JB not renewing his contract/is leaving

[HS-TQE]

I see quite a lot of emphasis placed on the Delta partnership on here, and am always curious as to why (they're not even a shareholder of VA) - I think it's because maybe the USA (as a destination) is held in high regard on AFF? Personally I have a much stronger desire to travel almost anywhere else than the US (not that I would dislike it, it's just not high-up on the list).

Surely the partnerships with existing Star Alliance members (SQ, NZ, SA, AC) should also count for something too? Especially as SQ is a part owner (unlike Delta). Not that I really think an alliance is likely in any case, but if it did *A would be my personal preference.

The *A ship for VA sailed long ago, especially with the NZ separation and subsequent alliance with QF.

As I understand it the older members have veto power. NZ and UA being VA's rivals would use their veto to block VA's entry into *A, even in the unlikely event of a SQ takeover.

In other words, SkyTeam is Virgin's only alliance option. Even though they do get along with some *A members.

 

[kevrosmith]

Qantas is a member of OW and yet still has partner agreements with other airlines that belong to other Alliances, such as China Eastern and Air France, so there's a precedent there for VA to be in either *A and have a partnership with DL, or in SkyTeam and have a partnership with SQ etc. These relationships are not mutually exclusive for other airlines, it seems.

 

[dajop]

They will die or join an alliance. 5 years tops for survival, but IMHO without a sudden alliance making, no more than two.

In theory in a world where there are three alliances and VA are a major player in a specific market where there are only 2 major players - they should find a way to become a natural partner for both Skyteam and Star Alliance. Already, a regular VA domestic flyer can go a long way towards Skyteam status by accruing elite miles to DL's program. Unfortunately the same doesn't apply for star alliance, it would be nice if SQ would offer elite miles when flying on VA coded, VA operated flights as well (like they do on non-TATL Virgin Atlantic flights). That way VA's core customers could choose between Velocity, Star Alliance or Skyteam according to their needs, without VA actually being in an alliance.

Although for this to work, VA would also need to stump up for lounge access for the elite partners where VA themselves don't operate a lounge (eg SQ elite flying VA out of LAX or AKL). Also suspect if accrual of elite status to Krisflyer was a possiblity, it would probably need to exclude transpac sectors, so as to keep DL happy.

 

[HS-TQE]

Qantas is a member of OW and yet still has partner agreements with other airlines that belong to other Alliances, such as China Eastern and Air France, so there's a precedent there for VA to be in either *A and have a partnership with DL, or in SkyTeam and have a partnership with SQ etc. These relationships are not mutually exclusive for other airlines, it seems.

That would usually be true in most cases. However, the "relationship" between VA and NZ (and UA) has degenerated into hostility for them to use their veto to block any future VA application or sponsorship into Star Alliance.

There is also the DL elephant in the room, where they have mentioned in the past that they haven't ruled out buying a stake in VA in the future to further push it towards SkyTeam.

VA's only options are basically SkyTeam (the only Alliance available to them) or continue their bespoke alliance policy.

 

[Obzerva]

That would usually be true in most cases. However, the "relationship" between VA and NZ (and UA) has degenerated into hostility for them to use their veto to block any future VA application or sponsorship into Star Alliance.

There is also the DL elephant in the room, where they have mentioned in the past that they haven't ruled out buying a stake in VA in the future to further push it towards SkyTeam.

VA's only options are basically SkyTeam (the only Alliance available to them) or continue their bespoke alliance policy.

Considering DL haven't got VS in to SkyTeam after buying a more significant ownership than they would be eyeing in VA, I can't see VA joining any of the alliances regardless of DL buying a piece of VA or not.
VS didn't go for Star when SQ had the same piece of VS that DL currently has.
Similarly even though EI have been purchased by IAG, no oneworld membership there.

The next CEO would be better to build and strengthen existing relationships, and seek a few more as far as the international network goes.
The recent changes to HNA Group are welcome but didn't go far enough.
The improved access to a lounge before HX flights was a great step, but it's only for HKG.
Codeshare on GD, JD and HU is great, but still no lounges?

