MEL-OOL 14 Daily 🧐

[Must...Fly!]

SimpleFlying is mostly authors using paywall articles and/or articles from even here, airliners and ET to write their articles. We know one of them regularly posts here on this forum.

Precisely. You or I could write an article quoting 'sources'.

I don't that it's a surprise VA have required (multiple) capital injections. But the airline is almost certainly in a better place today than it was 6 or 12 months ago so that is cause for significant optimism IMO

 

[Matty F]

I think you’ve missed the point, but you can’t prove it either way

Neither can you, so why do the rest of us have to listen to your relentless nonsense and doom? You seem to have a major fixation with a collapse and all the drama that goes with it, while also admitting how highly speculative such theatrics are.

no one can since it’s black ops mode

Do you know how many privately held enterprises there are? Do you describe them all as "black ops mode", or only those on your agenda?

Bain had to put in multiple capital injections

How do you know this was not one of their strategies for prolonged traffic suppression due to the pandemic? Either way, the domestic aviation stats published by the gov point to market resurgence, and this can only be a great thing for profitability. Especially when you consider VA's ability to win more market share simply due to their superior customer service.

 

[HS-TQE]

Precisely. You or I could write an article quoting 'sources'.

I don't that it's a surprise VA have required (multiple) capital injections. But the airline is almost certainly in a better place today than it was 6 or 12 months ago so that is cause for significant optimism IMO

VA requiring multiple capital injections since takeover is public knowledge anyway, even made the 'First Few Free Views' section of the AFR, so this really isn't any surprise to anybody here or regulars of other travel/aviation forums.

 

[jase05]

VA requiring multiple capital injections since takeover is public knowledge anyway, even made the 'First Few Free Views' section of the AFR, so this really isn't any surprise to anybody here or regulars of other travel/aviation forums.

Every airline is/was doing it tough. QF was only about 3 months away from potentially going under at one point last year and could have headed down a similar path.
Hopefully clearer skies are ahead for both

 

[samh004]

I was booking a flight for this coming week, and was shocked to see MEL-OOL and even SYD-OOL 14 flights daily. They are the biggest operator on each route.

I assume trying to drive out Rex.

My emphasis.

Am I the only one who thinks there should be rules in place to make sure airlines/companies who do this need to show they will continue with the level of services if it looks like they are being anti-competitive? E.g. lets say they are trying to drive out REX from these city pairs, when REX leaves because they can't turn a profit a regulator of some sort needs to be able to step up and say, well you got rid of them, now you have to keep the level of services you flooded the city pair with for a certain length of time. It might start to become very loss making, but it will make big players think twice before they try it anywhere else.

And when you specifically talk about OOL, Qantas has shown time and again that they aren't the least bit bothered by the market. When I lived on the Gold Coast I would frequently choose BNE even if it cost a little more (and a lot more in parking) because there were more services. The lounge was also leaps and bounds better.

 

[Bagpuss]

VA requiring multiple capital injections since takeover is public knowledge anyway, even made the 'First Few Free Views' section of the AFR, so this really isn't any surprise to anybody here or regulars of other travel/aviation forums.

Which isn't a surprise because when Bain acquired Virgin Australia they didn't provide a set amount of funding. They said they were providing rolling funding which means they cash inject as required.
This ensures they aren't over or under funding.
The question is, have they poured in more cash than they were originally prepared to? The answer is probably yes due to the ongoing pandemic issues, but that's no surprise either.
I think most would agree (or like to agree) the worst is behind us so, so Bain have seen the airline through. If Virgin isn't breaking by the end of the year then that's a different story, unless something unexpected pandemic wise.

 

[Matty F]

The answer is probably yes due to the ongoing pandemic issues

I'm not sure I agree. It takes a quick minute to lookup how long the Spanish Flu lasted (two years), and then consider other major differences:
- population figures
- city densities
- global travel
- virulence of covid (purportedly higher)

Once you factor these in, surely Bain were prepared for the possibility of a 2-4 year pandemic?

 

[Melburnian1]

I agree that we'll never really know whether these flights are truly profitable since VA no longer publishes public annual reports, etc.

But doing some "back of the envelope" calculations, it would cost the average airline around $81 to operate a seat on a 737-800 from MEL to OOL (calculated using The Cost of Operating a Commercial Flight). So if they are selling most seats at an average fare of around $99, and perhaps a few people also purchase food on board/extra bags/J/etc., VA is more than breaking even.

The overall picture with VA 2.0 may change if Bain (as per at least one media report) decides to float the airline (whether or not it retains a percentage with escrowed shares is an unknown).

Irrespective, I won't be asking a broker or other party for shares. There are better investments than VA 2.0, QF or ZL. QQ is also listed.

 

[AIRwin]

Additional MEL-OOL flight on Wednesday and Thursday this week taking it to a total of 15 with none cancelled:

 

[cambriamarsh]

I agree that we'll never really know whether these flights are truly profitable since VA no longer publishes public annual reports, etc.

But doing some "back of the envelope" calculations, it would cost the average airline around $81 to operate a seat on a 737-800 from MEL to OOL (calculated using The Cost of Operating a Commercial Flight). So if they are selling most seats at an average fare of around $99, and perhaps a few people also purchase food on board/extra bags/J/etc., VA is more than breaking even.

Are these costs GST inclusive exclusive or ?? If they aren't the sane basis that would have a material effect.

 

[jrfsp]

Seems VA got it right with demand to OOL

Bumper Easter for Gold Coast as tourists choose glitter strip ahead of Sydney and Melbourne

Whether it's nice weather, sandy beaches or the lure of theme parks, people travelling over Easter are making up for lost time because of the pandemic.

www.abc.net.au