Oz Federal Election 2013 - Discussion and Comments

[Pukka]

I'm pretty sure the news today told me some business confidence index (or other) had actually improved. Perhaps they're talking to the wrong business owners.

Well they weren't talking to me and I work in an environment that is fairly well protected as people have insurance and therefore subsidized treatment etc As far as I know general retailers, restaurants etc and anyone that is involved with discretionary spend is suffering big time.

 

[serfty]

Right and now they're demanding Rudd set a date.

No, they are "demanding" Rudd call an Election (officially).

---

If any don't like political advertising I suggest they stay away from the TV this coming week ...

Liberal big guns take aim at Kevin Rudd | Herald Sun

...

• Laurie Oakes
• Herald Sun
• July 12, 2013 9:21PM

THE Liberals have spent a couple of weeks getting Kevin Rudd's range. Now they're about to open up on him with an artillery barrage.

A big-budget Coalition ad campaign to be launched tomorrow will include a positive element - Tony Abbott talking about his team and his plan, and stressing strength and stability.

The commercial is made with high production values. It has tested well with focus groups. Abbott looks and sounds good.
But, as a senior Liberal said to me today: "We both know what works in politics, Laurie."

By that, he meant a negative ad that will alternate with the positive one will have a greater impact. And he is almost certainly right. ...

... the calculation behind this ad is that he can't run away from his first term as prime minister. As a voice-over tells viewers that Rudd left a trail of disaster, a list appears on screen.

"Fact: Kevin Rudd was borrowing $100 million every day.

"Fact: Now we have a $254 billion debt.

"Fact: He wasted up to $8 billion dollars on school hall rip-offs.

"Fact: He was the architect of the roof batts disaster.

"Fact: In 2008 he dismantled our border protection polices and now 45,000 boat people have flooded in.

"Fact: He attacked our mining industry with a super profits tax that failed.

"Fact: He did a backflip on the carbon emissions trading scheme and supported the world's biggest carbon tax.

"Fact: With five Budget deficits and the carbon ta,x Kevin Rudd and Labor have driven up the cost of living.

"Fact: Now he's divided the Labor Party again with one-third of cabinet ministers refusing to work with him."

According to a Liberal front-bencher, focus group feedback shows "boats, waste, deficit and debt work best".

Labor will argue about the accuracy of the list of alleged facts but to do so it will have to engage with it. The Liberal advertising launch signals the real start of the Abbott v Rudd battle. ...

 

[medhead]

No, they are "demanding" Rudd call an Election (officially).]

That's not what Turnbull said on qanda. I haven't seen anything different from any other coalition sound bites.

 

[serfty]

That's not what Turnbull said on qanda. I haven't seen anything different from any other coalition sound bites.

Are you reading between the lines ... ?

 

[quokka77]

Gillard's early naming of the date was an unusual tactical decision to attempt to take some heat out of the issue of naming the date. As an experiment in political tactics I would say it failed.

Yes, there was some certainty for all involved, and it took some of the heat out of the constant calls for an early election. However, there is a reason every previous Government chose to keep the election date close to its chest: if the Government determines the date to suit its own agenda (and its standing in the polls) it can effectively leverage the power of incumbency (such as the current fuzzy ads reminding people about superannuation, paid for by the public purse) and keep the Opposition guessing.

So far, Kevin Rudd has managed to hold this particular trump card and not look desperate (Howard did start to look a little desperate by November 2007). Assuming a minimum 33 day campaign, we are only 9 days over the earliest possible dates at which writs issued for an election would have been possible (without a separate half Senate election at considerable expense and annoyance). All those getting into a froth over the date should probably remember that all previous Governments have kept their powder dry, and any election between August and late October /early November will be pretty much a stock standard term: true tragics can read more here... Antony Green's Election Blog: 2013 Federal Election Calendar (spot the gratuitous Dorothy Dixer by yours truly in the comments section of the linked page).

 

[quokka77]

Will be interesting to see what effect the negative ads have on Rudd. Also whether any of the outgoing Gillard ministers decide to continue the Gillard-Rudd war into retirement, and offer some more free character references / leaks.

The return to Rudd has certainly had the effect of neutralizing some of the Coalition's attacks on Gillard (back-stabber, liar, architecture of the big new carbon tax etc). There is lots of dirt around to fling at Rudd, not least the inevitable sound-bites from members of his own party calling him dysfunctional, megalomanic etc. I would personally prefer to see a more positive rhetoric from both sides, but as serfty's quote from Laurie Oakes' story notes, the negative stuff seems to do the business. I think the Coalition is now paying 1.36 (up from 1.05), and their price seems more ascendant than even the greenback. Let see what effect the Coalition's war-chest has on the situation in the next fortnight.

