New Zealand Reports of the Virus Spread

[burmans]

I was looking at the fully vaccinated rate which is behind WA…. Sigh.

Yes, would agree with that but equally the late start and hard ramp up would mean that many were not in a position to get their second dose so not sure how much you can extrapolate the second dose rate to date. Not up on latest recommendations on second dose in NZ, I know they were sticking hard to the minimum three week period and then there was talk late Julyish about whether to increase but unware of the outcome.

I do think they will shoot past WA and QLD fairly quickly but the real question is around whether they start to catch up on the rest of OZ.

 

[justinbrett]

Yes, would agree with that but equally the late start and hard ramp up would mean that many were not in a position to get their second dose so not sure how much you can extrapolate the second dose rate to date. Not up on latest recommendations on second dose in NZ, I know they were sticking hard to the minimum three week period and then there was talk late Julyish about whether to increase but unware of the outcome.

I do think they will shoot past WA and QLD fairly quickly but the real question is around whether they start to catch up on the rest of OZ.

It was moved to 6 weeks as I posted earlier

News

Find all the latest news and updates from the Ministry of Health - Manatū Hauora.

www.health.govt.nz

 

[burmans]

It was moved to 6 weeks as I posted earlier

News

Find all the latest news and updates from the Ministry of Health - Manatū Hauora.

www.health.govt.nz

Thanks, had an idea that was the case but good to have confirmed.

 

[justinbrett]

The NZ vs Australia vaccine rates will be interesting to watch, Australia just 5-6 weeks away from having 100% of vaccines in country - so will just be a matter of people stepping up to get jabbed (and people to jab them).

Assuming NZ solve their supply issues they'll be in the same position. But they don't have the "get jabbed or stay in lockdown" trigger that NSW & VIC have. As I said, it will be interesting.

 

[burmans]

NZ are due to get all their vaccine by end October too so yes likely to be around incentives. We will see but suspect these aren’t far away.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

NZ also secured 250k Pfizer jabs from Spain. Purchase not a swap. Any excess from existing orders will be sent (given?) to Pacific nations. A second purchase/swap is in negotiations.

NZ are jabbing at 1.5% per day, which I believe is higher than NSW's peak rate (as a percentage of eligible)

 

[justinbrett]

NZ also secured 250k Pfizer jabs from Spain. Purchase not a swap. Any excess from existing orders will be sent (given?) to Pacific nations. A second purchase/swap is in negotiations.

NZ are jabbing at 1.5% per day, which I believe is higher than NSW's peak rate (as a percentage of eligible)

NSW (6.5 million) peak was 148,297 which is about 2.25%.

1.5% for Australia (20 million) would be 300,000 nationally which is around what we sit on for weekdays.

 

[Kiwi_Flyer]

Interesting graphic to actually show how many have booked. A bit weird that some haven't booked their second dose.

1) Until the recent opening up to self-booking, generally the 2nd jab was only booked after receiving the 1st jab. There are still people with bookings under the previous referral system.

2) There are likely to be some data issues where people have double-booked to get an earlier slot but haven't cancelled the existing booking.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

NSW (6.5 million) peak was 148,297 which is about 2.25%.

1.5% for Australia (20 million) would be 300,000 nationally which is around what we sit on for weekdays.

I’m not sure whether the NZ media was inferring % first dose or % both dose

I gather the NSW % you calculated is the one-day peak for both dose

 

[justinbrett]

I’m not sure whether the NZ media was inferring % first dose or % both dose

I gather the NSW % you calculated is the one-day peak for both dose

I think both metrics are total doses regardless of sequence - which is the better metric in terms of supply and delivery.

I think the NZ rate is a little higher than 1.5% of 16+ considering they report 12+. Either way they are going fast, but not by a significant margin. It will be interesting to see what happens with Australian rates now supply is not an issue and it's open to 12+; at the moment it's not really a fair comparison.

 

[Princess Fiona]

So I wonder what will the decision be from NZ today about the AKL Level 4 Lockdown?

Cases are decreasing but seem to have a long tail and every day at least some of them have community exposure when infectious.

 

[justinbrett]

NZ level 3 is pretty much the same as SYD & MEL lockdowns, so not a huge risk to proceed.

If they come to the realisation that AKL will have to stay in lockdown until vaccination rates improve, then it's consistent to what we've done in Australia.

 

[Princess Fiona]

NZ level 3 is pretty much the same as SYD & MEL lockdowns, so not a huge risk to proceed.

If they come to the realisation that AKL will have to stay in lockdown until vaccination rates improve, then it's consistent to what we've done in Australia.

There are 3 cases today that are being counted in AKL but are located outside the Level 4 lockdown area for AKL.
I imagine they will be looking closely if any spread from those.

 

[justinbrett]

A massive spike today in NZ - 45 cases

Auckland Covid cases - move to level 2 would 'add fuel to the fire', says modeller

Chris Hipkins: 'We've still got to hold our nerve here'.

www.nzherald.co.nz

There are a "sobering" 45 new Covid cases in the community today, including 12 unlinked "mystery" cases.

Director-general of health Dr Ashley Bloomfield said it was the largest number of cases the country had recorded in some time. All of today's cases are in Auckland.

A total of 33 are household or close contacts of existing cases and weren't infectious in the community.

"In some sense they were expected," Bloomfield said.

Covid Response Minister Chris Hipkins said today's number of cases was "sobering" and said no one would be celebrating.

 

[burmans]

Well that has confirmed that the only way out of this is vaccination and Covid normal not Covid zero. Probably good for my desire to get back to NZ at Xmas.

 

[Princess Fiona]

NZ press conference later today. There are now two cases outside Auckland. Waikato in Hamilton and Raglan.

 

[Princess Fiona]

The NZ PM has confirmed that they are no longer going to eliminate Delta.
Phased relaxation of restrictions until 90% vaccination target met, currently 48% fully vaccinated.
ABC news

Hard to know how this will affect TT bubble.
Given no real cases in Australia outside NSW/ACT/VIC.

 

[kyle]

The NZ PM has confirmed that they are no longer going to eliminate Delta.
Phased relaxation of restrictions until 90% vaccination target met, currently 48% fully vaccinated.
ABC news

Hard to know how this will affect TT bubble.
Given no real cases in Australia outside NSW/ACT/VIC.

Reading the NZ Herald, that phased reopening roadmap is even worse than Dan's roadmap and I thought Dan's was bad. At least Dan's one has intermediate steps laid out with the vac rates.

 

[jakeseven7]

The NZ PM has confirmed that they are no longer going to eliminate Delta.

Finally some common sense.

Great, NZ can join the ‘common sense states of ANZ’ members now include NSW, VIC, ACT and NZ! SA is trying to apply but a little nervous

This probably is great news for the TT ‘bubble’ or whatever replaces it.

 

[burmans]

Its not a race, but then again maybe it is?