Think they need another partner in Europe, QF has BA, IB, IE, AY in oneworld, but they're all on the fringes of the European continent, not in the centre, given that both EY and SQ have both improved their relationships with the Lufthansa group it would be great if VA could form a relationship with them. Yes it's a non equity relationship, but not every partner needs to be equity, eg the existing relationship with HA.
Currently for intra Europe, VA's relationship is with AZ, and no one is exactly rushing to book with them currently.
Closer to home, a relationship with GA would be helpful, and it wouldn't negatively impact the relationship with SQ or the HNA group.

Domestically, the on board economy product doesn't have a lot of opportunity to really sparkle.
An economy passenger's experience is:
Welcome onboard (the welcome back is always nice)
Then the automated robotic announcements
Then the limited interaction for the snack and drink
More automated annoucements
and disembark.
Any cabin announcements can sometimes sound scripted or of varying quality as the crew don't seem to get the practice actually making announcements.

Reviewing sports sponsorships:
The AFL sponsorship is a good move, you have decision makers in corporate boxes and entertaining clients at games.
The V8 sponsorship is odd, is this VA's core audience? and the accompanying inflight safety video to go along with it? If I was to go to the States and had an inflight safety video featuring the Indy cars, I'm not sure how I'd feel about the airline. Meanwhile VS have a pretty decent inflight safety demo, VA don't need to copy it, but something inline with it would help the two airlines fit together better -

Tigerair:
Work out what to do with it, are they going to be international?
Are they the right size?
Is the perception still out there from the "bad old days", if so how is that fixed?

Fleet?
What is the fleet mix over the medium term going to look like?
Can the A330 and B787 be replaced by a single type that would cover Asia and LAX - the 777 does appear too big. could the A350 cover both at the right price?
The F100's out west are going to need replacing at some stage, would the A220-100 be the right replacement?
Of the current 737 MAX order will they all be 800's or would a few 900s help for a better business seat (ie for PER)

Costs vs income:
JB has increased costs without necessarily raising revenue income, how can that be fixed without cutting costs to the point where it looks cheap, ie the inflight snacks.

What does VA have over QF?
How can VA not be a lesser clone of QF?
The network in the Pacific I would argue is better than QF's, however I've never seen that promoted.
They do have a few unique routes (eg CBR-OOL, DPS-PHE, MEL-KGI - the latter two only being weekly), the two newest annoucements they have first mover advantage on (HBA-PER and NTL-AKL), would there be more potential for these where VA simply becomes first choice?

 

[Melburnian1]

... But Virgin in Australia?? Now without NZ? They will die or join an alliance. 5 years tops for survival, but IMHO without a sudden alliance making, no more than two.

juddles, the thought occurred to me some time back that VA might cease to exist. If that occurred, there'd be huge pressure on any Federal Government to remove cabotage, meaning that foreign airlines could operate flights where they chose (presumably cherry picking).

Is this in accord with your hypothesis?

It is far from the only airline overall in this situation, and QF will also be adversely affected by rising fuel prices when hedging runs out or coverage is lower (and there's QF's lack of timely fleet replacement), but VA isn't making an acceptable return on the capital employed. Nor has it done so in the oast.

Doesn't there come a point where shareholders and bankers withdraw support?

 

[Saab34]

F100s can be replaced with used A320s. Have seen this with Allegiant in the states and VARA have increased A320 fleet to four on 10-20 year old Airbus.

I think Tiger needs to be bigger, big potential Aus-Asia/Pacific/NZ narrow body. A321neo could have been an absolute weapon for Tiger...MEL-MNL/CGK/SIN etc...

 

[grubbidok]

They do have a few unique routes (eg CBR-OOL, DPS-PHE, MEL-KGI - the latter two only being weekly), the two newest annoucements they have first mover advantage on (HBA-PER and NTL-AKL), would there be more potential for these where VA simply becomes first choice?

