Is QF ever likely to fly into Dubai again?

[RSD]

It would be damn handy for me, and even a daily SYD or MEL run just to Dubai to feed into the Emirates connections would probably get a lot of bums on seats.

 

[AIRwin]

QF codeshare on EK?

 

[RSD]

QF codeshare on EK?

Buy it on a QF ticket and QF add a ridiculous amount of $ to the price compared to what EK charge for the same flight, buy it on EK and you don't get any SC's - can't win!

 

[RichardMEL]

I think QF's shown they have no intention of going back to DXB. EK has huge capacity which QF buy seats on (so works for EK) and they're not exactly awash in long range aircraft anyway. EK generally have the better product anyway (but I understand, of course, the "QF tax" for the codeshare...)

So I think no - they won't. EK wouldn't mind that at all as they win on revenue and QF take advantage o the onward connections they can sell without their own metal involved.

 

[ChrisMars]

I also wish the return of qf metal to dubai. With project sunrise on the horizon, I would imagine Qantas will focus on direct flights to LHR and CDG connecting with BA / AF partnership to connect to europe. Project sunrise must be a success, so no point adding some QF metal seats via another route.

 

[dajop]

You know, QF1 has popped into ATH and GYD over the last couple of weeks so never say never ...

But no I don't think so, in terms of regular commercial service. I think SIN works for QF better due to considerable good yielding traffic between SIN & SYD (that just doesn't exist between SYD & DXB), and they can also move MEL, BNE and PER pax onto the service at SIN to help fill seats between SIN & LHR (in addition to SIN-LHR traffic). With DXB, they never captured BNE and PER traffic that way, and even MEL traffic was problematic (hence QF9 reroute via PER), and with the plethora of EK services between DXB and LHR/LGW/STN they never stood a chance of picking up much DXB originating traffic on that route.

 

[jakeseven7]

There’s actually not that much destinational demand into the UAE as both QF and VA1 discovered with their forays into Dubai and Abu Dhabi.

 

[SYD]

There’s actually not that much destinational demand into the UAE as both QF and VA1 discovered with their forays into Dubai and Abu Dhabi.

At least QF was going to/from LHR and needed to stop somewhere - were they getting cheap fuel? Could they have, should they have added back FRA etc via DXB using 787s?

I reckon QF will return to DXB before VA goes to AUH or DOH…

 

[Lynda2475]

Hopefully not, if they dump SIN for DXB that only leaves the PER route to get to EU for those of us not wanting to transit the ME.

 

[SYD]

Hopefully not, if they dump SIN for DXB that only leaves the PER route to get to EU for those of us not wanting to transit the ME.

We might actually see some more ex-PER flights to Euro options when they get some more B787s….

 

[RSD]

Hopefully not, if they dump SIN for DXB that only leaves the PER route to get to EU for those of us not wanting to transit the ME.

I'm not suggesting that they dump SIN, just run a service as far as DXB to enable connection to EK's various services into the Middle East, North Africa, etc.

 

[Quickstatus]

Seems like the issue is the QF SC.
Don't be beholden to the SC and Shazam all the problems go away with DXB

Rocketman: "the best part is no part"
Maybe: "the best SC is no SC" ?

 

[RichardMEL]

There’s actually not that much destinational demand into the UAE as both QF and VA1 discovered with their forays into Dubai and Abu Dhabi.

Correct. It was NEVER about DXB but about connecting opportunities, and obviously QF could funnel pax out on EK to heaps of places from DXB and connections in to the then QF1/2 services.

 

[clifford]

At least QF was going to/from LHR and needed to stop somewhere - were they getting cheap fuel? Could they have, should they have added back FRA etc via DXB using 787s?

I reckon QF will return to DXB before VA goes to AUH or DOH…

What's your benchmark?

Hell freezing over?

 

[Quickstatus]

ex-PER flights to Euro options when they get some more B787s…

.

Yes, QF decided that it would be able to extract more of a premium when it does the long thin routes. There would be some cities that a 787-9 /A350 can support - at a minimum premium level. Everyone else can bugger off it seems

 

[RichardMEL]

At least QF was going to/from LHR and needed to stop somewhere - were they getting cheap fuel? Could they have, should they have added back FRA etc via DXB using 787s?

