Is Qantas Feeling the Pinch?

[levelnine]

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I'm laughing at the quality of your analysis. Truly hilarious.

As you are having some trouble interpreting the data, let me help you out:

1. It is a fact, not an opinion, that the current government has run the economy into the ground. If you read the second link with the report from Alan Austin, it makes this point crystal clear.

Compare Labor's term in office:

Through most of the Labor years, Australia’s growth in gross domestic product (GDP) ranked in the top seven in the 36-member Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). In 2009, it was actually the highest. In Labor’s last year, 2013, the first quarter number was 2.15 per cent, ranking sixth.

To the current government's term in office:

In stark contrast to that, Australia’s annual GDP growth over the year to March 2019 is down to 1.8 per cent, the lowest level since 2009, at the depths of the worst recession in eighty years. Australia now ranks 17th in the OECD.

And this:

From Monday, Australia has now joined the failing economies with the nominal cash rate below 1.5 per cent and negative real interest rates. Meanwhile, about fifty countries have now returned to the optimum range including OECD members Iceland, Chile and the USA.

And this:

Australia’s jobless ranking tumbled from ninth in 2013 [World Bank figures], to 13th in 2016 and now to a lowly 18th on the latest numbers.

2. It is a fact, not an opinion, that Australia is in the worst state it has been since 1990 and is on track to go even lower:

The economy is barely growing, and for the first time in 36 years GDP per capita has gone backwards in three consecutive quarters.

3. Your claim was that Australia is going very well compared to other countries. The aforementioned facts show you are categorically wrong.

I've yet to see a single fact from you showing that Australia's relative economic standing has improved under the current government. Not one.

4. The OECD has 36 member states, not 200. That means our rank of 17th puts us in the middle, where we are the envy of no other country. The fact that you do not know this basic piece of information about the OECD reveals a lot about your level of knowledge of economic matters.

Qantas knows it. Anyone that is able to understand facts knows it. Australia is heading into dark economic times thanks to the current government's amazing economic incompetence.

I'll continue to wait for a single fact from you that supports your argument. Just one.

 

[Franky]

I'm laughing at the quality of your analysis. Truly hilarious.

As you are having some trouble interpreting the data, let me help you out:

1. It is a fact, not an opinion, that the current government has run the economy into the ground. If you read the second link with the report from Alan Austin, it makes this point crystal clear.

Compare Labor's term in office:


To the current government's term in office:


And this:


And this:


2. It is a fact, not an opinion, that Australia is in the worst state it has been since 1990 and is on track to go even lower:


3. Your claim was that Australia is going very well compared to other countries. The aforementioned facts show you are categorically wrong.

I've yet to see a single fact from you showing that Australia's relative economic standing has improved under the current government. Not one.

4. The OECD has 36 member states, not 200. That means our rank of 17th puts us in the middle, where we are the envy of no other country. The fact that you do not know this basic piece of information about the OECD reveals a lot about your level of knowledge of economic matters.

Qantas knows it. Anyone that is able to understand facts knows it. Australia is heading into dark economic times thanks to the current government's amazing economic incompetence.

I'll continue to wait for a single fact from you that supports your argument. Just one.

I give up my friend, you obviously have an economics degree, so I won't bother you any more as it seems to upset you somewhat.

 

[JessicaTam]

[mod hat]
A number of posts have been removed due to unnecessarily hostile content.

Play nice or expect a holiday.
[/mod hat]

 

[RooFlyer]

1. That source is not The Guardian. Can you read?

I don't think that negates what Franky said (LOL)

1. It is a fact, not an opinion, that the current government has run the economy into the ground.

Is that really a 'fact' and not an opinion?

 

[Borisdog]

If anyone believes that the 2009 recession ( ? ) was the worst one in Australia in 80 years then I doubt they were alive or an adult during the glory that was Keating.

 

[Willie Orwontee]

Agree with the OP - they need to hit some financial goals before the quarter / FY ends.

 

[RooFlyer]

Agree with the OP - they need to hit some financial goals before the quarter / FY ends.

... And welcome to posting on AFF, WO.

 

[oz_mark]

If anyone believes that the 2009 recession ( ? ) was the worst one in Australia in 80 years then I doubt they were alive or an adult during the glory that was Keating.

Keating? That was the soft landing we had to have? Or something like that

 

[Andz]

You can't make blanket statements like this, it's very dependent on what your role is, your skill level and importantly if companies are currently looking for those skills.
Even during the great depression, there was people becoming self made millionaires.

I would say a far better approach is to keep tabs on relevant industries, keep your skills current with what employers (or customers) want (aka, don't be a dinosaur), and make sure you have enough savings to cover a rainy day, but that's (IMHO) good advice regardless of what markets are doing.

Does the truth hurt? The Libs lied to us and people fell for it. make popcorn, sit back and watch the drama unfold in the next 12 months.

 

[Bodie]

I think airlines are one of industries, that can have snapshorts of outlooks over the next 12 months. They would have data on bookings 3,6 and 12 months out, with both business and leasure travel, getting a sense of what is happening. The election may have effect on government travel due to caretaker provisions and results of the election, but if they are getting drop offs in future bookings in both sectors of the economy, could explain the bonus points or status credits current offers.

Bodie

 

[RooFlyer]

Does the truth hurt? The Libs lied to us and people fell for it. make popcorn, sit back and watch the drama unfold in the next 12 months.

