MH 777 missing - MH370 media statement

[medhead]

In the military and civil aviation worlds people are normally well known if they are particularly good or particularly bad. Byron (formally Ian) Bailey is not particularly well known by anyone as far as I can find out. A group of former fighter pilots queried his claim to being a fighter pilot and did eventually find that he had flown mirages for a short period. After that he became a virtual unknown which in itself is unusual as it really is not such a large industry. That doesn't mean I don't accept his qualifications but that I believe they are no more relevant than that of many others.

I have also sought opinion from a couple of several current B777 (Cathay & Qatar) pilots and suffice to say that they accept that what he is saying is plausible it is extremely unlikely due to the very narrow string of possibilities. (read Swiss Cheese Model. James Reason 1990) Almost everyone believes there are numerous other scenarios that are just as plausible but equally improbable.

For those talking about people having agendas. It was put to me by the former head of training for the RAAF that everyone has agendas. Mr Bailey, the ATSB, The Malaysian government, MAS, the families of the missing, the families of each of the pilots etc.....

The ATSB and the investigators are not perfect but they do have the aircraft accident investigation training required to do the job. Are they specifically B777 pilots? No but I also ask if that is really necessary if they use the training and use appropriate B777 trained/qualified people when technical input is required.

Once again as I stated previously I believe in the integrity of Sir Angus Houston ahead of many of these qualified or unqualified people with other opinions.

Thanks for the detailed explanation.

I don't think I was ever questioning what is technically possible, I agree that a B777 pilot would have a good idea about the physical capabilities of the aircraft. The problem is that a particular state of mind and intention is required before undertaking all those physical steps in the aircraft. That is pure speculation. No one can truly know the state of mind and intention of that one pilot. In fact, they can't even know which of the pilot's mind was involved, or even if it was both of the pilots.

If they were thinking XYZ they could've done ABC and therefore you're searching in the wrong area. That IF doesn't cut it. In fact it is probably more If Bailey was thinking XYZ then Bailey would do ABC. There is a big disconnect.

 

[JessicaTam]

Some more debris has been found, potentially from MH370.

Potential MH370 Debris Found on Island off African Coast - ABC News

Aircraft wreckage potentially from missing Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 has been found on an island off the east African coast, an Australian official said Friday.
Transport Minister Darren Chester, who oversees the search for the Boeing 777 than vanished in 2014 with 239 people on board, said a "piece of aircraft debris" was found on Pemba Island off the coast of Tanzania.

 

[moa999]

And a certain 'talking' blog has another rant.

Reality is I think it's pretty clear the plane crashed and broke up.. Unless the black box washes up I doubt there is much to be gained from other wreckage, and weather and technology issues continue to frustrate the main search

 

[whatmeworry]

And a certain 'talking' blog has another rant.

Reality is I think it's pretty clear the plane crashed and broke up.. Unless the black box washes up I doubt there is much to be gained from other wreckage, and weather and technology issues continue to frustrate the main search

The plane could have broken up at the bottom of the ocean because of water pressure.

 

[marki]

As investigators prepare to concede defeat in their search for Malaysia Airlines Flight 370, some scientists are pondering the unthinkable: they’ve been looking in the wrong place for more than two years.

Bloomberg news : Have MH370 Hunters Been Looking in the Wrong Place for Two Years? http://bloom.bg/29P6k6K

The suggestion is interesting that someone glided the aircraft to its final demise. It's an interesting piece well worth a read by people interested in the subject matt

 

[Mal]

As investigators prepare to concede defeat in their search for Malaysia Airlines Flight 370, some scientists are pondering the unthinkable: they’ve been looking in the wrong place for more than two years.

Bloomberg news : Have MH370 Hunters Been Looking in the Wrong Place for Two Years? Have MH370 Hunters Been Looking in the Wrong Place for Two Years? - Bloomberg

The suggestion is interesting that someone glided the aircraft to its final demise. It's an interesting piece well worth a read by people interested in the subject matt

Again more speculation. How wide do you cast the net? How much money do you spend?

 

[marki]

An interesting article and relevant to discussions, My thoughts are It's not all speculation. Lack of info and facts are not all translating into speculation. There is also neglected data that so far the search has not been based on. My view is it would be a shame to give up now. A lot of time and money is also required. Although casting a wide net, I would be much less harsh in my assessment than just saying more simply "more speculation".
This will be very a important pivotal role for aviation to find out the reason behind the dissappearance.

Again more speculation. How wide do you cast the net? How much money do you spend?

 

[tgh]

It seems be the case that some participants have a level of interest in not finding the cause..

I must be prescient , I said from the start that it was the perfect crime….

 

[JohnK]

Again more speculation. How wide do you cast the net? How much money do you spend?

There is more to this than we know. Maybe we are not meant to know.