This was one of the reasons I switched over - I could fly direct to places that were not offered by anyone else. Sadly the routes I used most often (SYD-ROK and SYD-MKY) were cut. The cuts were said to be due to low numbers but I used them regularly and never saw those flights anything other than chockers. Their WA network was a potential big plus but they squandered it by ignoring and not nurturing it.

I think there is a big market for unique direct routes and definitely think this is something they should go back to.

 

[docjames]

News now just emerging that Mark Dunkerley (ex-HA, ex-BA before that) was preferred option but stalled after poor recent HA performance announced.....

Article in AFR.com (unable to link due to paywall).

 

[AIRwin]

News now just emerging that Mark Dunkerley (ex-HA, ex-BA before that) was preferred option but stalled after poor recent HA performance announced.....

From BA to HA to VA...

 

[williamsf1]

News now just emerging that Mark Dunkerley (ex-HA, ex-BA before that) was preferred option but stalled after poor recent HA performance announced.....

Article in AFR.com (unable to link due to paywall).

The fasten seatbelts signs are flashing at Virgin Australia after its search for a new chief executive hit some unexpected turbulence.

Street Talk understands Virgin Australia's board was about to sign off on the appointment of former Hawaiian Airlines boss Mark Dunkerley, before a shocking and unexpected profit result from his former employer late last week prompted one final round of diligence.

Sources said Virgin Australia will ask Dunkerley for a please explain – and as long as he has a good explanation for Hawaiian Airlines' unexpected sales and earnings softness, then he expected to be steering the Australian airline in the new year.


It is understood the British born executive has already made plans to move to Australia to run Virgin Australia, but leave his family back in the United States. It means the CEO should have plenty of time to test his company's (and codeshare partners') services across the Pacific.

Dunkerley is said to be motivated by the challenge of running Virgin Australia's hefty P&L – which is fat at the top with almost $6 billion in revenue expected this financial year, but skinny at the bottom line. His job is to try and get more of that revenue flowing through to profit for shareholders.

 

[melb78]

gee not sure if he's a best person to run it

 

[UP4014]

He could be the right person, if revenue is $6B and you lost $100M you don't need to move too many numbers very far, a few percent on this and that should, I say should, get them into the black.

 

[melb78]

yeh all what it needs is to be privatise

 

[Must...Fly!]

He could be the right person, if revenue is $6B and you lost $100M you don't need to move too many numbers very far, a few percent on this and that should, I say should, get them into the black.

Cost cutting ahoy. Anyone who flies Virgin would have to wonder what is there to cut.

No multigrain bread in the lounge perhaps.

 

[pauly7]

Cost cutting ahoy. Anyone who flies Virgin would have to wonder what is there to cut.

They could downgrade catering further from snack size to fun size.... oh wait....

 

[AustraliaPoochie]

Squeeze another row/s ie row 31/32 onto the domestic 737-800s should do the trick.
Take away Y(x), ...
No food even during lunch and dinner flights, only water is available from now on.
BYO food is allowed, but you...
you must clean up be and clear food dirritus to the floor, you must expect your plane to be so so but not squaky clean, you must brush crumbs off your seat, you must brush crumbs off the fold down table, you must clear off your own print marks from where you have rested your head on the window, you must put down the arm rest after your flight, you must fold the seat belt in the x position...
JB didn't do such a bad job of steering VA, but I DID wish he had the gumption of doing several things, which he didn't do, NOT have approved the reduced SC amassation, had approved or pushed more for/of an alliance, even leased more wide bodied...
Maybe its time to go back to flying QF for all my flights. Pay a bit/lot more, but at the least be sure of more services.
<Maybe VA will go the way of TT the other day, where pax were stranded in ADL for 24 hours, troubles with engineering and no spare plane to ferry pax to MEL.>

 

[cove]

The failure to forge real airline partners alliances is probably their biggest mistake. I am hoping SQ move to 40% when HNA get sold up.

 

[AIRwin]

Virgin Australia's CEO search close to landing

 

[cove]

The plunge in oil prices will help in 2019.