Indonesia Air Asia flight QZ 8501 loses contact with ATC

[Programme]

just ts recounted and saw 21 on same PNR

totally devastating for that groups loved ones

One of the TV stations (ABC?) reported that there was a tour group on board and had an interview with the wife of the now missing tour guide in Surabaya. This may be that group?

 

[Alanslegal]

The suggestions of the aircraft being too slow? reminded me of what jb747 recently posted on the Ask The Pilot's thread where he mentions the "available speed margin is often very narrow...." quoted below.

Thrust is only adjusted to control the speed. We don't as a matter of course, reduce speed in areas of turbulence. The turbulence speed, is basically the normal cruise speed anyway. The available speed margin is often very narrow, both in terms of going faster or slower. If the aircraft gets a bit too fast, it's easily corrected with power, or speed brake if necessary. But, if it gets too slow, only a few knots below min drag (Airbus green dot), you will not have sufficient power to accelerate again, and the deceleration will continue. The only solution then is to descend...which is bad.

So, within areas of turbulence, you may notice power changes, but they will generally be in both directions, and the aircraft often hit max power in these areas.

Anyway this is purely wild speculation by me, an armchair novice, that the pilots were flying pretty slow initially due to the weather, requested to climb? which they did, but at the same time did not accelerate enough? which compounded the decreasing speed with going upwards, and consequently stalled ....... with lots of computers warnings in the coughpit, plus with the likely nasty weather they were in - rain, hail, thunder, noise - things were pretty hairy up there, hence a la AF447.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

This scenario reminds me a lot of the Air Crash Investigation episode with the Adam Air flight 574 crash on 1st January 2007 which was also flying out of Surabaya (to Manado) on a B737-400 in similar bad weather.

Air Crash Investigation | National Geographic Channel





Check out the other person's name seq 119 travelling with the above on the same pnr. :shock: You wouldn't want to page them if they were fail to board pax. I find it quite bizarre the manifest of the pax was printed on a noticeboard in the room where relatives of the pax onboard where waiting (not sure if it was SIN or SUB) which people were freely taking photos of.

Very sad for the relatives that the whole world knows about the assumed death of their loved ones before they do. No such thing as privacy or respect for the victims or their families.



SkyNews also reporting QZ as 'the Malaysian based carrier' which is actually D7. They were also interviewing pax checking in for their D7 flight to KUL but you can't expect the media to get their head around the intricasies of the different Air Asia variants. I'm just surprised they got the aircraft type and series correct ie reporting it as an A320-200 although they have pictures on their website of a D7 Malaysian registered A330.

the reporting has been quite bad. Only a couple of news channels have correctly identified QZ as being an Air Asia affiliate, based in Indonesia. CNN is reporting it as Air Asia (Malaysia).

Then I turn to Fox... OMG. They've bought in someone to brief us on the 'safety' of the A320 and will explain to us 'if YOU!!! could be flying on one TODAY!!!' *shock* *gasp* *horror* (I kid you not, their reporting is actually taking those lines).

Re passenger manifest. I guess the relatives would already know by now. I guess there would be equal numbers of people wanting to make sure their loved one was not on board the aircraft. Publishing the manifest could help relieve concerns.

 

[markis10]

The suggestions of the aircraft being too slow? reminded me of what jb747 recently posted on the Ask The Pilot's thread where he mentions the "available speed margin is often very narrow...." quoted below.




Anyway this is purely wild speculation by me, an armchair novice, that the pilots were flying pretty slow initially due to the weather, requested to climb? which they did, but at the same time did not accelerate enough? which compounded the decreasing speed with going upwards, and consequently stalled ....... with lots of computers warnings in the coughpit, plus with the likely nasty weather they were in - rain, hail, thunder, noise - things were pretty hairy up there, hence a la AF447.

ATC tracks ground speed not airspeed, without upper wind datum they are off little use

 

[Wannabee]

Artemis, as far as no distress broadcast, the flight crew are more concerned with getting control of the aircraft. Using the radio is much lower on the list of priorities.

Aviate, Navigate, Communicate

 

[JessicaTam]

Aviate, Navigate, Communicate

Thanks, that's what I was trying to remember.

 

[HarryB]

Then I turn to Fox... OMG. They've bought in someone to brief us on the 'safety' of the A320 and will explain to us 'if YOU!!! could be flying on one TODAY!!!' *shock* *gasp* *horror* (I kid you not, their reporting is actually taking those lines).

I'm not surprised but still disgusted by the angle they take. They have nothing to offer other than fear, but unfortunately plenty of people buy it.