Gee, I wish I could feel or even see some of this pessimism on the economy. My economy is going pretty well ... House prices in Tas still doing very nicely, super and share investments performing well, dividends and franking credits coming home to roost.

Qantas isn't doing so badly either. Its not like they are cutting fares or anything ...

 

[levelnine]

Is that really a 'fact' and not an opinion?

It is a fact-based conclusion based on the voluminous data that was set out in crystal clear detail.

To give you an example. RooFlyer drove his toy plane into the ground. That is a fact-based conclusion based on the fact that your toy plane crashed into the ground while under your control

Gee, I wish I could feel or even see some of this pessimism on the economy. My economy is going pretty well ... House prices in Tas still doing very nicely, super and share investments performing well, dividends and franking credits coming home to roost.

That's why we rely on facts, not feelings, when businesses make decisions and people evaluate the state of the economy.

 

[Quickstatus]

1. It is a fact, not an opinion, that the current government has run the economy into the ground. If you read the second link with the report from Alan Austin, it makes this point crystal clear.

And if Bill won, Bill was going to tax his way out the doldrums...I think we dodged not a bullet but a cannon shell.
Its a softening for sure but with the right manoeuvres: fiscal, monetary and of course electorally, we should be OK.

The AUD:USD pair is doing OK too by the way. The much lauded inverted 10 year bond yield in the US was going to cause a recession but it has not happened yet.

My most recent investment in Wagga Wagga is cash flow positive from day 1 so much so the bank had no hesitation - fact.

Seems like a lot of people wanting the whole place to fall over. However my gut feeling is that its OK - the litmus test is my electrician and fencing guy. He is booked out 1 month in advance. And the fencing guy who is doing my 500m of post and rail in bits at a time to spread out the capital expense is booked out 3 months ahead.

 

[levelnine]

My most recent investment in Wagga Wagga is cash flow positive from day 1 so much so the bank had no hesitation - fact.

Seems like a lot of people wanting the whole place to fall over. However my gut feeling is that its OK - the litmus test is my electrician and fencing guy. He is booked out 1 month in advance. And the fencing guy who is doing my 500m of post and rail in bits at a time to spread out the capital expense is booked out 3 months ahead.

In a competition between your gut feeling and business in Wagga Wagga versus the Chief Economist of Westpac, I'm going to go with the Chief Economist of Westpac:

The other significant development since the RBA meeting has been the disappointing GDP report for the March quarter. This again highlighted the key themes that have been most prominent in our consistent assessment that the Australian economy is likely to continue operating well below potential, namely weak household income growth, a cautious consumer and a turning point in the savings rate.

RBA moves further towards additional easing; FOMC to deliver two cuts on geopolitical uncertainty

Data supports our view of need for August and November cash rate cuts following June decision. FOMC to act in September and December.

westpaciq.westpac.com.au

 

[Quickstatus]

Funny that because the bank with no hesitation was Westpac. BTW Chief Economist did not say that the economy was going to collapsing.

As I said all that just says is that the economy is soft and it fits the narrative that QF (at least) is trying to shore up forward bookings. But with the pulling of the right levers things will be OK. The lever which should not be pulled is increased taxes. The voters were not stupid.

For me at least this period is the time to expense some capital when prices (including price of money) are very moderate.

Buy low and sell high...

 

[Ansett]

I do think we have gotten a tad off of topic guys may I suggest starting a new Thread..........................

 

[pauly7]

I do think we have gotten a tad off of topic guys may I suggest starting a new Thread..........................

Agreed, and in the playground please

 

[serfty]

[mod hat]
A number of posts have been removed due to unnecessarily hostile content.

Play nice or expect a holiday.
[/mod hat]

This thread has indeed drifted from the topic. Any continuance will result in sanction.

 

[juddles]

....

Play nice or expect a holiday.
[/mod hat]

Actually, I really need a holiday

Hopefully getting back on topic - My personal view is that QF is just tinkering with/tweaking the whole DSC game. That it has become a frequent thing suggests to me that they are getting good results from it, however they measure same.

I am not for or against anything they do, and despite the frequent second-guessing of QF, I think we don't really have (collectively on AFF) a real knowledge of the current state of affairs within QF. Despite me abhoring certain QF failings, my personal views include that the "ship" is being run very tight from the top, and the bottom line is (as it should be for a private company) the main focus.

 

[CaptJCool]

Where are all these DSCs that people are seeing? 25% (or 0% for a lot of FFs) are not DSC and the only general DSC offer for this year was Feb. There were 3 last year, and those were in Feb, Aug and Oct which means this year is probably going to be the same or similar. There's always mickey mouse offers thrown around to entice forward bookings, just like the 50% offers last year, but I fail to see the apparent desperation or even the deviation from 2018 outside of some minor experimentation with offers?

Beyond the general DSC offer, I NOTICED a couple more targeted directly to family members or myself. Would also note, double and triple FF points for booking QF flights as well. But when you’re J class to Europe in the next few months is over $7,000 or more, who’d bother when there’s other international carriers closer to $5,500, or those deals ex Europe or HK OR Indonesia or Bangkok around $2,500 - $4,000

The ongoing sales appear about similar to last year.

I would note the timing of the Federal election meant no Parliamentary sittings and more time spent on the hustings by the Ministers like Frydenberg and Hunt

But it would also be vast number of govt agencies cutting back travel to meet budget expenditure goals (except for Defence), this would seriously prune QF earnings on airfares