I agree with the ¨unintended consequence¨bit. I do not agree with the ¨buffoons¨bit - just what do you actually know about the people involved there and the conflict?
I think they are buffoons.
Circumstantial evidence:
- the separatists do not have an airforce. The only group of people who therefore want SAMs are the rebels.
- the rebels have posted on social media showing off their new toys
- the rebels and even their leaders have been more than happy to state it was they who shot down military tactical and transport aircraft leading up to July 18
- when MH17 went down, they were happy to claim that it was they who brought a military transport down
- when they realised it was civilian, radio intercepts (without using any codewords!) pointed out their dismay
- when they wanted to move the missile launchers back into Russia - missing a missile - they didn't even bother covering it up with a tarp. In broad daylight, through a town? Amateurs!
To be verified:
- US needs to show evidence that they tracked the missile launch, and the appropriate radar emissions, from ground to impact with MH17. To dispute rumour that it was a air to air missile from a jet fighter.
- those photos of the launcher, the smoke trail, the convoy apparently leaving the region the next day - verify with time stamp and GPS locations, to prove it wasn't staged. US may have technical assets that potentially can pinpoint that exact convoy leaving Ukraine back into Russia - proof they are trying to hide the incriminating evidence
- verify that the phone conversation between the russian intelligence officer and the rebels took place; gives motive that it was a horrible cluster-F
Buffoon-ery post-crash:
- rebels acting unprofessionally, impolite, and intoxicated when the investigation team first tried to enter the crash area. Diplomatic speak for anarchy
- when it became clear it was a civilian plane, they clumsily deleted all the posts/tweets/photos of trumph and high altitude SAM capability - if you were innocent, wouldn't you claim through those channels that it wasn't us? Instead, this misguided attempt to erase history only leads to more incriminating evidence of covering up your mistakes
- not stopping the looting or desecration of the bodies. Using their credit cards. Repugnant. I wonder if Interpol can track the mobile phone signals/ID of the passengers' phones: I am sure they will be turned on and used
- sending a bot to change wikipedia entries to put blame on the other side
- if you are trying to save your image and protect your version of events, I can't think of how else not to do it.
In some ways, this is gang violence writ large. A group of militia-civilians given guns and missiles by a nation-state to run a proxy war. Not much signs of professional discipline. Showing off their big guns, looking to make a big mark by taking down planes using a brand new toy. A drive by shooting if you will, by thugs - MH17 happened to be at the wrong place at the wrong time, truly a slaughter of the innocents