 

[Awesom Andy]

The current search location is only the "most likely" location based on a few facts and a lot of assumptions. It's wrong to say that they've been looking at the wrong place - they have simply decided to search with the higher probability sites after some educated guesses.

 

[straitman]

Again more speculation. How wide do you cast the net? How much money do you spend?

An interesting article and relevant to discussions, My thoughts are It's not all speculation. Lack of info and facts are not all translating into speculation. There is also neglected data that so far the search has not been based on. My view is it would be a shame to give up now. A lot of time and money is also required. Although casting a wide net, I would be much less harsh in my assessment than just saying more simply "more speculation".
This will be very a important pivotal role for aviation to find out the reason behind the dissappearance.

I agree with Mal on this.

Whilst it's a shame to give up just how far do you go without any facts? IMHO what he is saying is speculation and has no substantive basis.

I wonder if he has an agenda or why we have not heard of him sooner or why do we give this theory any more credence than those from every or 'expert' out there?.

Why is it so pivotal to find out the reason?

 

[marki]

So we agree to disagree, ........its a important to find the facts behind this mystery, thats why finding the black box will "maybe indicate" the reason why such a large aircraft can go missing, subsequently veering completely of course. Its pivotal because big planes like the 777 don't go missing just like that without a very good plausible reason. One that has been eluding everyone of those experts out there as u say.

I agree with Mal on this.

Whilst it's a shame to give up just how far do you go without any facts? IMHO what he is saying is speculation and has no substantive basis.

I wonder if he has an agenda or why we have not heard of him sooner or why do we give this theory any more credence than those from every or 'expert' out there?.

Why is it so pivotal to find out the reason?

 

[medhead]

There is no great need to know why it happened, beyond morbid fascination by the public. Vastly more important is to work out how to make sure an aircraft doesn't go missing again even if it goes off course.

 

[Quickstatus]

While the reason for the dissapearance is inconclusive, I hoping that the industry can implement a realtime tracking system that is robust and compulsory for all operators.

We can track all manner of moving objects these days and the technology exists today. The main impediment has been cost (according to the airline - however this is disingenuous because the airline Im sure would rather the $10 find its way into its pockets than be spent on a tracking system that may never need to be used). However I would be very happy for such a system to be implemented with the cost borne by the consumer.

 

[medhead]

While the reason for the dissapearance is inconclusive, I hoping that the industry can implement a realtime tracking system that is robust and compulsory for all operators.

We can track all manner of moving objects these days and the technology exists today. The main impediment has been cost (according to the airline - however this is disingenuous because the airline Im sure would rather the $10 find its way into its pockets than be spent on a tracking system that may never need to be used). However I would be very happy for such a system to be implemented with the cost borne by the consumer.

And it seems the engine systems already have some capacity to track location if the airlines pay. Surely it should be fairly easy to turn that into active detection of variation from course, followed by active tracking and alert to [someone].

 

[Quickstatus]

And it seems the engine systems already have some capacity to track location if the airlines pay. Surely it should be fairly easy to turn that into active detection of variation from course, followed by active tracking and alert to [someone].

They may be moving toward an automatic tracking system if you believe the media.
MH370: New satellite plane tracking system agreed - BBC News

 

[MEL_Traveller]

There is no great need to know why it happened, beyond morbid fascination by the public. Vastly more important is to work out how to make sure an aircraft doesn't go missing again even if it goes off course.

while we can still achieve a legacy for those who lost their lives by introducing tracking systems going forward, I think we still owe it to those who died to find them and determine what happened. it may also assist with closure for the relatives.

there may be other reasons to find the wreckage, not least of which might be to assign liability and responsibility.

if we had jus given up on air France we may have missed valuable lessons.

 

[RAM]

Having been 'exposed' to a number of situations that will never see the light of day in the media - I suspect (but cannot prove) that there is MUCH more to the disappearance.

Perhaps to the point of populations advocating serious military action - it appears we may never know.

What I do know with 100% accuracy is that, unfortunately "Yes, Minister" is more non-Fiction than Fiction.

If some person/group in power decide the public don't "need to know" and the repercussions are serious enough - then the public most of the time will never be any the wiser.

Donors and politicians can lead to less than sub-optimal outcomes for the wider population.

 

[whatmeworry]

Having been 'exposed' to a number of situations that will never see the light of day in the media - I suspect (but cannot prove) that there is MUCH more to the disappearance.

Perhaps to the point of populations advocating serious military action - it appears we may never know.

What I do know with 100% accuracy is that, unfortunately "Yes, Minister" is more non-Fiction than Fiction.

If some person/group in power decide the public don't "need to know" and the repercussions are serious enough - then the public most of the time will never be any the wiser.

Donors and politicians can lead to less than sub-optimal outcomes for the wider population.

What happens if the donor is PM?

 

[tgh]

What happens if the donor is PM?

I think that is exactly RAM's point

…zilch..nada.. nuffing….