China in the 1400s.The scab from a smallpox lesion was pounded into a powder and rubbed into skin scratches.however it was the smallpox virus and although usually not a severe case resulted there were many deaths.

So fortunately the smallpox vaccine became available long before all our rights-the forerunner of Wyeth Pharmaceuticals was producing it in the early 1800s.So mandatory vaccination was done in many countries.So much so it was felt that it could be eliminated.so the WHO coordinated a campaign beginning in 1967 to eliminate the disease.The last case was in Somalia in October 1977.

The vaccine is still produced and the CDC has a stockpile in case of bioterrorism.

 

[JohnM]

Smallpox is a totally different virus and much more dangerous.It had a very high death rate.Probably the cause of millions of deaths in indigenous peoples around the world with the exploration and colonisation by Europeans in the 1400-late 1700s.Now unlike some modern historians this was not a deliberate decision of the colonisers as they had no idea of infectious agents basically until the work of Louis Pasteur in the late 1800s.The mortality rate for smallpox was ~ 35%.

Basically smallpox was also deadly in Europe but many had survived infection hence then immune.It wasn't until the observations of William Jenner in the late 1700s when he observed that those who had had cowpox - those famous milkmaids - had much less severe smallpox or didn't get it at all.So he then deliberately gave cowpox as a prevention against the more severe smallpox.

So the live vaccinia virus is the original smallpox vaccine.Indeed the name vaccine comes from the latin for cow.Before Jenner in 1796 described his method a form of "vaccination"known as variolation was performed.probably first in China in the 1400s.The scab from a smallpox lesion was pounded into a powder and rubbed into skin scratches.however it was the smallpox virus and although usually not a severe case resulted there were many deaths.

So fortunately the smallpox vaccine became available long before all our rights-the forerunner of Wyeth Pharmaceuticals was producing it in the early 1800s.So mandatory vaccination was done in many countries.So much so it was felt that it could be eliminated.so the WHO coordinated a campaign beginning in 1967 to eliminate the disease.The last case was in Somalia in October 1977.

The vaccine is still produced and the CDC has a stockpile in case of bioterrorism.

Worth a read for anyone unfamiliar with this: Guns, Germs, and Steel - Wikipedia

Diamond is a very readable author for an egg-head. (Seriously.)

 

[Scarlett]

Worth a read for anyone unfamiliar with this: Guns, Germs, and Steel - Wikipedia

Diamond is a very readable author for an egg-head. (Seriously.)

It's not just a good read in terms of viral spread and how civilisations have coped, but other developmental factors too. The section relating to Australia is amazingly eye opening when you consider the role of the 'staple grain' and 'beast of burden' in the development of civilisations. Rice, corn and wheat on other continents, but on the Australian continent...

That one book truly changed the way I looked at the history of this continent and some of the reasons for why our collective history looks the way it does.

 

[CityRail]

Coronavirus vaccine trial set for Perth

An Australian research company is a step closer to finding a coronavirus vaccine that works, with scientists about to embark on a hunt for volunteers.

thenewdaily.com.au

After the UK, Australia is also started testing the vaccine. Should that be successful in the next few months, international travel is going to come back.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

After the UK, Australia is also started testing the vaccine.

Should that be successful in the next few months, international travel is going to come back.

No, that is not how trials work as it cannot be successful within only a few months. Stage 1 may be, but there are multiple stage yet after that to also go though.

For a vaccine to get to the stage of being rolled out as a vaccine it has to go through multiple trials, or phases, with each trial or phase having a different purpose. This is why it takes so long to get a new vaccine candidate to be developed. to the stage of actual use.


The goals of Phase 1 testing are to assess the safety of the candidate vaccine and to determine the type and extent of immune response that the vaccine provokes.

