MH 777 missing - MH370 media statement

[whatmeworry]

Now for a credible message from.... (pity about the 800+ staff cuts in the last 6 years)... CSIRO


What does our ocean modeling tell us about the fate of flight MH370? | News @ CSIRO"With the discovery of the 777 flaperon on La Réunion, we have again been called on for our expert ocean modelling advice. And it appears our original predictions may have been on the money.
View attachment 53604
The most recent drift modelling indicates that the overall drift of most debris in the months to July 2015 is likely to have been north and then west away from the accident site, indeed as far west as La Réunion. The finding of a flaperon on La Réunion does therefore match up with the calculations that place the crash site in the present area being searched by the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB)."

There is a time lapse animation of the daily drift based on the tangent that is the current search focus. Helps you to also understand how the 'plastic morass' builds up.

Worth a look.

For the conspiracy theorists - yes as these drift patterns had been previously projected and made widely available by the CSIRO then debris could be planted to fit in with the data.

Perhaps somebody was inspired the TV series Lost?

 

[RAM]

Perhaps somebody was inspired the TV series Lost?

Is there something you want to tell us....

 

[whatmeworry]

Is there something you want to tell us....

Way back on September 22[SUP]nd[/SUP] 2004 a Boeing 777 Oceanic Flight 815 carrying 324 passengers, disappeared over the Pacific Ocean. Of course this didn’t really happen at all, as this was the basic premise of the hit TV Show Lost.

In the TV show, the fictional flight was meant to go from SYD to LAX. But crashed on a fictional island of unknown location. When a "plane" is found, it found somewhere off the Indonesian archipelago.

Not saying that the plane of wreckage has been planted but rather maybe someone was inspired by elements of Lost or the movie Castaway. Eg. Plane goes off course and plane can't be found.

 

[whatmeworry]

Almost now certain the wing part found on Reunion is from MH 370.

MH370: Reunion debris is from missing plane - BBC News

 

[SeatBackForward]

I think Malaysia should stump up for a more methodical search of coastlines for more debris.

 

[kpc]

I think Malaysia should stump up for a more methodical search of coastlines for more debris.

Maybe the Malaysian PM can stump some of the money...I gather from press reports he has quite a bit of dough stashed in his bank accounts.

 

[seritonin]

He's eager to use this as a distraction from all the troubles he's having lately...

 

[ozbeachbabe]

Wonder what jailed Malaysian opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim thinks about the disappearance of MH370?

The disappearance of the flight was the same day of the trial that once again saw the leader of the oppisition jailed on questionable/trumped up charges.

Capt Zaharie Ahmad Shah was a good friend and staunch supporter of Ibrahim.

One line of thought is the Capt was so incensed by the prison sentence of his friend that he deliberately took the plane off course. The ultimate FU to the Malaysian Govt and loss of face and embarrassment to the PM when their aircraft goes missing and cannot be found.

 

[RAM]

Mistake not discovered for months by CSIRO

I have not noticed any local media outlets mentioning this. Very bad miss and for such a long time (months) by CSIRO - could have made a big difference in locating the crash site in the early days.

One of the fundamental rules of modelling is to validate all inputs.

Garbage-in-garbage-out - CSIRO mistake with imputing data


First debris drift model in early MH370 search was flawed | Safety content from ATWOnline

First debris drift model in early MH370 search was flawed

Australia has admitted that a drift model initially used to determine the best areas to search for wreckage from missing MH370, a Boeing 777-200, was wrong. In a document released by the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) Aug. 4, Australia says there was an error in the way in which Bureau of Meteorology wind data was transferred into the first drift model...

Flight MH370: Initial Debris Drift Model Wrongly Indicated Wreckage May Wash Up In Indonesia
Flight MH370: Initial Debris Drift Model Wrongly Indicated Wreckage May Wash Up In Indonesia

By Suman Varandani @suman09 [email protected] on August 05 2015 2:35 AM EDT

Debris that has washed onto the Jamaique beach in Saint-Denis is seen on the shoreline of French Indian Ocean island of La Reunion, August 3, 2015. On Sunday, a small piece of metal debris found washed up on a beach on Reunion was taken into police custody. Reuters/Jacky Naegelen