I think a poor use of vital equipment given EK's multiple frequences and capacity in same markets. Why "waste" 787's doing this when you can codeshare on EK and deploy your metal on say MEL-DFW or SYD-JNB?

I also suspect that the rot truly set in when QF opened PER-LHR, bypassing DXB totally. I do not think EK was very amused. Not that it really affected them in an economic or material sense, but it was a clear message from QF (and things were already shaky during those days with QR joining OW which also did not appeal to EK for obvious reasons.

I also feel QF then realised that after PER-LHR was a success they could bypass DXB themselves. They also realised having service back via SIN meant they could leverage their own capacity more for connections to/from SIN/BNE/SYD/MEL.

Meanwhile EK still getting revenue from QF in the form of codeshares, plus of course their own considerable market share, so QF existing DXB themselves was not an option. Additionally DXB was probably not best suited as a "mini hub" for QF - due to capacity and possibly EK may have pushed back on such an operation if it even was to be considered economically viable. A 787 from say DXB-FRA probably would not work capacity wise - LHR flights only really worked imo with the 380 because a) they had to stop somewhere on the way and b) demand to/from LHR always much higher and worked - I doubt that is the case with CDG/FRA or anywhere else.

However the 787 is a much better size to do this kind of thing from PER - as LHR and now FCO has shown. Pre pandemic they also teased CDG so that could also be an option when more 787's come on line possibly.

HKG used to be a preferred route to FCO via CX codeshare, but we know the kinds of problems HKG has been over recent years (even pre pandemic) and the AF/KL codeshares from SIN are pretty specific. It would be interesting to see if QF does see a CDG route working. (I admit Rome surprised me as being more leisure than Paris, but it seems to have been a winner so....)

I reckon QF will return to DXB before VA goes to AUH or DOH…

Agree. Just doesn't make much sense in this decade. It did 10 years ago, but much has changed since then.

 

[RichardMEL]

.

Yes, QF decided that it would be able to extract more of a premium when it does the long thin routes. There would be some cities that a 787-9 /A350 can support - at a minimum premium level. Everyone else can bugger off it seems

yes. long and thin routes. exactly what the 787 was designed for.

Plus there's also a preference seemingly to stop in PER (or even DRW and now SIN) over DXB. That seems to be a definite decision by segments of the Oz population - and shown by the success of the routes - even if PER does not seem like an obvious place to stop. Obviously incidents such as the women at DOH a few years ago and other concerns about the ME3 have caused a rethink among some pax (I can definitely understand!) and I have no doubt this is a factor also.

And again, those who want to go via DXB to europe can still do so on EK If one wants to pay the QF "tax" (basically for SC) for those codeshares (and more direct/shorter connections to many secondary EU cities) then they can fly "QF" on the same routes, or book EK and get points.

(of course EK also offers many reward opportunities for QFF members too)

 

[Quickstatus]

even if PER does not seem like an obvious place to stop

which is why F fought to consolidate its DOM and INT gates at the one location

incidents such as

Well, if Bali is anything to go by.., But likely thats a different clientele.
I suspect it's got as much to do with the fact that there is a significant UK diaspora in PER. Or maybe marketing to the Brits of a non stop to AU which is possibly more attractive to the Brits than the Aussies?

Nevertheless, the QF market is slowly shrinking and wonder to what extent the long thins are just awaiting the inevitable.

 

[RichardMEL]

You're right re the UK expat population in PER for sure.. but does that explain FCO?

I definitely think there are many factors here.

But yes, QF's market share is falling due to the capacity and schedule advantage of airlines like SQ/QR/EK etc.. this is not news. This is why QF is using the 787's to open up routes like PER-FCO, MEL-DFW, AKL-JFK(yes I know NZ goes to EWR) and the rumoured BNE-ORD.. that can compliment other services and leverage partner hubs. I think QF's business plan internationally is framed in this way because they know they just can't go head to head with the others (another reason for PER-LHR).

 

[Quickstatus]

because they know they just can't go head to head with the others (another reason for PER-LHR).

Yes at least they are trying something different - opening routes where there is no natural competitor and finding hubs where competitors don't have an Australian focus. It does not have the capital strength or the cost advantage to continue a war of attrition.

FCO is an interesting one. What about the Italian diaspora?