Vaccine Development, Testing, and Regulation

Systems for developing and testing vaccines emerged after the 19th century, when many vaccines began to be used. The current system for developing, testing, and regulating vaccines developed during the 20th century as the groups involved standardized their procedures and regulations.

www.historyofvaccines.org

Stages of vaccine development | European Vaccine Initiative

Delivery of a vaccine in a programme such as Expanded Program on Immunization is the end result of years of discovery and development. Only a tiny percentage of candidate vaccines progress to licensing, making the costs of vaccine Research and Development extremely high. This fact also makes it...

www.euvaccine.eu

How Vaccines are Developed and Approved for Use | CDC

Learn how new vaccines are developed, tested in clinical trials, approved and recommended for use in the United States.

www.cdc.gov

 

[Gremlin]

One of the unknowns for me is what will happen to travel insurance. There are general exclusions for pandemics. In the absence of a vaccine, there will (almost certainly) still be a pandemic ongoing.

Maybe there will be intrepid insurers out there who will offer cover for Covid-19 illness whilst overseas. Likely to be pretty expensive, if I had to guess. Not sure that they would extend coverage to include travel interruption - the risk of a subsequent wave in some country overseas (or Australia), with corresponding further lockdowns and travel restrictions would be pretty high.

 

[Pushka]

One of the unknowns for me is what will happen to travel insurance. There are general exclusions for pandemics. In the absence of a vaccine, there will (almost certainly) still be a pandemic ongoing.

Maybe there will be intrepid insurers out there who will offer cover for Covid-19 illness whilst overseas. Likely to be pretty expensive, if I had to guess. Not sure that they would extend coverage to include travel interruption - the risk of a subsequent wave in some country overseas (or Australia), with corresponding further lockdowns and travel restrictions would be pretty high.

I cannot see any Insurance company offering cover for Covid and likely those who previously covered pandemics likely won’t in future. I’ve got about $6000 in pending and closed claims with Insureandgo who did cover pandemics. One claim already approved and will submit the rest as soon as Australia continues the Do Not Travel warning.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

One of the unknowns for me is what will happen to travel insurance. There are general exclusions for pandemics. In the absence of a vaccine, there will (almost certainly) still be a pandemic ongoing.

Maybe there will be intrepid insurers out there who will offer cover for Covid-19 illness whilst overseas. Likely to be pretty expensive, if I had to guess. Not sure that they would extend coverage to include travel interruption - the risk of a subsequent wave in some country overseas (or Australia), with corresponding further lockdowns and travel restrictions would be pretty high.

Most likely that CV 19 will just be excluded from any new policy. Either specifically, or with wording that will mean that you will not be covered.

 

[mushez]

1/ Greenland has already eradicated CV19. So there is already an example of less than 18 months.

2/ Personally I believe that New Zealand will eradicate CV 19 in the very near future.

3/ I would also believe that Australia will eradicate CV 19 not long after New Zealand does.

4/ However in other countries where CV 19 has become widespread it would be an extremely difficult task to eradicating CV19. SARS was eradicated in 29 countries in about 18 months or less depending on the country, but SARS was not as contagious as CV19.


Note: By eradication I do not include people that arrive in Australia with CV 19 who go into quarantine.

1- Greenland hasn't had community transmission. Greenland has had one imported case that spread to 10 others - they were able to isolate that and stop that from spreading further in a single community. You cannot compare what I meant by eradication that takes 18 months to shake off community transmission to eradicate it vrs what Greenland have done.

2- Ditto NZ - NZ hasn't had community transmission yet - well so they say they don't. But if you don't test, you don't know. I feel NZ have community transmission that they are yet to detect.

3- Australia is different to NZ and Greenland that it has community transmission - which makes eradication a lot harder from AU than NZ.

4- 2003 SARS was very easy to identify and control, as everyone with it got a fever and could only spread it once they got a fever. Covid 19 is less contagious than 2003 SARS - however COVID 19 has asymptomatic carriers who are spreading it around. What is the killer blow with COVID 19 is the sleeper carries of asymptomatic people that are hard to detect without a zillion tests.

Community Transmission = people who are infected where you cannot trace back to exactly whom they got infected from through contact tracing - and hence back to the person who imported the virus in the first instance that started that chain.