An initial drift model that suggested debris from the missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 could first wash up on Indonesian shores was inaccurate, the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) said Wednesday. The focus of the search for the missing plane has now shifted to the island of Réunion in the Indian Ocean, after a part from an airplane wing was found there last week.
ATSB said the initial model, from June 2014, mistakenly indicated the west coast of Sumatra as the location where debris from the plane could wash ashore in the first few weeks of July 2014. However, models run by Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) in November 2014, and updated last month, found that there was an “extremely low probability” that the plane’s debris would wash up in Indonesia.
The new report from CSIRO -- based on an analysis of ocean currents, winds and waves -- supports a theory that debris from Flight MH370 may have washed up "as far west of the search area" as the French island near Madagascar, where a flaperon was found last Wednesday. The current search for the Boeing 777-200 has so far been focused on a 46,332-square-mile part of the southern Indian Ocean, nearly 2,300 miles from the island.
“While this error in that model had no impact on the way the surface search was conducted, it was important in order to understand over the course of time where debris might wash up and help verify or discount the various items found on beaches, particularly on the west coast of Australia,” ATSB wrote in its report.

On Wednesday, Australia’s Deputy Prime Minister Warren Truss said that an expert from ATSB, which is leading the search for the plane, has been sent to Toulouse, France, to help authorities examining links of the Boeing 777 flaperon to the missing plane.
“An investigator from the ATSB will join the French and Malaysian-led international investigation team today to examine aircraft wreckage found on La Réunion,” Truss said, in a statement. “Malaysian authorities, who are responsible for investigating the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines flight MH370, have determined that the aircraft component retrieved from La Réunion is a flaperon from a B777 aircraft.”
Truss said that officials from Malaysia and France may release a “formal statement about the origin of the flaperon later this week.”
Authorities are scouring the shoreline of Réunion Island to find objects that could help provide long-awaited answers to the mystery of the missing plane. Several “pieces of interest” were found Tuesday on the coastline around Saint-André, and are being analyzed for links to the missing plane. But, authorities have warned that no conclusion should be drawn pending confirmation about the debris.
John Page, an aircraft design expert at the University of New South Wales in Australia, told the Associated Press (AP) that if the wing fragment is confirmed to be from Flight MH370, it is possible that other debris may have floated off rather than sinking to the bottom of the ocean. Page reportedly said that while the plane’s fuselage likely may have sunk, other lightweight parts could still be afloat.
"I'm certain other bits floated," Page told AP. "But whether they've washed up anywhere is another question. The chances of hitting an island are pretty low," he said, adding that the discovery of the flaperon suggested that the plane broke up after hitting the water.
Flight MH370 went missing on March 8, 2014, with 239 people on board, while on its way from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing. An international search operation, which has become the costliest in aviation history, has so far failed to provide concrete clues as to the whereabouts of the plane.

 

[ozbeachbabe]

The above metal debris looks like coughpit windows of a plane.

 

[juddles]

"garbage in - garbage out"

Shame on them for not being perfect in investigating such a common occurrence.

 

[JohnK]

Malaysia, Maldives, Madagascar, Mauritius.

Saw them mentioned in an article the other day on MH370.

 

[Foreigner]

Malaysia, Maldives, Madagascar, Mauritius.

Saw them mentioned in an article the other day on MH370.

Mmmmmmmmmm

 

[docjames]

No mention of Mexico?

 

[mannej]

Malaysia, Maldives, Madagascar, Mauritius.

Saw them mentioned in an article the other day on MH370.

Co-incidence perhaps?

 

[Foreigner]

Co-incidence perhaps?

Mighty coincidence

 

[medhead]

"garbage in - garbage out"

Shame on them for not being perfect in investigating such a common occurrence.

This is the key quote:

“While this error in that model had no impact on the way the surface search was conducted, it was important in order to understand over the course of time where debris might wash up and help verify or discount the various items found on beaches, particularly on the west coast of Australia,” ATSB wrote in its report.

So the surface search was not impacted. The model would help verify items, but as we see from the found piece they also actually check multiple identifying features, like serial numbers. We also see that the bit of the plane was actually found. Basically the model is of minor significance.

 

[DrA]

All models are wrong, some are simply less wrong than others.

The kind of models used in this kind of work are drastically simplified in order to actually generate results in a reasonable timeframe. Trying to model the extreme intricacies in these things can take years on a supercomputer. One parameter being slightly off is unlikely to have made a difference. You run hundreds of models with incremental differences in each - if they tend to still converge on a common result, then you have a higher degree of confidence in that result. I expect this is what CSIRO did.

 

[Cynicor]

This is the key quote:



So the surface search was not impacted. The model would help verify items, but as we see from the found piece they also actually check multiple identifying features, like serial numbers. We also see that the bit of the plane was actually found. Basically the model is of minor significance.

I feel that Juddles may have been a tad sarcastic there, but I could be wrong.

 

[basso]

Co-incidence perhaps?

Our brains like finding patters. The plane was flying to PEK, turned around to see PEN, then ended west of PER.......