MH 777 missing - MH370 media statement

[medhead]

I feel that Juddles may have been a tad sarcastic there, but I could be wrong.

I was agreeing with the sarcasm

 

[browski]

Seems it is more important to adjust the modeling to make the impact appear in the current search area rather than use reverse modeling from Reunion to ascertain where the plane actually ditched.

 

[DrA]

Seems it is more important to adjust the modeling to make the impact appear in the current search area rather than use reverse modeling from Reunion to ascertain where the plane actually ditched.

Inverse modelling

Solve that one and you'll be super rich for solving P vs NP

 

[Foreigner]

Our brains like finding patters. The plane was flying to PEK, turned around to see PEN, then ended west of PER.......

Smart observations.

 

[Foreigner]

Malaysia, Maldives, Madagascar, Mauritius.

Saw them mentioned in an article the other day on MH370.

Mozambique is just to the west of Madagascar, on the African continent. Maybe far fetched to see debris that west.

 

[drron]

Channel 7 news at 4pm made a faux pas today.Talking about finding fragments from a missile with a photo showing of the flaperon found on Reunion.
Or do they know something we don't?

 

[RAM]

"garbage in - garbage out"

Shame on them for not being perfect in investigating such a common occurrence.

Modelling is one of the CSIRO's major activities - they chalk up a large amount of super computer time doing so (see their annual accounts).

Not validating inputs is an error that an undergraduate uni student rarely makes - just one item on a checklist for honours projects.
Drift models are not unusual.

 

[RAM]

So the surface search was not impacted. The model would help verify items, but as we see from the found piece they also actually check multiple identifying features, like serial numbers. We also see that the bit of the plane was actually found. Basically the model is of minor significance.

That is the assertion but it does not pass muster IMHO.

The planes and later ships were tasked to look for debris along the most likely route (from the arc). The search areas prioritised were the ones that the experts thought most likely to have the floating debris contained within them.

This priority was based on the drift calculations which took into account the arc.

It is true that the underwater search followed the arc.

It is untrue IMHO (very high probability) that the air and surface search were not impacted. That search relied on being told where to look - where the floating debris was most likely to be found. This took into account the surrounding area's (thousands of square km) wind direction data

Faulty (erroneous) wind direction data most likely had them looking in the wrong segments at the wrong times. But as Australia paid for all the fuel used then it is too much egg-on-face (especially given the media time the Pollies had) to say we wasted millions looking in the wrong place. Not to mention the risk of being sued by the families of those tragically missing.

All models are wrong, some are simply less wrong than others.

The kind of models used in this kind of work are drastically simplified in order to actually generate results in a reasonable timeframe. Trying to model the extreme intricacies in these things can take years on a supercomputer. One parameter being slightly off is unlikely to have made a difference. You run hundreds of models with incremental differences in each - if they tend to still converge on a common result, then you have a higher degree of confidence in that result. I expect this is what CSIRO did.

Not quite unfortunately.

It wasn't the model itself that was found to be wrong (a type of model that already existed and was modified) but the data entry was effectively corrupted and not checked for months. The model itself may well be wildly inaccurate but what was discovered and 'fixed' was the faulty data uploading.

The model itself theoretically works as the 'new latest' map of possible drift spread (pretty large area) includes where the debris was found. Of course we have to trust that the model was not 'enhanced' recently to ensure the result.

In the more detailed article (subscription) it ran through the issue with the data being corrupted (somehow) and never validated post loading. It all came down to uploading the wind direction data that the BoM provided. Format provided was not the format that CSIRO model accepted it as in - so really was garbage in unfortunately.

Sad result with so much at stake.

 

[whatmeworry]

New theory on MH370.

Malaysia's government newsagency has published a new theory suggesting Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 glided downwards and landed with soft impact on the southern Indian Ocean. The report raises the possibility that one or more of the 239 people on board were still alive when the Boeing 777 ditched into the ocean after flying for more than seven hours off course.

MH370: Malaysia publishes new theory

 

[Foreigner]

Comments by Malaysian that Inmarsat info is reliable:

http://english.astroawani.com/malay...-maths-and-physics-dont-lie-says-expert-70917

 

[whatmeworry]

French officials now believe with certainty flaperon is from MH370.

French investigators had until now been more cautious on the provenance of the debris.
But on Thursday they said a technician from Airbus Defense and Space (ADS-SAU) in Spain, which had made the part for Boeing, had formally identified one of three numbers found on the flaperon as being the same as the serial number on MH370.

MH370: Reunion wing debris 'certainly' from missing flight - BBC News

 

[robd]

Possibly more debris found -

Air France captain reports seeing object that may be from MH370 near Reunion | Daily Mail Online

 

[SeatBackForward]

Man claims MH370 wreckage on south Philippines island

http://www.thestar.com.my/News/Nati...-part-of-wreckage-in-south-philippnes-island/

 

[Melburnian1]

My apologies if this has been discussed elsewhere in AFF, but did anyone read the lengthy article by Byron Bailey in 'The Weekend Australian' of 9-10 January 2016 about his view on what caused the MH370 loss of life?

He has been saying this for some time. I have not attached it as the paywall might be a problem.

 

[docjames]

My apologies if this has been discussed elsewhere in AFF, but did anyone read the lengthy article by Byron Bailey in 'The Weekend Australian' of 9-10 January 2016 about his view on what caused the MH370 loss of life?

He has been saying this for some time. I have not attached it as the paywall might be a problem.

What was the conclusion?

 

[tgh]

What was the conclusion?

A perfect crime.. the pilot diditt……. ( I already knew that.. and I assumed that even blind Freddie also knew ….but you never know)

There was also an interesting proposal that the search area priority was incorrect and that the aircraft was deliberately ditched in the most geographically challenging area available

 

[marki]

NO NO NO and NO look at the evidence please

My apologies if this has been discussed elsewhere in AFF, but did anyone read the lengthy article by Byron Bailey in 'The Weekend Australian' of 9-10 January 2016 about his view on what caused the MH370 loss of life?

He has been saying this for some time. I have not attached it as the paywall might be a problem.

 

[jb747]

His view has no more relevance than that of the other zillion airline pilots out there.....

I might add that the claims that "all airline pilots agree with him" are far from the truth.

 

[drron]

But the search area has been moved further down on the ping arc already so the article isn't really telling us anything new.
You can access the article by googling MH370.The Australian article is currently second item on the search and doing it this way bypasses the paywall.

 

[Foreigner]

My apologies if this has been discussed elsewhere in AFF, but did anyone read the lengthy article by Byron Bailey in 'The Weekend Australian' of 9-10 January 2016 about his view on what caused the MH370 loss of life?

He has been saying this for some time. I have not attached it as the paywall might be a problem.

I read that article. Convincing. Bailey reckons area is further south and to the west of area searched to date.