 

[p--and--t]

Coronavirus vaccine trial set for Perth

An Australian research company is a step closer to finding a coronavirus vaccine that works, with scientists about to embark on a hunt for volunteers.

thenewdaily.com.au

After the UK, Australia is also started testing the vaccine. Should that be successful in the next few months, international travel is going to come back.

The guy in charge of running the trial in WA was on the ABC a bit earlier today and stated that they are hopeful the trial will be successful, it looks very promising but typically it is 5 years from commencing a trial to successful release of a safe vaccine.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

2- Ditto NZ - NZ hasn't had community transmission yet - well so they say they don't. But if you don't test, you don't know.

Community Transmission = people who are infected where you cannot trace back to exactly whom they got infected from through contact tracing - and hence back to the person who imported the virus in the first instance that started that chain.

Well the NZ official figures include: Locally acquired cases, unknown source 4%. That would seem to suggest community transmission to me.

I feel NZ have community transmission that they are yet to detect.

New Zealand's initial efforts at contact tracing were very poor and they only had a 100 staff doing it. This is probably a large reason while despite having a much stricter lockdown than Australia that their case rates and death rates are both marginally higher rather than lower.

So yes they could well have had infections that they do not know about. But then again most countries, including Australia, will have had infections that they do not know about.

 

[PineappleSkip]

I cannot see any Insurance company offering cover for Covid and likely those who previously covered pandemics likely won’t in future. I’ve got about $6000 in pending and closed claims with Insureandgo who did cover pandemics. One claim already approved and will submit the rest as soon as Australia continues the Do Not Travel warning.

I’m sure you could get it from a bespoke insurer - at a bespoke price. I’ve had insurance for travel to ‘do not travel’ and to war zones, because work has taken me there. Luckily, client has paid so far. When I priced such a bespoke policy from one of the insurers for a 5 day visit to Kabul for Mrs Pineapple, the premium was more than the airfare!

After the UK, Australia is also started testing the vaccine. Should that be successful in the next few months, international travel is going to come back.

When it comes to any vaccine, I don’t expect a miracle cure. If one eventuates, even once it has been released, you would then need to manufacture and distribute it - to several billion people in the 190 odd countries that have admitted to cases - soneone would need to fund that - and it would need to be 100% effective to eradicate it. I think we’ll be living with this gremlin for a long time to come.

cheers skip

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Coronavirus vaccine trial set for Perth

An Australian research company is a step closer to finding a coronavirus vaccine that works, with scientists about to embark on a hunt for volunteers.

thenewdaily.com.au

After the UK, Australia is also started testing the vaccine. Should that be successful in the next few months, international travel is going to come back.

Just heard the Australian researchers interviewed. They confirmed that their vaccine if successful is at least a year away.

 

[Gremlin]

I think we’ll be living with this gremlin for a long time to come.

I resemble that comment!

 

[Himeno]

The guy in charge of running the trial in WA was on the ABC a bit earlier today and stated that they are hopeful the trial will be successful, it looks very promising but typically it is 5 years from commencing a trial to successful release of a safe vaccine.

The "typical 5 year" time frame includes virus analysis and vaccine development time, not just from when human trials start. Medical advances and new vaccine development methods have already cut down that 5 year time line. If they were still using the methods from even 10 years ago, they would still be doing analysis of the virus and would only just be starting vaccine candidate development.

 

[PineappleSkip]

I resemble that comment!

Well, I hope we’re living with you for a long time, too

 

[OZDUCK]

Interesting piece in the NY Times today. I don't have the training to know if their claims make sense.

In Race for a Coronavirus Vaccine, an Oxford Group Leaps Ahead (Published 2020)

As scientists at the Jenner Institute prepare for mass clinical trials, new tests show their vaccine to be effective in monkeys.

www.nytimes.com

 

[craven morehead]

Interesting piece in the NY Times today. I don't have the training to know if their claims make sense.

In Race for a Coronavirus Vaccine, an Oxford Group Leaps Ahead (Published 2020)

As scientists at the Jenner Institute prepare for mass clinical trials, new tests show their vaccine to be effective in monkeys.

www.nytimes.com

Interesting read.