NM's 2,000th post?? (No) Prize up for grabs

[oz_mark]

Hey not fair. There is no hidden meaning there, only what you guys read into it.

Need I explain what an abacus is used for? It is used for calculating complex mathematical problems. Occassionally the beads get stuck or are hard to move therefore requiring the abacus to be greased so that it functions accordingly.

Don't worry, I am not going to ask what brand of lubricant you use.

 

[JohnK]

... All these offT threads is starting to do my head in :cry: :?

So to cure the headache create another offT thread. :roll:

 

[JohnK]

Don't forget the deadline is when NM reaches 1900 posts so get your guesses in pronto. Not many predictions received so far including JohnK.

• 
  Lindsay Wilson____17/02/06 @ 2:00pm (QLD time)
  MetroAir_________17/02/06 @ 8:00pm (QLD time)
  Kiwi Flyer________03/03/06 @ 3:00pm (KIWI time)
  odoherty________13/03/06 @ 7:00pm (Dublin time?) :?
  BlacKnox________19/03/06 @ 12:00noon (QLD time)
  Mal_____________27/04/06 @ 7:00pm (AEST)

 

[oz_mark]

Don't forget the deadline is when NM reaches 1900 posts so get your guesses in pronto. Not many predictions received so far including JohnK.

• 
  Lindsay Wilson____17/02/06 @ 2:00pm (QLD time)
  MetroAir_________17/02/06 @ 8:00pm (QLD time)
  Kiwi Flyer________03/03/06 @ 3:00pm (KIWI time)
  odoherty________13/03/06 @ 7:00pm (Dublin time?) :?
  BlacKnox________19/03/06 @ 12:00noon (QLD time)
  Mal_____________27/04/06 @ 7:00pm (AEST)

100 posts to go before the deadline. Plenty of time (unless something strange happens on the way....)

 

[JohnK]

100 posts to go before the deadline. Plenty of time (unless something strange happens on the way....)

Stranger things have happened. :shock:

 

[Kiwi Flyer]

Like what?

 

[JohnK]

Need a reminder do ya Kiwi Flyer :roll:

 

[serfty]

Need a reminder do ya Kiwi Flyer :roll:

Wot?

Wacky Wednesday mk II ? ... I intend to write up my notes before I connect. :?

 

[JohnK]

Need a reminder do ya Kiwi Flyer :roll:

Wot?

Wacky Wednesday mk II ? ... I intend to write up my notes before I connect. :?

Might be a good idea if you still need your job. :roll:

 

[JohnK]

It has been quite today so you may get away with it.

 

[oz_mark]

Don't forget the deadline is when NM reaches 1900 posts so get your guesses in pronto. Not many predictions received so far including JohnK.

Are you planning to have a guess JohnK?

 

[JohnK]

Hmm... 97 posts to go.

Sure I will be having a guess. 8)

 

[oz_mark]

28/02/2006 08:00 p.m.

 

[serfty]

Don't forget the deadline is when NM reaches 1900 posts so get your guesses in pronto. Not many predictions received so far including JohnK. ...

ok, I'll now reveal my mathematical analysis and give my predicted time for NM's 2000th Post. :wink:

• NM made his 1000th post at 9:22pm on Oct 27, 2005.
• His 1803rd post was made at around 4pm yesterday.
• That's 1803 posts in 103 Days and 17 Hours.
• He is averaging about 7¾ posts per day.
• If that rate continues, NM's 2000 post (or 2 KiloPost) would be at 11:17am on Sunday 5th Mar 2006.
• However, Mr Mobbs' overall AFF average posting rate is 3.4 posts per day.
• There is currently a good gap between predictions around this time.
• Taking a combination of these factors into account, I predict NM's 2000th post will be at 4:30pm on Thursday 9th March, 2006 (AEDST). :idea:

   Lindsay Wilson   17/02/06 @  2:00pm (QLD time)
   MetroAir         17/02/06 @  8:00pm (QLD time)
   Kiwi Flyer       03/03/06 @  3:00pm (KIWI time)
-> serfty           09/03/06 @  4:30pm (Vic Time)
   odoherty         13/03/06 @  7:00pm (Dublin time?)  
   BlacKnox         19/03/06 @ 12:00pm (QLD time)
   oz_mark          28/03/06 @  8:00pm (oz_mark time)
   Mal              27/04/06 @  7:00pm (AEST)

It will happen while I am in the SYD T1 F lounge awaiting my QF29 Chariot to HKG & LHR in NM's recomended/favorite J seat, 23D 8)

 

[Kiwi Flyer]

have you allowed for discussions on dark-suckers, metric time and the b-s?

 

[serfty]

have you allowed for discussions on dark-suckers, metric time and the b-s?

I believe such discussions have already occurred within the sample period. :wink:

 

[Damien]

ok, I'll now reveal my mathematical analysis and give my predicted time for NM's 2000th Post. :wink:

I've given serfty's mathematical analysis some thought and decided to ignore it. My prediction is 5 March 2006, at 4:29pm AEST.

 

[oz_mark]

oz_mark 28/03/06 @ 8:00pm (ox_mark time)

Who or what is ox_mark time?

 

[serfty]

oz_mark 28/03/06 @ 8:00pm (ox_mark time)

Who or what is ox_mark time?

My Keyboard must have temporarily jumped 2cm to the left. :?

Should have been oz_mark time.

 

[Kiwi Flyer]

have you allowed for discussions on dark-suckers, metric time and the b-s?

I believe such discussions have already occurred within the sample period. :wink:

So you are extrapolating they will continue at the same rate ...

Much as I'd like your analysis to be roughly correct (since it is similar to my guess), I think you forgot to adjust for NM's holiday = less time posting.