 

[JohnK]

This is terrible news. Still no word?

 

[Jimmy124]

Is it odd that a large number listed as seated on rows 1 to 3 were no shows?

It appears as though 10 of them were from the same family. They had purchased their tickets with an original departure time of 7.30am Local Time. They arrived at the airport this morning at 5.30 LT to be advised Air Asia had unsuccessfully attempted to contact them on 15 & again 26DEC to advise their bookings have been moved to a 5.35am departure.

Air Asia had advised they would be re-routing them as they no-showed, and were unaware of the re-timing, SUB-JKT-SIN - they were still complaining at 6.30am at the counter when word came through they had lost contact with the no-showed flight. They subsequently returned home and cancelled their family holiday, not accepting the re-routing.

detikNews : Miskomunikasi Jadwal Pesawat, 10 Orang Sekeluarga Ini Urung Naik AirAsia QZ8501

 

[PaulST]

On the topic of unorthodox looking names. I know of a few Chinese who upon moving to Australia 'weasternised' their names and sometimes what they choose isn't appropriate. A friend from uni was about to change his first name to 'Slipper' but was encouraged to choose Daniel by some government admin staff. It's only a suggestion but it may explain the names we're seeing.

Terrible news about the 10 from the same family.

 

[Jimmy124]

Terrible news about the 10 from the same family.

Hi PaulST,

Just to clarify - the article was in response to the large number of no-shows. The family missed the flight as they were not informed of the re-timing. They actually did not board, initially designated, had they have boarded, to sit in rows 1-3 deka2 was commenting on.

 

[ozkid]

Search halted due to nightfall

 

[Tortuga]

Surely they must be able to locate the wreckage within a kilometre based on current modelling and last data. The GPS would be on until impact and radar until it got below a certain altitude? You would hope a light aircraft and navy would be there within a few hours of first disappearance.

 

[markis10]

If the weather was going to be that treacherous I'm sure they would divert around as best as they can. That said I'm super sure planes can handle many times more than what most lay passengers are willing or able to handle.

Weather was indeed a shocker

 

[markis10]

Surely they must be able to locate the wreckage within a kilometre based on current modelling and last data. The GPS would be on until impact and radar until it got below a certain altitude? You would hope a light aircraft and navy would be there within a few hours of first disappearance.

Very unlikely they would get within 100kms if they had radar, which I doubt, secondary surveillance radar only runs out to 150-200km, it's probable the accident happened outside of radar coverage. Even so, if they did have an accurate last cruise paint, too many variables, loss of transponder at cruise and hull breakup could see a damage trail some 9km long that has been the subject of current and ocean traffic for some 12 hours now. I would hazard a guess the actual search area is going to be 20000 square kilometres or more.

 

[Tortuga]

Very unlikely they would get within 100kms if they had radar, which I doubt, secondary surveillance radar only runs out to 150-200km, it's probable the accident happened outside of radar coverage. Even so, if they did have an accurate last cruise paint, too many variables, loss of transponder at cruise and hull breakup could see a damage trail some 9km long that has been the subject of current and ocean traffic for some 12 hours now. I would hazard a guess the actual search area is going to be 20000 square kilometres or more.

Do planes send GPS position via their internet connection to land?

 

[markis10]

Do planes send GPS position via their internet connection to land?

They can if it's a service that they subscribe to, but most airlines don't pay the money, that may change after events this year.

The other thing to consider is the searchers ability to spot anything, at first glance I am guessing the sea is full of whitecaps, good luck finding anything in that when your not in a boat.

 

[Alanslegal]

ATC tracks ground speed not airspeed, without upper wind datum they are off little use

I was wildly speculating (with little idea)

Still no signs of the missing plane, so not looking good at all

 

[Awesom Andy]

Flew SYD-KUL earlier today, and went through the area where the flight went missing. The weather there was quite bad, despite some hours have already passed.

The no show rate seems ok, I know some of the 3K flights from SIN-HKG having roughly the same rate.

I don't think there are anything suspicious with the premium seats either. Generally speaking, nobody pays for them in Asia, and they would only get allocated if necessary. Think of it like an op-up.

And while we don't know what the unusual route request was, I would assume it's to go around weather.

Everything so far appears to be a normal flight. However, terrorism cannot be ruled out, as there were evidences in the past that SIN was a possible target.

 

[Sprucegoose]

With the recent increase in 'chatter' I fear this may be something more sinister

Highly unlikely given origin destination and pax. Indonesian registered business.

Let's see what the flight information shows first. Pitot tubes ?