Anyone up for a little friendly competition? Guess the date of the election... I'll take 31 August (with the winner to dash off overseas and punch out shirtless, high rep, low interval, cardio sets with Putin at the G20 early September in Russia).

 

[HarryB]

Right and the difference between setting a date and announcing a date is what, exactly? Neither involves calling an election. Now they're demanding Rudd set a date, despite the previous attacks on Gillard for the issues you mention.

I think there is a maximum amount of time prior to an election date that the writs for the election can be issued, please correctly if I am wrong. The idea being that there is only a certain length an "official" campaign can be held. So announcing the date as an intended Election Day, while not officially and Election Day until the writs are issued, is as good as you're going to get. But as amaroo suggests, the opposition have been calling for an election ever since Tony Abbott lost the battle to convince the independents to help him form government.

 

[Skyring]

Will be interesting to see what effect the negative ads have on Rudd. Also whether any of the outgoing Gillard ministers decide to continue the Gillard-Rudd war into retirement, and offer some more free character references / leaks.

Keen analysis, Quokka! I'll hold fire on the election date comp. Rudd is keeping everyone guessing, including me. 31 August seems as good a date as any.

I'm torn between an early election, where Rudd gambles on going to the G20 as a triumphant, validated, vindicated leader, and a late election in October/November where Rudd is guaranteed a seat at the September event - no spin of the wheel required. I think he'd also like to take TA along as a sort of second-class passenger who doesn't get to sit in with the big boys, wear the freebie fur hat and have his photo taken.

There must be a battalion of strategists yelling at Rudd to go early while the gloss is on the cherry etc. He is popular because he's defeated Gillard, which most Australians wanted. Those who wanted Gillard gone at any cost are very happy that Rudd has done the deed. However, I wouldn't give Rudd the credit for destroying Gillard - that was Abbott engaging every day in Parliament and the media while Rudd manoeuvred in the shadows. He merely waited his moment to kick her when she was down.

Now, Rudd is doing his best to portray Abbott as "Captain Negative", but to do that is to mount his own negative attack campaign. Hypocrisy is not something Rudd sees as applying to him, but I'm sure that the irony will not be lost on everyone else.

And Abbott doesn't have to be positive. Oppositions don't win government by being positive, unless the government is so corrupt and decrepit - are you listening, Billy McMahon and Paul Keating? - that nobody is going to vote for them anyway. The big winner for Abbott is to ask Australians if they want three more years of bad government like Rudd's do-nothing first term or Gillard and her string of disasters, underlined all the way by infighting and treachery.

As noted, a negative campaign will mean that Rudd will have to engage with the criticism, and anything he comes up with is going to sound false and hollow. Rudd simply cannot accept criticism. He either ignores it or spouts a string of platitudes. And then he goes home and kicks the staffers once he's safely out of camera range.

Will there be leaks and internal criticisms? There has to be. Not that any true Labor stalwart will set out to undermine Rudd the way Rudd treacherously undermined Gillard in 2010. Instead there will be unguarded comments, inconsistencies in the message, leaks from disgruntled staffers. The journos will be all on the lookout for anything like that. They all want to be Laurie Oakes, you see.

I'm guessing that Rudd will go late. He wants to make sure of his G20 goodies, but more than that, Rudd never does anything quickly. He sends out flashing directives to the workers to prepare reports and write speeches, and these are duly delivered but never acted upon. Rudd's focus has shifted in the meantime and fresh orders are sent out with flash priority. There's always something to distract Rudd. Some brave new plan, some fire that must be p*issed out, some photo op with a rockstar.

 

[HarryB]

I think Rudd and his advisors will have a strategy already sorted for the obvious shots coming from the LNP, how good (or otherwise) that strategy is remains to be seen. The biggest single advantage he has is that he isn't Julia Gillard, as you say, but he also isn't Tony Abbott who remains hugely unpopular. If Labor can convince the electorate that the LNP are using the obvious attacks as a method to deflect analysis of their policies and of Abbott himself then there is potential for them to backfire. Everyone remembers what Rudd's own party said about him but the punters, it seems, don't care as rightly or wrongly he is very popular and is a much better performer under pressure than Abbott by a country mile. The electorate don't give two s***s if he kicks the staff when the cameras are turned off.

 

[drsmithy]

Well I wish he would set a date because the uncertainty is killing the economy.

Utter rubbish. Cold hard reality is what's killing the economy.

People have just stopped spending money every business owner I speak to agrees.

People haven't stopped spending because they don't know whether the election to choose between two largely indistinguishable parties will be in two months or four months, they've stopped spending because the economic problems that have been overwhelming the rest of the world are finally starting to arrive on our shores.

 

[Pukka]

Utter rubbish. Cold hard reality is what's killing the economy.


People haven't stopped spending because they don't know whether the election to choose between two largely indistinguishable parties will be in two months or four months, they've stopped spending because the economic problems that have been overwhelming the rest of the world are finally starting to arrive on our shores.

Yes I agree with the economic problems they're obvious but I really don't think the uncertainty about who's going to be running the country and what cuts etc they're going to make is helping.

 

[amaroo]

Yes I agree with the economic problems they're obvious but I really don't think the uncertainty about who's going to be running the country and what cuts etc they're going to make is helping.

Shame the ALP drained the tank before it really hits.

Silly buggers!

 

[Pukka]

Will be interesting to see what effect the negative ads have on Rudd. Also whether any of the outgoing Gillard ministers decide to continue the Gillard-Rudd war into retirement, and offer some more free character references / leaks.

The return to Rudd has certainly had the effect of neutralizing some of the Coalition's attacks on Gillard (back-stabber, liar, architecture of the big new carbon tax etc). There is lots of dirt around to fling at Rudd, not least the inevitable sound-bites from members of his own party calling him dysfunctional, megalomanic etc. I would personally prefer to see a more positive rhetoric from both sides, but as serfty's quote from Laurie Oakes' story notes, the negative stuff seems to do the business. I think the Coalition is now paying 1.36 (up from 1.05), and their price seems more ascendant than even the greenback. Let see what effect the Coalition's war-chest has on the situation in the next fortnight.

Anyone up for a little friendly competition? Guess the date of the election... I'll take 31 August (with the winner to dash off overseas and punch out shirtless, high rep, low interval, cardio sets with Putin at the G20 early September in Russia).

I'll take September 21 to allow Rudd and his hair drier a guaranteed trip to the G20

 

[Pukka]

Shame the ALP drained the tank before it really hits.

Silly buggers!

Who knows maybe super Kev has found some extra money to dish out another load of $900 cheques before the election. I'm sure he could pay for it with some sort of levy

 

[wmetz]

The downturn in the economy can now be blamed purely on QLD. With massive sacking the economy is now the worst in the country.

And QLD cant sign up for gonski, as we been closing schools. U cant close schools and same time argue for improved school access and funding for students.

And worst of all, still havnt got that second casino, especially when it can be built next to a major educational facility, that get many overseas students.

It should be able to attract their high math skills at Texas Hold-in poker. That will help the economy. Lucky dont need to worry about their social wellbeing.

 

[BadgerBoi]

Who knows maybe super Kev has found some extra money to dish out another load of $900 cheques before the election. I'm sure he could pay for it with some sort of levy

No, that money has been set aside to promote Tony's next best-seller.

 

[drron]

Right and the difference between setting a date and announcing a date is what, exactly? Neither involves calling an election. Now they're demanding Rudd set a date, despite the previous attacks on Gillard for the issues you mention.

No he asked for an election to be called which means not just setting a date but actually issuing the writs for an election.So here is TA asking JG to call an election for August 3 just before she was rolled.August 3 was the earliest possible date to hold an election if the writs were issued that day.
So a very big difference.

 

[quokka77]

Whoever wins, don't expect a surplus without some serious revision of pre election commitments. Maybe the Coalition would opt to defer the full roll out of the Disability scheme, or shelve his own very generous maternity leave plans. I think Labor reelected would be more likely to revisit the mining tax. Personally I think we need to increase the tax take... 2.5%gst increase, freeze the income tax brackets for 5 years, that sort of thing.

 

[quokka77]

Obviously any gst hike would likely cost the Government which introduced it heavily, even if foreshadowed prior to an election (yeah right).

 

[dug]

Except that Mr Slippy's $900 to pay back was in addition to the $17400 he had already paid back.

The issue is that Slipper is not permitted to pay back the $900 under the "Minchin protocol", as Abbott was permitted to do to avoid referral to the AFP for inadvertently slugging the taxpayer in promoting "Battlelines".

Instead Slipper is being prosecuted by the AFP cheered on all the way by Abbott, Brandis and co.

Why one benefits (Abbott), and not the other (Slipper)? Smells of hypocrisy right?

BTW, the only reason Abbott is desperate for an election now is for fear someone in the know on Ashbygate will spill their guts to protect themselves, bringing the whole rotten show down around him.